Loan loss provisions, bank valuations and discretion : a comparative study between conventional and Islamic banks

This study investigates the use of reported loan loss provisions (LLP) by investors in their valuations of banks within the Middle East and North Africa region between the years 2006 and 2011. We decompose LLP into discretionary and non-discretionary components to test for differential valuations in the two banking sectors. We use alternative criteria to define the components of LLP in banks: loan quality/size and earnings management/ manipulation incentives. We employ a price-level valuation model estimated using two-stage analyses. We find that LLP has positive value relevance to investors in both banking sectors. Investors in Islamic banks price the discretionary component relatively lower than their conventional counterparts. We attribute this result to differences in product and governance structures as well as to the religious perception of Islamic banking. In both banking sectors, investors construe an increase in the non-discretionary component as irrelevant valuation information. Our results are relevant to bank regulators in showing the signalling effect of LLP to bank value and stability.

Loan loss provisions, bank valuations and discretion:a comparative study between conventional and Islamic banks

This study investigates the use of reported loan loss provisions (LLP) by investors in their valuations of banks within the Middle East and North Africa region between the years 2006 and 2011. We decompose LLP into discretionary and non-discretionary components to test for differential valuations in the two banking sectors. We use alternative criteria to define the components of LLP in banks: loan quality/size and earnings management/manipulation incentives. We employ a price-level valuation model estimated using two-stage analyses. We find that LLP has positive value relevance to investors in both banking sectors. Investors in Islamic banks price the discretionary component relatively lower than their conventional counterparts. We attribute this result to differences in product and governance structures as well as to the religious perception of Islamic banking. In both banking sectors, investors construe an increase in the non-discretionary component as irrelevant valuation information. Our results are relevant to bank regulators in showing the signalling effect of LLP to bank value and stability. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Related party transactions, corporate governance and accounting quality in Greece

Related Party Transactions (RPTs) have been considered recently in research as a phenomenon which is associated with several financial scandals, shareholder’s wealth expropriation and is used for earnings management (EM) purposes by the reporting entity. This study aimed to: (i) assess the extent of EM and RPTs i Greece; (ii) investigate the association between RPTs and EM; (iii) investigate the association between corporate governance and EM; (iv) investigate the association between corporate governance and RPTs; and (v) investigate the impact of RPTs on Accounting Quality. Greece was selected for this study as it provides a special context due to poor investor protection, high levels of EM and unhealthy financial reporting environment where wealth extraction and EM are more likely. This study examines the relationship between earnings management and RPTs for the firms listed on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Moreover, it examines the association between earnings management and corporate governance activities. The results show a negative and significant relationship between EM and RPTs. This finding does not support the conclusion that RPTs are necessarily conducted to mask fraud or the extraction of firm resources. The results show that firms audited by one of the Big 4 audit firms are associated with less EM. Additionally, the study investigates the relationship between RPTs and accounting quality. The findings show that that there is no significant difference in accounting quality between RPTs firms and non-RPTs firms. This study contributes to the EM, accounting quality and corporate governance literatures. This research suggests recommendations for researchers, data providers and policy makers on ways to reduce the problems associated with RPTs.

Assessing the value relevance of accounting data after the introduction of IFRS in Europe

Since 2005, European-listed companies have been required to prepare their consolidated financial statements in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). We examine whether value relevance increased following the introduction of IFRS, using a sample of 3,721 companies listed on five European stock exchanges: Frankfurt, Madrid, Paris, London, and Milan. We find mixed evidence of an increase in value relevance. However, the influence of earnings on share price increased following the introduction of IFRS in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, while the influence of book value of equity decreased (except for the United Kingdom). © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

On the peculiar relevance of a fundamental dilemma of minimum-wage regulation in post-socialism – apropos of an international investigation

To the extent minimum-wage regulation is effective in fighting against excessive earnings handicaps of those at the lower end-tail of earnings distribution, it may have the side-effect of worsening their employment prospects. A demand-and-supply interpretation of data on the relative employment rate and earnings position of the least educated in the EU27 suggests that the resulting dilemma might be particularly relevant for minimum-wage policies in post-socialist countries.

A magyar minimálbér-szabályozás és hatása a foglalkoztatásra, különösen 2000-től napjainkig (Minimum-wage regulation in Hungary and its impact on employment, with particular respect to the 2000’s)

Noha az 1990-es évek első felében felbomlott az akadémiai közgazdászok sok évtizeden át örök érvényűnek hitt közmegegyezése a minimálbér szükségképpen negatív foglalkoztatási hatásáról, a túlságosan magas minimálbért minden közgazdász foglalkoztatáscsökkentő hatásúnak jósolja. Tanulmányunkban a magyar minimálbér-szabályozást e hatás szempontjából vizsgáljuk és értékeljük. / === / Although the long-held view of an unambiguously negative employment effect of a binding minimum wage was challenged by empirical findings in the early 1990’s, it is unanimously predicted that if the minimum wage is set too high it will bring about adverse employment effects. Accordingly, our study starts from an evaluation of the magnitude of the Hungarian minimum wage, i.e., of how it relates to minimum wage rates elsewhere, and of how it has developed through time. Next we inspect the main features that characterize the Hungarian system of minimum wage regulation. Theoretical views on the potential employment effect of minimum wage regulation are then surveyed and contrasted to empirical findings. The study concludes by policy recommendations. To sum up the main strand of arguments, we try to demonstrate that even though Hungary’s minimum wage, if assessed by its ratio to average and/or median full-time earnings, does not appear particularly high by international standards, it might rightly be regarded as unreasonably high in light of Hungary’s excessively low relative rate of employment among the least schooled. This diagnose should become particularly evident once one takes into account that, in sharp contrast to established rules elsewhere, a significantly higher wage floor is in effect for those with lower secondary schooling. Abolition of this legally guaranteed premium over the minimum wage as well as more moderation in minimum wage adjustments are thus highly recommended.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

A közalkalmazotti béremelés hatása a tanárok pályaelhagyási döntéseire (The effect of a public-sector pay increase on teachers attrition)

A tanárok pályaelhagyási döntését vizsgálva, a tanulmány a következő két kérdésre keresi a választ. Milyen szerepet játszanak e döntésekben a keresetek, alternatív kereseti lehetőségek? Hogyan hatott a tanárok pályaelhagyására a 2002. évi közalkalmazotti béremelés? Az elemzéshez az OEP-ONYF-FH összekapcsolt nagymintás adatbázis felhasználásával kétféle modellt becsült a szerző: 1. két lehetőséget megkülönböztetve (elhagyja a tanári pályát/nem hagyja el) Cox-féle arányos hazárdfüggvényeket, 2. a pályaelhagyás okai között a más állásba kerülést és az egyéb pályaelhagyási okokat megkülönböztetve versengő kockázati modelleket. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy a kereseti lehetőségek hatnak a pályaelhagyási döntésekre. A magasabb jövedelem és magasabb relatív kereset csökkenti annak valószínűségét, hogy egy tanár elhagyja a pályát, és más pályán helyezkedjen el, vagy nem foglalkoztatotti státusba kerüljön. A közalkalmazotti béremelés átmenetileg csökkentette a pályaelhagyás valószínűségét a fiatal tanárok körében, de a hatás egy-két év alatt eltűnt. Az 51 évesnél idősebb tanárokat pedig inkább a pályán tartotta a béremelés, csökkentette annak valószínűségét is, hogy más pályán helyezkedjenek el, vagy hogy nem foglalkoztatotti státusba kerüljenek. ______ The paper investigates teachers decisions to leave the profession. It first examines the role in such decisions of pay compared with earnings in alternative occupations, and then discusses how the public-sector pay increase of 2002 af-fected exit decisions by teachers. Duration models were estimated using large merged administrative data sets. First binary-choice Cox proportional hazard models (leaving teaching profession or not), then competing risk models that distinguish exits to another occupation and exits to a non-working state. Results show that earnings matter. Higher wages reduce the probability of exiting teacher profession to go to another occupation or to non-employment. The public-sector pay increase decreased the probability of inexperienced teachers leaving the teacher profession temporarily, but the effect disappeared after one or two years. For experienced teachers over 51 years old, the wage increase was found to reduce attrition.

Szisztematikus optimizmus a válság idején = Overoptimism during the financial crises

Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tőzsdei vállalatokra készült egy részvényre jutó nyereség- (EPS-earnings per share) előrejelzéseikben szisztematikusabban kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg, mint a tényérték. A cikkben az EPS-előrejelzéseket vizsgálta meg a szerző a válság első másfél évében, melyek ezen időszakban is optimistának bizonyultak a vizsgált adatbázison. Az elmúlt húsz évben számos magyarázat látott napvilágot a pénzügyi előrejelzésekben tapasztalható „túltervezésre”. A viselkedéstani magyarázatok jelentős része az elemzők túlzott önbizalmát, jövőbe vetett túlzott optimizmusát jelölték meg okként. Jelen cikk – az empirikus kutatáson túl – nagy hangsúlyt fektet a két fogalom részletes bemutatására, mivel a válság éveit is optimista EPS-előrejelzések jellemezték. _____ There are numerous evidences from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favorable forecasts for the earnings per share of listed companies than the fact, i.e. they are generally optimistic. In the current article the author investigated the EPS forecasting error in the first two and a half years of the crisis (2008-2010), which was also proved to be an era of the optimistic forecasting error. During the last 20 years reasons of so called “overplanning” have been explained in several ways. Many of these cognitive thinking patterns explanations relied on the phenomenon of overconfidence, and overoptimism without giving detailed description of these concepts. Beside the empirical part of the research current article puts more emphasis on the analysis of these theoretical concepts.

A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre (The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria)

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. _____ The author investigated the impact of the financial crisis that started in 2008 on the forecasting error for earnings per share. There is plentiful evidence from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favourable values in their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts than reality, i.e. they are generally optimistic. Other investigations have supported the idea that the EPS forecasting error is greater under uncertain environmental circumstances, while other researchers prove that the analysts under-react to the negative information in their forecasts. The financial crisis brought a myriad of negative information for analysts to consider in such forecasts, while also increasing the level of uncertainty for the entire economy. The article investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the EPS forecasting error, distinguishing the period when the crisis gave merely negative information, from the one when its effect of uncertainty was significantly increased over the entire economy.

The impact of CEO compensation and CEO horizon on a firm's discretionary research and development expenditures

Agency costs are said to arise as a result of the separation of ownership from control inherent in the corporate form of ownership. One such agency problem concerns the potential variance between the time horizons of principal shareholders and agent managers. Agency theory suggests that these costs can be alleviated or controlled through performance-based Chief Executive Officer (CEO) contracting. However, components of a CEO's compensation contract can exacerbate or mitigate agency-related problems (Antle and Smith, 1985). According to the horizon hypothesis, a self-serving CEO reduces discretionary research and development (R&D) expenditures to increase earnings and earnings-based bonus compensation. Agency theorists contend that a CEO's market-based compensation component can mitigate horizon problems. This study seeks to determine whether there is a relationship between CEO earnings- and market-based compensation components and R&D expenditures in the largest United States industrial firms from 1987 to 1993.^ Consistent with the horizon hypothesis, results provide evidence of a negative and statistically significant relationship between CEO cash compensation (i.e., salary and bonus) and the firm's R&D expenditures. Consistent with the expectations of agency theory, results provide evidence of a positive and statistically significant relationship between market-based CEO compensation and R&D.^ Further results of this study provide evidence of a positive and statistically significant relationship between CEO tenure and the firm's R&D expenditures. Although there is a negative relationship between CEO age and the firm's R&D, it was not statistically significant at the 0.5 level. ^

On the accuracy of nonsurvey regional input-output multipliers: An empirical study

Correct specification of the simple location quotients in regionalizing the national direct requirements table is essential to the accuracy of regional input-output multipliers. The purpose of this research is to examine the relative accuracy of these multipliers when earnings, employment, number of establishments, and payroll data specify the simple location quotients.^ For each specification type, I derive a column of total output multipliers and a column of total income multipliers. These multipliers are based on the 1987 benchmark input-output accounts of the U.S. economy and 1988-1992 state of Florida data.^ Error sign tests, and Standardized Mean Absolute Deviation (SMAD) statistics indicate that the output multiplier estimates overestimate the output multipliers published by the Department of Commerce-Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the state of Florida. In contrast, the income multiplier estimates underestimate the BEA's income multipliers. For a given multiplier type, the Spearman-rank correlation analysis shows that the multiplier estimates and the BEA multipliers have statistically different rank ordering of row elements. The above tests also find no significant different differences, both in size and ranking distributions, among the vectors of multiplier estimates. ^

Genetic algorithms and investment strategies: A global perspective

The profitability of momentum portfolios in the equity markets is derived from the continuation of stock returns over medium time horizons. The empirical evidence of momentum, however, is significantly different across markets around the world. The purpose of this dissertation is to: (1) help global investors determine the optimal selection and holding periods for momentum portfolios, (2) evaluate the profitability of the optimized momentum portfolios in different time periods and market states, (3) assess the investment strategy profits after considering transaction costs, and (4) interpret momentum returns within the framework of prior studies on investors’ behavior. Improving on the traditional practice of selecting arbitrary selection and holding periods, a genetic algorithm (GA) is employed. The GA performs a thorough and structured search to capture the return continuations and reversals patterns of momentum portfolios. Three portfolio formation methods are used: price momentum, earnings momentum, and earnings and price momentum and a non-linear optimization procedure (GA). The focus is on common equity of the U.S. and a select number of countries, including Australia, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The findings suggest that the evolutionary algorithm increases the annualized profits of the U.S. momentum portfolios. However, the difference in mean returns is statistically significant only in certain cases. In addition, after considering transaction costs, both price and earnings and price momentum portfolios do not appear to generate abnormal returns. Positive risk-adjusted returns net of trading costs are documented solely during “up” markets for a portfolio long in prior winners only. The results on the international momentum effects indicate that the GA improves the momentum returns by 2 to 5% on an annual basis. In addition, the relation between momentum returns and exchange rate appreciation/depreciation is examined. The currency appreciation does not appear to influence significantly momentum profits. Further, the influence of the market state on momentum returns is not uniform across the countries considered. The implications of the above findings are discussed with a focus on the practical aspects of momentum investing, both in the U.S. and globally.

Gender differences in audit committees

Issues related to the composition of audit committees have attracted significant interest from legislators and regulators in recent years. In my dissertation, I examine one overlooked component of audit committee composition – namely, the presence of female directors on the audit committee. I empirically test to see if there are any differences in the functioning of audit committee when there is at least one female director on the audit committee. My dissertation examines three issues: audit committee diligence, audit pricing and earnings management. ^ The absence of females on corporate boards has become the focus of legislators in some countries. Prior research, in a variety of contexts, suggests that women are in general more conservative in their judgments and decisions. The first part of my dissertation empirically shows that the presence of at least one female director on the audit committee makes the audit committee have more meetings. The second essay empirically examines if there is a positive association between audit fees and the presence of female directors in the audit committee. I posit that having a female director on the audit committee will result in higher audit fees. I find no significant evidence to show that audit fees are higher when there is a female director on the audit committee. The third part of my dissertation empirically examines if there an association between the presence of a female director on the audit committee and earnings management. I find no significant evidence to show that the presence of female directors on the audit committee constrains earnings management. Overall, the results suggest that having a female on the audit committee changes the form – if not the substance – of audit committee functioning. ^

Shareholder ratification of the auditor and audit market competition

In my dissertation, I examine factors associated with firms’ submission of auditor selection for shareholder ratification and test if shareholder ratification of auditor selection is associated with the extent of price competition in the audit market (as measured by audit fees) and audit quality (as measured by clients’ earnings management). The dissertation is motivated from the recent recommendation of the U.S. Treasury’s Advisory Committee on Auditing Profession (ACAP) regarding the submission of auditor selection for shareholder ratification votes. The ACAP suggests that this practice may improve the competition in the audit market; yet, there is no empirical evidence supporting the ACAP’s recommendation. My dissertation attempts to fill the gap in the literature on an issue of current interest to the auditing profession. I find that firm size, CEO-Chair duality, insider ownership and institutional ownership are associated with the submission of auditor selection for shareholder ratification vote. However, I do not find an association between audit committee variables and the submission of auditor selection for shareholder ratification vote. The second essay investigates the association between auditor ratification and audit fees. Audit fees are higher in firms that submit auditor selection for shareholder ratification. The finding is not consistent with the increased price competition predicted by the ACAP. The third essay of my dissertation examine whether the submission of auditor selection for shareholder ratification is associated with earnings management. I find that firms that submit auditor selection for shareholder ratification are more likely to have lower level of earnings management. Overall, the results suggest that the same factors that are associated with higher quality monitoring also may be associated with the submission of auditor selection for shareholder ratification vote. The results call into question the one-size-fits-all approach recommended by the ACAP.