A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Smoking and elevated blood pressure are the most important risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Asia-Pacific region - An overview of 26 cohorts involving 306,620 participants

Background and Purpose - The cause of subarachnoid hemorrhage ( SAH) is poorly understood and there are few large cohort studies of risk factors for SAH. We investigated the risk of SAH mortality and morbidity associated with common cardiovascular risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region and examined whether the strengths of these associations were different in Asian and Australasian ( predominantly white) populations. Methods - Cohort studies were identified from Internet electronic databases, searches of proceedings of meetings, and personal communication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, total serum cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol drinking were calculated from Cox models that were stratified by sex and cohort and adjusted for age at risk. Results - Individual participant data from 26 prospective cohort studies ( total number of participants 306 620) that reported incident cases of SAH ( fatal and/or nonfatal) were available for analysis. During the median follow-up period of 8.2 years, a total of 236 incident cases of SAH were observed. Current smoking (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.4) and SBP > 140 mm Hg ( HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5 to 2.7) were significant and independent risk factors for SAH. Attributable risks of SAH associated with current smoking and elevated SBP ( similar to 140 mm Hg) were 29% and 19%, respectively. There were no significant associations between the risk of SAH and cholesterol, BMI, or drinking alcohol. The strength of the associations of the common cardiovascular risk factors with the risk of SAH did not differ much between Asian and Australasian regions. Conclusions - Cigarette smoking and SBP are the most important risk factors for SAH in the Asia-Pacific region.

Interactions among smoking, obesity, and symptoms of acid reflux in Barrett's esophagus

Background: Barrett's esophagus, a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma, is becoming increasingly prevalent in many populations. Clinical studies suggest acid reflux causes Barrett's esophagus; however, no population-based estimates of risk have been reported, and the role of other health factors in modifying risk is unclear. Methods: We conducted a population-based case-control study in Brisbane, Australia. Cases were 167 patients with histologically confirmed Barrett's esophagus diagnosed between February and December 2003. Age-matched and sex-matched controls (n = 261) were randomly selected from a population register. Data on exposure to self-reported symptoms of acid reflux, smoking, obesity, and other factors were collected through self-completed questionnaires followed by telephone interview. Risks of Barrett's esophagus and Barrett's esophagus with dysplasia associated with these exposures were estimated by the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% Cl), both crude and adjusted for other factors. Results: Self-reported weekly episodes of acid reflux were associated with greatly increased risks of Barrett's esophagus (adjusted OR, 29.7; 95% CI, 12.2-72.6) and Barrett's esophagus with dysplasia (OR, 59.7; 95% CI, 18.5-193). Smoking was also associated with risk of Barrett's esophagus. We found evidence of interactions between symptoms of acid reflux and smoking and obesity. Obese people with self-reported symptoms of acid reflux had markedly higher risks of Barrett's esophagus (OR, 34.4; 95% CI, 6.3-188) than people with reflux alone (OR, 9.3; 95% CI, 1.4-62.2) or obesity alone (OR, 0.7,95% CI, 0.2-2.4). Similarly, those reporting both acid reflux symptoms and smoking were at substantially higher risks of Barrett's esophagus (OR, 51.4; 95% CI, 14.1-188) than those reporting acid reflux or smoking alone. Conclusions: Although history of symptoms of acid reflux is the principle factor associated with Barrett's esophagus, risks are substantially increased by obesity and smoking.

Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: Results from 27 populations in the WHO MONIICA Project

Introduction: In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. Methods:Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. Results: In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. Conclusions: The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.

Development and evaluation of the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a new instrument – the Clinician Suicide Risk Assessment Checklist (CSRAC). The instrument assesses the clinician’s competency in three areas: clinical interviewing, assessment of specific suicide risk factors, and formulating a management plan. A draft checklist was constructed by integrating information from 1) literature review 2) expert clinician focus group and 3) consultation with experts. It was utilised in a simulated clinical scenario with clinician trainees and a trained actor in order to test for inter-rater agreement. Agreement was calculated and the checklist was re-drafted with the aim of maximising agreement. A second phase of simulated clinical scenarios was then conducted and inter-rater agreement was calculated for the revised checklist. In the first phase of the study, 18 of 35 items had inadequate inter-rater agreement (60%>), while in the second phase, using the revised version, only 3 of 39 items failed to achieve adequate inter-rater agreement. Further evidence of reliability and validity are required. Continued development of the CSRAC will be necessary before it can be utilised to assess the effectiveness of risk assessment training programs.

The influence of communication sources on perceived risk about purchasing online

In this paper we report on a qualitative study into the influence of personal and non-personal communication sources in creating, sustaining and/or mediating people's perceptions of risk about purchasing online. In terms of non-personal communication sources, our findings suggest that the popular media significantly influence both purchasers and nonpurchasers’ perceptions of risk about using the Web for purchasing. Despite these negative perceptions, those who have purchased online appear to pay little attention to change agent communications on websites, such as logos, icons and statements about secure payment systems, which are designed to alleviate these concerns. In terms of inter-personal communication sources, our findings suggest that while there is evidence that to some degree, friends or peers influenced the interviewees about purchasing online, the purchasers in our study indicated that they would not influence others to do the same. We conclude our paper with suggestions for future interpretive research into the influence of communication sources on acceptance of the Web for purchasing.

Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

The higher-order factor structures of five personality inventories

This study examined the internal higher-order structures of five personality inventories (the Hogan Personality Inventory, the Occupational Personality Questionnaire, the Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire, the Personality and Preferences Inventory, Profile Match). A sample of 356 individuals from the UK working population completed various combinations of the five inventories. Overall, the results indicated sensible and interpretable factor structures for the inventories. Cross-inventory factor analyses of the extracted factors revealed a variant of the Big Five model underpinning them, enabling examination of inventory convergence and divergence. Our study also examined and compared representations of the General Factor of Personality in each of the inventories. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

Understanding supply chain disruption risk with the aid of social networks and information flows analysis

Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) has become a popular area of research and study in recent years. This can be highlighted by the number of peer reviewed articles that have appeared in academic literature. This coupled with the realisation by companies that SCRM strategies are required to mitigate the risks that they face, makes for challenging research questions in the field of risk management. The challenge that companies face today is not only to identify the types of risks that they face, but also to assess the indicators of risk that face them. This will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. The use of social network theory can aid in the identification of disruption risk. This thesis proposes the combination of social networks, behavioural risk indicators and information management, to uniquely identify disruption risk. The propositions that were developed from the literature review and exploratory case study in the aerospace OEM, in this thesis are:- By improving information flows, through the use of social networks, we can identify supply chain disruption risk. - The management of information to identify supply chain disruption risk can be explored using push and pull concepts. The propositions were further explored through four focus group sessions, two within the OEM and two within an academic setting. The literature review conducted by the researcher did not find any studies that have evaluated supply chain disruption risk management in terms of social network analysis or information management studies. The evaluation of SCRM using these methods is thought to be a unique way of understanding the issues in SCRM that practitioners face today in the aerospace industry.

Genetic risk factors and age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make lifestyle choices that may reduce the risk of disease. Collaboration between geneticists, ophthalmologists, and optometrists suggests that genetic risk factors play a more significant role in AMD than previously thought. The most important genes are associated with immune system modulation and the complement system, e.g., complement factor H (CFH), factor B (CFB), factor C3, and serpin peptidase inhibitor (SERPING1). Genes associated with membrane transport, e.g., ATP-binding cassette protein (ABCR) and voltage-dependent calcium channel gamma 3 (CACNG3), the vascular system, e.g., fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2), fibulin-5, lysyl oxidase-like gene (LOXL1) and selectin-P (SELP), and with lipid metabolism, e.g., apolipoprotein E (APOE) and hepatic lipase (LIPC) have also been implicated. In addition, several other genes exhibit some statistical association with AMD, e.g., age-related maculopathy susceptibility protein 2 (ARMS2) and DNA excision repair protein gene (ERCC6) but more research is needed to establish their significance. Modifiable risk factors for AMD should be discussed with patients whose lifestyle and/or family history place them in an increased risk category. Furthermore, calculation of AMD risk using current models should be recommended as a tool for patient education. It is likely that AMD management in future will be increasingly influenced by assessment of genetic risk as such screening methods become more widely available. © 2013 Spanish General Council of Optometry.

Intrapartum tests for group B streptococcus:accuracy and acceptability of screening

Objective: To assess the accuracy and acceptability of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and optical immunoassay (OIA) tests for the detection of maternal group B streptococcus (GBS) colonisation during labour, comparing their performance with the current UK policy of risk factor-based screening. Design Diagnostic test accuracy study. Setting and population Fourteen hundred women in labour at two large UK maternity units provided vaginal and rectal swabs for testing. Methods The PCR and OIA index tests were compared with the reference standard of selective enriched culture, assessed blind to index tests. Factors influencing neonatal GBS colonisation were assessed using multiple logistic regression, adjusting for antibiotic use. The acceptability of testing to participants was evaluated through a structured questionnaire administered after delivery. Main outcome measures The sensitivity and specificity of PCR, OIA and risk factor-based screening. Results Maternal GBS colonisation was 21% (19-24%) by combined vaginal and rectal swab enriched culture. PCR test of either vaginal or rectal swabs was more sensitive (84% [79-88%] versus 72% [65-77%]) and specific (87% [85-89%] versus 57% [53-60%]) than OIA (P <0.001), and far more sensitive (84 versus 30% [25-35%]) and specific (87 versus 80% [77-82%]) than risk factor-based screening (P <0.001). Maternal antibiotics (odds ratio, 0.22 [0.07-0.62]; P = 0.004) and a positive PCR test (odds ratio, 29.4 [15.8-54.8]; P <0.001) were strongly related to neonatal GBS colonisation, whereas risk factors were not (odds ratio, 1.44 [0.80-2.62]; P = 0.2). Conclusion Intrapartum PCR screening is a more accurate predictor of maternal and neonatal GBS colonisation than is OIA or risk factor-based screening, and is acceptable to women. © RCOG 2010 BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology.

Knowledge management in support of enterprise risk management

Risk management and knowledge management have so far been studied almost independently. The evolution of risk management to the holistic view of Enterprise Risk Management requires the destruction of barriers between organizational silos and the exchange and application of knowledge from different risk management areas. However, knowledge management has received little or no attention in risk management. This paper examines possible relationships between knowledge management constructs related to knowledge sharing, and two risk management concepts: perceived quality of risk control and perceived value of enterprise risk management. From a literature review, relationships with eight knowledge management variables covering people, process and technology aspects were hypothesised. A survey was administered to risk management employees in financial institutions. The results showed that the perceived quality of risk control is significantly associated with four knowledge management variables: perceived quality of risk knowledge sharing, perceived quality of communication among people, web channel functionality, and risk management information system functionality. However, the relationships of the knowledge management variables to the perceived value of enterprise risk management are not significant. We conclude that better knowledge management is associated with better risk control, but that more effort needs to be made to break down organizational silos in order to support true Enterprise Risk Management.