The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

Credit risk measures: a case of renewable energy companies

The Basel III will have a significant impact on the European banking sector. In September 2010, supervisors of various countries adopted the new rules proposed by the prudential Committee on Banking Supervision to be applied to the business of credit institutions (hereinafter called ICs) in a phased manner from 2013, assuming to its full implementation by 2019. The purpose of this new regulation is to limit the excessive risk that these institutions took on the period preceding the global financial crisis of 2008. This new regulation is known in slang by Basel III. Depending on the requirement of Basel II for banks and their supervisors to assess the soundness and adequacy of internal risk measurement and credit management systems, the development of methodologies for the validation of internal and external evaluation systems is clearly an important issue . More specifically, there is a need to develop tools to validate the systems used to generate the parameters (such as PD, LGD, EAD and ratings of perceived risk) that serve as starting points for the IRB approach for credit risk. In this context, the work is composed of a number of approaches and tools used to evaluate the robustness of these elements IRB systems.

Modified particle swarm optimization for day-ahead distributed energy resources scheduling including vehicle-to-grid

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Industry energy optimization: A case study in a biodiesel production site

This paper presents a case study of heat exchanger network (HEN) retrofit with the objective to reduce the utilities consumption in a biodiesel production process. Pinch analysis studies allow determining the minimum duty utilities as well the maximum of heat recovery. The existence of heat exchangers for heat recovery already running in the process causes a serious restriction for the implementation of grassroot HEN design based on pinch studies. Maintaining the existing HEN, a set of alternatives with additional heat exchangers was created and analysed using some industrial advice and selection criteria. The final proposed solution allows to increase the actual 18 % of recovery heat of the all heating needs of the process to 23 %, with an estimated annual saving in hot utility of 35 k(sic)/y.

Assessment and optimization of wind energy integration into the power systems: application to the portuguese system

The increasing integration of wind energy in power systems can be responsible for the occurrence of over-generation, especially during the off-peak periods. This paper presents a dedicated methodology to identify and quantify the occurrence of this over-generation and to evaluate some of the solutions that can be adopted to mitigate this problem. The methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in which the wind energy is expected to represent more than 25% of the installed capacity in a near future. The results show that the pumped-hydro units will not provide enough energy storage capacity and, therefore, wind curtailments are expected to occur in the Portuguese system. Additional energy storage devices can be implemented to offset the wind energy curtailments. However, the investment analysis performed show that they are not economically viable, due to the present high capital costs involved.

Electric vehicles as a mean to reduce, energy, emissions and electricity costs

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

Monitorização de sistema de baterias para veículos elétricos

Uma das maiores preocupações do mundo neste momento prende-se com o facto da grande dependência do petróleo e seus aglomerados. Esta dependência causa dois problemas: novos estudos fomentam o começo da escassez deste produto, atirando para cima o preço deste material precioso, e a poluição que que este causa. Um dos sectores mais dependentes e que mais polui, é o dos transportes. Nos últimos anos, o mundo teve finalmente noção deste problema e uma das apostas neste sector é o desenvolvimento da célula de combustível, uma tecnologia que utiliza água como combustível, podendo ser reutilizada. É uma tecnologia ainda em fase de introdução pelo que, para já, a médio prazo não será solução. Uma solução intermédia é a utilização de energia elétrica como ―combustível‖. Apesar de grande parte da produção de energia elétrica ser a partir da queima de derivados de petróleo, os motores elétricos são por si só muito mais eficientes comparando com os motores de combustão. Não se vai aqui debater se são uma solução com viabilidade devido à questão da transferência da dependência do petróleo do sector dos transportes para o sector da produção de energia elétrica. O objetivo deste trabalho será desenvolver um sistema de faça a gestão do ―combustível‖ dos veículos elétricos, ou seja, baterias. Essa gestão tem como objetivo aumentar a autonomia do veículo e prolongar o tempo de vida das baterias. Na primeira fase, uma introdução à atualidade dos veículos elétricos, fazendo uma análise às diferentes soluções. Serão referidas os diferentes tipos de baterias e suas características, passando depois para exemplos de sistemas de gestão de baterias. A explicação da ideia para este sistema vem com o capítulo projeto, ficando a implementação para o capítulo seguinte.

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Análise do mercado de serviços de regulação de frequência secundária e terciária no sistema eléctrico português

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica Ramo Energia

Energy efficiency of quadruped gaits

This paper studies periodic gaits of quadruped locomotion systems. The purpose is to determine the best set of gait and locomotion variables during walking, for different robot velocities, based on two formulated performance measures. A set of experiments reveals the influence of the gait and locomotion variables upon the proposed indices, namely that the gait and the locomotion parameters should be adapted to the robot forward velocity.

Optimising the energy consumption on pultrusion process

This study is based on a previous experimental work in which embedded cylindrical heaters were applied to a pultrusion machine die, and resultant energetic performance compared with that achieved with the former heating system based on planar resistances. The previous work allowed to conclude that the use of embedded resistances enhances significantly the energetic performance of pultrusion process, leading to 57% decrease of energy consumption. However, the aforementioned study was developed with basis on an existing pultrusion die, which only allowed a single relative position for the heaters. In the present work, new relative positions for the heaters were investigated in order to optimise heat distribution process and energy consumption. Finite Elements Analysis was applied as an efficient tool to identify the best relative position of the heaters into the die, taking into account the usual parameters involved in the process and the control system already tested in the previous study. The analysis was firstly developed based on eight cylindrical heaters located in four different location plans. In a second phase, in order to refine the results, a new approach was adopted using sixteen heaters with the same total power. Final results allow to conclude that the correct positioning of the heaters can contribute to about 10% of energy consumption reduction, decreasing the production costs and leading to a better eco-efficiency of pultrusion process.

Gestão de instalações eléctricas para optimização do desempenho, eficiência e qualidade de energia em grandes edifícios com integração de Miniprodução

As alterações climáticas e as emissões de CO2 são questões que suscitam a nível internacional e nacional o desenvolvimento de estratégias que atenuem os seus impactes. A Eficiência Energética (EE) é essencial para que num futuro próximo não haja impactes significativos no meio ambiente devido a elevado e ineficiente consumo energético. A União Europeia (UE) e Portugal têm desenvolvido políticas e programas que estimulam a eficiência energética, bem como a diminuição de gases com efeito de estufa (GEE) e a promoção da utilização de fontes de energia renovável. Por outro lado vivemos numa sociedade que passa cerca de 80% do seu tempo em edifícios e, nestes, é consumida 40% da energia mundial. Com uma dependência energética superior a 80%, Portugal tem vindo a apostar, nos últimos anos, em fontes de energia renovável. Esta aposta serve como substituição de fontes, mas não leva directamente à redução de consumos. A redução da factura de energia só pode ser atingida com uma maior eficiência energética e melhores práticas de gestão de energia em edifícios, transportes e industria. Esta dissertação centra-se especificamente num conjunto de edifícios públicos, património municipal da autarquia de Matosinhos, cujo modelo de fornecimento da energia eléctrica é passível de análise crítica no sentido de uma optimização radical ao nível da concepção da rede e exploração, com consequente redução de custos ao nível da facturação. Esta nova metodologia de exploração e gestão de sistemas eléctricos incidirá na criação de um “campus” energético autárquico resultante do novo layout da rede e respectivo fornecimento de energia a partir da rede de distribuição pública. O estudo permitirá fornecer ferramentas fundamentais para a gestão municipal e empresarial ao nível da sustentabilidade energética nos edifícios públicos com abrangência aos serviços empresariais. De referir que a gestão das instalações eléctricas para optimização do desempenho, eficiência e qualidade de energia é aplicável aos 308 municípios nacionais com relevância para as empresas que apresentam consumos significativos nos seus edifícios. Enquanto funcionário da Câmara Municipal de Matosinhos, este município foi uma escolha natural como referência, na análise da relação existente entre a administração local e a gestão da energia. Para ajudar à análise foi efectuado um benchmarketing a cinco edifícios municipais: Edifício dos Paços do Concelho, Biblioteca Municipal Florbela Espanca, Palacete Visconde Trevões, ex-Edifício dos SMAS e Edifício do ex-Tribunal, visando potenciar a correcta gestão de energia destes edifícios por parte das entidades que os gerem, perante novas oportunidades de melhoria e soluções encontradas. Como contributo às metas impostas pela Directiva 2009/28/CE para 2020, a qual prevê uma redução de 20% no consumo final de energia através da eficiência energética, a incorporação de 20% de energia renovável no consumo energético global e a consequente redução em 20% da emissão de GEE, é apresentado um estudo ao nível de um parque fotovoltaico com a componente técnica e económica.

Estimating Effective Slowdown of Tasks in Energy-Aware Clouds

Consolidation consists in scheduling multiple virtual machines onto fewer servers in order to improve resource utilization and to reduce operational costs due to power consumption. However, virtualization technologies do not offer performance isolation, causing applications’ slowdown. In this work, we propose a performance enforcing mechanism, composed of a slowdown estimator, and a interference- and power-aware scheduling algorithm. The slowdown estimator determines, based on noisy slowdown data samples obtained from state-of-the-art slowdown meters, if tasks will complete within their deadlines, invoking the scheduling algorithm if needed. When invoked, the scheduling algorithm builds performance and power aware virtual clusters to successfully execute the tasks. We conduct simulations injecting synthetic jobs which characteristics follow the last version of the Google Cloud tracelogs. The results indicate that our strategy can be efficiently integrated with state-of-the-art slowdown meters to fulfil contracted SLAs in real-world environments, while reducing operational costs in about 12%.

Towards high-available and energy-efficient virtual computing environments in the cloud

Empowered by virtualisation technology, cloud infrastructures enable the construction of flexi- ble and elastic computing environments, providing an opportunity for energy and resource cost optimisation while enhancing system availability and achieving high performance. A crucial re- quirement for effective consolidation is the ability to efficiently utilise system resources for high- availability computing and energy-efficiency optimisation to reduce operational costs and carbon footprints in the environment. Additionally, failures in highly networked computing systems can negatively impact system performance substantially, prohibiting the system from achieving its initial objectives. In this paper, we propose algorithms to dynamically construct and readjust vir- tual clusters to enable the execution of users’ jobs. Allied with an energy optimising mechanism to detect and mitigate energy inefficiencies, our decision-making algorithms leverage virtuali- sation tools to provide proactive fault-tolerance and energy-efficiency to virtual clusters. We conducted simulations by injecting random synthetic jobs and jobs using the latest version of the Google cloud tracelogs. The results indicate that our strategy improves the work per Joule ratio by approximately 12.9% and the working efficiency by almost 15.9% compared with other state-of-the-art algorithms.

Saving energy in the GFRP pultrusion process

This study addresses to the optimization of pultrusion manufacturing process from the energy-consumption point of view. The die heating system of external platen heaters commonly used in the pultrusion machines is one of the components that contribute the most to the high consumption of energy of pultrusion process. Hence, instead of the conventional multi-planar heaters, a new internal die heating system that leads to minor heat losses is proposed. The effect of the number and relative position of the embedded heaters along the die is also analysed towards the setting up of the optimum arrangement that minimizes both the energy rate and consumption. Simulation and optimization processes were greatly supported by Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and calibrated with basis on the temperature profile computed through thermography imaging techniques. The main outputs of this study allow to conclude that the use of embedded cylindrical resistances instead of external planar heaters leads to drastic reductions of both the power consumption and the warm-up periods of the die heating system. For the analysed die tool and process, savings on energy consumption up to 60% and warm-up period stages less than an half hour were attained with the new internal heating system. The improvements achieved allow reducing the power requirements on pultrusion process, and thus minimize industrial costs and contribute to a more sustainable pultrusion manufacturing industry.