Monetary policy rules and financial stress: does financial instability matter for monetary

We examine whether and how main central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. We employ a new methodology for monetary policy rules estimation, which allows for time-varying response coefficients as well as corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada and Sweden together with a new financial stress dataset developed by the International Monetary Fund allows not only testing whether the central banks responded to financial stress but also detects the periods and type of stress that were the most worrying for monetary authorities and to quantify the intensity of policy response. Our findings suggest that central banks often change policy

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Patent policy, patent pools, and the accumulation of claims in sequential innovation

We present a dynamic model where the accumulation of patents generates an increasing number of claims on sequential innovation. We compare innovation activity under three regimes -patents, no-patents, and patent pools- and find that none of them can reach the first best. We find that the first best can be reached through a decentralized tax-subsidy mechanism, by which innovators receive a subsidy when they innovate, and are taxed with subsequent innovations. This finding implies that optimal transfers work in the exact opposite way as traditional patents. Finally, we consider patents of finite duration and determine the optimal patent length.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

The de facto independence of regulatory agencies and its consequences for policy making and regulatory outcomes

This dissertation focuses on the practice of regulatory governance, throughout the study of the functioning of formally independent regulatory agencies (IRAs), with special attention to their de facto independence. The research goals are grounded on a "neo-positivist" (or "reconstructed positivist") position (Hawkesworth 1992; Radaelli 2000b; Sabatier 2000). This perspective starts from the ontological assumption that even if subjective perceptions are constitutive elements of political phenomena, a real world exists beyond any social construction and can, however imperfectly, become the object of scientific inquiry. Epistemologically, it follows that hypothetical-deductive theories with explanatory aims can be tested by employing a proper methodology and set of analytical techniques. It is thus possible to make scientific inferences and general conclusions to a certain extent, according to a Bayesian conception of knowledge, in order to update the prior scientific beliefs in the truth of the related hypotheses (Howson 1998), while acknowledging the fact that the conditions of truth are at least partially subjective and historically determined (Foucault 1988; Kuhn 1970). At the same time, a sceptical position is adopted towards the supposed disjunction between facts and values and the possibility of discovering abstract universal laws in social science. It has been observed that the current version of capitalism corresponds to the golden age of regulation, and that since the 1980s no government activity in OECD countries has grown faster than regulatory functions (Jacobs 1999). Following an apparent paradox, the ongoing dynamics of liberalisation, privatisation, decartelisation, internationalisation, and regional integration hardly led to the crumbling of the state, but instead promoted a wave of regulatory growth in the face of new risks and new opportunities (Vogel 1996). Accordingly, a new order of regulatory capitalism is rising, implying a new division of labour between state and society and entailing the expansion and intensification of regulation (Levi-Faur 2005). The previous order, relying on public ownership and public intervention and/or on sectoral self-regulation by private actors, is being replaced by a more formalised, expert-based, open, and independently regulated model of governance. Independent regulation agencies (IRAs), that is, formally independent administrative agencies with regulatory powers that benefit from public authority delegated from political decision makers, represent the main institutional feature of regulatory governance (Gilardi 2008). IRAs constitute a relatively new technology of regulation in western Europe, at least for certain domains, but they are increasingly widespread across countries and sectors. For instance, independent regulators have been set up for regulating very diverse issues, such as general competition, banking and finance, telecommunications, civil aviation, railway services, food safety, the pharmaceutical industry, electricity, environmental protection, and personal data privacy. Two attributes of IRAs deserve a special mention. On the one hand, they are formally separated from democratic institutions and elected politicians, thus raising normative and empirical concerns about their accountability and legitimacy. On the other hand, some hard questions about their role as political actors are still unaddressed, though, together with regulatory competencies, IRAs often accumulate executive, (quasi-)legislative, and adjudicatory functions, as well as about their performance.

Diversity of Campylobacter Isolates from Three Activated Sludge Systems

Thermophilic campylobacters were isolated from three sewage plants in Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil and identified. Laboratory analysis of 390 sewage samples showed the presence of 169 thermophilic strains. The results demonstrated that human and animal pathogenic biotypes could be isolated from activated sludge during the initial processing steps. The aeration tank could be considered a barrier to Campylobacter survival. C. jejuni was the prevalent species isolated (40.8%).The most common biotypes were C. jejuni biotype I (21.3%), C. coli biotype I (16%) and C. jejuni biotype II ( 14.8%).

Allelic Diversity at the Merozoite Surface Protein-1 (MSP-1) Locus in Natural Plasmodium falciparum Populations: a Brief Overview

The merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-1) locus of Plasmodium falciparum codes for a major asexual blood-stage antigen currently proposed as a major malaria vaccine candidate. The protein, however, shows extensive polymorphism, which may compromise its use in sub-unit vaccines. Here we compare the patterns of allelic diversity at the MSP-1 locus in wild isolates from three epidemiologically distinct malaria-endemic areas: the hypoendemic southwestern Brazilian Amazon (n = 54), the mesoendemic southern Vietnam (n = 238) and the holoendemic northern Tanzania (n = 79). Fragments of the variable blocks 2, 4a, 4b and 6 or 10 of this single-copy gene were amplified by the polymerase chain reaction, and 24 MSP-1 gene types were defined as unique combinations of allelic types in each variable block. Ten different MSP-1 types were identified in Brazil, 23 in Vietnam and 13 in Tanzania. The proportion of genetically mixed infections (isolates with parasites carrying more than one MSP-1 version) ranged from 39% in Brazil to 44% in Vietnam and 60% in Tanzania. The vast majority (90%) of the typed parasite populations from Brazil and Tanzania belonged to the same seven most frequent MSP-1 gene types. In contrast, these seven gene types corresponded to only 61% of the typed parasite populations from Vietnam. Non-random associations were found between allelic types in blocks 4a and 6 among Vietnamese isolates, the same pattern being observed in independent studies performed in 1994, 1995 and 1996. These results suggest that MSP-1 is under selective pressure in the local parasite population. Nevertheless, the finding that similar MSP-1 type frequencies were found in 1994 and 1996 argues against the prominence of short-term frequency-dependent immune selection of MSP-1 polymorphisms. Non-random associations between MSP-1 allelic types, however, were not detected among isolates from Brazil and Tanzania. A preliminary analysis of the distribution of MSP-1 gene types per host among isolates from Tanzania, but not among those from Brazil and Vietnam, shows significant deviation from that expected under the null hypothesis of independent distribution of parasites carrying different gene types in the human hosts. Some epidemiological consequences of these findings are discussed

Genetic Diversity in Natural Populations of New World Leishmania

Our results have shown the wide diversity of parasites within New World Leishmania. Biochemical and molecular characterization of species within the genus has revealed that much of the population heterogeneity has a genetic basis. The source of genetic diversity among Leishmania appears to arise from predominantly asexual, clonal reproduction, although occasional bouts of sexual reproduction can not be ruled out. Genetic variation is extensive with some clones widely distributed and others seemingly unique and localized to a particular endemic focus. Epidemiological studies of leishmaniasis has been directed to the ecology and dynamics of transmission of Leishmania species/variants, particularly in localized areas. Future research using molecular techniques should aim to identify and follow Leishmania types in nature and correlate genetic typing with important clinical characteristics such as virulence, pathogenicity, drug resistance and antigenic variation. The epidemiological significance of such variation not only has important implications for the control of the leishmaniases, but would also help to elucidate the evolutionary biology of the causative agents.

Adding diversity to ruthenium (II)-arene anticancer (RAPTA) compounds via click chemistry: the influence of hydrophobic chains

The application of click chemistry to develop libraries of organometallic ruthenium-arene complexes with potential anticancer properties has been investigated. A series of ruthenium-imidazole-triazole complexes, with hydrophobic tails, were prepared from a common precursor via click chemistry. The tail could be attached to the ligand prior to coordination to the ruthenium complex were screened for cytotoxicity in tumourigenic and non-tumourigenic cell lines, and while the compounds were only moderately cytotoxic, good selectivity for tumourigenic cells were abserved.

Diversity of Vibrionaceae bacteria isolated from the haemolymph of the spider crab Maja brachydactyla

Aims: The aim of this study was to characterise and identify vibrios isolated from the haemolymph of apparently healthy adult spider crabs (Maja brachydactyla) wild-caught in the Spanish localities of Galician coast and in the Canary Islands and also from captive animals held at IRTA’s facilities in the Ebro Delta of Catalonia, north-west Spanish Mediterranean coast. Methods and Results: A total of 277 bacterial isolates were obtained, and of these, 171 were characterised with rep-PCR, resulting electrophoretic bands were analysed and clusters formed. Identification of representative strains of each cluster was made by sequencing the 16S rRNA. Samples from animals caught in Galicia and captive at IRTA (around 15–18 C) rendered mostly species belonging to the Splendidus clade (72Æ2 and 76Æ6% respectively), commonly found in cold waters (below 20 C). Higher species diversity was found in the haemolymph of the captive animals. In the warmer Canary Islands waters (around 21 C), the diversity of vibrios is dominated by three clades, Harveyi (Vibrio core group, 39Æ3%), Orientalis (23Æ2%) and Splendidus (21Æ4%) with a species diversity that equals that of the colder captive animals. Conclusions: Differences in the vibrios populations were found in the haemolymph extracted from animals collected from the three localities. Potential new species were found, and their description is under way. Significance and Impact of Study: As with other invertebrates, spider crabs also contain a diverse population of vibrios. These findings should help researchers to diagnose when a crab is infected.

Multilocus sequence analysis reveals the genetic diversity of European fruit tree phytoplasmas and supports the existence of inter-species recombination

The genetic diversity of three temperate fruit tree phytoplasmas ‘Candidatus Phytoplasma prunorum’, ‘Ca. P. mali’ and ‘Ca. P. pyri’ has been established by multilocus sequence analysis. Among the four genetic loci used, the genes imp and aceF distinguished 30 and 24 genotypes, respectively, and showed the highest variability. Percentage of substitution for imp ranged from 50 to 68% according to species. Percentage of substitution varied between 9 and 12% for aceF, whereas it was between 5 and 6% for pnp and secY. In the case of ‘Ca P. prunorum’ the three most prevalent aceF genotypes were detected in both plants and insect vectors, confirming that the prevalent isolates are propagated by insects. The four isolates known to be hypo-virulent had the same aceF sequence, indicating a possible monophyletic origin. Haplotype network reconstructed by eBURST revealed that among the 34 haplotypes of ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, the four hypo-virulent isolates also grouped together in the same clade. Genotyping of some Spanish and Azerbaijanese ‘Ca. P. pyri’ isolates showed that they shared some alleles with ‘Ca. P. prunorum’, supporting for the first time to our knowledge, the existence of inter-species recombination between these two species.