931 resultados para Failure Probability
Resumo:
Työn tarkoituksena oli kerätä käyttövarmuustietoa savukaasulinjasta kahdelta suomalaiselta sellutehtaalta niiden käyttöönotosta aina tähän päivään asti. Käyttövarmuustieto koostuu luotettavuustiedoista sekä kunnossapitotiedoista. Kerätyn tiedon avulla on mahdollista kuvata tarkasti laitoksen käyttövarmuutta seuraavilla tunnusluvuilla: suunnittelemattomien häiriöiden lukumäärä ja korjausajat, laitteiden seisokkiaika, vikojen todennäköisyys ja korjaavan kunnossapidon kustannukset suhteessa savukaasulinjan korjaavan kunnossapidon kokonaiskustannuksiin. Käyttövarmuustiedon keräysmetodi on esitelty. Savukaasulinjan kriittisten laitteiden määrittelyyn käytetty metodi on yhdistelmä kyselytutkimuksesta ja muunnellusta vian vaikutus- ja kriittisyysanalyysistä. Laitteiden valitsemiskriteerit lopulliseen kriittisyysanalyysiin päätettiin käyttövarmuustietojen sekä kyselytutkimuksen perusteella. Kriittisten laitteiden määrittämisen tarkoitus on löytää savukaasulinjasta ne laitteet, joiden odottamaton vikaantuminen aiheuttaa vakavimmat seuraukset savukaasulinjan luotettavuuteen, tuotantoon, turvallisuuteen, päästöihin ja kustannuksiin. Tiedon avulla rajoitetut kunnossapidon resurssit voidaan suunnata oikein. Kriittisten laitteiden määrittämisen tuloksena todetaan, että kolme kriittisintä laitetta savukaasulinjassa ovat molemmille sellutehtaille yhteisesti: savukaasupuhaltimet, laahakuljettimet sekä ketjukuljettimet. Käyttövarmuustieto osoittaa, että laitteiden luotettavuus on tehdaskohtaista, mutta periaatteessa samat päälinjat voidaan nähdä suunnittelemattomien vikojen todennäköisyyttä esittävissä kuvissa. Kustannukset, jotka esitetään laitteen suunnittelemattomien kunnossapitokustannusten suhteena savukaasulinjan kokonaiskustannuksiin, noudattelevat hyvin pitkälle luotettavuuskäyrää, joka on laskettu laitteen seisokkiajan suhteena käyttötunteihin. Käyttövarmuustiedon keräys yhdistettynä kriittisten laitteiden määrittämiseen mahdollistavat ennakoivan kunnossapidon oikean kohdistamisen ja ajoittamisen laitteiston elinaikana siten, että luotettavuus- ja kustannustehokkuusvaatimukset saavutetaan.
Resumo:
Elevated serum phosphorus, calcium, and fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) levels are associated with cardiovascular disease in chronic renal disease. This study evaluated the effects of sucroferric oxyhydroxide (PA21), a new iron-based phosphate binder, versus lanthanum carbonate (La) and sevelamer carbonate (Se), on serum FGF23, phosphorus, calcium, and intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) concentrations, and the development of vascular calcification in adenine-induced chronic renal failure (CRF) rats. After induction of CRF, renal function was significantly impaired in all groups: uremic rats developed severe hyperphosphatemia, and serum iPTH increased significantly. All uremic rats (except controls) then received phosphate binders for 4 weeks. Hyperphosphatemia and increased serum iPTH were controlled to a similar extent in all phosphate binder-treatment groups. Only sucroferric oxyhydroxide was associated with significantly decreased FGF23. Vascular calcifications of the thoracic aorta were decreased by all three phosphate binders. Calcifications were better prevented at the superior part of the thoracic and abdominal aorta in the PA21 treated rats. In adenine-induced CRF rats, sucroferric oxyhydroxide was as effective as La and Se in controlling hyperphosphatemia, secondary hyperparathyroidism, and vascular calcifications. The role of FGF23 in calcification remains to be confirmed.
Resumo:
Työn tavoitteena oli löytää tarkka menetelmä kampiakselin vaurioitumisriskin laskentaan vertailemalla eri laskentamenetelmiä. Lopuksi suoritettiin simulointi monikappalejärjestelmälle käyttäen elastisia malleja todellisista rakenteista. Simulointiohjelmana käytettiin AVL:n kehittämää Excite:ia.
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We present a case study of a patient with pure autonomic failure who was successfully treated with ambulatory norepinephrine (NE) infusions over a 9-year-period of time before death occurred unexpectedly. Given this patient's response to the NE infusion treatment, we discuss the option of ambulatory NE infusions as a treatment for severe orthostatic hypotension that is refractory to common treatments.
Resumo:
AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Exposure of pancreatic beta cells to cytokines released by islet-infiltrating immune cells induces alterations in gene expression, leading to impaired insulin secretion and apoptosis in the initial phases of type 1 diabetes. Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) are a new class of transcripts participating in the development of many diseases. As little is known about their role in insulin-secreting cells, this study aimed to evaluate their contribution to beta cell dysfunction. METHODS: The expression of lncRNAs was determined by microarray in the MIN6 beta cell line exposed to proinflammatory cytokines. The changes induced by cytokines were further assessed by real-time PCR in islets of control and NOD mice. The involvement of selected lncRNAs modified by cytokines was assessed after their overexpression in MIN6 cells and primary islet cells. RESULTS: MIN6 cells were found to express a large number of lncRNAs, many of which were modified by cytokine treatment. The changes in the level of selected lncRNAs were confirmed in mouse islets and an increase in these lncRNAs was also seen in prediabetic NOD mice. Overexpression of these lncRNAs in MIN6 and mouse islet cells, either alone or in combination with cytokines, favoured beta cell apoptosis without affecting insulin production or secretion. Furthermore, overexpression of lncRNA-1 promoted nuclear translocation of nuclear factor of κ light polypeptide gene enhancer in B cells 1 (NF-κB). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study shows that lncRNAs are modulated during the development of type 1 diabetes in NOD mice, and that their overexpression sensitises beta cells to apoptosis, probably contributing to their failure during the initial phases of the disease.
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In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) is crucial. As emergency physicians fear missing this potential life-threatening condition, PE tends to be over-investigated, exposing patients to unnecessary risks and uncertain benefit in terms of outcome. The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) is an eight-item block of clinical criteria that can identify patients who can safely be discharged from the ED without further investigation for PE. The endorsement of this rule could markedly reduce the number of irradiative imaging studies, ED length of stay, and rate of adverse events resulting from both diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. Several retrospective and prospective studies have shown the safety and benefits of the PERC rule for PE diagnosis in low-risk patients, but the validity of this rule is still controversial. We hypothesize that in European patients with a low gestalt clinical probability and who are PERC-negative, PE can be safely ruled out and the patient discharged without further testing. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a controlled, cluster randomized trial, in 15 centers in France. Each center will be randomized for the sequence of intervention periods: a 6-month intervention period (PERC-based strategy) followed by a 6-month control period (usual care), or in reverse order, with 2 months of "wash-out" between the 2 periods. Adult patients presenting to the ED with a suspicion of PE and a low pre test probability estimated by clinical gestalt will be eligible. The primary outcome is the percentage of failure resulting from the diagnostic strategy, defined as diagnosed venous thromboembolic events at 3-month follow-up, among patients for whom PE has been initially ruled out. DISCUSSION: The PERC rule has the potential to decrease the number of irradiative imaging studies in the ED, and is reported to be safe. However, no randomized study has ever validated the safety of PERC. Furthermore, some studies have challenged the safety of a PERC-based strategy to rule-out PE, especially in Europe where the prevalence of PE diagnosed in the ED is high. The PROPER study should provide high-quality evidence to settle this issue. If it confirms the safety of the PERC rule, physicians will be able to reduce the number of investigations, associated subsequent adverse events, costs, and ED length of stay for patients with a low clinical probability of PE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02375919 .
Resumo:
Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in the US and in westernized countries with ischemic heart disease accounting for the majority of these deaths. Paradoxically, the improvements in the medical and surgical treatments of acute coronary syndrome are leading to an increasing number of "survivors" who are then developing heart failure. Despite considerable advances in its management, the gold standard for the treatment of end-stage heart failure patients remains heart transplantation. Nevertheless, this procedure can be offered only to a small percentage of patients who could benefit from a new heart due to the limited availability of donor organs. The aim of this review is to evaluate the safety and efficacy of innovative approaches in the diagnosis and treatment of patients refractory to standard medical therapy and excluded from cardiac transplantation lists.
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Objectives: The aim of the study was to combine clinical results from the European Cohort of the REVERSE study and costs associated with the addition of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with mild symptomatic (NYHA I-II) or asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and markers of cardiac dyssynchrony in Spain. Methods: A Markov model was developed with CRT + OMT (CRT-ON) versus OMT only (CRT-OFF) based on a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Raw data was derived from literature and expert opinion, reflecting clinical and economic consequences of patient"s management in Spain. Time horizon was 10 years. Both costs (euro 2010) and effects were discounted at 3 percent per annum. Results: CRT-ON showed higher total costs than CRT-OFF; however, CRT reduced the length of hospitalization in ICU by 94 percent (0.006 versus 0.091 days) and general ward in by 34 percent (0.705 versus 1.076 days). Surviving CRT-ON patients (88.2 percent versus 77.5 percent) remained in better functional class longer, and they achieved an improvement of 0.9 life years (LYGs) and 0.77 years quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). CRT-ON proved to be cost-effective after 6 years, except for the 7th year due to battery depletion. At 10 years, the results were 18,431 per LYG and 21,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed CRT-ON was cost-effective in 75.4 percent of the cases at 10 years. Conclusions: The use of CRT added to OMT represents an efficient use of resources in patients suffering from heart failure in NYHA functional classes I and II.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: There is currently no guideline regarding the management of neurogenic detrusor overactivity (NDO) refractory to intra-detrusor botulinum toxin injections. The primary objective of the present study was to find a consensus definition of failure of botulinum toxin intra-detrusor injections for NDO. The secondary objective was to report current trends in the managment of NDO refractory to botulinum toxin. METHODS: A survey was created, based on data drawn from current literature, and sent via e-mail to all the experts form the Group for research in neurourology in french language (GENULF) and from the comittee of neurourology of the French urological association (AFU). The experts who did not answer to the first e-mail were contacted again twice. Main results from the survey are presented and expressed as numbers and proportions. RESULTS: Out of the 42 experts contacted, 21 responded to the survey. Nineteen participants considered that the definition of failure should be a combination of clinical and urodynamics criteria. Among the urodynamics criteria, the persistence of a maximum detrusor pressure>40cm H2O was the most supported by the experts (18/21, 85%). According to the vast majority of participants (19/21, 90.5%), the impact of injections on urinary incontinence should be included in the definition of failure. Regarding the management, most experts considered that the first line treatment in case of failure of a first intra-detrusor injection of Botox(®) 200 U should be a repeat injection of Botox(®) at a higher dosage (300 U) (15/20, 75%), regardless of the presence or not of urodynamics risk factors of upper tract damage (16/20, 80%). CONCLUSION: This work has provided a first overview of the definition of failure of intra-detrusor injections of botulinum toxin in the management of NDO. For 90.5% of the experts involved, the definition of failure should be clinical and urodynamic and most participants (75%) considered that, in case of failure of a first injection of Botox(®) 200 U, repeat injection of Botox(®) 300 U should be the first line treatment. Level of proof 4.