Queues with retrial/self-generation of priorities /postponement of work and some related reliability problems

Application of Queueing theory in areas like Computer networking, ATM facilities, Telecommunications and to many other numerous situation made people study Queueing models extensively and it has become an ever expanding branch of applied probability. The thesis discusses Reliability of a ‘k-out-of-n system’ where the server also attends external customers when there are no failed components (main customers), under a retrial policy, which can be explained in detail. It explains the reliability of a ‘K-out-of-n-system’ where the server also attends external customers and studies a multi-server infinite capacity Queueing system where each customer arrives as ordinary but can generate into priority customer which waiting in the queue. The study gives details on a finite capacity multi-server queueing system with self-generation of priority customers and also on a single server infinite capacity retrial Queue where the customer in the orbit can generate into a priority customer and leaves the system if the server is already busy with a priority generated customer; else he is taken for service immediately. Arrival process is according to a MAP and service times follow MSP.

Economics of Human Resource Planning With Special Reference to Higher Education in Kerala

Ongoing changes in global economic structure along information revolution have produced an environment where knowledge and skills or education and training are considered increasingly valued commodities. This is based on the simple notion that nation’s economic progress is linked to education and training. This idea is embodied in the theory of human capital, according to which the knowledge and skill found in labour represents valuable resources for the market. Thus the important assumptions of the Human capital theory are 910 Human capital is an investment for future (2) More training and education leads to better work skills (3) Educational institutions play a central role in the development of human capital(4) the technological revolution is often cited as the most pressing reason why education and knowledge are becoming valuable economic commodities . The objectives of the present study are, the investment and institutional or structural framework of higher education in Kerala, the higher education market and the strengths and weakness of supply demand conditions , cost and the benefits of higher education in Kerala , impact of recent policy changes in higher education,need for expanding higher education market to solve the grave problem of Un employment on the basis of as systematic manpower planning and the higher education and its association with income and employment.

Some Studies and New Results on Multi Microprocessor Applications

One of the fastest expanding areas of computer exploitation is in embedded systems, whose prime function is not that of computing, but which nevertheless require information processing in order to carry out their prime function. Advances in hardware technology have made multi microprocessor systems a viable alternative to uniprocessor systems in many embedded application areas. This thesis reports the results of investigations carried out on multi microprocessors oriented towards embedded applications, with a view to enhancing throughput and reliability. An ideal controller for multiprocessor operation is developed which would smoothen sharing of routines and enable more powerful and efficient code I data interchange. Results of performance evaluation are appended.A typical application scenario is presented, which calls for classifying tasks based on characteristic features that were identified. The different classes are introduced along with a partitioned storage scheme. Theoretical analysis is also given. A review of schemes available for reducing disc access time is carried out and a new scheme presented. This is found to speed up data base transactions in embedded systems. The significance of software maintenance and adaptation in such applications is highlighted. A novel scheme of prov1d1ng a maintenance folio to system firmware is presented, alongwith experimental results. Processing reliability can be enhanced if facility exists to check if a particular instruction in a stream is appropriate. Likelihood of occurrence of a particular instruction would be more prudent if number of instructions in the set is less. A new organisation is derived to form the basement for further work. Some early results that would help steer the course of the work are presented.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Realization of a Scanning Photoacoustic Technique: Thermal properties of Bulk and Film Samples

Among the large number of photothcrmal techniques available, photoacoustics assumes a very significant place because of its essential simplicity and the variety of applications it finds in science and technology. The photoacoustic (PA) effect is the generation of an acoustic signal when a sample, kept inside an enclosed volume, is irradiated by an intensity modulated beam of radiation. The radiation absorbed by the sample is converted into thermal waves by nonradiative de-excitation processes. The propagating thermal waves cause a corresponding expansion and contraction of the gas medium surrounding the sample, which in tum can be detected as sound waves by a sensitive microphone. These sound waves have the same frequency as the initial modulation frequency of light. Lock-in detection method enables one to have a sufficiently high signal to noise ratio for the detected signal. The PA signal amplitude depends on the optical absorption coefficient of the sample and its thermal properties. The PA signal phase is a function of the thermal diffusivity of the sample.Measurement of the PA amplitude and phase enables one to get valuable information about the thermal and optical properties of the sample. Since the PA signal depends on the optical and thennal properties of the sample, their variation will get reflected in the PA signal. Therefore, if the PA signal is collected from various points on a sample surface it will give a profile of the variations in the optical/thennal properties across the sample surface. Since the optical and thermal properties are affected by the presence of defects, interfaces, change of material etc. these will get reflected in the PA signal. By varying the modulation frequency, we can get information about the subsurface features also. This is the basic principle of PA imaging or PA depth profiling. It is a quickly expanding field with potential applications in thin film technology, chemical engineering, biology, medical diagnosis etc. Since it is a non-destructive method, PA imaging has added advantages over some of the other imaging techniques. A major part of the work presented in this thesis is concemed with the development of a PA imaging setup that can be used to detect the presence of surface and subsmface defects in solid samples.Determination of thermal transport properties such as thermal diffusivity, effusivity, conductivity and heat capacity of materials is another application of photothennal effect. There are various methods, depending on the nature of the sample, to determine these properties. However, there are only a few methods developed to determine all these properties simultaneously. Even though a few techniques to determine the above thermal properties individually for a coating can be found in literature, no technique is available for the simultaneous measurement of these parameters for a coating. We have developed a scanning photoacoustic technique that can be used to determine all the above thermal transport properties simultaneously in the case of opaque coatings such as paints. Another work that we have presented in this thesis is the determination of thermal effusivity of many bulk solids by a scanning photoacoustic technique. This is one of the very few methods developed to determine thermal effiisivity directly.

Investigations on some technologically important polymer nanocomposite films and semi crystalline Polypyrrole films

The present work deals with investigations on some technologically important polymer nanocomposite films and semi crystalline polypyrrole films.The work presented in the thesis deals with the realization of novel polymer nanocomposites with enhanced functionalities and prospects of applications in the fields related to nanophotonics. The development of inorganic/polymer nanocomposites is a rapidly expanding multidisciplinary research area with profound industrial applications. The incorporation of suitable inorganic nanoparticles can endow the resulting nanocomposites with excellent electrical, optical and mechanical properties. The first chapter gives a general introduction to nanotechnology, nanocomposites and conducting polymers. It also emphasizes the significance of ZnO among other semiconductor materials, which forms the inorganic filler in the polymer nanocomposites of the present study. This chapter also gives general ideas on the properties and applications of conducting polymers with special reference to polypyrrole. The objectives of the present investigations are also clearly addressed in this chapter. The second chapter deals with the theoretical aspects and details of all the experimental techniques used in the present work for the synthesis of polymer nanocomposites and polypyrrole samples and their various characterizations. Chapter 3 is based on the preparation and properties of ZnO/Polystyrene nanocomposite film samples. The optical properties of these nanocomoposite films are discussed in detail.Chapter 4 deals with the detailed investigations on the dependence of the optical properties of ZnO/PS nanocomposite films on the size of the nanostructured ZnO filler material. The excellent UV shielding properties of these nanocomposite films form the highlight of this chapter. Chapter 5 gives a detailed analysis of the nonlinear optical properties of ZnO/PS nanocomposite films using Z scan technique. The effect of ZnO particle size in the composite films on the nonlinear properties is discussed. The present study involves two phases of research activities. In the first phase, the linear and nonlinear optical properties of ZnO/polymer nanocomposites are investigated in detail. The second phase of work is centered on the synthesis and related studies on highly crystalline polypyrrole films. In the present study, nanosized ZnO is synthesized using wet chemical method at two different temperatures

Studies on immobilization of Bacteria

Cell immnhilizatinn technology in a rapidly expanding arna in the endeavour of microbial fnrmentatiwn.During the lnmt 15 years anveral prnceafinn have been developed and more are in developmental atage of approaching commercial utilizatinn.In the present programme it was planned to develop an optimized process for the innobilization of alpha amylase producing Bacillus polymyxa (CBTB 25) an isolate obtained from Cochin University campus primarily for the production of alpha-amylase.Optimal concentration of support material that attributaa stability and maximal activity to the immobilized cell beads was determined using different concentrations of sodium aliginate as support and estimation of amylase production.An overeall assessment of the data obtained for the various studies conducted denotes that immobilized cells synthesize alpha-amylase at comparable rates with free cells and produce reducing sugara at a higher level than free cells.Results indicated that both phosphate and citrate buffers could be used for disrupting the immobilized beads since they enforced maximal release of cells through leaching from the beads within one hour.On comparative analysis it was observed that immobilized cells could synthesize alpha amylase at similar levels with free cells of B.polymyxa.On Co-immobilization of B.Polymyxa with S.cerevisiae,the co-immobilizate beads could effeciently convert starch directly to ethanol with a yield of 14.8% at 1 : 2 ratio.

Fabrication And Parametric Measurements Of N2 Laser Pumped Dye Laser And Its Application To Energy Transfer Studies In Mixed Dyes

Eventhough a large number of schemes have been proposed and develoned for N9 laser ouined dye lasers the relatively low efficiency compelled the scientists to device new methods to improve the system efficiencs. Energy transfer mechanism has been shown to he a convenien tool for the enhancement of efficiency of dye lasers. Th p resent work covers a detailed study of the performance characteristics of a N2 laser pumped dye laser in the con— ventional mode and also, when pumped by the energy transfer mechanism. For .th.e present investigations a dye laser pumped by a'N2 laser (A4200 kw peak power) was fabricated. The grating at grazing incidence was used as the beam expanding device; A t its best performance the system was giving an output peak power of l5 kW for a 5 X lC"3H/l Rh—€ solution in methanol. T he conversion efficiency was 7.5; The output beam was having 3 divergence of 2 mrad and bandwidth o.9 A. Suitable modifications were suggested for obtaining better conversion efficiency and bandwidth.

India's Engineering Exports: Growth, Concentration and Diversification

The unprecedented increase in competition as well as protectionism in world markets makes it imperative for a country like India to get much more energetically involved in the export business and make the dictum "export and flourish" a really true proposition, as against a somewhat passive "export and perish" approach followed during the last three and a half decades. At present, India needs to evolve new export strategies to cope with the changing international scenario and to ensure a steady improvement in the otherwise sagging export performance. A search for such strategic measures becomes all the more important in view of the all-out efforts of the government for expanding the country's exports to tide over the crippling balance of payment deficits and to generate necessary foreign exchange to meet the import requirements for accelerating the tempo of economic development. The present study is an endeavour in this direction. Taking engineering exports as an example, the study demonstrates alternative ways of understanding indepth export performance analysis and learning lessons for better performance in future

Investigation of structural, optical and electrical properties and valence band splitting in cu-ln-se compounds

Investigations on thin films that started decades back due to scientific curiosity in the properties of a two-dimensional solid, has developed into a leading research field in recent years due to the ever expanding applications of the thin films in the fann of a variety of active and passive microminiaturized components and devices, solar cells, radiation sowces and detectors, magnetic memory devices, interference filters, refection and antireflection coatings etc. [1]. The recent environment and energy resource concerns have aroused an enonnous interest in the study of materials in thin film form suitable for renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic devices. Recognition of the immense potential applications of the chalcopyrites that can fonn homojunctions or heterojunctions for solar cell fabrication has attracted many researchers to extensive and intense research on them. In this thesis, we have started with studies performed on CuInSe, thin films, a technologically well recognized compound belonging to the l•ill-VI family of semiconductors and have riveted on investigations on the preparation and characterization of compoWlds Culn3Se5. Culn5Seg and CuIn7Se12, an interesting group of compounds related to CuInSe2 called Ordered Vacancy Compounds, having promising applications in photovoltaic devices. A pioneering work attempted on preparing and characterizing the compound Culn7Sel2 is detailed in the chapters on OVC's. Investigation on valence band splitting in avc's have also been attempted for the first time and included as the last chapter in the thesis. Some of the salient features of the chalcopyrite c.ompounds are given in the next section .of this introductory chapter.

Structure of marketing channels of selected manufacturing industries in Kerala

The study evolved from the basic premise that the existing distribution structure is not adequate or adaptive to meet the needs of the expanding manufacturing sector and the emerging mass market. The hypothised causes of the problem are the following: marketing channels are not used for strategy differentiation by manufacturers: there are too many intermediaries in the channels; the distributive institutions are not adaptive; and there is very little control over the flow of products through the channels. These assumptions about the causes of the problem have been translated into specific hypotheses and tested with data. Empirical analysis, while supporting some of these hypotheses, challenges certain widely held notions. The ensuing summary presents the important findings, in the sequence in which they are discussed in the study.

Modelling of Ultraviolet and Vissible Emissions in Comets

Comets are the spectacular objects in the night sky since the dawn of mankind. Due to their giant apparitions and enigmatic behavior, followed by coincidental calamities, they were termed as notorious and called as `bad omens'. With a systematic study of these objects modern scienti c community understood that these objects are part of our solar system. Comets are believed to be remnant bodies of at the end of evolution of solar system and possess the material of solar nebula. Hence, these are considered as most pristine objects which can provide the information about the conditions of solar nebula. These are small bodies of our solar system, with a typical size of about a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers orbiting the Sun in highly elliptical orbits. The solid body of a comet is nucleus which is a conglomerated mixture of water ice, dust and some other gases. When the cometary nucleus advances towards the Sun in its orbit the ices sublimates and produces the gaseous envelope around the nucleus which is called coma. The gravity of cometary nucleus is very small and hence can not in uence the motion of gases in the cometary coma. Though the cometary nucleus is a few kilometers in size they can produce a transient, extensive, and expanding atmosphere with size several orders of magnitude larger in space. By ejecting gas and dust into space comets became the most active members of the solar system. The solar radiation and the solar wind in uences the motion of dust and ions and produces dust and ion tails, respectively. Comets have been observed in di erent spectral regions from rocket, ground and space borne optical instruments. The observed emission intensities are used to quantify the chemical abundances of di erent species in the comets. The study of various physical and chemical processes that govern these emissions is essential before estimating chemical abundances in the coma. Cameron band emission of CO molecule has been used to derive CO2 abundance in the comets based on the assumption that photodissociation of CO2 mainly produces these emissions. Similarly, the atomic oxygen visible emissions have been used to probe H2O in the cometary coma. The observed green ([OI] 5577 A) to red-doublet emission ([OI] 6300 and 6364 A) ratio has been used to con rm H2O as the parent species of these emissions. In this thesis a model is developed to understand the photochemistry of these emissions and applied to several comets. The model calculated emission intensities are compared with the observations done by space borne instruments like International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and also by various ground based telescopes.

Spatio-Temporal Changes in the Wetland Ecosystem of Cochin City using Remote Sensing and GIS

Urban developments have exerted immense pressure on wetlands. Urban areas are normally centers of commercial activity and continue to attract migrants in large numbers in search of employment from different areas. As a result, habitations keep coming up in the natural areas / flood plains. This is happening in various Indian cities and towns and large habitations are coming up in low-lying areas, often encroaching even over drainage channels. In some cases, houses are constructed even on top of nallahs and drains. In the case of Kochi the situation is even worse as the base of the urban development itself stands on a completely reclaimed island. Also the topography and geology demanded more reclamation of land when the city developed as an agglomerative cluster. Cochin is a coastal settlement interspersed with a large backwater system and fringed on the eastern side by laterite-capped low hills from which a number of streams drain into the backwater system. The ridge line of the eastern low hills provides a welldefined watershed delimiting Cochin basin which help to confine the environmental parameters within a physical limit. This leads to an obvious conclusion that if physiography alone is considered, the western flatland is ideal for urban development. However it will result in serious environmental deterioration, as it comprises mainly of wetland and for availability of land there has to be large scale filling up of these wetlands which includes shallow mangrove-fringed water sheets, paddy fields, Pokkali fields, estuary etc.Chapter 1 School 4 of Environmental Studies The urban boundaries of Cochin are expanding fast with a consequent over-stretching of the existing fabric of basic amenities and services. Urbanisation leads to the transformation of agricultural land into built-up areas with the concomitant problems regarding water supply, drainage, garbage and sewage disposal etc. Many of the environmental problems of Cochin are hydrologic in origin; like water-logging / floods, sedimentation and pollution in the water bodies as well as shoreline erosion

Development of Electrochemical and Fluorescent Sensors

Chemical sensors have growing interest in the determination of food additives, which are creating toxicity and may cause serious health concern, drugs and metal ions. A chemical sensor can be defined as a device that transforms chemical information, ranging from the concentration of a specific sample component to total composition analysis, into an analytically useful signal. The chemical information may be generated from a chemical reaction of the analyte or from a physical property of the system investigated. Two main steps involved in the functioning of a chemical sensor are recognition and transduction. Chemical sensors employ specific transduction techniques to yield analyte information. The most widely used techniques employed in chemical sensors are optical absorption, luminescence, redox potential etc. According to the operating principle of the transducer, chemical sensors may be classified as electrochemical sensors, optical sensors, mass sensitive sensors, heat sensitive sensors etc. Electrochemical sensors are devices that transform the effect of the electrochemical interaction between analyte and electrode into a useful signal. They are very widespread as they use simple instrumentation, very good sensitivity with wide linear concentration ranges, rapid analysis time and simultaneous determination of several analytes. These include voltammetric, potentiometric and amperometric sensors. Fluorescence sensing of chemical and biochemical analytes is an active area of research. Any phenomenon that results in a change of fluorescence intensity, anisotropy or lifetime can be used for sensing. The fluorophores are mixed with the analyte solution and excited at its corresponding wavelength. The change in fluorescence intensity (enhancement or quenching) is directly related to the concentration of the analyte. Fluorescence quenching refers to any process that decreases the fluorescence intensity of a sample. A variety of molecular rearrangements, energy transfer, ground-state complex formation and collisional quenching. Generally, fluorescence quenching can occur by two different mechanisms, dynamic quenching and static quenching. The thesis presents the development of voltammetric and fluorescent sensors for the analysis of pharmaceuticals, food additives metal ions. The developed sensors were successfully applied for the determination of analytes in real samples. Chemical sensors have multidisciplinary applications. The development and application of voltammetric and optical sensors continue to be an exciting and expanding area of research in analytical chemistry. The synthesis of biocompatible fluorophores and their use in clinical analysis, and the development of disposable sensors for clinical analysis is still a challenging task. The ability to make sensitive and selective measurements and the requirement of less expensive equipment make electrochemical and fluorescence based sensors attractive.

Räumliche Modellierung der Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen und ihrer Wirkung auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung - Entwicklung eines GIS-basierten Modellsystems

Die gegenwärtige Entwicklung der internationalen Klimapolitik verlangt von Deutschland eine Reduktion seiner Treibhausgasemissionen. Wichtigstes Treibhausgas ist Kohlendioxid, das durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger in die Atmosphäre freigesetzt wird. Die Reduktionsziele können prinzipiell durch eine Verminderung der Emissionen sowie durch die Schaffung von Kohlenstoffsenken erreicht werden. Senken beschreiben dabei die biologische Speicherung von Kohlenstoff in Böden und Wäldern. Eine wichtige Einflussgröße auf diese Prozesse stellt die räumliche Dynamik der Landnutzung einer Region dar. In dieser Arbeit wird das Modellsystem HILLS entwickelt und zur Simulation dieser komplexen Wirkbeziehungen im Bundesland Hessen genutzt. Ziel ist es, mit HILLS über eine Analyse des aktuellen Zustands hinaus auch Szenarien über Wege der zukünftigen regionalen Entwicklung von Landnutzung und ihrer Wirkung auf den Kohlenstoffhaushalt bis 2020 zu untersuchen. Für die Abbildung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik von Landnutzung in Hessen wird das Modell LUCHesse entwickelt. Seine Aufgabe ist die Simulation der relevanten Prozesse auf einem 1 km2 Raster, wobei die Raten der Änderung exogen als Flächentrends auf Ebene der hessischen Landkreise vorgegeben werden. LUCHesse besteht aus Teilmodellen für die Prozesse: (A) Ausbreitung von Siedlungs- und Gewerbefläche, (B) Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor sowie (C) Neuanlage von Waldflächen (Aufforstung). Jedes Teilmodell umfasst Methoden zur Bewertung der Standorteignung der Rasterzellen für unterschiedliche Landnutzungsklassen und zur Zuordnung der Trendvorgaben zu solchen Rasterzellen, die jeweils am besten für eine Landnutzungsklasse geeignet sind. Eine Validierung der Teilmodelle erfolgt anhand von statistischen Daten für den Zeitraum von 1990 bis 2000. Als Ergebnis eines Simulationslaufs werden für diskrete Zeitschritte digitale Karten der Landnutzugsverteilung in Hessen erzeugt. Zur Simulation der Kohlenstoffspeicherung wird eine modifizierte Version des Ökosystemmodells Century entwickelt (GIS-Century). Sie erlaubt einen gesteuerten Simulationslauf in Jahresschritten und unterstützt die Integration des Modells als Komponente in das HILLS Modellsystem. Es werden verschiedene Anwendungsschemata für GIS-Century entwickelt, mit denen die Wirkung der Stilllegung von Ackerflächen, der Aufforstung sowie der Bewirtschaftung bereits bestehender Wälder auf die Kohlenstoffspeicherung untersucht werden kann. Eine Validierung des Modells und der Anwendungsschemata erfolgt anhand von Feld- und Literaturdaten. HILLS implementiert eine sequentielle Kopplung von LUCHesse mit GIS-Century. Die räumliche Kopplung geschieht dabei auf dem 1 km2 Raster, die zeitliche Kopplung über die Einführung eines Landnutzungsvektors, der die Beschreibung der Landnutzungsänderung einer Rasterzelle während des Simulationszeitraums enthält. Außerdem integriert HILLS beide Modelle über ein dienste- und datenbankorientiertes Konzept in ein Geografisches Informationssystem (GIS). Auf diesem Wege können die GIS-Funktionen zur räumlichen Datenhaltung und Datenverarbeitung genutzt werden. Als Anwendung des Modellsystems wird ein Referenzszenario für Hessen mit dem Zeithorizont 2020 berechnet. Das Szenario setzt im Agrarsektor eine Umsetzung der AGENDA 2000 Politik voraus, die in großem Maße zu Stilllegung von Ackerflächen führt, während für den Bereich Siedlung und Gewerbe sowie Aufforstung die aktuellen Trends der Flächenausdehnung fortgeschrieben werden. Mit HILLS ist es nun möglich, die Wirkung dieser Landnutzungsänderungen auf die biologische Kohlenstoffspeicherung zu quantifizieren. Während die Ausdehnung von Siedlungsflächen als Kohlenstoffquelle identifiziert werden kann (37 kt C/a), findet sich die wichtigste Senke in der Bewirtschaftung bestehender Waldflächen (794 kt C/a). Weiterhin führen die Stilllegung von Ackerfläche (26 kt C/a) sowie Aufforstung (29 kt C/a) zu einer zusätzlichen Speicherung von Kohlenstoff. Für die Kohlenstoffspeicherung in Böden zeigen die Simulationsexperimente sehr klar, dass diese Senke nur von beschränkter Dauer ist.