Mapped distribution of intertidal habitats in Australia between 1999 and 2014, link to data in ArcGIS format (29 MB)

Shorebirds have declined severely across the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Many species rely on intertidal habitats for foraging, yet the distribution and conservation status of these habitats across Australia remain poorly understood. Here, we utilised freely available satellite imagery to produce the first map of intertidal habitats across Australia. We estimated a minimum intertidal area of 9856 km**2, with Queensland and Western Australia supporting the largest areas. Thirty-nine percent of intertidal habitats were protected in Australia, with some primarily within marine protected areas (e.g. Queensland) and others within terrestrial protected areas (e.g. Victoria). In fact, three percent of all intertidal habitats were protected both by both marine and terrestrial protected areas. To achieve conservation targets, protected area boundaries must align more accurately with intertidal habitats. Shorebirds use intertidal areas to forage and supratidal areas to roost, so a coordinated management approach is required to account for movement of birds between terrestrial and marine habitats. Ultimately, shorebird declines are occurring despite high levels of habitat protection in Australia. There is a need for a concerted effort both nationally and internationally to map and understand how intertidal habitats are changing, and how habitat conservation can be implemented more effectively.

Colony-specific calcification and mortality under ocean acidification in the branching coral Montipora digitata

Ocean acidification (OA) threatens calcifying marine organisms including reef-building corals. In this study, we examined the OA responses of individual colonies of the branching scleractinian coral Montipora digitata. We exposed nubbins of unique colonies (n = 15) to ambient or elevated pCO2 under natural light and temperature regimes for 110 days. Although elevated pCO2 exposure on average reduced calcification, individual colonies showed unique responses ranging from declines in positive calcification to negative calcification (decalcification) to no change. Similarly, mortality was greater on average in elevated pCO2, but also showed colony-specific patterns. High variation in colony responses suggests the possibility that ongoing OA may lead to natural selection of OA-tolerant colonies within a coral population.

(Table S1) Age determination of sediment cores SK99_17 and MD76-131

Productivity in the Arabian Sea is one of the highest in the world. It is controlled by seasonally reversing monsoonal wind-driven upwelling of nutrient-rich deeper waters which fuel phytoplankton growth. The detailed history of upwelling-induced productivity in the eastern Arabian Sea is unknown. Here we present paleoproductivity records from a composite sediment core at the millennial scale during the last 80 kyr B.P. These records are based on relative abundance counts of planktonic foraminifera and organic carbon contents, which are shown to mainly vary in concert. The eastern Arabian Sea upwelling-induced productivity was higher in the glacial period than in the Holocene, but it fell repeatedly on millennial timescales. These productivity declines occurred during cold events in the North Atlantic region, with the most pronounced changes prevailing during the Heinrich events. Hence, seasonal monsoon winds that drive upwelling-induced productivity in the east were weak when the North Atlantic was cold. These weak winds resulted in stratification of the water column, comparable to today's Arabian Sea stratification in the intermonsoonal period. Combining the new eastern with published western Arabian Sea results shows that the entire biological factory was severely diminished during the North Atlantic Heinrich events, and the seasonal productivity change in the Arabian Sea monsoon system was reduced with year-round low productivity.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.

The Abundance and Behavioral Ecology of Cape Cod Gray Seals Under Predation Risk From White Sharks

The ultimate goal of wildlife recovery is abundance growth of a species, though it must also involve the reestablishment of the species’ ecological role within ecosystems frequently modified by humans. Reestablishment and subsequent recovery may depend on the species’ degree of adaptive behavior as well as the duration of their functional absence and the extent of ecosystem alteration. In cases of long extirpations or extensive alteration, successful reestablishment may entail adjusting foraging behavior, targeting new prey species, and encountering unfamiliar predatory or competitive regimes. Recovering species must also increasingly tolerate heightened anthropogenic presence, particularly within densely inhabited coastal zones. In recent decades, gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) recovered from exploitation, depletion, and partial extirpation in the Northwest Atlantic. On Cape Cod, MA, USA, gray seals have reestablished growing breeding colonies and seasonally interact with migratory white sharks (Carcarodon carcharias). Though well-studied in portions of their range due to concerns over piscivorous impacts on valuable groundfish, there are broad knowledge gaps regarding their ecological role to US marine ecosystems. Furthermore, there are few studies that explicitly analyze gray seal behavior under direct risk of documented shark predation.

In this dissertation, I apply a behavioral and movement ecology approach to telemetry data to understand gray seal abundance and activity patterns along the coast of Cape Cod. This coastal focus complements extensive research documenting and describing offshore movement and foraging behavior and allows me to address questions about movement decisions and risk allocation. Using beach counts of seals visible in satellite imagery, I estimate the total regional abundance of gray seals using correction factors from haul out behavior and demonstrate a sizeable prey base of gray seals locally. Analyzing intra-annual space use patterns, I document small, concentrated home ranges utilizing nearshore habitats that rapidly expand with shifting activity budgets to target disperse offshore habitats following seasonal declines in white sharks. During the season of dense shark presence, seals conducted abbreviated nocturnal foraging trips structured temporally around divergent use of crepuscular periods. The timing of coastal behavior with different levels of twilight indicate risk allocation patterns with diel cycles of empirical white shark activity. The emergence of risk allocation to explain unique behavioral and spatial patterns observed in these gray seals points to the importance of the restored predator-prey dynamic in gray seal behavior along Cape Cod.

Optimizing the Correction of Memory Errors

People are always at risk of making errors when they attempt to retrieve information from memory. An important question is how to create the optimal learning conditions so that, over time, the correct information is learned and the number of mistakes declines. Feedback is a powerful tool, both for reinforcing new learning and correcting memory errors. In 5 experiments, I sought to understand the best procedures for administering feedback during learning. First, I evaluated the popular recommendation that feedback is most effective when given immediately, and I showed that this recommendation does not always hold when correcting errors made with educational materials in the classroom. Second, I asked whether immediate feedback is more effective in a particular case—when correcting false memories, or strongly-held errors that may be difficult to notice even when the learner is confronted with the feedback message. Third, I examined whether varying levels of learner motivation might help to explain cross-experimental variability in feedback timing effects: Are unmotivated learners less likely to benefit from corrective feedback, especially when it is administered at a delay? Overall, the results revealed that there is no best “one-size-fits-all” recommendation for administering feedback; the optimal procedure depends on various characteristics of learners and their errors. As a package, the data are consistent with the spacing hypothesis of feedback timing, although this theoretical account does not successfully explain all of the data in the larger literature.

Three Essays on the Effects of Donor Supplied Contraceptives on Fertility, Usage, and Attitudes

After the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning, there have been major strides in advancing the family planning agenda for low and middle-income countries worldwide. Much of the existing infrastructure and funding for family planning access is in the form of supplying free contraceptives to countries. While the average yearly value of donations since 2000 was over 170 million dollars for contraceptives procured for developing countries, an ongoing debate in the empirical literature is whether increases in contraceptive access and supply drive declines in fertility (UNFPA 2014).

This dissertation explores the fertility and behavioral effects of an increase in contraceptive supply donated to Zambia. Zambia, a high-fertility developing country, receives over 80 percent of its contraceptives from multilateral donors and aid agencies. Most contraceptives are donated and provided to women for free at government clinics (DELIVER 2015). I chose Zambia as a case study to measure the relationship between contraceptive supply and fertility because of two donor-driven events that led to an increase in both the quantity and frequency of contraceptives starting in 2008 (UNFPA 2014). Donations increased because donors and the Zambian government started a systematic method of forecasting contraceptive need on December 2007, and the Mexico City Policy was lifted in January 2009.

In Chapter 1, I investigate whether a large change in quantity and frequency of donated contraceptives affected fertility, using available data on contraceptive donations to Zambia, and birth records from the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys. I use a difference-in-difference framework to estimate the fertility effects of a supply chain improvement program that started in 2011, and was designed to ensure more regularity of contraceptive supply. The increase in total contraceptive supply after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded is associated with a 12 percent reduction in fertility relative to the before period, after controlling for demographic characteristics and time controls. There is evidence that a supply chain improvement program led to significant fertility declines for regions that received the program after the Mexico City Policy was rescinded.

In Chapter 2, I explore the effects of the large increase in donated contraceptives on modern contraceptive uptake. According to the 2007 and 2013 Demographic and Health Surveys, there was a dramatic increase in current use of injectables, implants, and IUDs. Simultaneously, declines occurred in usage of condoms, lactational amenorrhea method (LAM), and traditional methods. In this chapter, I estimate the effect of the increase in donations on uptake, composition of contraceptive usage, and usage of methods based on distance to contraceptive access points. The results show the post-2007 period is associated with an increase in usage of injectables and the pill among women living further away from access points.

In Chapter 3, I explore attitudes towards the contraceptive supply system, and identify areas for improvement, based on qualitative interviews with 14 experts and 61 Zambian users and non-users of contraceptives. The interviews uncover systemic barriers that prevent women from consistently accessing methods, and individual barriers that exacerbate the deficiencies in supply chain procedures. I find that 39 out of 61 women interviewed, both users and non-users, had personal experiences with stock out. The qualitative results suggest that the increase in contraceptives brought to the country after 2007 may have not contributed to as large of a decline in fertility because of bottlenecks in the supply chain, and problems in maintaining stock levels at clinics. I end the chapter with a series of four recommendations for improvements in the supply chain going forward, in light of recent commitments by the Zambian government during the 2012 London Summit on Family Planning.

Wear and its effects on dental topography measures in howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata).

OBJECTIVES: Three dental topography measurements: Dirichlet Normal Energy (DNE), Relief Index (RFI), and Orientation Patch Count Rotated (OPCR) are examined for their interaction with measures of wear, within and between upper and lower molars in Alouatta palliata. Potential inferences of the "dental sculpting" phenomenon are explored. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifteen occluding pairs of howling monkey first molars (15 upper, 15 lower) opportunistically collected from La Pacifica, Costa Rica, were selected to sample wear stages ranging from unworn to heavily worn as measured by the Dentine Exposure Ratio (DER). DNE, RFI, and OPCR were measured from three-dimensional surface reconstructions (PLY files) derived from high-resolution CT scans. Relationships among the variables were tested with regression analyses. RESULTS: Upper molars have more cutting edges, exhibiting significantly higher DNE, but have significantly lower RFI values. However, the relationships among the measures are concordant across both sets of molars. DER and EDJL are curvilinearly related. DER is positively correlated with DNE, negatively correlated with RFI, and uncorrelated with OPCR. EDJL is not correlated with DNE, or RFI, but is positively correlated with OPCR among lower molars only. DISCUSSION: The relationships among these metrics suggest that howling monkey teeth adaptively engage macrowear. DNE increases with wear in this sample presumably improving food breakdown. RFI is initially high but declines with wear, suggesting that the initially high RFI safeguards against dental senescence. OPCR values in howling monkey teeth do not show a clear relationship with wear changes.

Predicting Forest Responses to Changing Environmental Conditions

Forests change with changes in their environment based on the physiological responses of individual trees. These short-term reactions have cumulative impacts on long-term demographic performance. For a tree in a forest community, success depends on biomass growth to capture above- and belowground resources and reproductive output to establish future generations. Here we examine aspects of how forests respond to changes in moisture and light availability and how these responses are related to tree demography and physiology.

First we address the long-term pattern of tree decline before death and its connection with drought. Increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity could have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. We use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from southeastern U.S. forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multiyear declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multiyear drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 years. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with species drought tolerance.

Next, we investigate differences among tree species in reproductive output relative to biomass growth with changes in light availability. Previous studies reach conflicting conclusions about the constraints on reproductive allocation relative to growth and how they vary through time, across species, and between environments. We test the hypothesis that canopy exposure to light, a critical resource, limits reproductive allocation by comparing long-term relationships between reproduction and growth for trees from 21 species in forests throughout the southeastern U.S. We found that species had divergent responses to light availability, with shade-intolerant species experiencing an alleviation of trade-offs between growth and reproduction at high light. Shade-tolerant species showed no changes in reproductive output across light environments.

Given that the above patterns depend on the maintenance of transpiration, we next developed an approach for predicting whole-tree water use from sap flux observations. Accurately scaling these observations to tree- or stand-levels requires accounting for variation in sap flux between wood types and with depth into the tree. We compared different models with sap flux data to test the hypotheses that radial sap flux profiles differ by wood type and tree size. We show that radial variation in sap flux is dependent on wood type but independent of tree size for a range of temperate trees. The best-fitting model predicted out-of-sample sap flux observations and independent estimates of sapwood area with small errors, suggesting robustness in new settings. We outline a method for predicting whole-tree water use with this model and include computer code for simple implementation in other studies.

Finally, we estimated tree water balances during drought with a statistical time-series analysis. Moisture limitation in forest stands comes predominantly from water use by the trees themselves, a drought-stand feedback. We show that drought impacts on tree fitness and forest composition can be predicted by tracking the moisture reservoir available to each tree in a mass balance. We apply this model to multiple seasonal droughts in a temperate forest with measurements of tree water use to demonstrate how species and size differences modulate moisture availability across landscapes. As trees deplete their soil moisture reservoir during droughts, a transpiration deficit develops, leading to reduced biomass growth and reproductive output.

This dissertation draws connections between the physiological condition of individual trees and their behavior in crowded, diverse, and continually-changing forest stands. The analyses take advantage of growing data sets on both the physiology and demography of trees as well as novel statistical techniques that allow us to link these observations to realistic quantitative models. The results can be used to scale up tree measurements to entire stands and address questions about the future composition of forests and the land’s balance of water and carbon.

Microstructure Characteristics of U.S. Futures Markets

Prior finance literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of microstructure characteristics of U.S. futures markets due to the lack of data availability. Utilizing a unique data set for five different futures contract this dissertation fills this gap in the finance literature. In three essays price discovery, resiliency and the components of bid-ask spreads in electronic futures markets are examined. In order to provide comprehensive and robust analysis, both moderately volatile pre-crisis and volatile crisis periods are included in the analysis. The first essay entitled “Price Discovery and Liquidity Characteristics for U.S. Electronic Futures and ETF Markets” explores the price discovery process in U.S. futures and ETF markets. Hasbrouck’s information share method is applied to futures and ETF instruments. The information share results show that futures markets dominate the price discovery process. The results on the factors that affect the price discovery process show that when volatility increases, the price leadership of futures markets declines. Furthermore, when the relative size of bid-ask spread in one market increases, its information share decreases. The second essay, entitled “The Resiliency of Large Trades for U.S. Electronic Futures Markets,“ examines the effects of large trades in futures markets. How quickly prices and liquidity recovers after large trades is an important characteristic of financial markets. The price effects of large trades are greater during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Furthermore, relative to the pre-crisis period, during the crisis period it takes more trades until liquidity returns to the pre-block trade levels. The third essay, entitled “Components of Quoted Bid-Ask Spreads in U.S. Electronic Futures Markets,” investigates the bid-ask spread components in futures market. The components of bid-ask spreads is one of the most important subjects of microstructure studies. Utilizing Huang and Stoll’s (1997) method the third essay of this dissertation provides the first analysis of the components of quoted bid-ask spreads in U.S. electronic futures markets. The results show that order processing cost is the largest component of bid-ask spreads, followed by inventory holding costs. During the crisis period market makers increase bid-ask spreads due to increasing inventory holding and adverse selection risks.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, tissue-skeleton interface and calcification in reef corals in a laboratory experiment

Insight into the response of reef corals and other major marine calcifiers to ocean acidification is limited by a lack of knowledge about how seawater pH and carbonate chemistry impact the physiological processes that drive biomineralization. Ocean acidification is proposed to reduce calcification rates in corals by causing declines in internal pH at the calcifying tissue-skeleton interface where biomineralization takes place. Here, we performed an in vivo study on how partial-pressure CO(2)-driven seawater acidification impacts intracellular pH in coral calcifying cells and extracellular pH in the fluid at the tissue-skeleton interface [subcalicoblastic medium (SCM)] in the coral Stylophora pistillata. We also measured calcification in corals grown under the same conditions of seawater acidification by measuring lateral growth of colonies and growth of aragonite crystals under the calcifying tissue. Our findings confirm that seawater acidification decreases pH of the SCM, but this decrease is gradual relative to the surrounding seawater, leading to an increasing pH gradient between the SCM and seawater. Reductions in calcification rate, both at the level of crystals and whole colonies, were only observed in our lowest pH treatment when pH was significantly depressed in the calcifying cells in addition to the SCM. Overall, our findings suggest that reef corals may mitigate the effects of seawater acidification by regulating pH in the SCM, but they also highlight the role of calcifying cell pH homeostasis in determining the response of reef corals to changes in external seawater pH and carbonate chemistry.

Physiological and ecological variables measured at the high and low pCO2 reef sections

Experiments have shown that ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations has deleterious effects on the performance of many marine organisms. However, few empirical or modelling studies have addressed the long-term consequences of ocean acidification for marine ecosystems. Here we show that as pH declines from 8.1 to 7.8 (the change expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from 390 to 750 ppm, consistent with some scenarios for the end of this century) some organisms benefit, but many more lose out. We investigated coral reefs, seagrasses and sediments that are acclimatized to low pH at three cool and shallow volcanic carbon dioxide seeps in Papua New Guinea. At reduced pH, we observed reductions in coral diversity, recruitment and abundances of structurally complex framework builders, and shifts in competitive interactions between taxa. However, coral cover remained constant between pH 8.1 and ~7.8, because massive Porites corals established dominance over structural corals, despite low rates of calcification. Reef development ceased below pH 7.7. Our empirical data from this unique field setting confirm model predictions that ocean acidification, together with temperature stress, will probably lead to severely reduced diversity, structural complexity and resilience of Indo-Pacific coral reefs within this century.

Ocean acidification slows nitrogen fixation and growth in the dominant diazotroph Trichodesmium under low-iron conditions

Dissolution of anthropogenic CO(2) increases the partial pressure of CO(2) (pCO(2)) and decreases the pH of seawater. The rate of Fe uptake by the dominant N(2)-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium declines as pH decreases in metal-buffered medium. The slower Fe-uptake rate at low pH results from changes in Fe chemistry and not from a physiological response of the organism. Contrary to previous observations in nutrient-replete media, increasing pCO(2)/decreasing pH causes a decrease in the rates of N(2) fixation and growth in Trichodesmium under low-Fe conditions. This result was obtained even though the bioavailability of Fe was maintained at a constant level by increasing the total Fe concentration at low pH. Short-term experiments in which pCO(2) and pH were varied independently showed that the decrease in N(2) fixation is caused by decreasing pH rather than by increasing pCO(2) and corresponds to a lower efficiency of the nitrogenase enzyme. To compensate partially for the loss of N(2) fixation efficiency at low pH, Trichodesmium synthesizes additional nitrogenase. This increase comes partly at the cost of down-regulation of Fe-containing photosynthetic proteins. Our results show that although increasing pCO(2) often is beneficial to photosynthetic marine organisms, the concurrent decreasing pH can affect primary producers negatively. Such negative effects can occur both through chemical mechanisms, such as the bioavailability of key nutrients like Fe, and through biological mechanisms, as shown by the decrease in N(2) fixation in Fe-limited Trichodesmium.

Benthic foraminifera groups of ODP Site 162-982

The pulsed decline and eventual extinction of 51 species of elongate, cylindrical deep-sea benthic foraminifera (Stilostomellidae, Pleurostomellidae, and some Nodosariidae) occurred at intermediate water depths (1145-2168 m, Sites 980 and 982) in the northern North Atlantic during the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT, 1.2-0.6 Ma). In the early Pleistocene, prior to their disappearance, these species comprised up to 20% of the total abundance of the benthic foraminiferal assemblage at 2168 m, but up to only 2% at 1145 m. The MPT extinction of 51 species represents ?20% of the total benthic foraminiferal diversity at bathyal depths in the North Atlantic (excluding the myriad of small unilocular forms). The extinction rate during the MPT was approximately 10 species per 0.1 myr, being one or two orders of magnitude greater than normal background turnover rates of deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Comparison of the precise timings of declines and disappearances (= highest occurrences) of each species shows that they were often diachronous between the two depths. The last of these species to disappear in the North Atlantic was Pleurostomella alternans at ~0.679 and ~0.694 Ma in Sites 980 and 982, respectively, which is in good agreement with the previously documented global "Stilostomella extinction" datum within the period 0.7-0.58 Ma. Comparison with similar studies in intermediate depth waters in the Southwest Pacific Gateway indicates that ~61% of the extinct species were common to both regions, and that although the pattern of pulsed decline was similar, the precise order and timing of the extinction of individual species were mostly different on opposite sides of the world. Previous studies have indicated that this extinct group of elongate, cylindrical foraminifera lived infaunally and had their greatest abundances in poorly ventilated, lower oxygen environments. This is supported by our study where there is a strong positive correlation (r = ~+ 0.8) between the flux of the extinction group and low-oxygen/high organic input species (such as Uvigerina, Bulimina and Bolivina) during the MPT, suggesting a close relationship with lower oxygen levels and high food supply to the sea floor. The absolute abundance, flux, and number of the extinction group of species show a progressive withdrawal pattern with major decreases occurring in cold periods with high d13C values. This might be related to increasing chemical ventilation of glacial intermediate water.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and settlement of a spawning coral on three common species of crustose coralline algae

Concern about the impacts of ocean acidification (OA) on ecosystem function has prompted many studies to focus on larval recruitment, demonstrating declines in settlement and early growth at elevated CO2 concentrations. Since larval settlement is often driven by particular cues governed by crustose coralline algae (CCA), it is important to determine whether OA reduces larval recruitment with specific CCA and the generality of any effects. We tested the effect of elevated CO2 on the survival and settlement of larvae from the common spawning coral Acropora selago with 3 ecologically important species of CCA, Porolithon onkodes, Sporolithon sp., and Titanoderma sp. After 3 d in no-choice laboratory assays at 447, 705, and 1214 µatm pCO2, the rates of coral settlement declined as pCO2 increased with all CCA taxa. The magnitude of the effect was highest with Titanoderma sp., decreasing by 87% from the ambient to highest CO2 treatment. In general, there were high rates of larval mortality, which were greater with the P. onkodes and Sporolithon sp. treatments (~80%) compared to the Titanoderma sp. treatment (65%). There was an increase in larval mortality as pCO2 increased, but this was variable among the CCA species. It appears that OA reduces coral settlement by rapidly altering the chemical cues associated with the CCA thalli and microbial community, and potentially by directly affecting larval viability.