Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the "father of modern climate theory." Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz's famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society "for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth's climate." In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry's memory.

Role of Crop Research and Development in food Security of Africa

Food security is the main concern in Africa as the production and productivity of crops are under continuous threat. Indigenous crops also known as orphan- or as underutilized- crops provide key contributions to food security under the present scenario of increasing world population and changing climate. Hence, these crops which belong to the major categories of cereals, legumes, fruits and root crops play a key role in the livelihood of the resource-poor farmers and consumers since they perform better than the major world crops under extreme soil and climate conditions prevalent in the continent. These indigenous crops have the major advantage that they fit well into the general socio-economic and ecological context of the region. However, despite their huge importance, African crops have generally received little attention by the global scientific community. With the current production systems, only a fraction of yield potential was achieved for most of these crops. In order to devise strategies towards boosting crop productivity in Africa, the current production constraints should be investigated and properly addressed. Key traits known to increase productivity and/or improve nutrition and diverse conventional and modern crop improvement techniques need to be implemented. Commitments in the value-chain from the research, production, marketing to distribution of improved seeds are required by relevant national and international institutions as well as African governments to promote food security in a sustainable manner. The review also presents major achievements and suggestions for stakeholders interested in African agriculture.

Simple measures of climate, soil properties and plant traits predict national-scale grassland soil carbon stocks

Soil carbon (C) storage is a key ecosystem service. Soil C stocks play a vital role in soil fertility and climate regulation, but the factors that control these stocks at regional and national scales are unknown, particularly when their composition and stability are considered. As a result, their mapping relies on either unreliable proxy measures or laborious direct measurements. Using data from an extensive national survey of English grasslands, we show that surface soil (0–7 cm) C stocks in size fractions of varying stability can be predicted at both regional and national scales from plant traits and simple measures of soil and climatic conditions. Soil C stocks in the largest pool, of intermediate particle size (50–250 μm), were best explained by mean annual temperature (MAT), soil pH and soil moisture content. The second largest C pool, highly stable physically and biochemically protected particles (0·45–50 μm), was explained by soil pH and the community abundance-weighted mean (CWM) leaf nitrogen (N) content, with the highest soil C stocks under N-rich vegetation. The C stock in the small active fraction (250–4000 μm) was explained by a wide range of variables: MAT, mean annual precipitation, mean growing season length, soil pH and CWM specific leaf area; stocks were higher under vegetation with thick and/or dense leaves. Testing the models describing these fractions against data from an independent English region indicated moderately strong correlation between predicted and actual values and no systematic bias, with the exception of the active fraction, for which predictions were inaccurate. Synthesis and applications. Validation indicates that readily available climate, soils and plant survey data can be effective in making local- to landscape-scale (1–100 000 km2) soil C stock predictions. Such predictions are a crucial component of effective management strategies to protect C stocks and enhance soil C sequestration.

Interactions of climate and land use documented in the varved sediments of Seebergsee in the Swiss Alps

This paper presents a multiproxy high-resolution study of the past 2600 years for Seebergsee, a small Swiss lake with varved sediments at the present tree-line ecotone. The laminae were identified as varves by a numerical analysis of diatom counts in the thin-sections. The hypothesis of two diatom blooms per year was corroborated by the 210Pb and 137Cs chronology. A period of intensive pasturing during the ‘Little Ice Age’ between ad 1346 and ad 1595 is suggested by coprophilous fungal spores, as well as by pollen indicators of grazing, by the diatom-inferred total phosphorus, by geochemistry and by documentary data. The subsequent re-oligotrophication of the lake took about 88 years, as determined by the timelag between the decline of coprophile fungal spores and the restoration of pre-eutrophic nutrient conditions. According to previous studies of latewood densities from the same region, cold summers around ad 1600 limited the pasturing at this altitude. This demonstrated the socio-economic impact of a single climatic event. However, the variance partitioning between the effects of land use and climate, which was applied for the whole core, revealed that climate independent of land use and time explained only 1.32% of the diatom data, while land use independent of climate and time explained 15.7%. Clearly land use in‘ uenced the lake, but land use was not always driven by climate. Other factors beside climate, such as politics or the introduction of fertilizers in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries also in‘ uenced the development of Alpine pasturing.

Gibberellin Deficiency Confers Both Lodging and Drought Tolerance in Small Cereals

Tef [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter] and finger millet [Eleusine coracana Gaertn] are staple cereal crops in Africa and Asia with several desirable agronomic and nutritional properties. Tef is becoming a life-style crop as it is gluten-free while finger millet has a low glycemic index which makes it an ideal food for diabetic patients. However, both tef and finger millet have extremely low grain yields mainly due to moisture scarcity and susceptibility of the plants to lodging. In this study, the effects of gibberellic acid (GA) inhibitors particularly paclobutrazol (PBZ) on diverse physiological and yield-related parameters were investigated and compared to GA mutants in rice (Oryza sativa L.). The application of PBZ to tef and finger millet significantly reduced the plant height and increased lodging tolerance. Remarkably, PBZ also enhanced the tolerance of both tef and finger millet to moisture deficit. Under moisture scarcity, tef plants treated with PBZ did not exhibit drought-related symptoms and their stomatal conductance was unaltered, leading to higher shoot biomass and grain yield. Semi-dwarf rice mutants altered in GA biosynthesis, were also shown to have improved tolerance to dehydration. The combination of traits (drought tolerance, lodging tolerance and increased yield) that we found in plants with altered GA pathway is of importance to breeders who would otherwise rely on extensive crossing to introgress each trait individually. The key role played by PBZ in the tolerance to both lodging and drought calls for further studies using mutants in the GA biosynthesis pathway in order to obtain candidate lines which can be incorporated into crop-breeding programs to create lodging tolerant and climate-smart crops.

Yields of Corn, Soybeans, and Alfalfa in Western Iowa: 1990 to 2011

The ISU Western Research Farm, Castana, Iowa is one of the oldest in Iowa dating to 1946. It also has a unique location in the loess hills of western Iowa. The research farm was set up to study the deep loess soils, particularly crop production and soil conservation methods. Although the work at the research farm has transitioned away from traditional plot work, yields of major crops grown at the farm, and climate data are collected each year. Crop yields are a reflection of current technologies and weather. In western Iowa, rainfall is especially critical and is often the limiting factor.

Climate and total tree cover reconstructions based on the 43.7-kyr fossil pollen record from Khoe (NW Sakhalin Island) and modern climate variables of 236 modern surface pollen sampling sites

A late Quaternary pollen record from northern Sakhalin Island (51.34°N, 142.14°E, 15 m a.s.l.) spanning the last 43.7 ka was used to reconstruct regional climate dynamics and vegetation distribution by using the modern analogue technique (MAT). The long-term trends of the reconstructed mean annual temperature (TANN) and precipitation (PANN), and total tree cover are generally in line with key palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region and the Asian monsoon domain. TANN largely follows the fluctuations in solar summer insolation at 55°N. During Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, TANN and PANN were on average 0.2 °C and 700 mm, respectively, thus very similar to late Holocene/modern conditions. Full glacial climate deterioration (TANN = -3.3 °C, PANN = 550 mm) was relatively weak as suggested by the MAT-inferred average climate parameters and tree cover densities. However, error ranges of the climate reconstructions during this interval are relatively large and the last glacial environments in northern Sakhalin could be much colder and drier than suggested by the weighted average values. An anti-phase relationship between mean temperature of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month is documented during the last glacial period, i.e. MIS 2 and 3, suggesting more continental climate due to sea levels that were lower than present. Warmest and wettest climate conditions have prevailed since the end of the last glaciation with an optimum (TANN = 1.5 °C, PANN = 800 mm) in the middle Holocene interval (ca 8.7-5.2 cal. ka BP). This lags behind the solar insolation peak during the early Holocene. We propose that this is due to continuous Holocene sea level transgression and regional influence of the Tsushima Warm Current, which reached maximum intensity during the middle Holocene. Several short-term climate oscillations are suggested by our reconstruction results and correspond to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the Bølling-Allerød and the Younger Dryas. The most prominent fluctuation is registered during Heinrich 4 event, which is marked by noticeably colder and drier conditions and the spread of herbaceous taxa.

Energy subsidies from a climate and trade perspective

A short paper for dissemination based on a research piece published by the E15Initiative: Subsidies, Clean Energy, and Climate Change, February 2015. Implemented jointly by ICTSD and the World Economic Forum, the E15Initiative convenes world-class experts and institutions to generate strategic analysis and recommendations for government, business, and civil society geared towards strengthening the global trade and investment system. The paper is also published in Spanish and Portuguese.

Residual effect of organic zinc complexes in acid and calcareous soils on navy bean (phaseolus vulgaris l.) and flax (linum usitatissimum l.) crops under greenhouse conditions. Influence of the moisture conditions = Efecto residual de complejos orgánicos de zinc en suelos ácido y calizo en cultivos de judía (phaseolus vulgaris l.) y lino (linum usitatissimum l.) Realizados en condiciones de invernadero. Influencia de las diferentes condiciones de humedad

El Zn es un elemento esencial para el crecimiento saludable y reproducción de plantas, animales y humanos. La deficiencia de Zn es una de las carencias de micronutrientes más extendidas en muchos cultivos, afectando a grandes extensiones de suelos en diferentes áreas agrícolas. La biofortificación agronómica de diferentes cultivos, incrementando la concentración de micronutriente Zn en la planta, es un medio para evitar la deficiencia de Zn en animales y humanos. Tradicionalmente se han utilizado fertilizantes de Zn inorgánicos, como el ZnSO4, aunque en los últimos años se están utilizado complejos de Zn como fuentes de este micronutriente, obteniéndose altas concentraciones de Zn soluble y disponible en el suelo. Sin embargo, el envejecimiento de la fuente en el suelo puede causar cambios importantes en su disponibilidad para las plantas. Cuando se añaden al suelo fuentes de Zn inorgánicas, las formas de Zn más solubles pierden actividad y extractabilidad con el paso del tiempo, transformándose a formas más estables y menos biodisponibles. En esta tesis se estudia el efecto residual de diferentes complejos de Zn de origen natural y sintético, aplicados en cultivos previos de judía y lino, bajo dos condiciones de riego distintas (por encima y por debajo de la capacidad de campo, respectivamente) y en dos suelos diferentes (ácido y calizo). Los fertilizantes fueron aplicados al cultivo previo en tres dosis diferentes (0, 5 y 10 mg Zn kg-1 suelo). El Zn fácilmente lixiviable se estimó con la extracción con BaCl2 0,1M. Bajo condiciones de humedad por encima de la capacidad de campo se obtuvieron mayores porcentajes de Zn lixiviado en el suelo calizo que en el suelo ácido. En el caso del cultivo de judía realizado en condiciones de humedad por encima de la capacidad de campo se compararon las cantidades extraídas con el Zn lixiviado real. El análisis de correlación entre el Zn fácilmente lixiviable y el estimado sólo fue válido para complejos con alta movilidad y para cada suelo por separado. Bajo condiciones de humedad por debajo de la capacidad de campo, la concentración de Zn biodisponible fácilmente lixiviable presentó correlaciones positivas y altamente significativas con la concentración de Zn disponible en el suelo. El Zn disponible se estimó con varios métodos de extracción empleados habitualmente: DTPA-TEA, DTPA-AB, Mehlich-3 y LMWOAs. Estas concentraciones fueron mayores en el suelo ácido que en el calizo. Los diferentes métodos utilizados para estimar el Zn disponible presentaron correlaciones positivas y altamente significativas entre sí. La distribución del Zn en las distintas fracciones del suelo fue estimada con diferentes extracciones secuenciales. Las extracciones secuenciales mostraron un descenso entre los dos cultivos (el anterior y el actual) en la fracción de Zn más lábil y un aumento en la concentración de Zn asociado a fracciones menos lábiles, como carbonatos, óxidos y materia orgánica. Se obtuvieron correlaciones positivas y altamente significativas entre las concentraciones de Zn asociado a las fracciones más lábiles (WSEX y WS+EXC, experimento de la judía y lino, respectivamente) y las concentraciones de Zn disponible, estimadas por los diferentes métodos. Con respecto a la planta se determinaron el rendimiento en materia seca y la concentración de Zn en planta. Se observó un aumento del rendimiento y concentraciones con el efecto residual de la dosis mayores (10 mg Zn kg-1) con respecto a la dosis inferior (5 mg Zn 12 kg-1) y de ésta con respecto a la dosis 0 (control). El incremento de la concentración de Zn en todos los tratamientos fertilizantes, respecto al control, fue mayor en el suelo ácido que en el calizo. Las concentraciones de Zn en planta indicaron que, en el suelo calizo, serían convenientes nuevas aplicaciones de Zn en posteriores cultivos para mantener unas adecuadas concentraciones en planta. Las mayores concentraciones de Zn en la planta de judía, cultivada bajo condiciones de humedad por encima de la capacidad de campo, se obtuvieron en el suelo ácido con el efecto residual del Zn-HEDTA a la dosis de 10 mg Zn kg-1 (280,87 mg Zn kg-1) y en el suelo calizo con el efecto residual del Zn-DTPA-HEDTA-EDTA a la dosis de 10 mg Zn kg-1 (49,89 mg Zn kg-1). En el cultivo de lino, cultivado bajo condiciones de humedad por debajo de la capacidad de campo, las mayores concentraciones de Zn en planta ese obtuvieron con el efecto residual del Zn-AML a la dosis de 10 mg Zn kg-1 (224,75 mg Zn kg-1) y en el suelo calizo con el efecto residual del Zn-EDTA a la dosis de 10 mg Zn kg-1 (99,83 mg Zn kg-1). El Zn tomado por la planta fue determinado como combinación del rendimiento y de la concentración en planta. Bajo condiciones de humedad por encima de capacidad de campo, con lixiviación, el Zn tomado por la judía disminuyó en el cultivo actual con respecto al cultivo anterior. Sin embargo, en el cultivo de lino, bajo condiciones de humedad por debajo de la capacidad de campo, se obtuvieron cantidades de Zn tomado superiores en el cultivo actual con respecto al anterior. Esta tendencia también se observó, en ambos casos, con el porcentaje de Zn usado por la planta. Summary Zinc is essential for healthy growth and reproduction of plants, animals and humans. Zinc deficiency is one of the most widespread micronutrient deficiency in different crops, and affect different agricultural areas. Agronomic biofortification of crops produced by an increased of Zn in plant, is one way to avoid Zn deficiency in animals and humans Sources with inorganic Zn, such as ZnSO4, have been used traditionally. Although, in recent years, Zn complexes are used as sources of this micronutrient, the provide high concentrations of soluble and available Zn in soil. However, the aging of the source in the soil could cause significant changes in their availability to plants. When an inorganic source of Zn is added to soil, Zn forms more soluble and extractability lose activity over time, transforming into forms more stable and less bioavailable. This study examines the residual effect of different natural and synthetic Zn complexes on navy bean and flax crops, under two different moisture conditions (above and below field capacity, respectively) and in two different soils (acid and calcareous). Fertilizers were applied to the previous crop in three different doses (0, 5 y 10 mg Zn kg-1 soil). The easily leachable Zn was estimated by extraction with 0.1 M BaCl2. Under conditions of moisture above field capacity, the percentage of leachable Zn in the calcareous soil was higher than in acid soil. In the case of navy bean experiment, performed in moisture conditions of above field capacity, amounts extracted of easily leachable Zn were compared with the real leachable Zn. Correlation analysis between the leachable Zn and the estimate was only valid for complex with high mobility and for each soil separately. Under moisture conditions below field capacity, the concentration of bioavailable easily leachable Zn showed highly significant positive correlations with the concentration of available soil Zn. The available Zn was estimated with several commonly used extraction methods: DTPA-TEA, AB-DTPA, Mehlich-3 and LMWOAs. These concentrations were higher in acidic soil than in the calcareous. The different methods used to estimate the available Zn showed highly significant positive correlations with each other. The distribution of Zn in the different fractions of soil was estimated with different sequential extractions. The sequential extractions showed a decrease between the two crops (the previous and current) at the most labile Zn fraction and an increase in the concentration of Zn associated with the less labile fractions, such as carbonates, oxides and organic matter. A positive and highly significant correlation was obtained between the concentrations of Zn associated with more labile fractions (WSEX and WS + EXC, navy bean and flax experiments, respectively) and available Zn concentrations determined by the different methods. Dry matter yield and Zn concentration in plants were determined in plant. Yield and Zn concentration in plant were higher with the residual concentrations of the higher dose applied (10 mg Zn kg-1) than with the lower dose (5 mg Zn kg-1), also these parameters showed higher values with application of this dose than with not Zn application. The increase of Zn concentration in plant with Zn treatments, respect to the control, was greater in the acid soil than in the calcareous. The Zn concentrations in plant indicated that in the calcareous soil, new applications of Zn are desirable in subsequent crops to maintain suitable concentrations in plant. 15 The highest concentrations of Zn in navy bean plant, performed under moisture conditions above the field capacity, were obtained with the residual effect of Zn-HEDTA at the dose of 10 mg Zn kg-1 (280.87 mg Zn kg-1) in the acid soil, and with the residual effect of Zn- DTPA-HEDTA-EDTA at a dose of 10 mg Zn kg-1 (49.89 mg Zn kg-1) in the calcareous soil. In the flax crop, performed under moisture conditions below field capacity, the highest Zn concentrations in plant were obtained with the residual effect of Zn-AML at the dose of 10 mg Zn kg-1 (224.75 Zn mg kg-1) and with the residual effect of Zn-EDTA at a dose of 10 mg Zn kg-1 (99.83 mg Zn kg-1) in the calcareous soil. The Zn uptake was determined as a combination of yield and Zn concentration in plant. Under moisture conditions above field capacity, with leaching, Zn uptake by navy bean decreased in the current crop, respect to the previous crop. However, in the flax crop, under moisture conditions below field capacity, Zn uptake was higher in the current crop than in the previous. This trend is also observed in both cases, with the percentage of Zn used by the plant

Implications of agricultural production, policy and land use changes on water resource assessment

Una gestión más eficiente y equitativa del agua a escala de cuenca no se puede centrar exclusivamente en el recurso hídrico en sí, sino también en otras políticas y disciplinas científicas. Existe un consenso creciente de que, además de la consideración de las cambiantes condiciones climáticas, es necesaria una integración de ámbitos de investigación tales como la agronomía, planificación del territorio y ciencias políticas y económicas a fin de satisfacer de manera sostenible las demandas de agua por parte de la sociedad y del medio natural. La Política Agrícola Común (PAC) es el principal motor de cambio en las tendencias de paisajes rurales y sistemas agrícolas, pero el deterioro del medio ambiente es ahora una de las principales preocupaciones. Uno de los cambios más relevantes se ha producido con la expansión e intensificación del olivar en España, principalmente con nuevas zonas de regadío o la conversión de olivares de secano a sistemas en regadío. Por otra parte, el cambio de las condiciones climáticas podría ejercer un papel importante en las tendencias negativas de las aportaciones a los ríos, pero no queda claro el papel que podrían estar jugando los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas de caudal observadas. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo mejorar el conocimiento de los efectos de la producción agrícola, política agraria y cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las condiciones de calidad del agua, respuesta hidrológica y apropiación del agua por parte de la sociedad. En primer lugar, el estudio determina las tendencias existentes de nitratos y sólidos en suspensión en las aguas superficiales de la cuenca del río Guadalquivir durante el periodo de 1998 a 2009. Desde una perspectiva de política agraria, la investigación trata de evaluar mediante un análisis de datos de panel las principales variables, incluyendo la reforma de la PAC de 2003, que están teniendo una influencia en ambos indicadores de calidad. En segundo lugar, la apropiación del agua y el nivel de contaminación por nitratos debido a la producción del aceite de oliva en España se determinan con una evaluación de la huella hídrica (HH), teniendo en cuenta una variabilidad espacial y temporal a largo de las provincias españolas y entre 1997 y 2008. Por último, la tesis analiza los efectos de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal sobre las tendencias negativas observadas en la zona alta del Turia, cabecera de la cuenca del río Júcar, durante el periodo 1973-2008 mediante una modelización ecohidrológica. En la cuenca del Guadalquivir cerca del 20% de las estaciones de monitoreo muestran tendencias significativas, lineales o cuadráticas, para cada indicador de calidad de agua. La mayoría de las tendencias significativas en nitratos están aumentando, y la mayoría de tendencias cuadráticas muestran un patrón en forma de U. Los modelos de regresión de datos de panel muestran que las variables más importantes que empeoran ambos indicadores de calidad del agua son la intensificación de biomasa y las exportaciones de ambos indicadores de calidad procedentes de aguas arriba. En regiones en las que el abandono agrícola y/o desintensificación han tenido lugar han mejorado las condiciones de calidad del agua. Para los nitratos, el desacoplamiento de las subvenciones a la agricultura y la reducción de la cuantía de las subvenciones a tierras de regadío subyacen en la reducción observada de la concentración de nitratos. Las medidas de modernización de regadíos y el establecimiento de zonas vulnerables a nitratos reducen la concentración en subcuencas que muestran una tendencia creciente de nitratos. Sin embargo, el efecto de las exportaciones de nitratos procedente de aguas arriba, la intensificación de la biomasa y los precios de los cultivos presentan un mayor peso, explicando la tendencia creciente observada de nitratos. Para los sólidos en suspensión, no queda de forma evidente si el proceso de desacoplamiento ha influido negativa o positivamente. Sin embargo, los mayores valores de las ayudas agrarias aún ligadas a la producción, en particular en zonas de regadío, conllevan un aumento de las tasas de erosión. Aunque la cuenca del Guadalquivir ha aumentado la producción agrícola y la eficiencia del uso del agua, el problema de las altas tasas de erosión aún no ha sido mitigado adecuadamente. El estudio de la huella hídrica (HH) revela que en 1 L de aceite de oliva español más del 99,5% de la HH está relacionado con la producción de la aceituna, mientras que menos del 0,5% se debe a otros componentes, es decir, a la botella, tapón y etiqueta. Durante el período estudiado, la HH verde en secano y en regadío representa alrededor del 72% y 12%, respectivamente, del total de la HH. Las HHs azul y gris representan 6% y 10%, respectivamente. La producción de aceitunas se concentra en regiones con una HH menor por unidad de producto. La producción de aceite de oliva ha aumentado su productividad del agua durante 1997-2008, incentivado por los crecientes precios del aceite, como también lo ha hecho la cantidad de exportaciones de agua virtual. De hecho, las mayores zonas productoras presentan una eficiencia alta del uso y de productividad del agua, así como un menor potencial de contaminación por nitratos. Pero en estas zonas se ve a la vez reflejado un aumento de presión sobre los recursos hídricos locales. El aumento de extracciones de agua subterránea relacionadas con las exportaciones de aceite de oliva podría añadir una mayor presión a la ya estresada cuenca del Guadalquivir, mostrando la necesidad de equilibrar las fuerzas del mercado con los recursos locales disponibles. Los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal juegan un papel importante en el balance del agua de la cuenca alta del Turia, pero no son el principal motor que sustenta la reducción observada de caudal. El aumento de la temperatura es el principal factor que explica las mayores tasas de evapotranspiración y la reducción de caudales. Sin embargo, los cambios de uso de suelo y el cambio climático han tenido un efecto compensatorio en la respuesta hidrológica. Por un lado, el caudal se ha visto afectado negativamente por el aumento de la temperatura, mientras que los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal han compensado positivamente con una reducción de las tasas de evapotranspiración, gracias a los procesos de disminución de la densidad de matorral y de degradación forestal. El estudio proporciona una visión que fortalece la interdisciplinariedad entre la planificación hidrológica y territorial, destacando la necesidad de incluir las implicaciones de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en futuros planes hidrológicos. Estos hallazgos son valiosos para la gestión de la cuenca del río Turia, y el enfoque empleado es útil para la determinación del peso de los cambios de uso de suelo y cobertura vegetal en la respuesta hidrológica en otras regiones. ABSTRACT Achieving a more efficient and equitable water management at catchment scale does not only rely on the water resource itself, but also on other policies and scientific knowledge. There is a growing consensus that, in addition to consideration of changing climate conditions, integration with research areas such as agronomy, land use planning and economics and political science is required to meet sustainably the societal and environmental water demands. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a main driver for trends in rural landscapes and agricultural systems, but environmental deterioration is now a principal concern. One of the most relevant changes has occurred with the expansion and intensification of olive orchards in Spain, taking place mainly with new irrigated areas or with the conversion from rainfed to irrigated systems. Moreover, changing climate conditions might exert a major role on water yield trends, but it remains unclear the role that ongoing land use and land cover changes (LULCC) might have on observed river flow trends. This thesis aims to improve the understanding of the effects of agricultural production, policies and LULCC on water quality conditions, hydrological response and human water appropriation. Firstly, the study determines the existing trends for nitrates and suspended solids in the Guadalquivir river basin’s surface waters (south Spain) during the period from 1998 to 2009. From a policy perspective, the research tries to assess with panel data analysis the main drivers, including the 2003 CAP reform, which are having an influence on both water quality indicators. Secondly, water appropriation and nitrate pollution level originating from the production of olive oil in Spain is determined with a water footprint (WF) assessment, considering a spatial temporal variability across the Spanish provinces and from 1997 to 2008 years. Finally, the thesis analyzes the effects of the LULCC on the observed negative trends over the period 1973-2008 in the Upper Turia basin, headwaters of the Júcar river demarcation (east Spain), with ecohydrological modeling. In the Guadalquivir river basin about 20% of monitoring stations show significant trends, linear or quadratic, for each water quality indicator. Most significant trends of nitrates are augmenting than decreasing, and most significant quadratic terms of both indicators exhibit U-shaped patterns. The panel data models show that the most important drivers that are worsening nitrates and suspended solids in the basin are biomass intensification and exports of both water quality indicators from upland regions. In regions that agricultural abandonment and/or de-intensification have taken place the water quality conditions have improved. For nitrates, the decoupling of agricultural subsidies and the reduction of the amount of subsidies to irrigated land underlie the observed reduction of nitrates concentration. Measures of irrigation modernization and establishment of vulnerable zones to nitrates ameliorate the concentration of nitrates in subbasins showing an increasing trend. However, the effect of nitrates load from upland areas, intensification of biomass and crop prices present a greater weight leading to the final increasing trend in this subbasins group, where annual crops dominate. For suspended solids, there is no clear evidence that decoupling process have influenced negatively or positively. Nevertheless, greater values of subsidies still linked to production, particularly in irrigated regions, lead to increasing erosion rates. Although agricultural production has augmented in the basin and water efficiency in the agricultural sector has improved, the issue of high erosion rates has not yet been properly faced. The water footprint (WF) assessment reveals that for 1 L Spanish olive oil more than 99.5% of the WF is related to the olive fruit production, whereas less than 0.5% is due to other components i.e. bottle, cap and label. Over the studied period, the green WF in rainfed and irrigated systems represents about 72% and 12%, respectively, of the total WF. Blue and grey WFs represent 6% and 10%, respectively. The olive production is concentrated in regions with the smallest WF per unit of product. The olive oil production has increased its apparent water productivity from 1997 to 2008 incentivized by growing trade prices, but also did the amount of virtual water exports. In fact, the largest producing areas present high water use efficiency per product and apparent water productivity as well as less nitrates pollution potential, but this enhances the pressure on the available water resources. Increasing groundwater abstractions related to olive oil exports may add further pressure to the already stressed Guadalquivir basin. This shows the need to balance the market forces with the available local resources. Concerning the effects of LULCC on the Upper Turia basin’s streamflow, LULCC play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting larger evapotranspiration rates and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and climate change have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. The research provides insight for strengthening the interdisciplinarity between hydrological and spatial planning, highlighting the need to include the implications of LULCC in future hydrological plans. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10^6 ms^3 s^-1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Brazilian climate policy since 2005: continuity, change and prospective. CEPS Working Document No. 373, February 2013

In the five-year period 2005-09, Brazil has dramatically reduced carbon emissions by around 25% and at the same time has kept a stable economic growth rate of 3.5% annually. This combination of economic growth and emissions reduction is unique in the world. The driver was a dramatic reduction in deforestation in the Amazonian forest and the Cerrado Savannah. This shift empowered the sustainability social forces in Brazil to the point that the national Congress passed (December 2009) a very progressive law internalising carbon constraints and promoting the transition to a low-carbon economy. The transformation in Brazil’s carbon emissions profile and climate policy has increased the potentialities of convergence between the European Union and Brazil. The first part of this paper examines the assumption on which this paper is based, mainly that the trajectory of carbon emissions and climate/energy policies of the G20 powers is much more important than the United Nations multilateral negotiations for assessing the possibility of global transition to a low-carbon economy. The second part analyses Brazil’s position in the global carbon cycle and public policies since 2005, including the progressive shift in 2009 and the contradictory dynamic in 2010-12. The final part analyses the potential for a transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil and the impact in global climate governance.