Desenvolvimento de modelo matemático de otimização logística para o transporte multimodal de safras agrícolas pelo corredor centro-oeste

Este artigo apresenta um modelo matemático de otimização logística para o transporte multimodal de safras agrícolas pelo corredor Centro-Oeste. Tal ferramenta foi desenvolvida no contexto de três amplos projetos de pesquisa financiados pela FINEP e executados por um grupo de universidades. O modelo, conhecido genericamente como Modelo de fluxo de Custo Mínimo Multiproduto, considera a otimização de fluxos em rede, para os produtos açúcar, álcool, milho, soja, óleo de soja, farelo de soja e trigo. O modelo proposto para estimativa dos fluxos inter-regionais mostrou-se uma ferramenta factível para fins de avaliação do potencial de utilização da multimodalidade. A análise destes resultados gera importantes subsídios para a seleção dos locais com potencial para instalação de mecanismos e equipamentos de transferência de cargas, além de auxiliar no dimensionamento dessas infraestruturas. Também é um resultado importante do ferramental desenvolvido a identificação das zonas de cargas que apresentam potencial captável pelas ferrovias, hidrovias e dutovias, ou seja, possibilita a identificação das regiões que revelam potencial para uso da multimodalidade.

A comparative analysis of the relative efficacy of vector-control strategies against dengue fever

Dengue is considered one of the most important vector-borne infection, affecting almost half of the world population with 50 to 100 million cases every year. In this paper, we present one of the simplest models that can encapsulate all the important variables related to vector control of dengue fever. The model considers the human population, the adult mosquito population and the population of immature stages, which includes eggs, larvae and pupae. The model also considers the vertical transmission of dengue in the mosquitoes and the seasonal variation in the mosquito population. From this basic model describing the dynamics of dengue infection, we deduce thresholds for avoiding the introduction of the disease and for the elimination of the disease. In particular, we deduce a Basic Reproduction Number for dengue that includes parameters related to the immature stages of the mosquito. By neglecting seasonal variation, we calculate the equilibrium values of the model’s variables. We also present a sensitivity analysis of the impact of four vector-control strategies on the Basic Reproduction Number, on the Force of Infection and on the human prevalence of dengue. Each of the strategies was studied separately from the others. The analysis presented allows us to conclude that of the available vector control strategies, adulticide application is the most effective, followed by the reduction of the exposure to mosquito bites, locating and destroying breeding places and, finally, larvicides. Current vector-control methods are concentrated on mechanical destruction of mosquitoes’ breeding places. Our results suggest that reducing the contact between vector and hosts (biting rates) is as efficient as the logistically difficult but very efficient adult mosquito’s control.

Multimodality and flexibility of stochastic gene expression

We consider a general class of mathematical models for stochastic gene expression where the transcription rate is allowed to depend on a promoter state variable that can take an arbitrary (finite) number of values. We provide the solution of the master equations in the stationary limit, based on a factorization of the stochastic transition matrix that separates timescales and relative interaction strengths, and we express its entries in terms of parameters that have a natural physical and/or biological interpretation. The solution illustrates the capacity of multiple states promoters to generate multimodal distributions of gene products, without the need for feedback. Furthermore, using the example of a three states promoter operating at low, high, and intermediate expression levels, we show that using multiple states operons will typically lead to a significant reduction of noise in the system. The underlying mechanism is that a three-states promoter can change its level of expression from low to high by passing through an intermediate state with a much smaller increase of fluctuations than by means of a direct transition.