The Economic Case for Fiscal Federalism in Scotland

In this paper we consider the case for assigning tax revenues to Scotland, by which we mean that taxes levied on Scottish tax bases should be returned to the Scottish budget. The budget, however, would continue to be supplemented by transfers from the Westminster budget. This arrangement differs from the current situation whereby public spending is largely financed by a bloc grant from Westminster. Our suggestion falls short of full fiscal federalism for Scotland . meaning that Scotland had control over choice of tax base and of tax rates, and fiscal transfers from Westminster would be minimal. We use propositions drawn from the theory of fiscal federalism to argue for a smaller vertical imbalance between taxes retained in Scotland and public spending in Scotland. A closer matching of spending with taxes would better signal to beneficiaries the true costs of public spending in terms of taxes raised. It would also create more complete incentives for politicians to provide public goods and services in quantities and at qualities that voters are actually willing to pay for. Under the current bloc grant system, the marginal tax cost of spending does not enter into political agents. calculations as spending is out of a fixed total budget. Moreover, the Scottish electorate is hindered in signaling its desire for local public goods and services since the size of the total budget is determined by a rigid formula set by Westminster. At the present time we reject proposals for full fiscal federalism because in sharply reducing vertical imbalance in the Scottish budget, it is likely to worsen horizontal balance between Scotland and the other UK regions. Horizontal balance occurs where similarly situated regions enjoy the same per capita level of public goods and services at the same per capita tax cost. The complete removal of the bloc grant under full fiscal federalism would remove the mechanism that currently promotes horizontal equity in the UK. Variability in own-source tax revenues creates other problems with full fiscal federalism. Taxes derived from North Sea oil would constitute a large proportion of Scottish taxes, but these are known to be volatile in the face of variable oil prices and the pound-dollar exchange rate. At the present time variability in oil tax revenue is absorbed by Westminster. Scotland is insulated through the bloc grant. This risk sharing mechanism would be lost with full fiscal federalism. It is true that Scotland could turn to financial markets to tide itself over oil tax revenue downturns, but as a much smaller and less diversified financial entity than the UK as a whole it would probably have to borrow on less favorable terms than can Westminster. Scotland would have to bear this extra cost itself. Also, with full fiscal federalism it is difficult to see how the Scottish budget could be used as a macroeconomic stabilizer. At present, tax revenue downturns in Scotland - together with the steady bloc grant - are absorbed through an increase in vertical imbalance. This acts as an automatic stabilizer for the Scottish economy. No such mechanism would exist under full fiscal federalism. The borrowing alternative would still exist but on the less favorable terms - as with borrowing to finance oil tax shortfalls.

Performance evaluation in Bayesian adaptive randomization

Bayesian adaptive randomization (BAR) is an attractive approach to allocate more patients to the putatively superior arm based on the interim data while maintains good statistical properties attributed to randomization. Under this approach, patients are adaptively assigned to a treatment group based on the probability that the treatment is better. The basic randomization scheme can be modified by introducing a tuning parameter, replacing the posterior estimated response probability, setting a boundary to randomization probabilities. Under randomization settings comprised of the above modifications, operating characteristics, including type I error, power, sample size, imbalance of sample size, interim success rate, and overall success rate, were evaluated through simulation. All randomization settings have low and comparable type I errors. Increasing tuning parameter decreases power, but increases imbalance of sample size and interim success rate. Compared with settings using the posterior probability, settings using the estimated response rates have higher power and overall success rate, but less imbalance of sample size and lower interim success rate. Bounded settings have higher power but less imbalance of sample size than unbounded settings. All settings have better performance in the Bayesian design than in the frequentist design. This simulation study provided practical guidance on the choice of how to implement the adaptive design. ^

Factors contributing to the attrition of women in the African-American Nutrition for Life study

Background. There is currently a push to increase the number of minorities in cancer clinical trials in an effort to reduce cancer health disparities. Overcoming barriers to clinical trial research for minorities is necessary if we are to achieve the goals of Healthy People 2010. To understand the unexpectedly high rate of attrition in the A NULIFE study, the research team examined the perceived barriers to participation among minority women. The purpose of this study was to determine if either personal or study-related factors influenced healthy pre-menopausal women aged 25-45 years to terminate their participation in the A NULIFE Study. We hypothesized that personal factors were the driving forces for attrition rates in the prevention trial.^ Methods. The target population consisted of eligible women who consented to the A NULIFE study but withdrew prior to being randomized (N= 46), as well as eligible women who completed the informed consent process for the A NULIFE study and withdrew after randomization (N= 42). Examination of attrition rates in this study occurred at a time point when 10 out of 12 participant groups had completed the A NULIFE study. Data involving the 2 groups that were actively engaged in study activities were not used in this analysis. A survey instrument was designed to query the personal and study-related factors that were believed to have contributed to the decision to terminate participation in the A NULIFE study.^ Results. Overall, the highest ranked personal reason that influenced withdrawal from the study was being “too busy” with other obligations. The second highest ranked factor for withdrawal was work obligations. Whereas, more than half of all participants agreed that they were well-informed about the study and considered the study personnel to be approachable, 54% of participants would have been inclined to remain in the study if it were located at a local community center.^ Conclusions. Time commitment was likely a major factor for withdrawal from the A NULIFE study. Future investigators should implement trials within participant communities where possible. Also, focus group settings may provide detailed insight into factors that contribute to the attrition of minorities in cancer clinical trials.^

Assessment of cancer incidence in Titus County, Texas, 1977--1984

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of cancer in Titus County, Texas, through the identification of all cases of cancer that occurred in residents of the county during the period from 1977 to 1984. Data gathered from Texas Cancer Registry, hospital records, and death certificates were analyzed with regard to anatomic site, race, sex, age, city of residence, and place of birth. Adjustment of incidence rates by sex and race allowed comparisons with U.S. rates provided by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER).^ Seven hundred sixty-six (766) cancer cases were identified for the eight year period during 171,536 person-years of observation. In whites, statistically significant standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were found for leukemia (males SIR = 2.70 and females SIR = 2.26), melanoma (males SIR = 1.90 and females SIR = 2.25), lung (males SIR = 1.45) and for multiple myeloma (both sexes combined SIR = 1.86). In blacks, significant excess numbers of cases were found for Hodgkin's disease (males SIR = 8.33 and females SIR = 13.3) and for esophagus and bone considering both sexes together (SIR = 2.68 and 12.54, respectively). Rates for blacks were based on a small population and therefore unstable. A statistically significant excess number of cases for all sites combined was found in Mount Pleasant residents (age-adjusted incidence rate = 563.6 per 100,000 per year).^ A review of possible environmental risk factors in the area: hazardous waste disposal site, lignite deposits, and petrochemical and poultry industries are presented. A need for further epidemiological and environmental studies to identify etiological factors that could be responsible for the excess number of leukemia cases are recommended. For melanoma, a public health educational program to teach the population methods of protection from sun exposure is also suggested. ^

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF THE CENTER FOR EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES DEPRESSION SCALE IN THREE ETHNIC GROUPS

Epidemiologic studies of mental disorder have called attention to the need for identifying untreated cases and to the inadequacies of the instruments available for this purpose. Accurate case ascertainment devices are the basis of sound epidemiology. Without these, neither case classification nor analytic studies of risk factors is possible.^ The purpose of this research was to examine the reliability and validity of an instrument designed to measure depressive symptoms in community populations--the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D Scale). Two particular foci of the study were whether or not the scale had the same statistical structure across three ethnic groups and whether or not the magnitude and pattern of rates of symptoms for these groups were affected by one source of response error, that due to response tendencies. The effects of age and education on the pattern and magnitude of rates also were examined. In addition, the reliability and validity of the measures of response tendencies were assessed.^ The study population consisted of residents of Alameda County, California. A stratified sample of approximately 700 whites, blacks and Mexican-Americans was interviewed in the summer and fall of 1978.^ The results of the analysis indicated that the scale was reliable and measured a similar content domain across the three ethnic groups. The unadjusted sex- and ethnic-specific rates of depressive symptoms showed an ethnic pattern for both sexes: rates for whites were lowest, those for Mexican-Americans were highest, and those for blacks were intermediate. Measures of response tendencies--need for social approval, trait desirability, and acquiescence--affected the magnitude of the rates for most comparisons. Likewise, the pattern of rates changed somewhat from that originally observed. The one fairly consistent observation was that rates for Mexican-American women were higher than those for the other two female subgroups in most of the comparisons. These results must be considered in the context of the reliability and validity assessment of the measures of response tendencies which indicated the tenuousness of these measures.^ Age affected the ethnic pattern of rates for men in an inconsistent way; for women, Mexican-Americans continued to have higher rates than whites or blacks in all age categories. Education affected the magnitude of rates for women but not for men. For both men and women, Mexican-Americans had higher rates in all educational strata. Rates for women showed an inverse association with education while those for men did not. ^

Trastuzumab use and risk of congestive heart failure in older breast cancer patients

Trastuzumab is a humanized-monoclonal antibody, developed specifically for HER2-neu over-expressed breast cancer patients. Although highly effective and well tolerated, it was reported associated with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) in clinical trial settings (up to 27%). This leaves a gap where, Trastuzumab-related CHF rate in general population, especially older breast cancer patients with long term treatment of Trastuzumab remains unknown. This thesis examined the rates and risk factors associated with Trastuzumab-related CHF in a large population of older breast cancer patients. A retrospective cohort study using the existing Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Medicare linked de-identified database was performed. Breast cancer patients ≥ 66 years old, stage I-IV, diagnosed in 1998-2007, fully covered by Medicare but no HMO within 1-year before and after first diagnosis month, received 1st chemotherapy no earlier than 30 days prior to diagnosis were selected as study cohort. The primary outcome of this study is a diagnosis of CHF after starting chemotherapy but none CHF claims on or before cancer diagnosis date. ICD-9 and HCPCS codes were used to pool the claims for Trastuzumab use, chemotherapy, comorbidities and CHF claims. Statistical analysis including comparison of characteristics, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates of CHF rates for long term follow up, and Multivariable Cox regression model using Trastuzumab as a time-dependent variable were performed. Out of 17,684 selected cohort, 2,037 (12%) received Trastuzumab. Among them, 35% (714 out of 2037) were diagnosed with CHF, compared to 31% (4784 of 15647) of CHF rate in other chemotherapy recipients (p<.0001). After 10 years of follow-up, 65% of Trastuzumab users developed CHF, compared to 47% in their counterparts. After adjusting for patient demographic, tumor and clinical characteristics, older breast cancer patients who used Trastuzumab showed a significantly higher risk in developing CHF than other chemotherapy recipients (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.54 - 1.85). And this risk is increased along with the increment of age (p-value < .0001). Among Trastuzumab users, these covariates also significantly increased the risk of CHF: older age, stage IV, Non-Hispanic black race, unmarried, comorbidities, Anthracyclin use, Taxane use, and lower educational level. It is concluded that, Trastuzumab users in older breast cancer patients had 69% higher risk in developing CHF than non-Trastuzumab users, much higher than the 27% increase reported in younger clinical trial patients. Older age, Non-Hispanic black race, unmarried, comorbidity, combined use with Anthracycline or Taxane also significantly increase the risk of CHF development in older patients treated with Trastuzumab. ^

Impact of Liquid Swine Manure Application and Cover Crops on Ground Water Quality

The primary objective of this project was to determine the impact of appropriate rates of swine manure applications to corn and soybeans based on nitrogen and phosphorus requirements of crops, soil phosphorus accumulation, and the potential of nitrate and phosphorus leaching to groundwater. Another purpose of this long-term experimental study was to develop and recommend appropriate manure and nutrient management practices to producers to minimize the water contamination potential and enhance the use of swine manure as inorganic fertilizer. A third component of this study was to determine the potential effects of rye as a cover crop to reduce nitrate loss to shallow ground water.

Retreat of top cliff of Kurungnakh Island, Lena Delta, Siberia, Russia, 2010-2014, with links to shapefiles

Thawing-induced cliff top retreat in permafrost landscapes is mainly due to thermo-erosion. Ground-ice-rich permafrost landscapes are specifically vulnerable to thermo-erosion and may show high degradation rates. Within the HGF Alliance Remote Sensing and the FP7 PAGE21 permafrost programs we investigated how SAR and optical remote sensing can contribute to the monitoring of erosion rates of ice-rich cliffs in Arctic Siberia (Lena Delta, Russia). We produced two different vector products: i) Intra-annual cliff top retreat based on TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite data (2012-2014): High-temporal resolution time series of TSX satellite data allow the inter-annual and intra-annual monitoring of the upper cliff-line retreat also under bad weather conditions and continuous cloud coverage. This published SAR product contains the retreating upper cliff lines of a 1.5 km long part of eroding ice-rich coast of Kurungnakh Island in the central Lena Delta. The upper cliff line was mapped using a thresholding approach for images acquired in the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 for the months June (2013, 2014), July (2013, 2014), August (2012, 2013, 2014) and September (2013, 2014). The cliff top retreat vector product is called 'upper_cliff_TerraSAR-X'. While the 2014 cliff lines show a clear retreat of 2 to 3 m/month, the cliff top lines for 2012 and 2013 are not chronologically ordered. However, lines from the end of the season of a year are always close to the lines from the beginning of the next summer season, indicating low cliff retreat in winter. ii) 4-year cliff top retreat based on optical satellite data (2010-2014): Long-term cliff top retreat could be assessed with two high-spatial resolution optical satellite images (GeoEye-1, 2010-08-05 and Worldview-1, 2014-08-19). The cliff top retreat vector product is called 'upper_cliff_optical'. Results: The long-term cliff top retreat derived from optical satellite data are 35 m cliff retreat within 4 years. The higher-temporal resolution SAR data equivalently show long-term rates of 18 m within 2 years and nearly now degradation activities in winter but maximum erosion rates in summer months.The Intra-seasonal cliff top retreat lines from 2014 show a rate of 2 to 3 m per month.

Faecal pellet production of copepoda collected in water depth up to 30 meters in the eastern Mediterranean Sea in Oktober 2008 during SES_GR2

Mesozooplankton is collected by vertical tows within the Black sea water body mass layer in the NE Aegean, using a WP-2 200 µm net equipped with a large non-filtering cod-end (10 l). Macrozooplankton organisms are removed using a 2000 µm net. A few unsorted animals (approximately 100) are placed inside several glass beaker of 250 ml filled with GF/F or 0.2 µm Nucleopore filtered seawater and with a 100 µm net placed 1 cm above the beaker bottom. Beakers are then placed in an incubator at natural light and maintaining the in situ temperature. After 1 hour pellets are separated from animals and placed in separated flasks and preserved with formalin. Pellets are counted and measured using an inverted microscope. Animals are scanned and counted using an image analysis system. Carbon- Specific faecal pellet production is calculated from a) faecal pellet production, b) individual carbon: Animals are scanned and their body area is measured using an image analysis system. Body volume is then calculated as an ellipsoid using the major and minor axis of an ellipse of same area as the body. Individual carbon is calculated from a carbon- total body volume of organisms (relationship obtained for the Mediterranean Sea by Alcaraz et al. (2003) divided by the total number of individuals scanned and c) faecal pellet carbon: Faecal pellet length and width is measured using an inverted microscope. Faecal pellet volume is calculated from length and width assuming cylindrical shape. Conversion of faecal pellet volume to carbon is done using values obtained in the Mediterranean from: a) faecal pellet density 1,29 g cm**3 (or pg µm**3) from Komar et al. (1981); b) faecal pellet DW/WW=0,23 from Elder and Fowler (1977) and c) faecal pellet C%DW=25,5 Marty et al. (1994).

Effectiveness of medical abortion with mifepristone and buccal misoprostol through 59 gestational days

BACKGROUND: From 2001 to March 2006, Planned Parenthood Federation of America (Planned Parenthood) health centers throughout the United States provided medical abortions principally by a regimen of oral mifepristone, followed 24-48 h later by vaginal misoprostol. In late March 2006, analyses of serious uterine infections following medical abortions led Planned Parenthood to change the route of misoprostol administration and to employ additional measures to minimize subsequent serious uterine infections. In August 2006, we conducted an extensive audit of medical abortions with the new buccal misoprostol regimen so that patients could be given accurate information about the success rate of the new regimen. OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of the buccal medical abortion regimen and to examine correlates of its success during routine service delivery. METHODS: In 2006, audits were conducted in 10 large urban service points to estimate the success rates of the buccal regimen. Success was defined as medical abortion without vacuum aspiration. These audits also permitted estimates of success rates with oral misoprostol following mifepristone in a subset in which 98% of the subjects stemmed from two sites. RESULTS: The effectiveness of the buccal misoprostol-mifepristone regimen was 98.3% for women with gestational ages below 60 days. The oral misoprostol-mifepristone regimen, used by 278 women with a gestational age below 50 days, had a success rate of 96.8%. CONCLUSION: In conjunction with 200 mg of mifepristone, use of 800 mcg of buccal misoprostol up to 59 days of gestation is as effective as the use of 800 mcg of vaginal misoprostol up to 63 days of gestation.

Physical properties and accumulation rates in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

The European Programme for Ice Coring in Antarctica includes a comprehensive pre-site survey on the inland ice plateau of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. The German glaciological programme during the 1997/98 field season was carried out along a 1200 km traverse on Amundsenisen and involved sampling the snow cover in pits and by shallow firn cores. This paper focuses on the accumulation studies. The cores were dated by dielectric-profiling and continuous-flow analysis. Distinct volcanogenic peaks and seasonal signals in the profiles served to establish a depth time-scale. The eruptions of Krakatoa, Tambora, an unknown volcano, Kuwae and El Chichon are well-documented in the ice. Variations of the accumulation rates over different times were inferred from the depth time-scales. A composite record of accumulation rates for the last 200 years was produced by stacking 12 annually resolved records. According to this, accumulation rates decreased in the 19th century and increased in the 20th century. The recent values are by no means extraordinary, as they do not exceed the values at the beginning of the 19th century. Variations in accumulation rates are most probably linked to temperature variations indicated in d18O records from Amundsenisen.

Nitrification rates in the NW Mediterranean Sea

During spring, ammonium oxidation and nitrite oxidation rates were measured in the NW basin of the Mediterranean Sea, from mesotrophic sites (Ligurian Sea and Gulf of Lions) to oligotrophic sites (Balearic Islands). Nitrification rates (average values for 37 measurements) ranged from 72 to 144 nmol of N oxidised/l/d, except in the Rhône River plume area where the rates increased to 264-504 nmol/l/d because of the riverine inputs of nitrogen. Maximal rates were located around the peak of nitrite within the nitracline at about 40 to 60 m and just above the phosphacline. At 1 station, relatively high values of nitrification (50 to 130 nmol/l/d) were also measured deep in the water column (240 m). Day-to-day variations were measured demonstrating the response within a few hours to hydrological stress (wind-induced mixing of the water column) and showing the role of hydrological characteristics on the distribution of nitrification rates. Because of the homogenous temperature (13°C) in the Mediterranean Sea, the spatial (geographical and vertical) fluctuations of nitrifying rates were linked to the presence of substrate due to mineralisation processes and/or Rhône River inputs. We estimate the contribution of nitrate produced by nitrification to the N demand of phytoplankton to range from 16% at mesotrophic to 61% at oligotrophic stations.

Middle Miocene to recent sedimentological record of ODP sites 177-1088 and 177-1092

During Leg 177 of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP), well-preserved Middle Miocene to Pleistocene carbonate-rich sediment records were recovered on a north-south transect through the south-eastern Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean at Site 1088 on the Agulhas Ridge and Site 1092 on Meteor Rise. Both sites were dominated by the deposition of calcareous nannofossil oozes through the Miocene, indicating low biological productivity in warm to temperate surface waters. A continuous increase in the proportions of foraminifera since the latest Miocene (6.5 Ma) points to enhanced nutrient supply, possibly related to the global 'biogenic bloom' event across the Miocene-Pliocene boundary. Since the Late Pliocene, different styles of biological productivity developed between the sites. Enhanced deposition of biosiliceous constituents at the southern Site 1092, particularly in the Early Pleistocene, is consistent with the formation of the Circum-Antarctic Opal Belt since 2.5 Ma in a setting near the Polar Front, whereas carbonate deposition still prevailed at the northern Site 1088 situated near the Subtropical Front. Clay-mineral tracers of water-mass advection together with the pattern of sedimentation rates and hiatuses reflect distinct pulses in the development of regional ocean circulation between 14 and 12 Ma, around 8 Ma and since 2.8 Ma. These pulses can be related to Antarctic ice-sheet extension that mediates the production and flow of southern source water, and stepwise increases in North Atlantic Deep Water production that drives global conveyor circulation. At Site 1088, illite chemistry and silt/clay ratios of the terrigenous sediment fraction reflect the history of terrestrial climate in southern Africa, with humid conditions prior to the Early Late Miocene (9.7 Ma), followed by a dry episode until 7.7 Ma. The latest Miocene and Early Pliocene were characterized by a humid episode until modern aridity was established in the Late Pliocene between 4.0 and 2.8 Ma. These climate changes were related to the latitudinal migration of climate belts in response to tectonically caused reorganizations in atmospheric and ocean circulation.