A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Models of complexity in Robert Coover's John's wife and the adventures of Lucky Pierre

This doctoral dissertation analyzes two novels by the American novelist Robert Coover as examples of hypertextual writing on the book bound page, as tokens of hyperfiction. The complexity displayed in the novels, John's Wife and The Adventures of Lucky Pierre, integrates the cultural elements that characterize the contemporary condition of capitalism and technologized practices that have fostered a different subjectivity evidenced in hypertextual writing and reading, the posthuman subjectivity. The models that account for the complexity of each novel are drawn from the concept of strange attractors in Chaos Theory and from the concept of rhizome in Nomadology. The transformations the characters undergo in the degree of their corporeality sets the plane on which to discuss turbulence and posthumanity. The notions of dynamic patterns and strange attractors, along with the concept of the Body without Organs and Rhizome are interpreted, leading to the revision of narratology and to analytical categories appropriate to the study of the novels. The reading exercised throughout this dissertation enacts Daniel Punday's corporeal reading. The changes in the characters' degree of materiality are associated with the stages of order, turbulence and chaos in the story, bearing on the constitution of subjectivity within and along the reading process. Coover's inscription of planes of consistency to counter linearity and accommodate hypertextual features to the paper supported narratives describes the characters' trajectory as rhizomatic. The study led to the conclusion that narrative today stands more as a regime in a rhizomatic relation with other regimes in cultural practice than as an exclusively literary form and genre. Besides this, posthuman subjectivity emerges as class identity, holding hypertextual novels as their literary form of choice.

Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Caracterização ecológica dos peixes recifais do Atol das Rocas

The present work was carried out at the Atol das Rocas (3º 51 S; 33º 49 W), the only atoll of the South Atlantic and the first Brazilian marine protected area. It was guided by the following hypothesis: the composition of the fish communities varies in agreement with the position of the pools; in other words, with or without permanent ocean connection. To test the validity of this hypothesis, the fish abundance was estimated in the connected pools (Barretinha/Barreta Falsa) and unconnected ones (Cemiteriozinho/Âncoras), carrying an ecological characterization of the fishes that inhabit these pools. Additionally, the structural complexity of the sampled places was also evaluated intending to verify the variations of the abundance and diversity of fishes in function to this factor. By the fact of this research was being carried out through the limits of a conservation unit, the samples was realized using visual census techniques. The results generated through uni and multivariate analytic techniques allowed the evidence that decisive factor in the density, richness and diversity variations of fishes are linked to the substratum type (Hard / Soft bottom) and not by the fact that the pool are or are not connected permanently to the ocean. In relation to the structural complexity; 58% of the variations in the diversity of fishes were attributed to changes in the structural complexity, while 12% of the variations in the abundance were attributed to the structural complexity

Ecological distribution of the shrimp Nematopalaemon schmitti (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea) in three bays on the south-eastern coast of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Harmonised framework for ecological risk assessment of sediments from ports and estuarine zones of North and South Atlantic

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Uma ecologia de base complexa

This thesis objective systemize and discuss the ecological knowledge constructed by means of tradition knowledge with basis in a complex ecology (MORIN, 2002b). The conception of tradition knowledge (ALMEIDA, 2001c) corresponds to a diversity of knowledgement, of men and women, constructed from heteroclite elements of the geographic way, making use of analogies and homologies which serves as the base for this scientific inquiry. These knowledge are extremely related the context where these people are inserted. To construct an ecology of complex base is to understand that the reality is not given previously, and that its construction assumes indissociability among the elements that composes it, that is, between nature and society, material and immaterial elements. To incorporate the disorder, the uncertainty, the unpredictable and the auto-echo-organization as guide principles of a new ecology, constitutes in a new vision of the biological science and the scientific ecology in direction to a science of complexity. The work focuses the ecological knowledge of the Piató lagoon, municipality of Açu, in the State of Rio Grande do Norte, having as interlocutor of this boarding Mr. Francisco Lucas da Silva (known in the local as Chico Lucas), fisherman and agriculturist, who was born, and lives until today, in the community of Areia Branca, around the lagoon. Having for base the method as strategy (MORIN, 2001a), the research construction was performed through the realization of more than 10 trips carried out between the years of 2005 and 2007. In these trips the ecological aspects of the environments such as, the flora and the fauna, as well as the environmental impacts on the lagoon, were obtained in recorded dialogues and interviews with Chico Lucas, which were later transcripts. The information from there showed a natural and social complex reality, little known by Cartesian science, since it brings a wealth of details of daily life full, over all, for tradition knowing of the people that had lived there and the ones who remain living there. The thesis looks to understand the strategies of thought and the knowledge production referring to traditional knowing and its ability of interchange between different cognitive operators. The ecological knowledge that emerges of these knows reveals a systemic perception of the environment, presenting the beings and phenomena in its peculiarities and its degrees of complexity, but immutable in its indissociability

Ecological aspects of the free-living ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) on animal trails within Atlantic rainforest in south-eastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Non invasive methods for genetic analysis applied to ecological and behavioral studies in Latino-America

Documenting the presence and abundance of the neotropical mammals is the first step for understanding their population ecology, behavior and genetic dynamics in designing conservation plans. The combination of field research with molecular genetics techniques are new tools that provide valuable biological information avoiding the disturbance in the ecosystems, trying to minimize the human impact in the process to gather biological information. The objective of this paper is to review the available non invasive sampling techniques that have been used in Neotropical mammal studies to apply to determine the presence and abundance, population structure, sex ratio, taxonomic diagnostic using mitochondrial markers, and assessing genetic variability using nuclear markers. There are a wide range of non invasive sampling techniques used to determine the species identification that inhabit an area such as searching for tracks, feces, and carcasses. Other useful equipment is the camera traps that can generate an image bank that can be valuable to assess species presence and abundance by morphology. With recent advances in molecular biology, it is now possible to use the trace amounts of DNA in feces and amplify it to analyze the species diversity in an area, and the genetic variability at intraspecific level. This is particularly helpful in cases of sympatric and cryptic species in which morphology failed to diagnose the taxonomic status of several species of brocket deer of the genus Mazama.