Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Reduced complexity two stage vector quantization

We address the issue of complexity for vector quantization (VQ) of wide-band speech LSF (line spectrum frequency) parameters. The recently proposed switched split VQ (SSVQ) method provides better rate-distortion (R/D) performance than the traditional split VQ (SVQ) method, even at the requirement of lower computational complexity. but at the expense of much higher memory. We develop the two stage SVQ (TsSVQ) method, by which we gain both the memory and computational advantages and still retain good R/D performance. The proposed TsSVQ method uses a full dimensional quantizer in its first stage for exploiting all the higher dimensional coding advantages and then, uses an SVQ method for quantizing the residual vector in the second stage so as to reduce the complexity. We also develop a transform domain residual coding method in this two stage architecture such that it further reduces the computational complexity. To design an effective residual codebook in the second stage, variance normalization of Voronoi regions is carried out which leads to the design of two new methods, referred to as normalized two stage SVQ (NTsSVQ) and normalized two stage transform domain SVQ (NTsTrSVQ). These two new methods have complimentary strengths and hence, they are combined in a switched VQ mode which leads to the further improvement in R/D performance, but retaining the low complexity requirement. We evaluate the performances of new methods for wide-band speech LSF parameter quantization and show their advantages over established SVQ and SSVQ methods.

Modelling growth rate of Penaeus monodon Fabricius in intensively managed ponds: effects of temperature, pond age and stocking density

Records of shrimp growth and water quality made during 12 crops from each of 48 ponds, over a period of 6.5 years, were provided by a Queensland, Australia, commercial shrimp farm, These data were analysed with a new growth model derived from the Gompertz model. The results indicate that water temperature, mortality and pond age significantly affect growth rates. After 180 days, shrimp reach 34 g at constant 30 degrees C, but only 15 g after the same amount of time at 20 degrees C. Mortality, through thinning the density of shrimp in the ponds, increased the growth rate, but the effect is small. With continual production, growth rates at first remained steady, then appeared to decrease for the sixth and seventh crop, after which they have increased steadily with each crop. It appears that conservative pond management, together with a gradual improvement in husbandry techniques, particularly feed management, brought about this change. This has encouraging implications for the long-term sustainability of the farming methods used. The growth model can be used to predict productivity, and hence, profitability, of new aquaculture locations or new production strategies.

Faecal incontinence in childhood : a multidisciplinary approach including biofeedback

One hundred and seven children with faecal incontinence were evaluated and managed over a 3 year period by a multidisciplinary team. After initial clinical assessment, evaluation of defaecatory mechanisms (using a balloon model) and assessment of personal-social development and self-concept were undertaken. Management was based on initial bowel evacuation, short-term laxatives, and habit training involving systematic use of positive reinforcement; 69 children received biofeedback conditioning. Idiopathic megacolon with constipation and soiling was the most common finding (98 cases). Other diagnoses included previously undiagnosed neurogenic bowel (three cases), post-surgical anal anomalies (four cases), and psychogenic encopresis (two cases). Idiopathic megacolon was characterized by decreased rectal sensation, increased threshold for external sphincter relaxation and an inability to evacuate. Faecal incontinence was associated with an undesirably low social self-concept (70% of the 40 evaluated), but was not related to a delay in development (mean general developmental quotient = 105 ± 8, for the 35 tested). Family psychopathology warranting referral for family therapy was found in 14 children (13%). The management programme yielded a short-term (3 months) cure rate of 68% and a long-term (12 months) cure rate of 90%, with 10% having continued soiling which varied from occasional to several incidents/week. No significant improvement in self-concept was observed overall, although marked improvements were observed in some children. We conclude that disordered defaecatory dynamics are a major determinant of faecal incontinence in children. Undesirably low social self-concepts but normal developmental ability accompany this condition. Management is facilitated by a multidisciplinary approach, acknowledging the role of both behavioural and physiological components of the problem. This approach is effective in eradicating soiling in the majority of cases, comparing favourably with other published data.

Correlation of plasma IGF-I concentrations and growth rate in aquacultured finfish: a tool for assessing the potential of new diets

A recently developed radioimmunoassay (RIA) for measuring insulin-like growth factor (IGF-I) in a variety of fish species was used to investigate the correlation between growth rate and circulating IGF-I concentrations of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Southern Bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii). Plasma IGF-I concentration significantly increased with increasing ration size in barramundi and IGF-I concentration was positively correlated to growth rates obtained in Atlantic salmon (r2=0.67) and barramundi (r2=0.65) when fed a variety of diet formulations. IGF-I was also positively correlated to protein concentration (r2=0.59). This evidence suggested that measuring IGF-I concentration may provide a useful tool for monitoring fish growth rate and also as a method to rapidly assess different aquaculture diets. However, no such correlation was demonstrated in the tuna study probably due to seasonal cooling of sea surface temperature shortly before blood was sampled. Thus, some recommendations for the design and sampling strategy of nutritional trials where IGF-I concentrations are measured are discussed

Genetic response to growth rate selection in pigs measured on two feeding levels

From the findings of McPhee et al. (1988), there is an expectation that selection in the growing pig for bodyweight gain measured on restricted feeding will result in favourable responses in the rate and efficiency of growth of lean pork on different levels of feeding. This paper examines this in two lines of Australian Large White pigs which have undergone 3 years of selection for high and for low growth rate over a 6-week period starting at 50 kg liveweight. Over this test period, pigs of both lines are all fed the same total amount of grower food, restricted to an estimated 80% of average ad libitum intake. 'Animal production for a consuming world': proceedings of 9th Congress of the AAAAP Societies and 23rd Biennial Conference of the ASAP and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, (DRF). Sydney, Australia.

Modeling of dynamic material behavior in hot deformation: Forging of Ti-6242

A new method of modeling material behavior which accounts for the dynamic metallurgical processes occurring during hot deformation is presented. The approach in this method is to consider the workpiece as a dissipator of power in the total processing system and to evaluate the dissipated power co-contentJ = ∫o σ ε ⋅dσ from the constitutive equation relating the strain rate (ε) to the flow stress (σ). The optimum processing conditions of temperature and strain rate are those corresponding to the maximum or peak inJ. It is shown thatJ is related to the strain-rate sensitivity (m) of the material and reaches a maximum value(J max) whenm = 1. The efficiency of the power dissipation(J/J max) through metallurgical processes is shown to be an index of the dynamic behavior of the material and is useful in obtaining a unique combination of temperature and strain rate for processing and also in delineating the regions of internal fracture. In this method of modeling, noa priori knowledge or evaluation of the atomistic mechanisms is required, and the method is effective even when more than one dissipation process occurs, which is particularly advantageous in the hot processing of commercial alloys having complex microstructures. This method has been applied to modeling of the behavior of Ti-6242 during hot forging. The behavior of α+ β andβ preform microstructures has been exam-ined, and the results show that the optimum condition for hot forging of these preforms is obtained at 927 °C (1200 K) and a strain rate of 1CT•3 s•1. Variations in the efficiency of dissipation with temperature and strain rate are correlated with the dynamic microstructural changes occurring in the material.

Heparin versus 0.9% sodium chloride intermittent flushing for the prevention of occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children

Background Guidelines and clinical practice for the prevention of complications associated with central venous catheters (CVC) around the world vary greatly. Most institutions recommend the use of heparin to prevent occlusion, however there is debate regarding the need for heparin and evidence to suggest 0.9% sodium chloride (normal saline) may be as effective. The use of heparin is not without risk, may be unnecessary and is also associated with increased cost. Objectives To assess the clinical effects (benefits and harms) of intermittent flushing of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children. Search Methods The Cochrane Vascular Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the Specialised Register (last searched April 2015) and the Cochrane Register of Studies (Issue 3, 2015). We also searched the reference lists of retrieved trials. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials that compared the efficacy of normal saline with heparin to prevent occlusion of long term CVCs in infants and children aged up to 18 years of age were included. We excluded temporary CVCs and peripherally inserted central catheters (PICC). Data Collection and Analysis Two review authors independently assessed trial inclusion criteria, trial quality and extracted data. Rate ratios were calculated for two outcome measures - occlusion of the CVC and central line-associated blood stream infection. Other outcome measures included duration of catheter placement, inability to withdraw blood from the catheter, use of urokinase or recombinant tissue plasminogen, incidence of removal or re-insertion of the catheter, or both, and other CVC-related complications such as dislocation of CVCs, other CVC site infections and thrombosis. Main Results Three trials with a total of 245 participants were included in this review. The three trials directly compared the use of normal saline and heparin, however, between studies, all used different protocols for the standard and experimental arms with different concentrations of heparin and different frequency of flushes reported. In addition, not all studies reported on all outcomes. The quality of the evidence ranged from low to very low because there was no blinding, heterogeneity and inconsistency between studies was high and the confidence intervals were wide. CVC occlusion was assessed in all three trials (243 participants). We were able to pool the results of two trials for the outcomes of CVC occlusion and CVC-associated blood stream infection. The estimated rate ratio for CVC occlusion per 1000 catheter days between the normal saline and heparin group was 0.75 (95% CI 0.10 to 5.51, two studies, 229 participants, very low quality evidence). The estimated rate ratio for CVC-associated blood stream infection was 1.48 (95% CI 0.24 to 9.37, two studies, 231 participants; low quality evidence). The duration of catheter placement was reported to be similar between the two study arms, in one study (203 participants). Authors' Conclusions The review found that there was not enough evidence to determine the effects of intermittent flushing of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children. Ultimately, if this evidence were available, the development of evidenced-based clinical practice guidelines and consistency of practice would be facilitated.

Effective Use in Livestock Feeds of Mouldy and Weather-damaged Grain Containing Mycotoxins-Case Histories and Economic Assessments Pertaining to Pig and Poultry Industries of Queensland

Mould growth in field crops or stored grain reduces starch and lipid content, with consequent increases in fibre, and an overall reduction in digestible energy; palatability is often adversely affected. If these factors are allowed for, and mycotoxin concentrations are low, there are sound economic reasons for using this cheaper grain. Mycotoxins are common in stock feed but their effects on animal productivity are usually slight because either the concentration is too low or the animal is tolerant to the toxin. In Australia, aflatoxins occur in peanut by-products and in maize and sorghum if the grain is moist when stored. Zearalenone is found in maize and in sorghum and wheat in wetter regions. Nivalenol and deoxynivalenol are found in maize and wheat but at concentrations that rarely affect pigs, with chickens and cattle being even more tolerant. Other mycotoxins including cyclopiazonic acid, T-2 toxin, cytochalasins and tenuazonic acid are produced by Australian fungi in culture but are not found to be significant grain contaminants. Extremely mouldy sorghum containing Alternaria and Fusarium mycotoxins decreased feed conversion in pigs and chickens by up to 14%. However, E moniliforme- and Diplodia maydis-infected maize produced only slight reductions in feed intake by pigs and Ustilago- infected barley produced no ill effects. Use of these grains would substantially increase profits if the grain can be purchased cheaply.

A comparison of the excretion rate of endogenous purine derivatives in the urine of Bos indicus and Bos taurus steers

Estimates of microbial crude protein (MCP) production by ruminants, using a method based on the excretion of purine derivatives in urine, require an estimate of the excretion of endogenous purine derivatives (PD) by the animal. Current methods allocate a single value to all cattle. An experiment was carried out to compare the endogenous PD excretion in Bos taurus and high-content B. indicus (hereafter, B. indicus) cattle. Five Holstein–Friesian (B. taurus) and 5 Brahman (> 75% B. indicus) steers (mean liveweight 326 ± 3.0 kg) were used in a fasting study. Steers were fed a low-quality buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris; 59.4 g crude protein/kg dry matter) hay at estimated maintenance requirements for 19 days, after which hay intake was incrementally reduced for 2 days and the steers were fasted for 7 days. The excretion of PD in urine was measured daily for the last 6 days of the fasting period and the mean represented the daily endogenous PD excretion. Excretion of endogenous PD in the urine of B. indicus steers was less than half that of the B. taurus steers (190 µmol/kg W0.75.day v. 414 µmol/kg W0.75.day; combined s.e. 37.2 µmol/kg W0.75.day; P < 0.001). It was concluded that the use of a single value for endogenous PD excretion is inappropriate for use in MCP estimations and that subspecies-specific values would improve precision.

Spectral and thermal sensing for nitrogen and water status in rainfed and irrigated wheat environments

Variable-rate technologies and site-specific crop nutrient management require real-time spatial information about the potential for response to in-season crop management interventions. Thermal and spectral properties of canopies can provide relevant information for non-destructive measurement of crop water and nitrogen stresses. In previous studies, foliage temperature was successfully estimated from canopy-scale (mixed foliage and soil) temperatures and the multispectral Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) was effective in measuring canopy-scale N status in rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) systems in Horsham, Victoria, Australia. In the present study, results showed that under irrigated wheat systems in Maricopa, Arizona, USA, the theoretical derivation of foliage temperature unmixing produced relationships similar to those in Horsham. Derivation of the CCCI led to an r2 relationship with chlorophyll a of 0.53 after Zadoks stage 43. This was later than the relationship (r2 = 0.68) developed for Horsham after Zadoks stage 33 but early enough to be used for potential mid-season N fertilizer recommendations. Additionally, ground-based hyperspectral data estimated plant N (g kg)1) in Horsham with an r2 = 0.86 but was confounded by water supply and N interactions. By combining canopy thermal and spectral properties, varying water and N status can potentially be identified eventually permitting targeted N applications to those parts of a field where N can be used most efficiently by the crop.

Systematic Construction of Linear Transform Based Full-Diversity, Rate-One Space-Time Frequency Codes

In this paper, we generalize the existing rate-one space frequency (SF) and space-time frequency (STF) code constructions. The objective of this exercise is to provide a systematic design of full-diversity STF codes with high coding gain. Under this generalization, STF codes are formulated as linear transformations of data. Conditions on these linear transforms are then derived so that the resulting STF codes achieve full diversity and high coding gain with a moderate decoding complexity. Many of these conditions involve channel parameters like delay profile (DP) and temporal correlation. When these quantities are not available at the transmitter, design of codes that exploit full diversity on channels with arbitrary DIP and temporal correlation is considered. Complete characterization of a class of such robust codes is provided and their bit error rate (BER) performance is evaluated. On the other hand, when channel DIP and temporal correlation are available at the transmitter, linear transforms are optimized to maximize the coding gain of full-diversity STF codes. BER performance of such optimized codes is shown to be better than those of existing codes.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Association of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings with a rapid rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouse soils

A study was undertaken from 2004 to 2007 to investigate factors associated with decreased efficacy of metalaxyl to manage damping-off of cucumber in Oman. A survey over six growing seasons showed that growers lost up to 14.6% of seedlings following application of metalaxyl. No resistance to metalaxyl was found among Pythium isolates. Damping-off disease in the surveyed greenhouses followed two patterns. In most (69%) greenhouses, seedling mortality was found to occur shortly after transplanting and decrease thereafter (Phase-I). However, a second phase of seedling mortality (Phase-II) appeared 9-14 d after transplanting in about 31% of the surveyed greenhouses. Analysis of the rate of biodegradation of metalaxyl in six greenhouses indicated a significant increase in the rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouses, which encountered Phase-II damping-off. The half-life of metalaxyl dropped from 93 d in soil, which received no previous metalaxyl treatment to 14 d in soil, which received metalaxyl for eight consecutive seasons, indicating an enhanced rate of metalaxyl biodegradation after repeated use. Multiple applications of metalaxyl helped reduce the appearance of Phase-II damping-off. This appears to be the first report of rapid biodegradation of metalaxyl in greenhouse soils and the first report of its association with appearance of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings.

Host-delivered RNAi: An effective strategy to silence genes in plant parasitic nematodes

Root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.) are obligate, sedentary endoparasites that infect many plant species causing large economic losses worldwide. Available nematicides are being banned due to their toxicity or ozone-depleting properties and alternative control strategies are urgently required. We have produced transgenic tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) plants expressing different dsRNA hairpin structures targeting a root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne javanica) putative transcription factor, MjTis11. We provide evidence that MjTis11 was consistently silenced in nematodes feeding on the roots of transgenic plants. The observed silencing was specific for MjTis11, with other sequence-unrelated genes being unaffected in the nematodes. Those transgenic plants able to induce silencing of MjTis11, also showed the presence of small interfering RNAs. Even though down-regulation of MjTis11 did not result in a lethal phenotype, this study demonstrates the feasibility of silencing root-knot nematode genes by expressing dsRNA in the host plant. Host-delivered RNA interference-triggered (HD-RNAi) silencing of parasite genes provides a novel disease resistance strategy with wide biotechnological applications. The potential of HD-RNAi is not restricted to parasitic nematodes but could be adapted to control other plant-feeding pests.