Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU-15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO2 emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO2 emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO2 emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO2 emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ?weighted? decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Smoothing of PV power fluctuations by geographical dispersion

The quality and the reliability of the power generated by large grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants are negatively affected by the source characteristic variability. This paper deals with the smoothing of power fluctuations because of geographical dispersion of PV systems. The fluctuation frequency and the maximum fluctuation registered at a PV plant ensemble are analyzed to study these effects. We propose an empirical expression to compare the fluctuation attenuation because of both the size and the number of PV plants grouped. The convolution of single PV plants frequency distribution functions has turned out to be a successful tool to statistically describe the behavior of an ensemble of PV plants and determine their maximum output fluctuation. Our work is based on experimental 1-s data collected throughout 2009 from seven PV plants, 20 MWp in total, separated between 6 and 360 km.

Geographical structuring in the mtDNA of Italians.

Geographical patterns of mtDNA variation were studied in 12 Italian samples (1072 individuals) by two different spatial autocorrelation methods. Separate analyses of the frequencies of 12 restriction morphs show North-South clines, differences between Sardinia and the mainland populations, and the effects of isolation by distance. A recently developed autocorrelation statistic summarizing molecular similarity at all sites (AIDA; autocorrelation index for DNA analysis) confirms the presence of a clinical pattern; differences between random pairs of haplotypes tend to increase with their geographical distance. The partition of gene diversity, however, reveals that most variability occurs within populations, whereas differences between populations are minor (GST = 0.057). When the data from the 12 samples are pooled, two descriptors of genetic variability (number of polymorphic sites and average sequence difference between pairs of individuals) do not behave as expected under neutrality. The presence of clinal patterns, Tajima's tests, and a simulation experiment agree in suggesting that population sizes increased rapidly in Italy and Sicily but not necessarily so in Sardinia. The distribution of pairwise sequence differences in the Italian peninsula (excluding Sardinia) permits a tentative location of the demographic increase between 8000 and 20,500 years ago. These dates are consistent with archaeological estimates of two distinct expansion processes, occurring, respectively, in the Neolithic and after the last glacial maximum in the Paleolithic. Conversely, there is no genetic evidence that such processes have had a major impact on the Sardinian population.

Revisão taxonômica e filogenia do gênero Megalobrachium Stimpson, 1858 (Crustacea: Decapoda: Anomura: Porcellanidae)

O presente trabalho trata do gênero de porcelanídeos Megalolobrachium Stimpson, 1858 e está organizado em três partes: (1) uma revisão taxonômica das espécies atualmente atribuídas a Megalobrachium Stimpson, 1858; (2) uma revisão da diversidade morfológica do gênero em um contexto maior dentro de Porcellanidae; e (3) uma análise cladística a partir de dados morfológicos com o intuito de testar o monofiletismo de Megalobrachium e propor a primeira hipótese filogenética para o gênero. A revisão taxonômica se baseou no estudo de material abundante de diferentes localidades do Pacífico oriental e Atlântico ocidental. Uma nova espécie de Megalobrachium é descrita com base no material das costas pacíficas do Panamá e Colômbia, totalizando 13 espécies em Megalobrachium. Para a análise filogenética, foram obtidos 151 caracteres; o grupo-externo foi composto por quatro espécies de três gêneros: Pachycheles Stimpson, 1858, Pisidia Leach, 1820, e Porcellana Lamarck, 1801. Uma única árvore (314 passos; IC: 64; IR: 80) foi obtida, com dois clados. O primeiro clado inclui espécies com lobos da fronte marcadamente flexionados, flagelo da antena curto, com artículos longos, patas ambulatórias curtas e robustas, abdome subtriangular em machos, pleópodo feminino iv com três segmentos, e urópodos curtos. O segundo clado contém espécies com lobos da fronte não flexionados, flagelo da antena longo, com artículos curtos, patas ambulatórias longas e delgadas, abdome sub-retangular, pleópodo feminino iv com dois segmentos, urópodos longos. O primeiro clado corresponde a Porcellanopsis Rathbun, 1910 (espécie-tipo P. festae (Nobili, 1901)), previamente tratado como sinônimo de Megalobrachium. Contudo, a combinação de diferenças morfológicas entre Megalobrachium e Porcellanopsis justifica a revalidação de Porcellanopsis. Três espécies foram erroneamente registradas no Pacífico oriental (M. mortenseni Haig, 1962, P. rosea (Rathbun, 1900) e P. soriata (Say, 1818)); essas espécies são exclusivamente distribuídas no Atlântico ocidental.

Morfologia, taxonomia e análise cladística da tribo Kingsleyini (Crustacea: Decapoda: Pseudothelphusidae)

Kingsleyini corresponde a uma das cinco tribos de Pseudothelphusidae, grupo exclusivamente americano de caranguejos de água doce. Atualmente a tribo inclui 59 espécies agrupadas em 13 gêneros, com distribuição associada aos rios, riachos e igarapés das bacias do Amazonas e do Orinoco. Desde a criação de Kingsleyini o aumento de novos táxons atribuídos a esta tribo não tem sido acompanhado por estudos cladísticos. No presente trabalho é realizada a análise cladística de Kingsleyini, acompanhada de uma revisão morfológica e taxonômica do grupo. Com este propósito, foram estudados espécimes de 60 espécies representantes das cinco tribos e duas subfamílias inclusas em Pseudothelphusidae. O material estudado se encontra depositado nas coleções carcinológicas de seis instituições e inclui os tipos nominais de 29 espécies. Na revisão morfológica foram descritas e ilustradas estruturas somáticas e sexuais da morfologia externa do grupo de estudo. Os estudos morfológicos foram auxiliados por técnicas de Microscopia Electrônica de Varredura (MEV) e cortes histológicos. A partir destas observações foram propostas modificações na terminologia utilizada para denominar as estruturas do primeiro apêndice sexual masculino (primeiro gonópodo) em Kingsleyini. A parte taxonômica deste trabalho inclui chaves de identificação, mapas de distribuição, listas sinonímicas e a descrição e ilustração do primeiro apêndice sexual masculino para a grande maioria das espécies examinadas, assim como a diagnose dos gêneros considerados monofiléticos. A análise filogenética foi realizada a partir de 92 caracteres obtidos de 57 táxons terminais: 49 terminais do grupo interno (Kingsleyini) e oito do grupo-externo (representantes dos demais Pseudothelphusidae). Como resultado da análise cladística foram obtidas seis hipóteses filogenéticas igualmente parcimoniosas: todas elas apoiam o monofiletismo de Kingsleyini e a exclusão do gênero Spirocarcinus da tribo. O monofiletismo dos gêneros Fredius, Kingsleya, Eudaniela e Rodriguezus também encontra-se sustentado em todas as hipóteses filogenéticas obtidas, enquanto que os gêneros Microthelphusa, Neopseudothelphusa, Orthothelphusa e Brasiliothelphusa revelaram-se parafiléticos.

Molecules, wing pattern and distribution: an approach to species delimitation in the "loxurina group" (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae: Penaincisalia)

The wide range of morphological variations in the “loxurina group” makes taxa identification difficult, and despite several reviews, serious taxonomical confusion remains. We make use of DNA data in conjunction with morphological appearance and available information on species distribution to delimit the boundaries of the “loxurina” group species previously established based on morphology. A fragment of 635 base pairs within the mtDNA gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI) was analysed for seven species of the “loxurina group”. Phylogenetic relationships among the included taxa were inferred using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods. Penaincisalia sigsiga (Bálint et al), P. cillutincarae (Draudt), P. atymna (Hewitson) and P. loxurina (C. Felder & R. Felder) were easily delimited as the morphological, geographic and molecular data were congruent. Penaincisalia ludovica (Bálint & Wojtusiak) and P. loxurina astillero (Johnson) represent the same entity and constitute a sub-species of P. loxurina. However, incongruence among morphological, genetic, and geographic data is shown in P. chachapoya (Bálint & Wojtusiak) and P. tegulina (Bálint et al). Our results highlight that an integrative approach is needed to clarify the taxonomy of these neotropical taxa, but more genetic and geographical studies are still required.

Analyse de la distribution d'Escherichia coli, utilisée comme un marqueur microbiologique, dans un réseau de production porcin

La présence d’Escherichia coli pathogènes en élevages porcins entraine des retards de croissance et la mortalité. La transmission des E. coli pathogènes entre les élevages et l'abattoir d’un même réseau de production n'est pas bien décrite. La détection des gènes de virulence des E. coli pathogènes pourrait permettre d’identifier un marqueur de contamination dans le réseau. L’objectif de cette étude a été d’identifier un marqueur de contamination E. coli dans un réseau de production porcine défini afin de décrire certains modes de transmission des E. coli pathogènes. Pour ce faire, une région géographique comprenant 10 fermes d’engraissement, un abattoir et un réseau de transport a été sélectionnée. Trois lots de production consécutifs par ferme ont été suivis pendant 12 mois. Des échantillons environnementaux ont été prélevés à l’intérieur et à l’extérieur des fermes (3 visites d’élevage), dans la cour de l’abattoir (2 visites lors de sorties de lot) et sur le camion de transport. La détection des gènes de virulence (eltB, estA, estB, faeG, stxA, stx2A, eae, cnf, papC, iucD, tsh, fedA) dans les échantillons a été réalisée par PCR multiplexe conventionnelle. La distribution temporelle et spatiale des gènes de virulence a permis d’identifier le marqueur de contamination ETEC/F4 défini par la détection d’au moins un gène d’entérotoxine ETEC (estB, estA et eltB) en combinaison avec le gène de l’adhésine fimbriaire (faeG). La distribution des échantillons positifs ETEC/F4 qualifie la cour de l’abattoir comme un réservoir de contamination fréquenté par les transporteurs, vecteurs de contamination entre les élevages. Ceci suggère le lien microbiologique entre l’élevage, les transporteurs et l’abattoir jouant chacun un rôle dans la dissémination des microorganismes pathogènes et potentiellement zoonotiques en production porcine.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.

Homogeneous Spatial Units (HSU) - a Pan-European geographical basis for environmental and socio-economic modelling

The spatial data set delineates areas with similar environmental properties regarding soil, terrain morphology, climate and affiliation to the same administrative unit (NUTS3 or comparable units in size) at a minimum pixel size of 1km2. The scope of developing this data set is to provide a link between spatial environmental information (e.g. soil properties) and statistical data (e.g. crop distribution) available at administrative level. Impact assessment of agricultural management on emissions of pollutants or radiative active gases, or analysis regarding the influence of agricultural management on the supply of ecosystem services, require the proper spatial coincidence of the driving factors. The HSU data set provides e.g. the link between the agro-economic model CAPRI and biophysical assessment of environmental impacts (updating previously spatial units, Leip et al. 2008), for the analysis of policy scenarios. Recently, a statistical model to disaggregate crop information available from regional statistics to the HSU has been developed (Lamboni et al. 2016). The HSU data set consists of the spatial layers provided in vector and raster format as well as attribute tables with information on the properties of the HSU. All input data for the delineation the HSU is publicly available. For some parameters the attribute tables provide the link between the HSU data set and e.g. the soil map(s) rather than the data itself. The HSU data set is closely linked the USCIE data set.

The distribution of macrobenthos in surface sediments at Fladen Ground stations, North Sea

A general study of structure, biomass estimates and dynamics on the macrofauna was carried out in August 1975 and March 1976 during PREFLEX (1975) and FLEX (1976), the Fladen Ground Experiment. On the basis of these data an attempt was made to estimate macrobenthic production expressed as minimum production (MP). The macrobenthic production is discussed together with meiobenthic annual production and with indirectly estimated microbenthic production in relation to an energy input from the water column of about 25 g C m**-2 year**-1. From the production estimates of the three benthic components a rough energy budget is proposed. Sampling was performed at five stations for endofauna twice during the time of investigation and for epifauna once. At each station two replicate box core samples (30 X 20 cm) were taken for endofauna. Epifauna was sampled with an Agassiz trawl once at each station. The total numbers of endofauna increased from station 1 to 5. This was valid as well for August 1975 (4,233-12,166 individuals per m**2 and 10 cm sediment depth) as for March 1976 (1,008-2,925 individuals). The polychaetes were the dominant organisms with a share of 33 to 62 %. The densities for the endofauna decreased from August 1975 to March 1976 by a mean factor of 2.8. Abundances of epifauna amounted to values between 11 and 102 individuals per 1000 m**2. The biomass dry weights (DWT) for macrobenthic endofauna varied between 0.97 g DWT m**-2 and 6.42 g DWT m**-2 in August 1975 and between 0.27 g DWT m**-2 and 2.64 g DWT m**-2 in March 1976. The mean amounted to 1.74 g DWT m**-2. Dry weights of epifauna biomass gave values between 4.9 and 83.1 g DWT * 1000 m**-2. The minimum production for the total macro-endofauna at Fladen Ground amounted to 1.43 g DWT m**-2 yr**-1 or 0.82 g C m**-2 yr**-1. This resulted in a minimum turnover rate (P/B) of 0.8. The share produced by the polychaetes amounted to 1.06g DWT m**-2 yr**-1 or 74 %.

Is the distribution of Fiji leaf gall in Australian sugarcane explained by variation in the vector Perkinsiella saccharicida?

Fiji leaf gall (FLG) is an important virally induced disease in Australian sugarcane. It is confined to southern canegrowing areas, despite its vector, the delphacid planthopper Perkinsiella saccharicida, occurring in all canegrowing areas of Queensland and New South Wales. This disparity between distributions could be a result of successful containment of the disease through quarantine and/or geographical barriers, or because northern Queensland populations of Perkinsiella may be poorer vectors of the disease. These hypotheses were first tested by investigating variation in the ITS2 region of the rDNA fragment among eastern Australian and overseas populations of Perkinsiella. The ITS2 sequences of the Western Australian P. thompsoni and the Fijian P. vitiensis were distinguishable from those of P. saccharicida and there was no significant variation among the 26P. saccharicida populations. Reciprocal crosses of a northern Queensland and a southern Queensland population of P. saccharicida were fertile, so they may well be conspecific. Single vector transmission experiments showed that a population of P. saccharicida from northern Queensland had a higher vector competency than either of two southern Queensland populations. The frequency of virus acquisition in the vector populations was demonstrated to be important in the vector competency of the planthopper. The proportion of infected vectors that transmitted the virus to plants was not significantly different among the populations tested. This study shows that the absence of FLG from northern Queensland is not due to a lack of vector competency of the northern population of P. saccharicida.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Phi = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

A multi-organisational approach for disaster preparedness and response:the use of optimisation and GIS for facility location, stock pre-positioning, resource allocation and relief distribution

From 1992 to 2012 4.4 billion people were affected by disasters with almost 2 trillion USD in damages and 1.3 million people killed worldwide. The increasing threat of disasters stresses the need to provide solutions for the challenges faced by disaster managers, such as the logistical deployment of resources required to provide relief to victims. The location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, evacuation, inventory management, resource allocation, and relief distribution have been identified to directly impact the relief provided to victims during the disaster. Managing appropriately these factors is critical to reduce suffering. Disaster management commonly attracts several organisations working alongside each other and sharing resources to cope with the emergency. Coordinating these agencies is a complex task but there is little research considering multiple organisations, and none actually optimising the number of actors required to avoid shortages and convergence. The aim of the this research is to develop a system for disaster management based on a combination of optimisation techniques and geographical information systems (GIS) to aid multi-organisational decision-making. An integrated decision system was created comprising a cartographic model implemented in GIS to discard floodable facilities, combined with two models focused on optimising the decisions regarding location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning, the allocation of resources and relief distribution, along with the number of actors required to perform these activities. Three in-depth case studies in Mexico were studied gathering information from different organisations. The cartographic model proved to reduce the risk to select unsuitable facilities. The preparedness and response models showed the capacity to optimise the decisions and the number of organisations required for logistical activities, pointing towards an excess of actors involved in all cases. The system as a whole demonstrated its capacity to provide integrated support for disaster preparedness and response, along with the existence of room for improvement for Mexican organisations in flood management.

Distribution of planktic foraminifera in surface sediments of the Atlantic Ocean

We present a data set of 738 planktonic foraminiferal species counts from sediment surface samples of the eastern North Atlantic and the South Atlantic between 87°N and 40°S, 35°E and 60°W including published Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) data. These species counts are linked to Levitus's [1982] modern water temperature data for the four caloric seasons, four depth ranges (0, 30, 50, and 75 m), and the combined means of those depth ranges. The relation between planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and sea surface temperature (SST) data is estimated using the newly developed SIMMAX technique, which is an acronym for a modern analog technique (MAT) with a similarity index, based on (1) the scalar product of the normalized faunal percentages and (2) a weighting procedure of the modern analog's SSTs according to the inverse geographical distances of the most similar samples. Compared to the classical CLIMAP transfer technique and conventional MAT techniques, SIMMAX provides a more confident reconstruction of paleo-SSTs (correlation coefficient is 0.994 for the caloric winter and 0.993 for caloric summer). The standard deviation of the residuals is 0.90°C for caloric winter and 0.96°C for caloric summer at 0-m water depth. The SST estimates reach optimum stability (standard deviation of the residuals is 0.88°C) at the average 0- to 75-m water depth. Our extensive database provides SST estimates over a range of -1.4 to 27.2°C for caloric winter and 0.4 to 28.6°C for caloric summer, allowing SST estimates which are especially valuable for the high-latitude Atlantic during glacial times.