Ocular surface changes with short-term contact lens wear

Contact lenses are a common method for the correction of refractive errors of the eye. While there have been significant advancements in contact lens designs and materials over the past few decades, the lenses still represent a foreign object in the ocular environment and may lead to physiological as well as mechanical effects on the eye. When contact lenses are placed in the eye, the ocular anatomical structures behind and in front of the lenses are directly affected. This thesis presents a series of experiments that investigate the mechanical and physiological effects of the short-term use of contact lenses on anterior and posterior corneal topography, corneal thickness, the eyelids, tarsal conjunctiva and tear film surface quality. The experimental paradigm used in these studies was a repeated measures, cross-over study design where subjects wore various types of contact lenses on different days and the lenses were varied in one or more key parameters (e.g. material or design). Both, old and newer lens materials were investigated, soft and rigid lenses were used, high and low oxygen permeability materials were tested, toric and spherical lens designs were examined, high and low powers and small and large diameter lenses were used in the studies. To establish the natural variability in the ocular measurements used in the studies, each experiment also contained at least one “baseline” day where an identical measurement protocol was followed, with no contact lenses worn. In this way, changes associated with contact lens wear were considered in relation to those changes that occurred naturally during the 8 hour period of the experiment. In the first study, the regional distribution and magnitude of change in corneal thickness and topography was investigated in the anterior and posterior cornea after short-term use of soft contact lenses in 12 young adults using the Pentacam. Four different types of contact lenses (Silicone hydrogel/ Spherical/–3D, Silicone Hydrogel/Spherical/–7D, Silicone Hydrogel/Toric/–3D and HEMA/Toric/–3D) of different materials, designs and powers were worn for 8 hours each, on 4 different days. The natural diurnal changes in corneal thickness and curvature were measured on two separate days before any contact lens wear. Significant diurnal changes in corneal thickness and curvature within the duration of the study were observed and these were taken into consideration for calculating the contact lens induced corneal changes. Corneal thickness changed significantly with lens wear and the greatest corneal swelling was seen with the hydrogel (HEMA) toric lens with a noticeable regional swelling of the cornea beneath the stabilization zones, the thickest regions of the lenses. The anterior corneal surface generally showed a slight flattening with lens wear. All contact lenses resulted in central posterior corneal steepening, which correlated with the relative degree of corneal swelling. The corneal swelling induced by the silicone hydrogel contact lenses was typically less than the natural diurnal thinning of the cornea over this same period (i.e. net thinning). This highlights why it is important to consider the natural diurnal variations in corneal thickness observed from morning to afternoon to accurately interpret contact lens induced corneal swelling. In the second experiment, the relative influence of lenses of different rigidity (polymethyl methacrylate – PMMA, rigid gas permeable – RGP and silicone hydrogel – SiHy) and diameters (9.5, 10.5 and 14.0) on corneal thickness, topography, refractive power and wavefront error were investigated. Four different types of contact lenses (PMMA/9.5, RGP/9.5, RGP/10.5, SiHy/14.0), were worn by 14 young healthy adults for a period of 8 hours on 4 different days. There was a clear association between fluorescein fitting pattern characteristics (i.e. regions of minimum clearance in the fluorescein pattern) and the resulting corneal shape changes. PMMA lenses resulted in significant corneal swelling (more in the centre than periphery) along with anterior corneal steepening and posterior flattening. RGP lenses, on the other hand, caused less corneal swelling (more in the periphery than centre) along with opposite effects on corneal curvature, anterior corneal flattening and posterior steepening. RGP lenses also resulted in a clinically and statistically significant decrease in corneal refractive power (ranging from 0.99 to 0.01 D), large enough to affect vision and require adjustment in the lens power. Wavefront analysis also showed a significant increase in higher order aberrations after PMMA lens wear, which may partly explain previous reports of "spectacle blur" following PMMA lens wear. We further explored corneal curvature, thickness and refractive changes with back surface toric and spherical RGP lenses in a group of 6 subjects with toric corneas. The lenses were worn for 8 hours and measurements were taken before and after lens wear, as in previous experiments. Both lens types caused anterior corneal flattening and a decrease in corneal refractive power but the changes were greater with the spherical lens. The spherical lens also caused a significant decrease in WTR astigmatism (WRT astigmatism defined as major axis within 30 degrees of horizontal). Both the lenses caused slight posterior corneal steepening and corneal swelling, with a greater effect in the periphery compared to the central cornea. Eyelid position, lid-wiper and tarsal conjunctival staining were also measured in Experiment 2 after short-term use of the rigid and SiHy contact lenses. Digital photos of the external eyes were captured for lid position analysis. The lid-wiper region of the marginal conjunctiva was stained using fluorescein and lissamine green dyes and digital photos were graded by an independent masked observer. A grading scale was developed in order to describe the tarsal conjunctival staining. A significant decrease in the palpebral aperture height (blepharoptosis) was found after wearing of PMMA/9.5 and RGP/10.5 lenses. All three rigid contact lenses caused a significant increase in lid-wiper and tarsal staining after 8 hours of lens wear. There was also a significant diurnal increase in tarsal staining, even without contact lens wear. These findings highlight the need for better contact lens edge design to minimise the interactions between the lid and contact lens edge during blinking and more lubricious contact lens surfaces to reduce ocular surface micro-trauma due to friction and for. Tear film surface quality (TFSQ) was measured using a high-speed videokeratoscopy technique in Experiment 2. TFSQ was worse with all the lenses compared to baseline (PMMA/9.5, RGP/9.5, RGP/10.5, and SiHy/14) in the afternoon (after 8 hours) during normal and suppressed blinking conditions. The reduction in TFSQ was similar with all the contact lenses used, irrespective of their material and diameter. An unusual pattern of change in TFSQ in suppressed blinking conditions was also found. The TFSQ with contact lens was found to decrease until a certain time after which it improved to a value even better than the bare eye. This is likely to be due to the tear film drying completely over the surface of the contact lenses. The findings of this study also show that there is still a scope for improvement in contact lens materials in terms of better wettability and hydrophilicity in order to improve TFSQ and patient comfort. These experiments showed that a variety of changes can occur in the anterior eye as a result of the short-term use of a range of commonly used contact lens types. The greatest corneal changes occurred with lenses manufactured from older HEMA and PMMA lens materials, whereas modern SiHy and rigid gas permeable materials caused more subtle changes in corneal shape and thickness. All lenses caused signs of micro-trauma to the eyelid wiper and palpebral conjunctiva, although rigid lenses appeared to cause more significant changes. Tear film surface quality was also significantly reduced with all types of contact lenses. These short-term changes in the anterior eye are potential markers for further long term changes and the relative differences between lens types that we have identified provide an indication of areas of contact lens design and manufacture that warrant further development.

Timing of births and endometrial cancer risk in Swedish women

While a protective long-term effect of parity on endometrial cancer risk is well established, the impact of timing of births is not fully understood. We examined the relationship between endometrial cancer risk and reproductive characteristics in a population-based cohort of 2,674,465 Swedish women, 20–72 years of age. During follow-up from 1973 through 2004, 7,386 endometrial cancers were observed. Compared to uniparous women, nulliparous women had a significantly elevated endometrial cancer risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.32, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22–1.42). Endometrial cancer risk decreased with increasing parity; compared to uniparous women, women with ≥4 births had a HR=0.66 (95% CI, 0.59–0.74); p-trend < 0.001. Among multiparous women, we observed no relationship of risk with age at first birth after adjustment for other reproductive factors. While we initially observed a decreased risk with later ages at last birth, this appeared to reflect a stronger relationship with time since last birth, with women with shorter times being at lowest risk. In models for multiparous women that included number of births, age at first and last birth, and time since last birth, age at last birth was not associated with endometrial cancer risk, while shorter time since last birth and increased parity were associated with statistically significantly reduced endometrial cancer risks. The HR was 3.95 (95%CI; 2.17–7.20; p-trend=<0.0001) for women with ≥25 years since a last birth compared to women having given birth within 4 years. Our findings support that clearance of initiated cells during delivery may be important in endometrial carcinogenesis. Keywords: endometrial carcinoma, parity, registry, reproductive factors

Acculturation stress in South Sudanese refugees : impact on marital relationships

A qualitative approach was used to explore the impact of acculturation stress on the marital relationships of South Sudanese refugees settled in Brisbane, Australia. Thirteen refugees, who were currently or previously married, participated in three gender specific focus groups. The perceived causes and possible solutions of conflict were thoroughly explored. Hypothetical scenarios were used to facilitate group discussion. Major issues causing conflict between couples were identified as: the management of finances and lack of family and social support. Several other areas of acculturation stress also emerged as factors associated with marital stress. There was a dissonance regarding the adherence to cultural gender roles. Freedom provided to women in Australia caused tension between the couples. Law enforcement officers were perceived as lacking cultural understanding and misinterpreting the couple distress. Finally, limited information provided to refugees pre and post migration was considered to hinder adjustment. The participants suggested a number of practical solutions to these issues which are potentially useful in guiding future refugee settlement programs.

A novel CDVM based high-voltage converter using low power solid-state switches and a tuned resonant circuit designed for pulsed power applications

A novel concept of producing high dc voltage for pulsed-power applications is proposed in this paper. The topology consists of an LC resonant circuit supplied through a tuned alternating waveform that is produced by an inverter. The control scheme is based on the detection of variations in the resonant frequency and adjustment of the switching signal patterns for the inverter to produce a square waveform with exactly the same frequencies. Therefore the capacitor voltage oscillates divergently with an increasing amplitude. A simple one-stage capacitor-diode voltage multiplier (CDVM) connected to the resonant capacitor then rectifies the alternating voltage and gives a dc level equal to twice the input voltage amplitude. The produced high voltage appears then in the form of high-voltage pulses across the load. A basic model is simulated by Simulink platform of MATLAB and the results are included in the paper.

On becoming an undergraduate : transition to university

This paper investigates the first year experience of undergraduates with a view to discovering some of the factors which determine a successful negotiation of the transitional phase. The paper begins with a theoretical framework of transition based on the three models of Van Gennep (1960), Viney (1980) and Tinto (1987) and applied to the educational transition from school to University. A new model of transition is presented which looks at the relationship between social and academic adjustment of students to university over time.

Fear of Crime in Expatriate Australians in Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

This is an analytical report of a qualitative study of fear of crime in six Australian expatriates living in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) Vietnam. Addressing the primary question of what changes, or impacts upon, fear of crime in Australian expatriates in HCMC Vietnam, the research paid particular attention to studying the differences in fear of crime when respondents became expatriates, and the impact of incivilities and access to media. Each of the respondents indicated that they felt safer in Vietnam than in Australia. An analysis of the respondents’ responses indicates that this feeling of safety did not occur on arrival but after a short period of adjustment. The findings of this research support the existing theories on fear of crime and highlight the importance of context in predicting the impact of such factors as media and incivilities. The study has practical applications for both private and public sector organisations seeking to deploy staff to HCMC and adds to the current significant body of fear of crime research by specifically examining the issue of fear of crime amongst expatriates.

Managing open incremental process innovation : absorptive capacity and distributed learning

In this conceptual article, we extend earlier work on Open Innovation and Absorptive Capacity. We suggest that the literature on Absorptive Capacity does not place sufficient emphasis on distributed knowledge and learning or on the application of innovative knowledge. To accomplish physical transformations, organisations need specific Innovative Capacities that extend beyond knowledge management. Accessive Capacity is the ability to collect, sort and analyse knowledge from both internal and external sources. Adaptive Capacity is needed to ensure that new pieces of equipment are suitable for the organisation's own purposes even though they may have been originally developed for other uses. Integrative Capacity makes it possible for a new or modified piece of equipment to be fitted into an existing production process with a minimum of inessential and expensive adjustment elsewhere in the process. These Innovative Capacities are controlled and coordinated by Innovative Management Capacity, a higher-order dynamic capability.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Ethnic differences in body fat distribution among Asian pre-pubertal children: A cross-sectional multicenter study

Background Ethnic differences in body fat distribution contribute to ethnic differences in cardiovascular morbidities and diabetes. However few data are available on differences in fat distribution in Asian children from various backgrounds. Therefore, the current study aimed to explore ethnic differences in body fat distribution among Asian children from four countries. Methods A total of 758 children aged 8-10 y from China, Lebanon, Malaysia and Thailand were recruited using a non-random purposive sampling approach to enrol children encompassing a wide BMI range. Height, weight, waist circumference (WC), fat mass (FM, derived from total body water [TBW] estimation using the deuterium dilution technique) and skinfold thickness (SFT) at biceps, triceps, subscapular, supraspinale and medial calf were collected. Results After controlling for height and weight, Chinese and Thai children had a significantly higher WC than their Lebanese and Malay counterparts. Chinese and Thais tended to have higher trunk fat deposits than Lebanese and Malays reflected in trunk SFT, trunk/upper extremity ratio or supraspinale/upper extremity ratio after adjustment for age and total body fat. The subscapular/supraspinale skinfold ratio was lower in Chinese and Thais compared with Lebanese and Malays after correcting for trunk SFT. Conclusions Asian pre-pubertal children from different origins vary in body fat distribution. These results indicate the importance of population-specific WC cut-off points or other fat distribution indices to identify the population at risk of obesity-related health problems.

Does metabolic compensation explain the majority of less-than-expected weight loss in obese adults during a short-term severe diet and exercise intervention?

Objective: We investigated to what extent changes in metabolic rate and composition of weight loss explained the less-than-expected weight loss in obese men and women during a diet-plus-exercise intervention. Design: 16 obese men and women (41 ± 9 years; BMI 39 ± 6 kg/m2) were investigated in energy balance before, after and twice during a 12-week VLED (565–650 kcal/day) plus exercise (aerobic plus resistance training) intervention. The relative energy deficit (EDef) from baseline requirements was severe (74-87%). Body composition was measured by deuterium dilution and DXA and resting metabolic rate (RMR) by indirect calorimetry. Fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM) were converted into energy equivalents using constants: 9.45 kcal/gFM and 1.13 kcal/gFFM. Predicted weight loss was calculated from the energy deficit using the '7700 kcal/kg rule'. Results: Changes in weight (-18.6 ± 5.0 kg), FM (-15.5 ± 4.3 kg), and FFM (-3.1 ± 1.9 kg) did not differ between genders. Measured weight loss was on average 67% of the predicted value, but ranged from 39 to 94%. Relative EDef was correlated with the decrease in RMR (R=0.70, P<0.01) and the decrease in RMR correlated with the difference between actual and expected weight loss (R=0.51, P<0.01). Changes in metabolic rate explained on average 67% of the less-than-expected weight loss, and variability in the proportion of weight lost as FM accounted for a further 5%. On average, after adjustment for changes in metabolic rate and body composition of weight lost, actual weight loss reached 90% of predicted values. Conclusion: Although weight loss was 33% lower than predicted at baseline from standard energy equivalents, the majority of this differential was explained by physiological variables. While lower-than-expected weight loss is often attributed to incomplete adherence to prescribed interventions, the influence of baseline calculation errors and metabolic down-regulation should not be discounted.

Investigating the dynamics of the psychological contract : how and why individuals' contract beliefs change

The overall objective of this thesis is to explore how and why the content of individuals' psychological contracts changes over time. The contract is generally understood as "individual beliefs, shaped by the organisation, regarding the terms of an exchange agreement between individuals and their organisation" (Rousseau, 1995, p. 9). With an overall study sampling frame of 320 graduate organisational newcomers, a mixed method longitudinal research design comprised of three sequential, inter-related studies is employed in order to capture the change process. From the 15 semi-structured interviews conducted in Study 1, the key findings included identifying a relatively high degree of mutuality between employees' and their managers' reciprocal contract beliefs around the time of organisational entry. Also, at this time, individuals had developed specific components of their contract content through a mix of social network information (regarding broader employment expectations) and perceptions of various elements of their particular organisation's reputation (for more firm-specific expectations). Study 2 utilised a four-wave survey approach (available to the full sampling frame) over the 14 months following organisational entry to explore the 'shape' of individuals' contract change trajectories and the role of four theorised change predictors in driving these trajectories. The predictors represented an organisational-level informational cue (perceptions of corporate reputation), a dyadic-level informational cue (perceptions of manager-employee relationship quality) and two individual difference variables (affect and hardiness). Through the use of individual growth modelling, the findings showed differences in the general change patterns across contract content components of perceived employer (exhibiting generally quadratic change patterns) and employee (exhibiting generally no-change patterns) obligations. Further, individuals differentially used the predictor variables to construct beliefs about specific contract content. While both organisational- and dyadic-level cues were focused upon to construct employer obligation beliefs, organisational-level cues and individual difference variables were focused upon to construct employee obligation beliefs. Through undertaking 26 semi-structured interviews, Study 3 focused upon gaining a richer understanding of why participants' contracts changed, or otherwise, over the study period, with a particular focus upon the roles of breach and violation. Breach refers to an employee's perception that an employer obligation has not been met and violation refers to the negative and affective employee reactions which may ensue following a breach. The main contribution of these findings was identifying that subsequent to a breach or violation event a range of 'remediation effects' could be activated by employees which, depending upon their effectiveness, served to instigate either breach or contract repair or both. These effects mostly instigated broader contract repair and were generally cognitive strategies enacted by an individual to re-evaluate the breach situation and re-focus upon other positive aspects of the employment relationship. As such, the findings offered new evidence for a clear distinction between remedial effects which serve to only repair the breach (and thus the contract) and effects which only repair the contract more broadly; however, when effective, both resulted in individuals again viewing their employment relationships positively. Overall, in response to the overarching research question of this thesis, how and why individuals' psychological contract beliefs change, individuals do indeed draw upon various information sources, particularly at the organisational-level, as cues or guides in shaping their contract content. Further, the 'shapes' of the changes in beliefs about employer and employee obligations generally follow different, and not necessarily linear, trajectories over time. Finally, both breach and violation and also remedial actions, which address these occurrences either by remedying the breach itself (and thus the contract) or the contract only, play central roles in guiding individuals' contract changes to greater or lesser degrees. The findings from the thesis provide both academics and practitioners with greater insights into how employees construct their contract beliefs over time, the salient informational cues used to do this and how the effects of breach and violation can be mitigated through creating an environment which facilitates the use of effective remediation strategies.

Spatial inequalities in colorectal and breast cancer survival : premature deaths and associated factors

This study examines the influence of cancer stage, distance to treatment facilities and area disadvantage on breast and colorectal cancer spatial survival inequalities. We also estimate the number of premature deaths after adjusting for cancer stage to quantify the impact of spatial survival inequalities. Population-based descriptive study of residents aged <90 years in Queensland, Australia diagnosed with primary invasive breast (25,202 females) or colorectal (14,690 males, 11,700 females) cancers during 1996-2007. Bayesian hierarchical models explored relative survival inequalities across 478 regions. Cancer stage and disadvantage explained the spatial inequalities in breast cancer survival, however spatial inequalities in colorectal cancer survival persisted after adjustment. Of the 6,019 colorectal cancer deaths within 5 years of diagnosis, 470 (8%) were associated with spatial inequalities in non-diagnostic factors, i.e. factors beyond cancer stage at diagnosis. For breast cancers, of 2,412 deaths, 170 (7%) were related to spatial inequalities in non-diagnostic factors. Quantifying premature deaths can increase incentive for action to reduce these spatial inequalities.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Infertility in Australia circa 1980 : an historical population perspective on the uptake of fertility treatment by Australian women born in 1946-51

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of lifetime infertility in Australian women born in 1946-51 and examine their uptake of treatment. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1946-51 (n=13,715) completed up to four mailed surveys from 1996 to 2004. The odds of infertility were estimated using logistic regression with adjustment for socio-demographic and reproductive factors. Results: Among participants, 92.1% had been pregnant. For women who had been pregnant (n=12738): 56.5% had at least one birth but no pregnancy loss (miscarriage and/or termination); 39.9% experienced both birth and loss; and 3.6% had a loss only. The lifetime prevalence of infertility was 11.0%. Among women who reported infertility (n=1511), 41.7% used treatment. Women had higher odds of infertility when they had reproductive histories of losses only (OR range 9.0-43.5) or had never been pregnant (OR=15.7, 95%CI 11.8-20.8); and higher odds for treatment: losses only (OR range 2.5-9.8); or never pregnant (1.96, 1.28-3.00). Women who delayed their first birth until aged 30+ years had higher odds of treatment (OR range 3.2-4.3). Conclusions: About one in ten women experienced infertility and almost half used some form of treatment, especially those attempting pregnancy after 1980. Older first time mothers had an increased uptake of treatment as assisted reproductive technologies (ART) developed. Implications: This study provided evidence of the early uptake of treatment prior to 1979 when the national register of invasive ART was developed and later uptake prior to 1998 when data on non-invasive ART were first collected.