Iowa Crop and Weather Report, September 9, 2013 Vol 13, no.27

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, September 16, 2013 Vol 13, no.28

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, October 21, 2013 Vol 13, no.33

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, October 28, 2013 Vol 13, no.34

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, November 4, 2013 Vol 13, no.35

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, November 10, 2013 Vol 13, no.36

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, November 24, 2013 Vol 13, no.38

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, Issued January 6, 2014 for the month of December 2013

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October.

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, Issued February 4, 2014, For the month of January 2014

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October. Issued February 4, 2014 For the month of January 2014

Iowa Crop and Weather Report, Issued March 4, 2014 For the month of February 2014

Report produced by the The Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship, Climatology Bureau. Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey today commented on the Iowa Crops and Weather report released by the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service. The report is released weekly from April through October. Issued March 4, 2014 For the month of February 2014

Stable O and H isotopic composition of hydrous minerals as proxies for paleoclimate and -topography : application to the European Alps

The isotopie composition of clay minerals can be used to gain information on paleoaltitude, -topography and -climate during the time of their formation, as they form in isotopie equilibrium with ambient water, which has an isotopie composition that is determined by previous rain-out. In this thesis, the usability of this approach is evaluated for sample material from both the North Alpine Foreland Basin and internal parts of the European Alps. The isotopie composition of precipitation is determined by the air temperature and the extent of previous rain-out, which in turn is affected by the distance to the point of origin of the water vapor and the condensation conditions. An orographic barrier leads to uplift and adiabatic cooling of air masses and thereby enhances rainfall with a characteristic depletion in heavy 0 and H isotopes. Processes such as evaporation and mixing of water with different origin affect the isotopie composition further on the surface. Clay minerals are hydrous phyllosilicates that can form during weathering or pedogenesis in isotopie equilibrium with the present water and inherit its isotopie composition with a characteristic fractionation. If their isotopie composition was preserved after formation and the necessary parameters are known, it is possible to calculate the isotopie composition of the ambient water and thereby reconstruct climatic and topographic conditions during their formation. Due to the hygroscopic behavior of the sample material, analytical procedures needed to be modified to allow an analysis of the oxygen and hydrogen isotopie composition of the hydroxyl water built into their crystal structure and not the one of recently adsorbed water. In order to determine typical 5lsO and 8D values of meteoric water and minerals in the weathering environment in high Alpine regions, samples of surface water and soils from the valley of Visp in the Swiss Alps were studied that were collected along a transect with varying altitudes and host rock lithologies. The actual aim to attempt the reconstruction of Alpine paleoelevations was addressed by the analysis of sediments deposited under marine and terrestrial conditions during the Miocene and Oligocene, which were sampled from different locations in Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Further bentonite and fault gouge clay samples were used as reference material from low and high elevations. Results show that the isotopie composition of clay minerals can be influenced by several factors, such as the mode and site of their formation, possible isotope exchange (which is evident for 8D values), the samples' mineral composition (such as the presence of detrital material) and the deposition environment. With a consideration of these parameters and limitation to certain sample material, conclusions are drawn on the isotopie composition of the water from which the clay minerals formed. Most of the obtained values lie in the same range as has been reported in literature for foreland precipitation. The reconstruction of paleoelevation might be possible for selected sites with a geographical setting close to the Alpine chain or for intramontane basins. - La composition isotopique des argiles, qui se forment typiquement en contact avec des eaux superficielles, peut être utilisée pour obtenir des informations sur la paléoaltitude, la paléotopographie et le paléoclimat pendant leur création. La composition en isotopes stable (oxygène et hydrogène) des eaux de pluie est déterminée par l'altitude, la température, la distance depuis le lieu d'évaporation et par le taux de précipitation. Certains processus comme l'évaporation, l'interaction avec des minéraux et le mélange d'eaux d'origines variées peuvent aussi changer la composition des eaux de surface. Les argiles sont des pliyllosilicates hydratés qui sont crées par l'altération des roches au contact de ces eaux de surface et ils acquièrent une composition isotopique qui est soumise à un certain fractionnement. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer si l'effet de l'altitude des Alpes, est détectable dans la composition isotopique des sédiments du bassin d'avant-pavs pendant le Miocène. Après avoir établi la procédure analytique, des compositions isotopiques typiques de régions de hautes altitudes ont été determine sur les eaux de surfaces (rivières) et sur des échantillons de sols, le long d'une coupe dans la valée de Visp, dans les Alpes Suisses. Une reconstruction des paléoaltitudes Miocènes Alpines a ensuite été mené par l'analyse de sédiments marins et terrestres en utilisant des échantillons d'âges variés et provenant de Suisse, d'Allemagne et d'Autriche. Les résultats montrent que la composition isotopique des échantillons est impactée par de multiples facteurs, tels que le mode de et le lieu de formation. un possible échange isotopique tardif (surtout pour 5D). leur composition minéralogique et l'environnement de leur sédimentation. Après un examen prudent de ces paramètres, et en se limitant à un certain assortiment d'échatillons, on peut tirer des conclusions sur la composition isotopique des eaux originelles pour en déduire l'effet du climat et de la topographie.

Floods of July 19-25, 1999, in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins, Northeast Iowa, HR-140

Severe flooding occurred during July 19-25, 1999, in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins following two thunderstorms over northeast Iowa. During July 18-19, as much as 6 inches ofrainfall was centered over Cerro Gordo, Floyd, Mitchell, and Worth Counties. During July 20-21, a second storm occurred in which an additional rainfall of as much as 8 inches was centered over Chickasaw and Floyd Counties. The cumulative effect of the storms produced floods with new maximum peak discharges at the following streamflow-gaging stations: Wapsipinicon River near Tripoli, 19,400 cubic feet per second; Cedar River at Charles City, 31,200 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 90 years); Cedar River at Janesville, 42,200 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 80 years); and Flood Creek near Powersville, 19,000 cubic feet per second. Profiles of flood elevations for the July 1999 flood are presented in this report for selected reaches along the Wapsipinicon, Cedar, and Shell Rock Rivers and along Flood Creek. Information about the river basins, rain storms, and flooding are presented along with information on temporary bench marks and reference points in the Wapsipinicon and Cedar River Basins.

Floods of May 17-20, 1999, in the Volga and Wapsipinicon River Basins, Northeast Iowa, HR-140

Record flooding occurred May 17-20, 1999, in the Volga and Wapsipinicon River Basins following thunderstorm activity over northeast Iowa. On Sunday, May 16, between 6 and 8 inches of rain fell during a 24- hour period over portions of Bremer, Butler, and Fayette Counties. Highest rainfall during this 24-hour period was 8.3 inches recorded north of Oelwein in southwest Fayette County. A peak discharge of 29,800 cubic feet per second in the Volga River at Mederville, 53,900 cubic feet per second in the Turkey River at Garber, and 31, 100 cubic feet per second in the Wapsipinicon River at Independence set new peak discharge records. The peak discharge at Garber was greater than a theoretical 500-year flood, and the peak discharge at Independence was the equivalent of a 90- year flood. Information about the basins, rain storms, flooding, and a profile of high water marks are presented for selected intervals along the Volga River, Wapsipinicon River, Crane Creek, Little Wapsipinicon River, and Otter Creek.

Flood of June 15-17, 1998, Nishnabotna and East Nishnabotna Rivers, Southwest Iowa, HR-140

Record flooding occurred June 15-17, 1998, in the Nishnabotna and East Nishnabotna River basins following severe thunderstorm activity over southwest Iowa. More than 8 inches of rain fell over a large part of Cass County. The rain gage at Atlantic, Iowa recorded a 24-hour total rainfall of 13.18 inches, which established a new official State record for the greatest amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period. The peak discharge was 41,400 cubic feet per second in the East Nishnabotna River near Atlantic, 60,500 cubic feet per second in the East Nishnabotna River at Red Oak, and 65,100 cubic feet per second in the Nishnabotna River above Hamburg. The peak discharge at Atlantic was greater than the theoretical 200-year flood and the peak discharges at Red Oak and Hamburg were greater than the respective theoretical 500-year floods. Information about the basin, the rain storms, the flooding, and a profile of high water marks at selected intervals along the Nishnabotna and East Nishnabotna Rivers are presented in this report.