Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads

In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.

ADOS: an educational primary prevention programme for preventing excess body weight in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of adolescent obesity has increased considerably over the past decade in Switzerland and has become a serious public health problem in Europe. Prevention of obesity using various comprehensive programmes appears to be very promising, although we must admit that several interventions had generally disappointing results compared with the objectives and target initially fixed. Holistic programmes including nutritional education combined with promotion of physical activity and behaviour modification constitute the key factors in the prevention of childhood and adolescent obesity. The purpose of this programme was to incorporate nutrition/physical education as well as psychological aspects in selected secondary schools (9th grade, 14-17 years). METHODS: The educational strategy was based on the development of a series of 13 practical workshops covering wide areas such as physical inactivity, body composition, sugar, energy density, invisible lipids, how to read food labels, is meal duration important? Do you eat with pleasure or not? Do you eat because you are hungry? Emotional eating. For teachers continuing education, a basic highly illustrated guide was developed as a companion booklet to the workshops. These materials were first validated by biology, physical education, dietician and psychologist teachers as well as school medical officers. RESULTS: Teachers considered the practical educational materials innovative and useful, motivational and easy to understand. Up to now (early 2008), the programme has been implemented in 50 classes or more from schools originating from three areas in the French part of Switzerland. Based on the 1-week pedometer value assessed before and after the 1 school-year programme, an initial evaluation indicated that overall physical placidity was significantly decreased as evidenced by a significant rise in the number of steps per day. CONCLUSION: Future evaluation will provide more information on the effectiveness of the ADOS programme.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Co-Movement, Spillovers and Excess Returns in Global Bond Markets

This paper investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement, which is mainly attributed to shocks to non-fundamentals. Global fundamentals, especially global inflation, affect yields through a ‘policy channel’ and a ‘risk compensation channel’, but the effects through two channels are offset. This evidence explains the unsatisfactory performance of fundamentals-driven term structure models. Our approach delineates asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. The proposed model is robust as identified factors has significant explanatory power of excess returns. The finding that global inflation uncertainty is useful in explaining realized excess returns does not rule out regime changing as a source of non-fundamental fluctuations.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Derivation of soil-specific streaming potential electrical parameters from hydrodynamic characteristics of partially saturated soils

Water movement in unsaturated soils gives rise to measurable electrical potential differences that are related to the flow direction and volumetric fluxes, as well as to the soil properties themselves. Laboratory and field data suggest that these so-called streaming potentials may be several orders of magnitudes larger than theoretical predictions that only consider the influence of the relative permeability and electrical conductivity on the self potential (SP) data. Recent work has improved predictions somewhat by considering how the volumetric excess charge in the pore space scales with the inverse of water saturation. We present a new theoretical approach that uses the flux-averaged excess charge, not the volumetric excess charge, to predict streaming potentials. We present relationships for how this effective excess charge varies with water saturation for typical soil properties using either the water retention or the relative permeability function. We find large differences between soil types and the predictions based on the relative permeability function display the best agreement with field data. The new relationships better explain laboratory data than previous work and allow us to predict the recorded magnitudes of the streaming potentials following a rainfall event in sandy loam, whereas previous models predict values that are three orders of magnitude too small. We suggest that the strong signals in unsaturated media can be used to gain information about fluxes (including very small ones related to film flow), but also to constrain the relative permeability function, the water retention curve, and the relative electrical conductivity function.

Evaluation of the molluscicidal properties of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii (n. e. b.) (Euphorbiaceae) - 1: experimental test in a lentic habitat

The latex of Euphorbia splendens var. hislopii, at concentrations between 5 to 12 mg/l, kills 100% of the population of Biomphalaria glabrata in a lentic habitat, after 24 h. The lyophilized latex, stocked for 18 months, killed only 34.2% of the snails, at the concentration of 5 mg/l, and 96.0% at 12 mg/l. No lethal effect was observed among Pomacea haustrum exposed to the same concentrations of the molluscicide.

Some biological properties of the human amniotic membrane interferon

Human amniotic interferon was investigated to define the species specificity of its antiviral action and compare its anti-cellular and NK cell stimulating activities with those of other human interferons. The antiviral effect was titrated in bovine (RV-IAL) and monkey (VERO) cells. Amniotic interferon exhibited, in bovine cells, 5% of the activity seen in monkey cells, while alpha interferon displayed 200%. No effect was detected with either beta or gamma interferon in bovine cells. Daudi cells were exposed to different concentrations of various interferons and the cell numbers were determined. The anticellular effect of the amniotic interferon reached its peak on the third day of incubation. Results suggested a higher activity for alpha and gamma interferons and a lower activity for beta when compared to amniotic interferon. Using total mononuclear cells as effector cells and K 562 as target cell in a 51Cr release assay, it was demonstrated that low concentrations of amniotic interferon consistently stimulated NK cell activity in cells derived from several donors, the results indicating a higher level of activity with this interferon than with alpha and beta interferons.

Increased plasticity of the stiffness of melanoma cells correlates with their acquisition of metastatic properties.

The stiffness of tumor cells varies during cancer progression. In particular, metastatic carcinoma cells analyzed by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) appear softer than non-invasive and normal cells. Here we examined by AFM how the stiffness of melanoma cells varies during progression from non-invasive Radial Growth Phase (RGP) to invasive Vertical Growth Phase (VGP) and to metastatic tumors. We show that transformation of melanocytes to RGP and to VGP cells is characterized by decreased cell stiffness. However, further progression to metastatic melanoma is accompanied by increased cell stiffness and the acquisition of higher plasticity by tumor cells, which is manifested by their ability to greatly augment or reduce their stiffness in response to diverse adhesion conditions. We conclude that increased plasticity, rather than decreased stiffness as suggested for other tumor types, is a marker of melanoma malignancy. These findings advise caution about the potential use of AFM for melanoma diagnosis. FROM THE CLINICAL EDITOR: This study investigates the changes to cellular stiffness in metastatic melanoma cells examined via atomic force microscopy. The results demonstrate that increased plasticity is a marker of melanoma malignancy, as opposed to decreased stiffness.

Partial isolation and some properties of enterotoxin produced by Bacillus cereus strains

Extracellular proteins produced by Bacillus cereus AL-42 and AL-15 were fractioned by chromatography on QAE-Sephadex and Sephadex G75. This last chromatographic process resulted in three peaks. The major peak showed vascular permeability activity to rabbits, lethality to mice, and cytotoxicity to Vero and Hela cells. The analysis by SDS-PAGE after ultrafiltration confirm recent findings that the enterotoxin is a compound with molecular mass > 30.000.

Statistical properties of subgroups of free groups

The usual way to investigate the statistical properties of finitely generated subgroups of free groups, and of finite presentations of groups, is based on the so-called word-based distribution: subgroups are generated (finite presentations are determined) by randomly chosen k-tuples of reduced words, whose maximal length is allowed to tend to infinity. In this paper we adopt a different, though equally natural point of view: we investigate the statistical properties of the same objects, but with respect to the so-called graph-based distribution, recently introduced by Bassino, Nicaud and Weil. Here, subgroups (and finite presentations) are determined by randomly chosen Stallings graphs whose number of vertices tends to infinity. Our results show that these two distributions behave quite differently from each other, shedding a new light on which properties of finitely generated subgroups can be considered frequent or rare. For example, we show that malnormal subgroups of a free group are negligible in the raph-based distribution, while they are exponentially generic in the word-based distribution. Quite surprisingly, a random finite presentation generically presents the trivial group in this new distribution, while in the classical one it is known to generically present an infinite hyperbolic group.

Discharge properties of single neurons in the dorsal nucleus of the lateral lemniscus of the rat.

The aim of the present study was to characterize the discharge properties of single neurons in the dorsal nucleus of the lateral lemniscus (DNLL) of the rat. In the absence of acoustic stimulation, two types of spontaneous discharge patterns were observed: units tended to fire in a bursting or in a nonbursting mode. The distribution of units in the DNLL based on spontaneous firing rate followed a rostrocaudal gradient: units with high spontaneous rates were most commonly located in the rostral part of the DNLL, whereas in the caudal part units had lower spontaneous discharge rates. The most common response pattern of DNLL units to 200 ms binaural noise bursts contained a prominent onset response followed by a lower but steady-state response and an inhibitory response in the early-off period. Thresholds of response to noise bursts were on average higher for DNLL units than for units recorded in the inferior colliculus under the same experimental conditions. The DNLL units were arranged according to a mediolateral sensitivity gradient with the lowest threshold units in the most lateral part of the nucleus. In the rat, as in other mammals, the most common DNLL binaural input type was an excitatory response to contralateral ear stimulation and inhibitory response to ipsilateral ear stimulation (EI type). Pure tone bursts were in general a more effective stimulus compared to noise bursts. Best frequency (BF) was established for 97 DNLL units and plotted according to their spatial location. The DNLL exhibits a loose tonotopic organization, where there is a concentric pattern with high BF units located in the most dorsal and ventral parts of the DNLL and lower BF units in the middle part of the nucleus.

Trypanosoma cruzi: metacyclogenesis in vitro - I. Changes in the properties of metacyclic trypomastigotes maintained in the laboratory by different methods

In this work we have studied the modifications in the biological properties of Trypanosoma cruzi when the parasite is maintained for a long time in axenic culture. The studies were done with a clone from an avirulent strain (Dm30L) and a non-cloned virulent strain (EP) of T. cruzi. Both parasiteswere maintained, for at least three years, by successive triatomine/mouse alternate passage (control condition), or by serial passage in axenic medium (culture condition), or only in the mouse (mouse condition). The comparison between parasites of culture and control condition showed that metacyclogenesis capacity was reduced in the former and that the resulting metacyclics displayed an attenuatedvirulence. In order to compare the virulence of metacyclics from the urine of the insect vector, Rhodnius prolixus were infected by artificial feeding with parasites of the control or culture condition. After three triatomine/triatomine passages, there was observed an almost identical biological behavior for these parasites, hence indicating that the maintenance of T. cruzi for a long time in axenic culture affects the differentiation capacity and the virulence of the parasite. Additionally, it was demonstrated that it is possible to maintain T. cruzi exclusively through passages in the invertebrate host.