Indicadores avançados para o investimento directo estrangeiro: aplicação ao caso português

RESUMO:O investimento directo estrangeiro tem sido um dos factores com maior importância, no crescimento económico dos países em desenvolvimento, por contribuir para financiar o défice da balança corrente com o exterior, em particular a balança comercial. Num âmbito mais microeconómico é um forte gerador de emprego, proporciona avanços tecnológicos importantes, permitindo a partilha de conhecimentos das tecnologias, o conhecimento de novas formas de gestão e novas formas de marketing. Este trabalho tem como objectivo principal, identificar potenciais variáveis como indicadores avançados para o investimento directo estrangeiro, de modo a antecipar possíveis tendências para a sua evolução. Para alcançar este propósito recorreu-se aos Modelos Autoregressivos Vectoriais (VAR) e à causalidade de Granger com base em dados mensais para o período de Janeiro de 1996 a Setembro de 2010. Foram consideradas variáveis essenvialmente macroeconómicas, tanto do lado da economia receptora como dos países investidores, de modo a reflectirem a actividade económica ao longo do período de estudo. ABSTRACT: The foreign direct investment, has been one of the main factors in the economical development for the countries that are in a process of developing, because it allows the generation of new investments and generate money from the return of the investment, as well as it creates new opportunities for the employment. It allows important technologic advances with the share of the technology Knowledge as well new ways to learn marketing management and enterprise management. This work/research, aims to identify potential variables as advanced indicators for the foreign direct investment, in order to anticipate possible trends of their evolution. To achieve this goal, Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR) and Granger causality based on based on monthly data for the period January between 1996 and September of 2010, were used. Essentially macroeconomic variables were considered, on both the host economy and the countries investors in order to reflect the economic activity throughout the study period.

Filicídio e matricídio : quando a relação entre mãe e filho se torna fatal

RESUMO: A morte de um filho às mãos da sua mãe ou de uma mãe às mãos do seu filho, é uma realidade rara que provoca uma reacção colectiva de choque e repulsa. Por seu turno, a comunidade cientifica procura explicações, classificações e formas de prever e evitar novas tragédias. No presente estudo foram objecto de análise cinco casos de filicídio e seis casos de matricídio, tendo-se procedido à avaliação de características de personalidade e enquadramento social e familiar, através da realização de uma entrevista e a aplicação de dois testes de personalidade, um teste de inteligência geral e um teste de impulsividade. Com excepção de 4 casos de matricidas, os restantes sujeitos não apresentaram problemas mentais graves nem marcada perturbação anti-social de personalidade, sendo os factores determinantes mais comuns de natureza social e familiar, que, associados às respectivas características de personalidade e nível de inteligência, conduziram os sujeitos ao acto, levando a concluir pela necessidade do reforço das políticas sociais e de saúde mental, bem como, da necessidade de um maior conhecimento do sujeito que pratica o crime por parte de quem tem a responsabilidade de o julgar e de quem tem o encargo de o reabilitar. ABSTRACT: The death of a child at the hands of its mother or of a mother at the hands of her child is a rare reality that causes a collective reaction of shock and disgust. In turn, the scientific community seeks explanations, classifications and ways of predicting and preventing further tragedies. The current study examined five cases of filicide and six cases of matricide, and personality characteristics and social and family frameworks were assessed, through the application of an interview, two personality tests, a general intelligence test and an impulsivity test. With the exception of 4 cases of matricide, the remaining subjects did not show any serious mental problems or severe anti-social personality disturbance, the most common factors being of social and family nature. These factors, combined with their personality characteristics and intelligence level, led the subjects to the act, thus showing the need to strengthen social and mental health policies, as well as the need for a greater knowledge on the subject who commits the offence, from the part of those who are responsible for judging him and of those who are in charge of rehabilitating him.

Factors influencing amblyopia rehabilitation in occlusive therapy

Amblyopia develops in an early period and is a decrease of visual acuity (unilateral or bilateral) caused by a deprivation of vision or abnormal binocular interaction. Prognosis of Amblyopia is better when occlusive treatment is implemented in an early stage. Visual acuity of amblyopic eye does not improve without effective occlusive therapy. The aim of this study is to identify potential risk factors of noncompliance with treatment when it is implemented by parents in amblyopic children.

Risk factors for non compliance using occlusive therapy: a case study

Purpose: compliance with treatment is a common problem when treating amblyopic patients. Visual acuity of amblyopic eye does not improve without effective occlusive therapy. The aim of this study is to identify potential risk factors of non-compliance with treatment when it is implemented by family in amblyopic children. Setting: a quantitative transversal study was performed in a public hospital and in a private clinic in Lisbon.

Lifestyle factors influence in the frequency in buccal micronucleus

Genomic damage is probably the most important fundamental cause of development and degenerative disease. It is also well established that genomic damage is produced by environmental exposure to genotoxins, medical procedures (e.g. radiation and chemicals), micronutrient deficiency (e.g. folate), lifestyle factors (e.g. alcohol, smoking, drugs and stress), and genetic factors such as inherited defects in DNA metabolism and/or repair. Tobacco smoke has been associated to a higher risk of development of cancer, especially in the oral cavity, larynx and lungs, as these are places of direct contact with many carcinogenic tobacco’s compounds. Alcohol is definitely a recognized agent that influence cells in a genotoxic form, been citied as a strong agent with potential in the development of carcinogenic lesions. Epidemiological evidence points to a strong synergistic effect between cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption in the induction of cancers in the oral cavity. Approximately 90% of human cancers originate from epithelial cells. Therefore, it could be argued that oral epithelial cells represent a preferred target site for early genotoxic events induced by carcinogenic agents entering the body via inhalation and ingestion. The MN assay in buccal cells was also used to study cancerous and precancerous lesions and to monitor the effects of a number of chemopreventive agents.

Nutritional factors in milk from Brazilian mothers delivering small for gestational age neonates

The composition of breast milk from brazilian mothers delivering low birthweight infants and its adequacy as a source of nutrients for this group has not yet been fully elucidated. A total of 209 milk samples from 66 women were analysed. The mothers were divided into three groups: G1, mothers delivering term babies of low birthweight (TSGA, n=16); G2, mothers delivering preterm babies of appropriate birthweight (PTAGA, n=20); G3, mothers delivering term babies of appropriate birthweight (TAGA, n=30). The following factors were analysed: osmolarity, total proteins and protein fractions, creamatocrit, sodium, potassium, calcium and magnesium. Milk samples were collected 48 h and 7, 15, 30 and 60 days after delivery. The groups did not differ significantly in terms of osmolarity, total proteins and fractions, creamatocrit, calcium, magnesium or potassium throughout the study period. Sodium levels were higher in all samples from mothers of TSGA infants and in samples from mothers of PTAGA infants on the 7th, 15th and 30th days than in milk from the TAGA group. The authors consider the needs of the low birthweight and TAGA infants and that these high sodium levels may be necessary for growth of low birthweight infants.

Risk factors for basal cell carcinoma: a case-control study

A controlled trial was performed with the purpose of investigating which factors could be considered of significant risk for the development of basal cell carcinoma. A total of 259 cases of basal cell carcinoma diagnosed from July 1991 to July 1992 were compared with 518 controls matched for age and sex. All subjects in both groups were white. Protocol data were submitted to statistical analysis by the chi-square test and by multiple conditional logistic regression analysis and the following conclusions were reached: 1) light skin color (types I and II of the Fitzpatrick classification), odds ratio of 2.8; outdoor work under constant sunlight, odds ratio of 5.0; the presence of actinic lesions due to exposure to the sun, odds ratio of 4.9, are risk factors perse. 2) Type III skin in the Fitzpatrick classification only represents a risk factor when the patient reports a history of intense sunburns, but not in the absence of such a history. 3) Sunburns per se do not represent a risk factor althorig the point made in item 2 of these conclusions is valid. 4) Other suspected risk factors whose significance was not confirmed by multiple conditioned logistic regression analysis were: residence in rural areas, light eyes and blond hair color, extent of the awareness of the "sun x skin cancer" relationship, familial occurrence of skin cancer, excessive exposure to the sun, and freckles appearing in childhood.

Poverty levels and children's health status: study of risk factors in an urban population of low socioeconomic level

To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.

Factors affecting nutrition behavior among middle-class adolescents in urban area of Northern region of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Brazil has been called a nation in nutrition transitional because of recent increases in the prevalence of obesity and related chronic diseases. With overweight conditions already prevalent among middle-income populations, there exists a need to identify factors that influence nutrition behavior within this group. OBJECTIVE: To address this subject, a research study was implemented among middle-class adolescents attending a large private secondary school in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. The study determined the availability and accessibility of snack foods as well as subjects’ attitudes and preferences towards, and the influence of family and friends on healthy (high-nutrient density) snack choices. METHODS: The 4-stage process included: (a) a nutrition expert focus group discussion that reported local nutrition problems in general and factors related to adolescent nutrition, (b) an adolescent pilot survey (n=63) that solicited information about snacking preferences and habits as well as resources for nutrition information and snack money; (c) a survey of various area food market sources to determine the availability and accessibility of high nutrient density snacks; and (d) a follow-up adolescent survey (n=55) that measured snack food preferences and perceptions about their cost and availability. RESULTS: Results included the finding that, although affordable high nutrient density snacks were available, preferences for low nutrient density snacks prevailed. The adolescents were reportedly more likely to be influenced by and obtain nutrition information from family members than friends. CONCLUSION: From study results it is apparent that a focus on food availability will not automatically result in proper nutritional practices among adolescents. This fact and the parental influence detected are evidence of a need to involve adolescents and their parents in nutrition education campaigns to improve adolescent snack food choices.

Sistema de apoio à decisão para a classificação de risco em projectos de tecnologias de informação

O trabalho que a seguir se apresenta tem como objectivo descrever a criação de um modelo que sirva de suporte a um sistema de apoio à decisão sobre o risco inerente à execução de projectos na área das Tecnologias de Informação (TI) recorrendo a técnicas de mineração de dados. Durante o ciclo de vida de um projecto, existem inúmeros factores que contribuem para o seu sucesso ou insucesso. A responsabilidade de monitorizar, antever e mitigar esses factores recai sobre o Gestor de Projecto. A gestão de projectos é uma tarefa difícil e dispendiosa, consome muitos recursos, depende de numerosas variáveis e, muitas vezes, até da própria experiência do Gestor de Projecto. Ao ser confrontado com as previsões de duração e de esforço para a execução de uma determinada tarefa, o Gestor de Projecto, exceptuando a sua percepção e intuição pessoal, não tem um modo objectivo de medir a plausibilidade dos valores que lhe são apresentados pelo eventual executor da tarefa. As referidas previsões são fundamentais para a organização, pois sobre elas são tomadas as decisões de planeamento global estratégico corporativo, de execução, de adiamento, de cancelamento, de adjudicação, de renegociação de âmbito, de adjudicação externa, entre outros. Esta propensão para o desvio, quando detectada numa fase inicial, pode ajudar a gerir melhor o risco associado à Gestão de Projectos. O sucesso de cada projecto terminado foi qualificado tendo em conta a ponderação de três factores: o desvio ao orçamentado, o desvio ao planeado e o desvio ao especificado. Analisando os projectos decorridos, e correlacionando alguns dos seus atributos com o seu grau de sucesso o modelo classifica, qualitativamente, um novo projecto quanto ao seu risco. Neste contexto o risco representa o grau de afastamento do projecto ao sucesso. Recorrendo a algoritmos de mineração de dados, tais como, árvores de classificação e redes neuronais, descreve-se o desenvolvimento de um modelo que suporta um sistema de apoio à decisão baseado na classificação de novos projectos. Os modelos são o resultado de um extensivo conjunto de testes de validação onde se procuram e refinam os indicadores que melhor caracterizam os atributos de um projecto e que mais influenciam o risco. Como suporte tecnológico para o desenvolvimento e teste foi utilizada a ferramenta Weka 3. Uma boa utilização do modelo proposto possibilitará a criação de planos de contingência mais detalhados e uma gestão mais próxima para projectos que apresentem uma maior propensão para o risco. Assim, o resultado final pretende constituir mais uma ferramenta à disposição do Gestor de Projecto.

Risk factors for perinatal mortality in an urban area of Southern Brazil, 1993

INTRODUCTION: Although there was a considerable reduction in infant mortality in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul in the last decade, its perinatal causes were reduced only by 28%. The associated factors of these causes were analised. MATERIAL AND METHOD: All hospital births and perinatal deaths were assessed by daily visits to all the maternity hospitals in the city, throughout 1993 and including the first week of 1994. RESULTS: The perinatal mortality rate was 22.1 per thousand births. The multivariate analysis showed the following risk factors: low socioeconomic level, male sex and maternal age above 35 years . Among multigravidae women, the fetal mortality rate was significantly increased for mothers with a previously low birthweight and a previous stillbirth. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Main risk factors for perinatal mortality: low socioeconomic level, maternal age above 35 years and male sex. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight.

Return premiums of sustainable companies listed on the Spanish stock market

The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether companies with a greater commitment to corporate social responsibility (SRI companies) perform differently on the stock market compared to companies that disregard SRI. Over recent years, this relationship has been taken up at both a theoretical and practical level, and has led to extensive scientific research of an empirical nature involving the examination of the relationships existing between the financial and social, environmental and corporate governance performance of a company and the relationship between SRI and investment decisions in the financial market. More specifically, this work provides empirical evidence for the Spanish market as to whether or not belonging to a group of companies the market classes as sustainable results in return premiums that set them apart from companies classed as conventional, and finds no differences in the stock market performance of companies considered to be SRI or conventional.

The risk-return trade-off in Europe: A temporal and cross-sectional analysis

This paper analyzes the risk-return trade-off in European equities considering both temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. In our analysis, we introduce not only the market portfolio but also 15 industry portfolios comprising the entire market. Several bivariate GARCH models are estimated to obtain the covariance matrix between excess market returns and the industrial portfolios and the existence of a risk-return trade-off is analyzed through a cross-sectional approach using the information in all portfolios. It is obtained evidence for a positive and significant risk-return trade-off in the European market. This conclusion is robust for different GARCH specifications and is even more evident after controlling for the main financial crisis during the sample period.

Good deals in markets with frictions

This paper studies a portfolio choice problem such that the pricing rule may incorporate transaction costs and the risk measure is coherent and expectation bounded. We will prove the necessity of dealing with pricing rules such that there exists an essentially bounded stochastic discount factor, which must be also bounded from below by a strictly positive value. Otherwise good deals will be available to traders, i.e., depending on the selected risk measure, investors can build portfolios whose (risk, return) will be as close as desired to (−infinity, infinity) or (0, infinity). This pathologic property still holds for vector risk measures (i.e., if we minimize a vector valued function whose components are risk measures). It is worthwhile to point out that essentially bounded stochastic discount factors are not usual in financial literature. In particular, the most famous frictionless, complete and arbitrage free pricing models imply the existence of good deals for every coherent and expectation bounded (scalar or vector) measure of risk, and the incorporation of transaction costs will not guarantee the solution of this caveat.

A comparative study of alternative approaches for common factors identification

Preliminary version