846 resultados para Electricity Demand, Causality, Cointegration Analysis
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STUDY DESIGN: Ex vivo in vitro study evaluating a novel intervertebral disc/endplate culture system. OBJECTIVES: To establish a whole-organ intervertebral disc culture model for the study of disc degeneration in vitro, including the characterization of basic cell and organ function. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: With current in vivo models for the study of disc and endplate degeneration, it remains difficult to investigate the complex disc metabolism and signaling cascades. In contrast, more controlled but simplified in vitro systems using isolated cells or disc fragments are difficult to culture due to the unconstrained conditions, with often-observed cell death or cell dedifferentiation. Therefore, there is a demand for a controlled culture model with preserved cell function that offers the possibility to investigate disc and endplate pathologies in a structurally intact organ. METHODS: Naturally constrained intervertebral disc/endplate units from rabbits were cultured in multi-well plates. Cell viability, metabolic activity, matrix composition, and matrix gene expression profile were monitored using the Live/Dead cell viability test (Invitrogen, Basel, Switzerland), tetrazolium salt reduction (WST-8), proteoglycan and deoxyribonucleic acid quantification assays, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Viability and organ integrity were preserved for at least 4 weeks, while proteoglycan and deoxyribonucleic acid content decreased slightly, and matrix genes exhibited a degenerative profile with up-regulation of type I collagen and suppression of collagen type II and aggrecan genes. Additionally, cell metabolic activity was reduced to one third of the initial value. CONCLUSIONS: Naturally constrained intervertebral rabbit discs could be cultured for several weeks without losing cell viability. Structural integrity and matrix composition were retained. However, the organ responded to the artificial environment with a degenerative gene expression pattern and decreased metabolic rate. Therefore, the described system serves as a promising in vitro model to study disc degeneration in a whole organ.
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Searching for the neural correlates of visuospatial processing using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is usually done in an event-related framework of cognitive subtraction, applying a paradigm comprising visuospatial cognitive components and a corresponding control task. Besides methodological caveats of the cognitive subtraction approach, the standard general linear model with fixed hemodynamic response predictors bears the risk of being underspecified. It does not take into account the variability of the blood oxygen level-dependent signal response due to variable task demand and performance on the level of each single trial. This underspecification may result in reduced sensitivity regarding the identification of task-related brain regions. In a rapid event-related fMRI study, we used an extended general linear model including single-trial reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictors for the analysis of an angle discrimination task. In addition to the already known regions in superior and inferior parietal lobule, mapping the reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictor revealed a more specific network including task demand-dependent regions not being detectable using the cognitive subtraction method, such as bilateral caudate nucleus and insula, right inferior frontal gyrus and left precentral gyrus.
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Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.
Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan
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Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.
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As the demand for miniature products and components continues to increase, the need for manufacturing processes to provide these products and components has also increased. To meet this need, successful macroscale processes are being scaled down and applied at the microscale. Unfortunately, many challenges have been experienced when directly scaling down macro processes. Initially, frictional effects were believed to be the largest challenge encountered. However, in recent studies it has been found that the greatest challenge encountered has been with size effects. Size effect is a broad term that largely refers to the thickness of the material being formed and how this thickness directly affects the product dimensions and manufacturability. At the microscale, the thickness becomes critical due to the reduced number of grains. When surface contact between the forming tools and the material blanks occur at the macroscale, there is enough material (hundreds of layers of material grains) across the blank thickness to compensate for material flow and the effect of grain orientation. At the microscale, there may be under 10 grains across the blank thickness. With a decreased amount of grains across the thickness, the influence of the grain size, shape and orientation is significant. Any material defects (either natural occurring or ones that occur as a result of the material preparation) have a significant role in altering the forming potential. To date, various micro metal forming and micro materials testing equipment setups have been constructed at the Michigan Tech lab. Initially, the research focus was to create a micro deep drawing setup to potentially build micro sensor encapsulation housings. The research focus shifted to micro metal materials testing equipment setups. These include the construction and testing of the following setups: a micro mechanical bulge test, a micro sheet tension test (testing micro tensile bars), a micro strain analysis (with the use of optical lithography and chemical etching) and a micro sheet hydroforming bulge test. Recently, the focus has shifted to study a micro tube hydroforming process. The intent is to target fuel cells, medical, and sensor encapsulation applications. While the tube hydroforming process is widely understood at the macroscale, the microscale process also offers some significant challenges in terms of size effects. Current work is being conducted in applying direct current to enhance micro tube hydroforming formability. Initially, adding direct current to various metal forming operations has shown some phenomenal results. The focus of current research is to determine the validity of this process.
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The work described in this thesis had two objectives. The first objective was to develop a physically based computational model that could be used to predict the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity of Pb1-xSnxTe alloys over the 400 K to 700 K temperature as a function of Sn content and doping level. The second objective was to determine how the secondary phase inclusions observed in Pb1-xSnxTe alloys made by consolidating mechanically alloyed elemental powders impact the ability of the material to harvest waste heat and generate electricity in the 400 K to 700 K temperature range. The motivation for this work was that though the promise of this alloy as an unusually efficient thermoelectric power generator material in the 400 K to 700 K range had been demonstrated in the literature, methods to reproducibly control and subsequently optimize the materials thermoelectric figure of merit remain elusive. Mechanical alloying, though not typically used to fabricate these alloys, is a potential method for cost-effectively engineering these properties. Given that there are deviations from crystalline perfection in mechanically alloyed material such as secondary phase inclusions, the question arises as to whether these defects are detrimental to thermoelectric function or alternatively, whether they enhance thermoelectric function of the alloy. The hypothesis formed at the onset of this work was that the small secondary phase SnO2 inclusions observed to be present in the mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe would increase the thermoelectric figure of merit of the material over the temperature range of interest. It was proposed that the increase in the figure of merit would arise because the inclusions in the material would not reduce the electrical conductivity to as great an extent as the thermal conductivity. If this were to be true, then the experimentally measured electronic conductivity in mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe alloys that have these inclusions would not be less than that expected in alloys without these inclusions while the portion of the thermal conductivity that is not due to charge carriers (the lattice thermal conductivity) would be less than what would be expected from alloys that do not have these inclusions. Furthermore, it would be possible to approximate the observed changes in the electrical and thermal transport properties using existing physical models for the scattering of electrons and phonons by small inclusions. The approach taken to investigate this hypothesis was to first experimentally characterize the mobile carrier concentration at room temperature along with the extent and type of secondary phase inclusions present in a series of three mechanically alloyed Pb1-xSnxTe alloys with different Sn content. Second, the physically based computational model was developed. This model was used to determine what the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, total thermal conductivity, and the portion of the thermal conductivity not due to mobile charge carriers would be in these particular Pb1-xSnxTe alloys if there were to be no secondary phase inclusions. Third, the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient and total thermal conductivity was experimentally measured for these three alloys with inclusions present at elevated temperatures. The model predictions for electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient were directly compared to the experimental elevated temperature electrical transport measurements. The computational model was then used to extract the lattice thermal conductivity from the experimentally measured total thermal conductivity. This lattice thermal conductivity was then compared to what would be expected from the alloys in the absence of secondary phase inclusions. Secondary phase inclusions were determined by X-ray diffraction analysis to be present in all three alloys to a varying extent. The inclusions were found not to significantly degrade electrical conductivity at temperatures above ~ 400 K in these alloys, though they do dramatically impact electronic mobility at room temperature. It is shown that, at temperatures above ~ 400 K, electrons are scattered predominantly by optical and acoustical phonons rather than by an alloy scattering mechanism or the inclusions. The experimental electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient data at elevated temperatures were found to be within ~ 10 % of what would be expected for material without inclusions. The inclusions were not found to reduce the lattice thermal conductivity at elevated temperatures. The experimentally measured thermal conductivity data was found to be consistent with the lattice thermal conductivity that would arise due to two scattering processes: Phonon phonon scattering (Umklapp scattering) and the scattering of phonons by the disorder induced by the formation of a PbTe-SnTe solid solution (alloy scattering). As opposed to the case in electrical transport, the alloy scattering mechanism in thermal transport is shown to be a significant contributor to the total thermal resistance. An estimation of the extent to which the mean free time between phonon scattering events would be reduced due to the presence of the inclusions is consistent with the above analysis of the experimental data. The first important result of this work was the development of an experimentally validated, physically based computational model that can be used to predict the electronic conductivity, Seebeck coefficient, and thermal conductivity of Pb1-xSnxTe alloys over the 400 K to 700 K temperature as a function of Sn content and doping level. This model will be critical in future work as a tool to first determine what the highest thermoelectric figure of merit one can expect from this alloy system at a given temperature and, second, as a tool to determine the optimum Sn content and doping level to achieve this figure of merit. The second important result of this work is the determination that the secondary phase inclusions that were observed to be present in the Pb1-xSnxTe made by mechanical alloying do not keep the material from having the same electrical and thermal transport that would be expected from “perfect" single crystal material at elevated temperatures. The analytical approach described in this work will be critical in future investigations to predict how changing the size, type, and volume fraction of secondary phase inclusions can be used to impact thermal and electrical transport in this materials system.
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With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.
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The climate change narrative has changed from one of mitigation to one of adaptation. Governments around the world have created climate change frameworks which address how the country can better cope with the expected and unexpected changes due to global climate change. In an effort to do so, federal governments of Canada and the United States, as well as some provinces and states within these countries, have created detailed documents which outline what steps must be taken to adapt to these changes. However, not much is mentioned about how these steps will be translated in to policy, and how that policy will eventually be implemented. To examine the ability of governments to acknowledge and incorporate the plethora of scientific information to policy, consideration must be made for policy capacity. This report focuses on three sectors: water supply and demand; drought and flood planning; and forest and grassland ecosystems, and the word ‘capacity’ as related to nine different forms of policy capacity acknowledged in these frameworks. Qualitative content analysis using NVivo was carried out on fifty four frameworks and the results obtained show that there is a greater consideration for managerial capacity compared to analytical or political capacity. The data also indicated that although there were more Canadian frameworks which referred to policy capacity, the frameworks from the United States actually considered policy capacity to a greater degree.
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This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.
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Two of the indicators of the UN Millennium Development Goals ensuring environmental sustainability are energy use and per capita carbon dioxide emissions. The increasing urbanization and increasing world population may require increased energy use in order to transport enough safe drinking water to communities. In addition, the increase in water use would result in increased energy consumption, thereby resulting in increased green-house gas emissions that promote global climate change. The study of multiple Municipal Drinking Water Distribution Systems (MDWDSs) that relates various MDWDS aspects--system components and properties--to energy use is strongly desirable. The understanding of the relationship between system aspects and energy use aids in energy-efficient design. In this study, components of a MDWDS, and/or the characteristics associated with the component are termed as MDWDS aspects (hereafter--system aspects). There are many aspects of MDWDSs that affect the energy usage. Three system aspects (1) system-wide water demand, (2) storage tank parameters, and (3) pumping stations were analyzed in this study. The study involved seven MDWDSs to understand the relationship between the above-mentioned system aspects in relation with energy use. A MDWDSs model, EPANET 2.0, was utilized to analyze the seven systems. Six of the systems were real and one was a hypothetical system. The study presented here is unique in its statistical approach using seven municipal water distribution systems. The first system aspect studied was system-wide water demand. The analysis involved analyzing seven systems for the variation of water demand and its impact on energy use. To quantify the effects of water use reduction on energy use in a municipal water distribution system, the seven systems were modeled and the energy usage quantified for various amounts of water conservation. It was found that the effect of water conservation on energy use was linear for all seven systems and that all the average values of all the systems' energy use plotted on the same line with a high R 2 value. From this relationship, it can be ascertained that a 20% reduction in water demand results in approximately a 13% savings in energy use for all seven systems analyzed. This figure might hold true for many similar systems that are dominated by pumping and not gravity driven. The second system aspect analyzed was storage tank(s) parameters. Various tank parameters: (1) tank maximum water levels, (2) tank elevation, and (3) tank diameter were considered in this part of the study. MDWDSs use a significant amount of electrical energy for the pumping of water from low elevations (usually a source) to higher ones (usually storage tanks). The use of electrical energy has an effect on pollution emissions and, therefore, potential global climate change as well. Various values of these tank parameters were modeled on seven MDWDSs of various sizes using a network solver and the energy usage recorded. It was found that when averaged over all seven analyzed systems (1) the reduction of maximum tank water level by 50% results in a 2% energy reduction, (2) energy use for a change in tank elevation is system specific, and (2) a reduction of tank diameter of 50% results in approximately a 7% energy savings. The third system aspect analyzed in this study was pumping station parameters. A pumping station consists of one or more pumps. The seven systems were analyzed to understand the effect of the variation of pump horsepower and the number of booster stations on energy use. It was found that adding booster stations could save energy depending upon the system characteristics. For systems with flat topography, a single main pumping station was found to use less energy. In systems with a higher-elevation neighborhood, however, one or more booster pumps with a reduced main pumping station capacity used less energy. The energy savings for the seven systems was dependent on the number of boosters and ranged from 5% to 66% for the analyzed five systems with higher elevation neighborhoods (S3, S4, S5, S6, and S7). No energy savings was realized for the remaining two flat topography systems, S1, and S2. The present study analyzed and established the relationship between various system aspects and energy use in seven MDWDSs. This aids in estimating the amount of energy savings in MDWDSs. This energy savings would ultimately help reduce Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions including per capita CO 2 emissions thereby potentially lowering the global climate change effect. This will in turn contribute to meeting the MDG of ensuring environmental sustainability.
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Clinical studies indicate that exaggerated postprandial lipemia is linked to the progression of atherosclerosis, leading cause of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD). CVD is a multi-factorial disease with complex etiology and according to the literature postprandial Triglycerides (TG) can be used as an independent CVD risk factor. Aim of the current study is to construct an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based system for the identification of the most important gene-gene and/or gene-environmental interactions that contribute to a fast or slow postprandial metabolism of TG in blood and consequently to investigate the causality of postprandial TG response. The design and development of the system is based on a dataset of 213 subjects who underwent a two meals fatty prandial protocol. For each of the subjects a total of 30 input variables corresponding to genetic variations, sex, age and fasting levels of clinical measurements were known. Those variables provide input to the system, which is based on the combined use of Parameter Decreasing Method (PDM) and an ANN. The system was able to identify the ten (10) most informative variables and achieve a mean accuracy equal to 85.21%.
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Increasing demand for marketing accountability requires an efficient allocation of marketing expenditures. Managers who know the elasticity of their marketing instruments can allocate their budgets optimally. Meta-analyses offer a basis for deriving benchmark elasticities for advertising. Although they provide a variety of valuable insights, a major shortcoming of prior meta-analyses is that they report only generalized results as the disaggregated raw data are not made available. This problem is highly relevant because coding of empirical studies, at least to a certain extent, involves subjective judgment. For this reason, meta-studies would be more valuable if researchers and practitioners had access to disaggregated data allowing them to conduct further analyses of individual, e.g., product-level-specific, interests. We are the first to address this gap by providing (1) an advertising elasticity database (AED) and (2) empirical generalizations about advertising elasticities and their determinants. Our findings indicate that the average current-period advertising elasticity is 0.09, which is substantially smaller than the value 0f 0.12 that was recently reported by Sethuraman, Tellis, and Briesch (2011). Furthermore, our meta-analysis reveals a wide range of significant determinants of advertising elasticity. For example, we find that advertising elasticities are higher (i) for hedonic and experience goods than for other goods; (ii) for new than for established goods; (iii) when advertising is measured in gross rating points (GRP) instead of absolute terms; and (iv) when the lagged dependent or lagged advertising variable is omitted.
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Energy efficiency has become an important research topic in intralogistics. Especially in this field the focus is placed on automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) utilizing stacker cranes as these systems are widespread and consume a significant portion of the total energy demand of intralogistical systems. Numerical simulation models were developed to calculate the energy demand rather precisely for discrete single and dual command cycles. Unfortunately these simulation models are not suitable to perform fast calculations to determine a mean energy demand value of a complete storage aisle. For this purpose analytical approaches would be more convenient but until now analytical approaches only deliver results for certain configurations. In particular, for commonly used stacker cranes equipped with an intermediate circuit connection within their drive configuration there is no analytical approach available to calculate the mean energy demand. This article should address this research gap and present a calculation approach which enables planners to quickly calculate the energy demand of these systems.
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Low self-esteem and depression are strongly related, but there is not yet consistent evidence on the nature of the relation. Whereas the vulnerability model states that low self-esteem contributes to depression, the scar model states that depression erodes self-esteem. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the models are specific for depression or whether they are also valid for anxiety. We evaluated the vulnerability and scar models of low self-esteem and depression, and low self-esteem and anxiety, by meta-analyzing the available longitudinal data (covering 77 studies on depression and 18 studies on anxiety). The mean age of the samples ranged from childhood to old age. In the analyses, we used a random-effects model and examined prospective effects between the variables, controlling for prior levels of the predicted variables. For depression, the findings supported the vulnerability model: The effect of self-esteem on depression (β = -.16) was significantly stronger than the effect of depression on self-esteem (β = -.08). In contrast, the effects between low self-esteem and anxiety were relatively balanced: Self-esteem predicted anxiety with β = -.10, and anxiety predicted self-esteem with β = -.08. Moderator analyses were conducted for the effect of low self-esteem on depression; these suggested that the effect is not significantly influenced by gender, age, measures of self-esteem and depression, or time lag between assessments. If future research supports the hypothesized causality of the vulnerability effect of low self-esteem on depression, interventions aimed at increasing self-esteem might be useful in reducing the risk of depression.
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Cloud computing provides a promising solution to the genomics data deluge problem resulting from the advent of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology. Based on the concepts of “resources-on-demand” and “pay-as-you-go”, scientists with no or limited infrastructure can have access to scalable and cost-effective computational resources. However, the large size of NGS data causes a significant data transfer latency from the client’s site to the cloud, which presents a bottleneck for using cloud computing services. In this paper, we provide a streaming-based scheme to overcome this problem, where the NGS data is processed while being transferred to the cloud. Our scheme targets the wide class of NGS data analysis tasks, where the NGS sequences can be processed independently from one another. We also provide the elastream package that supports the use of this scheme with individual analysis programs or with workflow systems. Experiments presented in this paper show that our solution mitigates the effect of data transfer latency and saves both time and cost of computation.