Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Modelling the exothermic heat and the demand of cooling in paper and pulp industry biological wastewater treatment

This master thesis presents a study on the requisite cooling of an activated sludge process in paper and pulp industry. The energy consumption of paper and pulp industry and it’s wastewater treatment plant in particular is relatively high. It is therefore useful to understand the wastewater treatment process of such industries. The activated sludge process is a biological mechanism which degrades carbonaceous compounds that are present in waste. The modified activated sludge model constructed here aims to imitate the bio-kinetics of an activated sludge process. However, due to the complicated non-linear behavior of the biological process, modelling this system is laborious and intriguing. We attempt to find a system solution first using steady-state modelling of Activated Sludge Model number 1 (ASM1), approached by Euler’s method and an ordinary differential equation solver. Furthermore, an enthalpy study of paper and pulp industry’s vital pollutants was carried out and applied to revise the temperature shift over a period of time to formulate the operation of cooling water. This finding will lead to a forecast of the plant process execution in a cost-effective manner and management of effluent efficiency. The final stage of the thesis was achieved by optimizing the steady state of ASM1.

Offshoring and outsourcing under demand uncertainty -a supply chain management analysis

Outsourcing and offshoring or any combinations of these have not just become a popular phenomenon, but are viewed as one of the most important management strategies due to the new possibilities from globalization. They have been seen as a possibility to save costs and improve customer service. Executing offshoring and offshore outsourcing successfully can be more complex than initially expected. Potential cost savings resulting from of offshoring and offshore outsourcing are often based on lower manufacturing costs. However, these benefits might be conflicted by a more complex supply chain with service level challenges that can respectively increase costs. Therefore analyzing the total cost effects of offshoring and outsourcing is necessary. The aim of this Master´s Thesis was to to construct a total cost model using academic literature to calculate the total costs and analyze the reasonability of offshoring and offshore outsourcing production of a case company compared to insourcing production. The research data was mainly quantitative and collected mainly from the case company past sales and production records. In addition management level interviews from the case company were conducted. The information from these interviews was used for the qualification of the necessary quantitative data and adding supportive information that could not be gathered from the quantitative data. Both data collection and analysis were guided by a theoretical frame of reference that was based on academic literature concerning offshoring and outsourcing, statistical calculation of demand and total costs. The results confirm the theories that offshoring and offshore outsourcing would reduce total costs as both offshoring and offshore outsourcing options result in lower total annual costs than insourcing mainly due to lower manufacturing costs. However, increased demand uncertainty would make the alternative of offshore outsourcing more risky and difficult to manage. Therefore when assessing the overall impact of the alternatives, offshoring is the most preferable option. As the main cost savings in offshore outsourcing came from lower manufacturing costs, more specifically labour costs, the logistics costs in this case company did not have an essential effect in total costs. The management should therefore pay attention initially to manufacturing costs and then logistics costs when choosing the best production sourcing option for the company.

Mr Judge qui a demandé la libération de Mr [Mac Swiney, lord-maire de] Cork : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 60750

(A) Photoregulation of DNA Functions by Cyclic Azobenzene-tethered Oligonucleotides (B) Site-specific Fluorescent Labeling of DNA using Inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder Reaction between trans-Cyclooctene Derivatives and BODIPY-Tetrazine Adducts

(A) Most azobenzene-based photoswitches require UV light for photoisomerization, which limit their applications in biological systems due to possible photodamage. Cyclic azobenzene derivatives, on the other hand, can undergo cis-trans isomerization when exposed to visible light. A shortened synthetic scheme was developed for the preparation of a building block containing cyclic azobenzene and D-threoninol (cAB-Thr). trans-Cyclic azobenzene was found to thermally isomerize back to the cis-form in a temperature-dependent manner. cAB-Thr was transformed into the corresponding phosphoramidite and subsequently incorporated into oligonucleotides by solid phase synthesis. Melting temperature measurement suggested that incorporation of cis-cAB into oligonucleotides destabilizes DNA duplexes, these findings corroborate with circular dichroism measurement. Finally, Fluorescent Energy Resonance Transfer experiments indicated that trans-cAB can be accommodated in DNA duplexes. (B) Inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder reactions (IEDDA) between trans-olefins and tetrazines provide a powerful alternative to existing ligation chemistries due to its fast reaction rate, bioorthogonality and mutual orthogonality with other click reactions. In this project, an attempt was pursued to synthesize trans-cyclooctene building blocks for oligonucleotide labeling by reacting with BODIPY-tetrazine. Rel-(1R-4E-pR)-cyclooct-4-enol and rel-(1R,8S,9S,4E)-Bicyclo[6.1.0]non-4-ene-9-ylmethanol were synthesized and then transformed into the corresponding propargyl ether. Subsequent Sonogashira reactions between these propargylated compounds with DMT-protected 5-iododeoxyuridine failed to give the desired products. Finally a methodology was pursued for the synthesis of BODIPY-tetrazine conjugates that will be used in future IEDDA reactions with trans-cyclooctene modified oligonucleotides.

Clipping from a Town Council meeting at which estimates of the costs of Railway Line no. 1 and Line no. 2 were submitted by the office of Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway

Clipping from a Town Council meeting at which estimates of the costs of Railway Line no. 1 and Line no. 2 were submitted by the office of Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway. The estimate was submitted by S.D. Woodruff and George Rykert, president. There is also a disclaimer in which Calvin Phelps claims to have resigned as director of the Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway when he discovered that the company had no intention to adhere to the original plan for building and running the road, Aug. 1854.

Chart of Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway from St. Catharines to Thorold estimates

Chart of Port Dalhousie and Thorold Railway from St. Catharines to Thorold estimates. This document is slightly burnt and torn. Text is slightly affected. It is signed by S.D. Woodruff, Dec. 27, 1856.

Abstract of estimates

Abstract of estimates, June 13, 1856.

Report by Jacob Misner on setting contracts for deepening and clearing ditches and estimates of quantities and costs of marsh drainage

Report by Jacob Misner on setting contracts for deepening and clearing ditches and estimates of quantities and costs of marsh drainage (3 ½ pages, handwritten). This is marked as a copy, July 14, 1855.

Estimates for marsh drainage sent to Dexter Deverardo from S.D. Woodruff for Alexander Cook and Andrew Mains

Estimates for marsh drainage sent to Dexter Deverardo from S.D. Woodruff for Alexander Cook and Andrew Mains, Nov. 30, 1855.