On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

English as a Global Language

How far has English already spread? How much further can we expect it to go? In response to the first question, this chapter tries to identify the areas of life where English already serves as a lingua franca in the world (more or less) and those where the language faces sharp competition and does not threaten to marginalize the other major languages. The former areas of life are international safety, the internal business of international organizations, internal communication within the international news industry, international sports and science. The latter areas are the press, television, the internet, publishing and international trade. As to the second question, about the future prospects of English, the chapter argues that the advance of English will depend heavily on the motives to learn the other major languages in the world as well. Based on the empirical evidence, the same model applies to the incentives to learn English and these other languages. On the important topic of welfare, the cultural market is the single one where it is arguable that the progress of English has gone too far. English dominance in the song, the cinema and the best-seller is indeed extraordinary and difficult to reconcile with the evidence popular attachments to home languages, which is otherwise strong and apparent.

T1-weighted MRI as a substitute to CT for refocusing planning in MR-guided focused ultrasound.

Precise focusing is essential for transcranial MRI-guided focused ultrasound (TcMRgFUS) to minimize collateral damage to non-diseased tissues and to achieve temperatures capable of inducing coagulative necrosis at acceptable power deposition levels. CT is usually used for this refocusing but requires a separate study (CT) ahead of the TcMRgFUS procedure. The goal of this study was to determine whether MRI using an appropriate sequence would be a viable alternative to CT for planning ultrasound refocusing in TcMRgFUS. We tested three MRI pulse sequences (3D T1 weighted 3D volume interpolated breath hold examination (VIBE), proton density weighted 3D sampling perfection with applications optimized contrasts using different flip angle evolution and 3D true fast imaging with steady state precision T2-weighted imaging) on patients who have already had a CT scan performed. We made detailed measurements of the calvarial structure based on the MRI data and compared those so-called 'virtual CT' to detailed measurements of the calvarial structure based on the CT data, used as a reference standard. We then loaded both standard and virtual CT in a TcMRgFUS device and compared the calculated phase correction values, as well as the temperature elevation in a phantom. A series of Bland-Altman measurement agreement analyses showed T1 3D VIBE as the optimal MRI sequence, with respect to minimizing the measurement discrepancy between the MRI derived total skull thickness measurement and the CT derived total skull thickness measurement (mean measurement discrepancy: 0.025; 95% CL (-0.22-0.27); p = 0.825). The T1-weighted sequence was also optimal in estimating skull CT density and skull layer thickness. The mean difference between the phase shifts calculated with the standard CT and the virtual CT reconstructed from the T1 dataset was 0.08 ± 1.2 rad on patients and 0.1 ± 0.9 rad on phantom. Compared to the real CT, the MR-based correction showed a 1 °C drop on the maximum temperature elevation in the phantom (7% relative drop). Without any correction, the maximum temperature was down 6 °C (43% relative drop). We have developed an approach that allows for a reconstruction of a virtual CT dataset from MRI to perform phase correction in TcMRgFUS.

Estudi exploratori per a la reconstrucció de temperatures de l'aigua i de l'aire en la conca central del llac Baikal (Sibèria) en els últims 40000 anys

Aquest estudi consisteix en un anàlisi exploratori que té per objectiu principal la realització d’una reconstrucció de la temperatura de l’aigua i l’aire del llac Baikal durant els últims 40.000 anys. El treball s’ha dut a terme mitjançant l’ús de les proxys de reconstrucció de la temperatura y la utilització dels mètodes TEX86, MAAT, i la d’aportació de matèria orgànica d’origen terrestre, el BIT, aplicant-les a la mostra VER93-2 st GC-24, extreta pel Baikal Drilling Project a la conca central, amb l’objectiu de fer una aportació de dades paleoclimàtiques per tal d’aconseguir una millora en les interpretacions de futurs esdeveniments climàtics, i d’identificar esdeveniments climàtics sobtats, tals com els Heinrich events i els Youngers Dryas. Abans de la realització de l’anàlisi de les mostres s’ha dut a terme una extrapolació de l’edat en el testimoni, degut a que l’edat del core BDP VER93-2.st.GC-24 havia estat extrapolada fins a 277,5 cm de profunditat i en el present estudi s’ha ampliat l’anàlisi fins als 460 cm. de profunditat. Un cop obtinguts els resultats s’ha realitzat un càlcul de precisió i reproductibilitat per tal de conèixer una estimació quantitativa de la variabilitat de les dades obtingudes en les diferents proxys, en el qual ha estat demostrat una baixa variabilitat de les dades, exceptuant la variabilitat del TEX86 i la precisió del MAAT. Per a la localització dels diferents esdeveniments climàtics donats durant l’Holocè i el Plistocè s’han realitzat anàlisis gràfics dels propis resultats, juntament i en comparació dels resultats realitzats per Escala et al. (r.n.p [resultats no publicats]) en la conca sud, i de l’estudi publicat per Prokopenko et al., en el que s’analitza la presència de diatomees i matèria orgànica l’Atlàntic Nord. Els resultats integrats d’Escala et al.,(r.n.p) i els d’aquest estudi coincideixen en la datació dels diferents esdeveniments, amb alguna variació hipotèticament produïda per l’extrapolació d’edat realitzada en el present estudi i la gran aportació de matèria orgànica en el lloc d’extracció del testimoni per part del riu Selenga. Aquests resultats mostren una possible relació entre els esdeveniments climàtics i la variació de la temperatura de l’aigua.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Alineamiento múltiple de secuencias con T-Coffee: una aproximación paralela

Las aplicaciones de alineamiento múltiple de secuencias son prototipos de aplicaciones que requieren elevada potencia de cómputo y memoria. Se destacan por la relevancia científica que tienen los resultados que brindan a investigaciones científicas en el campo de la biomedicina, genética y farmacología. Las aplicaciones de alineamiento múltiple tienen la limitante de que no son capaces de procesar miles de secuencias, por lo que se hace necesario crear un modelo para resolver la problemática. Analizando el volumen de datos que se manipulan en el área de las ciencias biológica y la complejidad de los algoritmos de alineamiento de secuencias, la única vía de solución del problema es a través de la utilización de entornos de cómputo paralelos y la computación de altas prestaciones. La investigación realizada por nosotros tiene como objetivo la creación de un modelo paralelo que le permita a los algoritmos de alineamiento múltiple aumentar el número de secuencias a procesar, tratando de mantener la calidad en los resultados para garantizar la precisión científica. El modelo que proponemos emplea como base la clusterización de las secuencias de entrada utilizando criterios biológicos que permiten mantener la calidad de los resultados. Además, el modelo se enfoca en la disminución del tiempo de cómputo y consumo de memoria. Para presentar y validar el modelo utilizamos T-Coffee, como plataforma de desarrollo e investigación. El modelo propuesto pudiera ser aplicado a cualquier otro algoritmo de alineamiento múltiple de secuencias.

Perinatal care at the limit of viability between 22 and 26 completed weeks of gestation in Switzerland.

Perinatal care of pregnant women at high risk for preterm delivery and of preterm infants born at the limit of viability (22-26 completed weeks of gestation) requires a multidisciplinary approach by an experienced perinatal team. Limited precision in the determination of both gestational age and foetal weight, as well as biological variability may significantly affect the course of action chosen in individual cases. The decisions that must be taken with the pregnant women and on behalf of the preterm infant in this context are complex and have far-reaching consequences. When counselling pregnant women and their partners, neonatologists and obstetricians should provide them with comprehensive information in a sensitive and supportive way to build a basis of trust. The decisions are developed in a continuing dialogue between all parties involved (physicians, midwives, nursing staff and parents) with the principal aim to find solutions that are in the infant's and pregnant woman's best interest. Knowledge of current gestational age-specific mortality and morbidity rates and how they are modified by prenatally known prognostic factors (estimated foetal weight, sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, single or multiple births) as well as the application of accepted ethical principles form the basis for responsible decision-making. Communication between all parties involved plays a central role. The members of the interdisciplinary working group suggest that the care of preterm infants with a gestational age between 22 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks should generally be limited to palliative care. Obstetric interventions for foetal indications such as Caesarean section delivery are usually not indicated. In selected cases, for example, after 23 weeks of pregnancy have been completed and several of the above mentioned prenatally known prognostic factors are favourable or well informed parents insist on the initiation of life-sustaining therapies, active obstetric interventions for foetal indications and provisional intensive care of the neonate may be reasonable. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 24 0/7 and 24 6/7 weeks, it can be difficult to determine whether the burden of obstetric interventions and neonatal intensive care is justified given the limited chances of success of such a therapy. In such cases, the individual constellation of prenatally known factors which impact on prognosis can be helpful in the decision making process with the parents. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 25 0/7 and 25 6/7 weeks, foetal surveillance, obstetric interventions for foetal indications and neonatal intensive care measures are generally indicated. However, if several prenatally known prognostic factors are unfavourable and the parents agree, primary non-intervention and neonatal palliative care can be considered. All pregnant women with threatening preterm delivery or premature rupture of membranes at the limit of viability must be transferred to a perinatal centre with a level III neonatal intensive care unit no later than 23 0/7 weeks of gestation, unless emergency delivery is indicated. An experienced neonatology team should be involved in all deliveries that take place after 23 0/7 weeks of gestation to help to decide together with the parents if the initiation of intensive care measures appears to be appropriate or if preference should be given to palliative care (i.e., primary non-intervention). In doubtful situations, it can be reasonable to initiate intensive care and to admit the preterm infant to a neonatal intensive care unit (i.e., provisional intensive care). The infant's clinical evolution and additional discussions with the parents will help to clarify whether the life-sustaining therapies should be continued or withdrawn. Life support is continued as long as there is reasonable hope for survival and the infant's burden of intensive care is acceptable. If, on the other hand, the health care team and the parents have to recognise that in the light of a very poor prognosis the burden of the currently used therapies has become disproportionate, intensive care measures are no longer justified and other aspects of care (e.g., relief of pain and suffering) are the new priorities (i.e., redirection of care). If a decision is made to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining therapies, the health care team should focus on comfort care for the dying infant and support for the parents.

"How I Do It"-Radical Right Colectomy with Side-to-Side Stapled Ileo-Colonic Anastomosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Standardization of surgical technique helps to reproduce excellent clinical outcomes, especially in teaching institutions. We aim to describe in detail our established approach for oncological right colectomy. TECHNIQUE: The right colon is mobilized in a five-step latero-inferior approach starting off with (1) the terminal ileum, visualizing the duodenum and the head of pancreas. (2) The ascending colon is dissected from the retroperitoneum, and takedown of the hepatic flexure is completed coming retrograde from the transverse colon (3). (4) Transection of the remaining retroperitoneal attachments completes exposure of the duodenum and mobilization of the right colon. (5) Ileocolic vessels are dissected out and divided close to their origin, and the mesocolon is divided. We then establish intestinal continuity by use of a side-to-side stapled technique. (1) The arms of a linear cutting stapler are inserted via transverse incisions at the anti-mesenteric sides of the terminal ileum and the transverse colon (tenia) and fired. (2) The enterotomy site is closed by removal of the specimen using a second transverse firing of the linear cutting stapler. An important final step is the (3) reinforcement of the anastomotic ends and the crossing of the staple lines; an omental patch and closure of the mesenteric window are optional. CONCLUSION: The suggested standardized five-step lateral-to-medial dissection of the right colon and the three-step side-to-side stapled technique for ileo-colonic anastomosis are easy to learn and to reproduce. Careful adherence to pivotal technical details will help to obtain an optimal oncological outcome and a consistently low leak rate around 2 %.

L'albedo lunar i els satèl·lits: Recerca sobre els efectes de l'albedo lunar en les plaques solars d'un satèl·lit artificial que orbita al voltant de la Lluna

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. L’albedo lunar i els satèl•lits és un treball que relaciona l’enginyeria aeroespacial amb l’astronomia. El seu objectiu principal investigar si l’albedo lunar, els rajos de sol reflectits a la superfície lunar, pot modificar significativament la temperatura de les plaques solars d’un satèl•lit artificial que orbiti la Lluna i, en conseqüència, afectar-ne el rendiment. El segon objectiu del treball és calcular si seria possible fer un mapa d’albedo lunar, a partir de la temperatura d’un satèl•lit en òrbita al voltant de la Lluna, que permetria conèixer amb més precisió la composició de la superfície lunar. Després d’adquirir els fonaments teòrics necessaris per a realitzar el treball, del procés per a trobar la manera de dur a terme els càlculs i d’efectuar els càlculs en si, les conclusions del treball són que l’albedo lunar causa un augment de temperatura en els satèl•lits prou significatiu per afectar-ne el rendiment; i que amb les temperatures enregistrades per un satèl•lit en òrbita al voltant de la Lluna es podria crear un mapa d’albedo. Aquesta recerca ha estat feta per suggeriment i sota la supervisió del CTAE (Centre de Tecnologia Aeroespacial) per analitzar si els resultats són aplicables al satèl•lit que s’enviarà a la Lluna, Lunar Mission BW1.

A study on the pathogenesis of human cerebral malaria and cerebral babesiosis

Cerebral complications are important, but poorly understood pathological features of infections caused by some species of Plasmodium and Babesia. Patients dying from P. falciparum were classified as cerebral or non-cerebral cases according to the cerebral malaria coma scale. Light microscopy revealed that cerebral microvessels of cerebral malaria patients were field with a mixture of parazited and unparazited erythrocytes, with 94% of the vessels showing parasitized red blood cell (PRBC) sequestration. Some degree of PRBC sequestration was also found in non-cerebral malaria patients, but the percentage of microvessls with sequestered PRBC was only 13% Electron microscopy demonstrated knobs on the membrane of PRBC that formed focal junctions with the capillary endothelium. A number of host cell molecules such as CD36, thrombospondim (TSP) and intracellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-1) may function as endothelial cell surfacereports for P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes. Affinity labeling of CD36 and TSP to the PRBC surface showed these molecules specifically bind to the knobs. Babesia bovis infected erythrocytes procedure projections of the erythrocyte membrane that are similar to knobs. When brain tissue from B. bovis-infected cattle was examined, cerebral capillaries were packed with PRBC. Infected erythrocytes formed focal attachments with cerebral endothelial cells at the site of these knob-like projections. These findings indicate that cerebral pathology caused by B. bovis is similar to human cerebral malaria. A search for cytoadherence proteins in the endothelial cells may lead to a better understanding of the pathogenisis of cerebral babesiosis.

Bimodal magmatism as a consequence of the post-collisional readjustment of the thickened Variscan continental lithosphere (Aiguilles Rouges - Mont Blanc Massifs, Western Alps)

High Precision U-Pb zircon and monazite dating in the Aiguilles Rouges-Mont Blanc area allowed discrimination of three short-lived bimodal magmatic pulses: the early 332 Ma Mg-K Pormenaz monzonite and associated 331 Ma peraluminous Montees Pelissier monzogranite; the 307 Ma cordierite-bearing peraluminous Vallorcine and Fully intrusions; and the 303 Fe-K Mont Blanc syenogranite. All intruded syntectonically along major-scale transcurrent faults at a time when the substratum was experiencing tectonic exhumation, active erosion recorded in detrital basins and isothermal decompression melting dated at 327-320 Ma. Mantle activity and magma mixing are evidenced in all plutons by coeval mafic enclaves, stocks and synplutonic dykes. Both crustal and mantle sources evolve through time, pointing to an increasingly warm continental crust and juvenile asthenospheric mantle sources. This overall tectono-magmatic evolution is interpreted in a scenario of post-collisional restoration to normal size of a thickened continental lithosphere. The latter re-equilibrates through delamination and/or erosion of its mantle root and tectonic exhumation/erosion in an overall extensional regime. Extension is related to either gravitational collapse or back-are extension of a distant subduction zone.

Reliable acetabular cup orientation with a new gravity-assisted guidance system.

Acetabular cup orientation is a key factor determining hip stability, and standard mechanical guides have shown little help in improving alignment. An in vitro study was carried out to compare the accuracy and precision of a new gravity-assisted guidance system with a standard mechanical guide. Three hundred ten cups were impacted by 5 surgeons, and the final cup orientation was measured. With the new guide, the average error in anteversion was 0.4 degrees , compared with 10.4 degrees with the standard guide and 0.3 degrees and -4.7 degrees , respectively, for abduction angles. The average time required for orienting the cups was similar for both guides. The accuracy and reproducibility obtained with the new guide were better (P < .0001). These good results would require a clinical validation.

Eficàcia predictiva de l’HCR-20 i del PCL:SV en contexts institucionals

L’estudi es dirigeix a avaluar la capacitat predictiva sobre la violència dels instruments de judici clínic estructurat, amb una metodologia que aporti resultats comparables a estudis de l’àmbit internacional. La investigació es va portar a terme en un hospital civil de salut mental i la mostra està composta per 114 pacients de les unitats de crònics i subaguts. A l’avaluació inicial, l’HCR-20, el PCL:SV i el Protocol 7 van ser els instruments utilitzats per a la recollida d’informació de les variables predictors. La variable depenent o resultat va ser registrada prospectivament per part de l’equip d’infermeria amb un instrument observacional de fàcil ús, el MOAS. Mitjançant índexs de correlació, càlcul de riscos relatius, i anàlisis de regressió logística i corbes ROC va ser possible conèixer que l’HCR-20 i el PCL-SV són mesures vàlides per a la predicció de la violència intrahospitalària en el curt i mig termini en una mostra espanyola de persones amb malaltia mental severa. L’HCR-20 i particularment els ítems clínics van ser els millors predictors de la violència física envers a persones i objectes. Tant la puntuació numèrica de l’HCR-20 com el judici clínic estructurat van demostrar una precisió predictiva alta i comparable a l'obtinguda amb la versió original de l'instrument. El PCL:SV va arribar una precisió predictiva moderada que va anar disminuint al llarg del seguiment. Altres factors de risc com les agressions o la ira prèvies a l’avaluació també van augmentar significativament el risc de violència durant l’any de seguiment.

Quantitative ultrasound for the detection and management of osteoporosis.

Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) appears to be developing into an acceptable, low-cost and readily-accessible alternative to dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements of bone mineral density (BMD) in the detection and management of osteoporosis. Perhaps the major difficulty with their widespread use is that many different QUS devices exist that differ substantially from each other, in terms of the parameters they measure and the strength of empirical evidence supporting their use. But another problem is that virtually no data exist outside of Caucasian or Asian populations. In general, heel QUS appears to be most tested and most effective. Some, but not all heel QUS devices are effective assessing fracture risk in some, but not all populations, the evidence being strongest for Caucasian females > 55 years old, though some evidence exists for Asian females > 55 and for Caucasian and Asian males > 70. Certain devices may allow to estimate the likelihood of osteoporosis, but very limited evidence exists supporting QUS use during the initiation or monitoring of osteoporosis treatment. Likely, QUS is most effective when combined with an assessment of clinical risk factors (CRF); with DXA reserved for individuals who are not identified as either high or low risk using QUS and CRF. However, monitoring and maintenance of test and instrument accuracy, precision and reproducibility are essential if QUS devices are to be used in clinical practice; and further scientific research in non-Caucasian, non-Asian populations clearly is compulsory to validate this tool for more widespread use.

Estudi de la configuració magnètica de l'experiment LTP (LISA Technology Package)

La Teoria de la Relativitat General preveu que quan un objecte massiu és sotmès a una certa acceleració en certes condicions ha d’emetre ones gravitacionals. Es tracta d’un tipus d’on altament energètica però que interacciona amb la matèria de manera molt feble i el seu punt d’emissió és força llunyà. Per la qual cosa la seva detecció és una tasca extraordinàriament complicada. Conseqüentment, la detecció d’aquestes ones es creu molt més factible utilitzant instruments situats a l’espai. Amb aquest objectiu, neis la missió LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna). Es tracta aquesta d’una missió conjunta entre la NASA i l’ESA amb llançament previst per 2020-2025. Per reduir els riscs que comporta una primera utilització de tecnologia no testejada, unit a l’alt cost econòmic de la missió LISA. Aquesta missió contindrà instruments molt avançats: el LTP (LISA Technoplogy Package), desenvolupat per la Unió Europea, que provarà la tecnologia de LISA i el Drag Free flying system, que s’encarregarà de provar una sèrie de propulsors (thrusters) utilitzats per al control d’actitud i posició de satèl•lit amb precisió de nanòmetres. Particularment, el LTP, està composat per dues masses de prova separades per 35 centímetres, i d’un interferòmetre làser que mesura la variació de la distància relativa entre elles. D’aquesta manera, el LTP mesurarà les prestacions dels equips i les possibles interferències que afecten a la mesura. Entre les fonts de soroll es troben, entre d’altres, el vent i pressió de radiació solar, les càrregues electrostàtiques, el gradient tèrmic, les fluctuacions de voltatge o les forces internes. Una de les possibles causes de soroll és aquella que serà l’objecte d’estudi en aquest projecte de tesi doctoral: la presència dintre del LTP de camps magnètics, que exerceixen una força sobre les masses de prova, la seva estimació i el seu control, prenent en compte les caracterírstiques magnètiques de l’experiment i la dinàmica del satèl•lit.