Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Biogeochemical evolution of a marine shore tailings deposit during bioremediation

Summary : Mining activities produce enormous amounts of waste material known as tailings which are composed of fine to medium size particles. These tailings often contain sulfides, which oxidation can lead to acid and metal contamination of water; therefore they need to be remediated. In this work a tailings bioremediation approach was investigated by an interdisciplinary study including geochemistry, mineralogy and microbiology. The aim of the work was to study the effect of the implementation of wetland above oxidizing tailings on the hydrogeology and the biogeochemical element cycles, and to assess the system evolution over time. To reach these goals, biogeochemical processes occurring in a marine shore tailings deposit were investigated. The studied tailings deposit is located at the Bahìa de Ite, Pacific Ocean, southern Peru, where between 1940 and 1996 the tailings were discharged from the two porphyry copper mines Cuajone and Toquepala. After the end of deposition, a remediation approach was initiated in 1997 with a wetland implementation above the oxidizing tailings. Around 90% of the tailings deposits (total 16 km2) were thus remediated, except the central delta area and some areas close to the shoreline. The multi-stable isotope study showed that the tailings were saturated with fresh water in spite of the marine setting, due to the high hydraulic gradient resulting from the wetland implementation. Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was the major source of SO4 2-, C1-, Na+, Fe2+, and Mn2+ input into the tailings at the original shelf-seawater interface. The geochemical study (aquatic geochemistry and X-Ray diffraction (XRD) and sequential extractions from the solid fraction) showed that iron and sulfur oxidation were the main processes in the non-remediated tailings, which showed a top a low-pH oxidation zone with strong accumulation of efflorescent salts at the surface due to capillary upward transport of heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Cd, Co, and Ni) in the arid climate. The study showed also that the implementation of the wetland resulted in very low concentrations of heavy metals in solution (mainly under the detection limit) due to the near neutral pH and more reducing conditions (100-150 mV). The heavy metals, which were taken from solution, precipitated as hydroxides and sulfides or were bound to organic matter. The bacterial community composition analysis by Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (T-RFLP) and cloning and sequencing of 16S rRNA genes combined with a detailed statistical analysis revealed a high correlation between the bacterial distribution and the geochemical variables. Acidophilic autotrophic oxidizing bacteria were dominating the oxidizing tailings, whereas neutrophilic and heterotrophic reducing bacteria were driving the biogeochemical processes in the remediated tailings below the wetland. At the subsurface of the remediated tailings, an iron cycling was highlighted with oxidation and reduction processes due to micro-aerophilic niches provided by the plant rhizosphere in this overall reducing environment. The in situ bioremediation experiment showed that the main parameter to take into account for the effectiveness was the water table and chemistry which controls the system. The constructed remediation cells were more efficient and rapid in metal removal when saturation conditions were available. This study showed that the bioremediation by wetland implementation could be an effective and rapid treatment for some sulfidic mine tailings deposits. However, the water saturation of the tailings has to be managed on a long-term basis in order to guarantee stability. Résumé : L'activité minière produit d'énormes quantités de déchets géologiques connus sous le nom de « tailings » composées de particules de taille fine à moyenne. Ces déchets contiennent souvent des sulfures dont l'oxydation conduit à la formation d'effluents acides contaminés en métaux, d'où la nécessité d'effectuer une remédiation des sites de stockage concernés. Le but de ce travail est dans un premier temps d'étudier l'effet de la bio-remédiation d'un dépôt de tailings oxydés sur l'hydrogéologie du système et les cycles biogéochimiques des éléments et en second lieu, d'évaluer l'évolution du processus de remédiation dans le temps. Le site étudié dans ce travail est situé dans la Bahía de Ite, au sud du Pérou, au bord de l'Océan Pacifique. Les déchets miniers en question sont déposés dans un environnement marin. De 1940 à 1996, les déchets de deux mines de porphyre cuprifère - Cuajone et Toquepala - ont été acheminés sur le site via la rivière Locumba. En 1997, une première remédiation a été initiée avec la construction d'une zone humide sur les tailings. Depuis, environ 90% de la surface du dépôt (16 km2) a été traité, les parties restantes étant la zone centrale du delta du Locumba et certaines zones proches de la plage. Malgré la proximité de l'océan, les études isotopiques menées dans le cadre de ce travail ont montré que les tailings étaient saturés en eau douce. Cette saturation est due à la pression hydraulique résultant de la mise en place des zones humides. Un écoulement d'eau souterrain sous-marin a été à détecté à l'interface entre les résidus et l'ancien fond marin. En raison de la géologie locale, il constitue une source d'entrée de SO4 2-, Cl-, Na+, FeZ+, et Mn2+ dans le système. L'analyse de la géochimie aquatique, la Diffraction aux Rayons X (XRD) et l'extraction séquentielle ont montré que l'oxydation du fer et .des sulfures est le principal processus se produisant dans les déchets non remédiés. Ceci a entraîné le développement d'une zone d'oxydation à pH bas induisant une forte accumulation des sels efflorescents, conséquence de la migration capillaire des métaux lourds (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Cd, Co et Ni) de la solution vers la surface dans ce climat aride. Cette étude a montré également que la construction de la zone humide a eu comme résultats une précipitation des métaux dans des phases minérales en raison du pH neutre et des conditions réductrices (100-150mV). Les métaux lourds ont précipité sous la forme d'hydroxydes et de sulfures ou sont adsorbés à la matière organique. L'analyse de la composition de la communauté bactérienne à l'aide la technique T-RFLP (Terminal Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism) et par le clonage/séquençage des gènes de l'ARNr 16S a été combinée à une statistique détaillée. Cette dernière a révélé une forte corrélation entre la distribution de bactéries spécifiques et la géochimie : Les bactéries autotrophes acidophiles dominent dans les déchets oxydés non remédiés, tandis que des bactéries hétérotrophes neutrophiles ont mené les processus microbiens dans les déchets remédiés sous la zone humide. Sous la surface de la zone humide, nos analyses ont également mis en évidence un cycle du fer par des processus d'oxydoréduction rendus possibles par la présence de niches micro-aérées par la rhizosphère dans cet environnement réducteur. L'expérience de bio-remédiation in situ a montré que les paramètres clés qui contrôlent l'efficacité du traitement sont le niveau de la nappe aquifère et la chimie de l'eau. Les cellules de remédiation se sont montrées plus efficaces et plus rapides lorsque le système a pu être saturé en eau. Finalement, cette étude a montré que la bio-remédiation de déchets miniers par la construction de zones humides est un moyen de traitement efficace, rapide et peu coûteux. Cependant, la saturation en eau du système doit être gérée sur le long terme afin de garantir la stabilité de l'ensemble du système.

Development of a well-defined medium for the in vitro maturation of immature bovine cumulus-oocyte complexes.

PURPOSE: Our purpose was to develop a well-defined medium for the in vitro maturation (IVM) of immature bovine cumulus-oocyte complexes (COC). METHODS: The COC were cultured in the presence of three protein supplementations: fetal bovine serum (FBS), bovine serum albumin, and Synthetic Serum Substitute. The embryos obtained after in vitro fertilization of IVM oocytes were cocultured with Vero cells and their development to the morula and blastocyst stages was studied. RESULTS: When FBS was absent from the IVM medium, a significantly lower fertilization rate was observed, followed by a decrease in the percentage of embryos reaching the blastocyst stage. When FBS was replaced by a defined protein supplementation, the best results were obtained with Synthetic Serum Substitute. CONCLUSIONS: Adequate protein supplementation of the IVM medium optimizes the fertilization rate and the development of bovine IVM oocytes. The implication of these results in the human field is discussed.

Modelització de les propietats òptiques de partícules metàl•liques en matriu dielèctrica

En el marc del projecte "Modelització de les propietats òptiques de partícules metàl•liques en matriu dielèctrica" s'han desenvolupat un conjunt d'eines numèriques que permeten avançar en l'ús de l'espectroscòpia òptica per a l'obtenció d'informació morfològica de materials compostos consistents en partícules metàl•liques en matriu dielèctrica. S'han implementat esquemes numèrics per a calcular les propietats òptiques de materials compostos on les partícules poden presentar una distribució de mides i formes i diferent graus d'ordenament espacial. Les simulacions s'han realitzat a dos nivells: i) amb l’aproximació quasi-estàtica, que permet descriure el comportament d'aquests materials en termes de constants òptiques efectives i ii) amb càlculs electrodinàmics exactes, que han servit per avaluar la validesa de l’aproximació anterior i que han permès d'estudiar la interacció de partícules amb feixos de llum focalitzats o amb polarització no homogènia. A través de l’anàlisi d'aquestes simulacions, s'han desenvolupat models senzills que permeten parametritzar la influència de diferents quantitats físiques en el comportament òptic del material. Aquests models s'han implementat en un programari de càlcul que permeten trobar el valor òptim dels paràmetres físics d'interès mitjançant l'ajust d'espectres òptics. Els models s'han avaluat amb l'anàlisi de dades experimentals subministrades per altres laboratoris.

Individual reproductive success and effective population size in the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula.

In order to investigate the determinants of effective population size in the socially monogamous Crocidura russula, the reproductive output of 44 individuals was estimated through genetic assignment methods. The individual variance in breeding success turned out to be surprisingly high, mostly because the males were markedly less monogamous than expected from previous behavioural data. Males paired simultaneously with up to four females and polygynous males had significantly more offspring than monogamous ones. The variance in female reproductive success also exceeded that of a Poisson distribution (though to a lesser extent), partly because females paired with multiply mated males weaned significantly more offspring. Polyandry also occurred occasionally, but only sequentially (i.e. without multiple paternity of litters). Estimates of the effective to census size ratio were ca. 0.60, which excluded the mating system as a potential explanation for the high genetic variance found in this shrew's populations. Our data suggest that gene flow from the neighbourhood (up to one-third of the total recruitment) is the most likely cause of the high levels of genetic diversity observed in this shrew's subpopulations.

Effective Structural Concrete Repair, Volume 1 of 3, Repair of Impact Damaged Prestressed Concrete Beams with CFRP, March 2004

Structural concrete is one of the most commonly used construction materials in the United States. However, due to changes in design specifications, aging, vehicle impact, etc. – there is a need for new procedures for repairing concrete (reinforced or pretressed) superstructures and substructures. Thus, the overall objective of this investigation was to develop innovative cost effective repair methods for various concrete elements. In consultation with the project advisory committee, it was decided to evaluate the following three repair methods: • Carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRPs) for use in repairing damaged prestressed concrete bridges • Fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs) for preventing chloride penetration of bridge columns • Various patch materials The initial results of these evaluations are presented in this three volume final report. Each evaluation is briefly described in the following paragraphs. A more detailed abstract of each evaluation accompanies the volume on that particular investigation.

Increasing the carbon flux toward synthesis of short-chain-length--medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoate in the peroxisome of Saccharomyces cerevisiae through modification of the beta-oxidation cycle.

Short-chain-length-medium-chain-length polyhydroxyalkanoates were synthesized in Saccharomyces cerevisiae from intermediates of the beta-oxidation cycle by expressing the polyhydroxyalkanoate synthases from Aeromonas caviae and Ralstonia eutropha in the peroxisomes. The quantity of polymer produced was increased by using a mutant of the beta-oxidation-associated multifunctional enzyme with low dehydrogenase activity toward R-3-hydroxybutyryl coenzyme A.

Gene finding in the chicken genome

Background: Despite the continuous production of genome sequence for a number of organisms,reliable, comprehensive, and cost effective gene prediction remains problematic. This is particularlytrue for genomes for which there is not a large collection of known gene sequences, such as therecently published chicken genome. We used the chicken sequence to test comparative andhomology-based gene-finding methods followed by experimental validation as an effective genomeannotation method.Results: We performed experimental evaluation by RT-PCR of three different computational genefinders, Ensembl, SGP2 and TWINSCAN, applied to the chicken genome. A Venn diagram wascomputed and each component of it was evaluated. The results showed that de novo comparativemethods can identify up to about 700 chicken genes with no previous evidence of expression, andcan correctly extend about 40% of homology-based predictions at the 5' end.Conclusions: De novo comparative gene prediction followed by experimental verification iseffective at enhancing the annotation of the newly sequenced genomes provided by standardhomology-based methods.

Effective Structural Concrete Repair, Volume 2 of 3, Use of FRP to Prevent Chloride Penetration in Bridge Columns, March 2004

Structural concrete is one of the most commonly used construction materials in the United States. However, due to changes in design specifications, aging, vehicle impact, etc. – there is a need for new procedures for repairing concrete (reinforced or pretressed) superstructures and substructures. Thus, the overall objective of this investigation was to develop innovative cost effective repair methods for various concrete elements. In consultation with the project advisory committee, it was decided to evaluate the following three repair methods: • Carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRPs) for use in repairing damaged prestressed concrete bridges • Fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs) for preventing chloride penetration of bridge columns • Various patch materials The initial results of these evaluations are presented in this three volume final report. Each evaluation is briefly described in the following paragraphs. A more detailed abstract of each evaluation accompanies the volume on that particular investigation.

Effective Structural Concrete Repair, Volume 3 of 3, Evaluation of Repair Materials for Use in Patching Damaged Concrete, March 2004

Structural concrete is one of the most commonly used construction materials in the United States. However, due to changes in design specifications, aging, vehicle impact, etc. – there is a need for new procedures for repairing concrete (reinforced or pretressed) superstructures and substructures. Thus, the overall objective of this investigation was to develop innovative cost effective repair methods for various concrete elements. In consultation with the project advisory committee, it was decided to evaluate the following three repair methods: • Carbon fiber reinforced polymers (CFRPs) for use in repairing damaged prestressed concrete bridges • Fiber reinforced polymers (FRPs) for preventing chloride penetration of bridge columns • Various patch materials The initial results of these evaluations are presented in this three volume final report. Each evaluation is briefly described in the following paragraphs. A more detailed abstract of each evaluation accompanies the volume on that particular investigation.

Supporting the reuse of effective CSCL learning designs through social structure representations

Distance and blended collaborative learning settings are usually characterized by different social structures defined in terms of groups' number, dimension, and composition; these structures are variable and can change within the same activity. This variability poses additional complexity to instructional designers, when they are trying to develop successful experiences from existing designs. This complexity is greatly associated with the fact that learning designs do not render explicit how social structures influenced the decisions of the original designer, and thus whether the social structures of the new setting could preclude the effectiveness of the reused design. This article proposes the usage of new representations (social structure representations, SSRs) able to support unskilled designers in reusing existing learning designs, through the explicit characterization of the social structures and constraints embedded either by the original designers or the reusing teachers, according to well-known principles of good collaborative learning practice. The article also describes an evaluation process that involved university professors, as well as the main findings derived from it. This process supported the initial assumptions about the effectiveness of SSRs, with significant evidence from both qualitative and qualitative data.

Platform for Automatic, Normalized Annotation and Cost-Effective Acquisition of Language Resources for Human Language Technologies: PANACEA

El objetivo de PANACEA es engranar diferentes herramientas avanzadas para construir una fábrica de Recursos Lingüísticos (RL), una línea de producción que automatice los pasos implicados en la adquisición, producción, actualización y mantenimiento de los RL que la Traducción Automática y otras tecnologías lingüísticas, necesitan.

Developing an Effective Construction Training Program for Hispanic Supervisors and Craft Workers, January 2004

Hispanics make up a growing percentage of the craft workers entering the construction industry, and this has created several challenges for American construction companies. This study addresses the situation by investigating training needs for Hispanic construction craft workers and developing a training program for them within the industry. In order to evaluate current craft workers’ conditions within the construction industry, Iowa State University researchers conducted a survey, with 98 Hispanic craft workers as respondents from 10 construction companies, to determine current working conditions. The results confirm that the language barrier is an obstacle for both the Hispanic workers and the English-speaking employees involved in construction projects. As a part of this research, two training courses were designed to help both American construction companies and their Hispanic labor force to overcome the barriers that keep them from succeeding safely and productively. A training course titled English as a Second Language Survival Course was developed to facilitate basic communication between Hispanic workers and their American supervisors using construction-focused terminology. This course was delivered once as a trial run for a two-hour duration and twice for a full-length duration of eight hours. Important feedback was obtained from participants as part of the evaluations of the course. “How much of the course contents will be useful in your working environment” was asked; 40% of workers said “all of it” and 60% said “most of it.” Another question was “Was it worth taking the time to attend the course?” to which 94% answered “definitely” and 6% answered “yes.” A second training course titled Stepping Up to Supervisor Course for Hispanic Construction Workers was also developed to provide an effective tool to help companies promote those Hispanic craft workers whose willingness and skills meet the requirements to advance to a supervisory position in an American construction company. This course will be offered in the spring of 2004.

PANACEA (Platform for Automatic, Normalised Annotation and Cost-Effective Acquisition of Language Resources for Human Language Technologies)

The objective of PANACEA is to build a factory of LRs that automates the stages involved in the acquisition, production, updating and maintenance of LRs required by MT systems and by other applications based on language technologies, and simplifies eventual issues regarding intellectual property rights. This automation will cut down the cost, time and human effort significantly. These reductions of costs and time are the only way to guarantee the continuous supply of LRs that MT and other language technologies will be demanding in the multilingual Europe.