Banking in Crisis: The Rise and Fall of British Banking Stability, 1800 to the Present

Can the lessons of the past help us to prevent another banking collapse in the future? This is the first book to tell the story of the rise and fall of British banking stability in the past two centuries, and it sheds new light on why banking systems crash and the factors underpinning banking stability. John Turner shows that there were only two major banking crises in Britain during this time: the crisis of 1825–6 and the Great Crash of 2007–8. Although there were episodic bouts of instability in the interim, the banking system was crisis-free. Why was the British banking system stable for such a long time and why did the British banking system implode in 2008? In answering these questions, the book explores the long-run evolution of bank regulation, the role of the Bank of England, bank rescues and the need to hold shareholders to account.

Foraging trip time-activity budgets and reproductive success in the black-legged kittiwake

Seabirds are central place foragers during the breeding season and, as marine food resources are often patchily distributed, flexibility in foraging behaviour may be important in maintaining prey delivery rates to chicks. We developed a methodological approach using a combination of GPS data loggers and temperature-depth recorders that allowed us to describe the behaviour of surface-feeding seabirds. Specifically, we tested whether differences in foraging behaviour of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla could be linked with reproductive success by comparing 2 consecutive years at 2 sites. At Rathlin Island (Northern Ireland) during 2010, foraging differed markedly from that during 2009 and from that at Lambay Island (Republic of Ireland) during both years. Birds exhibited foraging trips of greater duration, travelled a greater total distance, spent more time in transit and spent longer recuperating on the surface of the water. This notable shift was associated with a decline in breeding success, with greater loss of eggs to predation and lower prey delivery rates, resulting in the starvation of 15 % of chicks. We suggest that food resources were reduced or geographically less accessible during 2010, with suitable foraging areas located further from the colony. Birds did not invest greater amounts of time attempting to catch prey. Thus, our results indicate that kittiwakes at Rathlin modulated their foraging behaviour not by increasing foraging effort through feeding more intensively within prey patches but by extending their range to increase the probability of encountering more profitable prey patches. © Inter-Research 2012.

Governing Ireland:From Cabinet Government to Delegated Governance

The structures of Irish government were once considered reliably stable, professional and efficient. The economic crash of 2008 swept away all such sureties. How did we fail to foresee the challenges and avert a crisis that has undermined the state in every respect? Initial explanations have focused on the absence of robust mechanisms to challenge policy, a lack of imagination and expertise in policy design, and inadequacies in policy implementation and evaluation. Others still have pointed to the inability of traditional structures of decision-making and oversight to manage the multidimensional nature of modern policy problems, as well as an increasingly complex administrative system.

This new book offers a fresh and sustained scrutiny of the Irish system of national government. It examines the cabinet, the departments of Finance and the Taoiseach, ministerial relationships with civil servants, the growth and decline of agencies, the executive's relationship with Dáil Éireann and other monitoring agencies, the impact of the European Union, the courts, the media and social partnership. Distinguished academics are brought together in this volume to reassess Irish governance structures in the context of much greater diversity in policy processes and delegation in government. The book is essential reading for anyone interested in how the Irish state is governed, including practitioners and students of Irish politics.

Identifying optimal feeding habitat and proposed Marine Protected Areas (pMPAs) for the black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) suggests a need for complementary management approaches

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important conservation tool. For marine predators, recent research has focused on the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to identify proposed sites. We used a maximum entropy modelling approach based on static and dynamic oceanographic parameters to determine optimal feeding habitat for black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) at two colonies during two consecutive breeding seasons (2009 and 2010). A combination of Geographic Positioning System (GPS) loggers and Time-Depth Recorders (TDRs) attributed feeding activity to specific locations. Feeding areas were <30 km from the colony, <40 km from land, in productive waters, 25–175m deep. The predicted extent of optimal habitat declined at both colonies between 2009 and 2010 coincident with declines in reproductive success. Whilst the area of predicted optimal habitat changed, its location was spatially stable between years. There was a close match between observed feeding locations and habitat predicted as optimal at one colony (Lambay Island, Republic of Ireland), but a notable mismatch at the other (Rathlin Island, Northern Ireland). Designation of an MPA at Rathlin may, therefore, be less effective than a similar designation at Lambay perhaps due to the inherent variability in currents and sea state in the North Channel compared to the comparatively stable conditions in the central Irish Sea. Current strategies for designating MPAs do not accommodate likely future redistribution of resources due to climate change. We advocate the development of new approaches including dynamic MPAs that track changes in optimal habitat and non-colony specific ecosystem management.

Intergenerational Solidarity and Justice in Ireland: towards a new national dialogue

Gross domestic product plummets. Unemployment soars. Large-scale emigration reemerges after a decade of labor-market driven immigration. The International Monetary Fund and European Union are called to bail out the economy. Indebtedness haunts households in the aftermath of a spectacular housing market crash. The Celtic Tiger is firmly consigned to history books as Ireland’s economic fortunes have waned with unprecedented rapidity. The trials of the economy and policy are highly visible in the media and political debates. However, we know little about how these public travails are reflected in the private sphere where the recession is translated into mass emigration of young workers, defaults on mortgages, former twoearner households turning into no-earner families, and cutbacks in health and social care services that leave many younger and older citizens without the supports on which they could rely.

A scaling method for modelling the crashworthiness of novel roadside barrier designs

In this paper, a novel method for modelling a scaled vehicle–barrier crash test similar to the 20◦ angled barrier test specified in EN 1317 is reported. The intended application is for proof-of-concept evaluation of novel roadside barrier designs, and as a cost-effective precursor to full-scale testing or detailed computational modelling. The method is based on the combination of the conservation of energy law and the equation of motion of a spring mass system representing the impact, and shows, for the first time, the feasibility of applying classical scaling theories to evaluation of roadside barrier design. The scaling method is used to set the initial velocity of the vehicle in the scaled test and to provide scaling factors to convert the measured vehicle accelerations in the scaled test to predicted full-scale accelerations. These values can then be used to calculate the Acceleration Severity Index score of the barrier for a full-scale test. The theoretical validity of the method is demonstrated by comparison to numerical simulations of scaled and full-scale angled barrier impacts using multibody analysis implemented in the crash simulation software MADYMO. Results show a maximum error of 0.3% ascribable to the scaling method.

Gabions: evaluation of potential as low-cost roadside barriers

This paper evaluates the potential of gabions as roadside safety barriers. Gabions have the capacity to blend into natural landscape, suggesting that they could be used as a safety barrier for low-volume road in scenic environments. In fact, gabions have already been used for this purpose in Nepal, but the impact response was not evaluated. This paper reports on numerical and experimental investigations performed on a new gabion barrier prototype. To assess the potential use as a roadside barrier, the optimal gabion unit size and mass were investigated using multibody analysis and four sets of 1:4 scaled crash tests were carried out to study the local vehicle-barrier interaction. The barrier prototype was then finalised and subjected to a TB31 crash test according to the European EN1317 standard for N1 safety barriers. The test resulted in a failure due to the rollover of the vehicle and tearing of the gabion mesh yielding a large working width. It was found that although the system potentially has the necessary mass to contain a vehicle, the barrier front face does not have the necessary stiffness and strength to contain the gabion stone filling and hence redirect the vehicle. In the EN1317 test, the gabion barrier acted as a ramp for the impacting vehicle, causing rollover. 

Explaining the Stunted Rise of Macroprudential Regulatory Philosophies

In the aftermath of the financial crash of 2008, policy makers operating in international financial regulatory networks discovered macroprudential regulation (MPR), but macroprudential regulation has had a stunted or arrested development that can be explained with reference to five factors that are recounted in this article

Macroprudential Ideas and Contested Social Purpose: A Response to Terrence Casey

In response to Terrence Casey's argument that the emergence of macroprudential regulation since the financial crash can and should save neoliberalism we raise five objections. 1). The Debt-Driven Growth Hypothesis (DDG) and the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), as Casey terms them, are just as likely to be complementary as they are oppositional and they are by no means incompatible. 2) Casey's empirics are too thin and static, drawn from the 1980s and 1990s, while Anglo Liberal Financialised Capitalism (ALFC) is a complex adaptive system that has continued to evolve throughout the 2000s. 3) Casey overlooks the dynamic relationship between potentially excessive financialisation and the performance of the wider economy, which is becoming a growing concern for many policy makers using the macroprudential frame. 4) Macroprudential as a series of ideas about the economy are often incompatible with neoliberal premises and their ontological foundations. 5) Many of the policy makers who have acted as the biggest champions of macroprudential regulation have also been highly critical of ALFC and view the macroprudential turn as making a contribution to a much needed deeper financial reformation that would over time transform some of the constituent economic and social relations of the existing political economy. We conclude that what we call the social purpose of macroprudential regulation (the question of whether it is intended to patch up or transform the existing system) is contested, and that macroprudential regulation has much potential beyond saving ‘neoliberalism’.

Varieties of Economic Crisis, Varieties of Ideational Change: How and Why Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Regulation Differ

One of the principal tasks facing post-crash academic political economy is to analyse patterns of ideational change and the conditions that produce such change. What has been missing from the existing literature on ideational change at times of crises however, is a sense of how processes of persuasive struggle, and how the success of those ‘norm entrepreneurs’ arguing for ideational change is shaped by two contextual variables: the most immediate material symptoms and problems that a crisis displays (the variety of crisis); and the institutional character of the policy subsystem that agents have to operate within to affect change. Introducing these two variables into our accounts of persuasive struggle and ideational change enables us to deepen our understanding of the dynamics of ideational change at times of crisis. The article identifies that a quite rapid and radical intellectual change has been evident in the field of financial regulation in the form of an embrace of a macroprudential frame. In contrast in the field of macroeconomic policy - both monetary and fiscal policy, many pre-crash beliefs remain prominent, there is evidence of ideational stickiness and inertia, and despite some policy experimentation, overarching policy frameworks and their rationales have not been overhauled. The article applies Peter Hall’s framework of three orders of policy changes to help illuminate and explain the variation in patterns of change in the fields of financial regulation and macroeconomic policy since the financial crash of 2008. The different patterns of ideational change in macroeconomic policy and financial regulation in the post-crash period can be explained by timing and variety of crisis; sequencing of policy change; and institutional political differences between micro policy sub systems and macro policy systems.

The G20 and Monetary Policy Stasis

Since the financial crash of 2008 monetary policy has been in a state of stasis – a condition in which things are not changing, moving, or progressing, but rather appear frozen. Interest rates have been frozen at low levels for a considerable period time. Inflation targets have consistently been missed, through phases of both overshooting and undershooting. At the same time, a variety of unconventional monetary policies involving asset purchases and liquidity provision have been pursued. Questions have been raised from a variety of sources, including various international organizations, covering distinct BIS and IMF positions about the continuing validity and sustainability of existing monetary policy frameworks, not least because inflation targeting has ceased to act as reliable guide for policy for over six years. Despite this central banks have been reluctant to debate moving to a new formal policy framework. This article argues that as an apex policy forum only the G20 leaders’ summits has the necessary political authority to call their central banks to account and initiate a wide ranging debate on the future of monetary policy. A case is made for convening a monetary policy working group to discuss a range of positions, including those of the BIS and IMF, and to make recommendations, because the G20 has been most effective in displaying international financial leadership, when leaders have convened and made use of specialist working groups.

Pattern Recognition Approach for Road Collision Hotspots Analysis: Case Study of Northern Ireland

In order to address road safety effectively, it is essential to understand all the factors, which
attribute to the occurrence of a road collision. This is achieved through road safety
assessment measures, which are primarily based on historical crash data. Recent advances
in uncertain reasoning technology have led to the development of robust machine learning
techniques, which are suitable for investigating road traffic collision data. These techniques
include supervised learning (e.g. SVM) and unsupervised learning (e.g. Cluster Analysis).
This study extends upon previous research work, carried out in Coll et al. [3], which
proposed a non-linear aggregation framework for identifying temporal and spatial hotspots.
The results from Coll et al. [3] identified Lisburn area as the hotspot, in terms of road safety,
in Northern Ireland. This study aims to use Cluster Analysis, to investigate and highlight any
hidden patterns associated with collisions that occurred in Lisburn area, which in turn, will
provide more clarity in the causation factors so that appropriate countermeasures can be put
in place.

Deglacial mesophotic reef demise on the Great Barrier Reef

Submerged reefs are important recorders of palaeo-environments and sea-level change, and provide a substrate for modern mesophotic (deep-water, light-dependent) coral communities. Mesophotic reefs are rarely, if ever, described from the fossil record and nothing is known of their long-term record on Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Sedimentological and palaeo-ecological analyses coupled with 67 14C AMS and U–Th radiometric dates from dredged coral, algae and bryozoan specimens, recovered from depths of 45 to 130 m, reveal two distinct generations of fossil mesophotic coral community development on the submerged shelf edge reefs of the GBR. They occurred from 13 to 10 ka and 8 ka to present. We identified eleven sedimentary facies representing both autochthonous (in situ) and allochthonous (detrital) genesis, and their palaeo-environmental settings have been interpreted based on their sedimentological characteristics, biological assemblages, and the distribution of similar modern biota within the dredges. Facies on the shelf edge represent deep sedimentary environments, primarily forereef slope and open platform settings in palaeo-water depths of 45–95 m. Two coral–algal assemblages and one non-coral encruster assemblage were identified: 1) Massive and tabular corals including Porites, Montipora and faviids associated with Lithophylloids and minor Mastophoroids, 2) platy and encrusting corals including Porites, Montipora and Pachyseris associated with melobesioids and Sporolithon, and 3) Melobesiods and Sporolithon with acervulinids (foraminifera) and bryozoans. Based on their modern occurrence on the GBR and Coral Sea and modern specimens collected in dredges, these are interpreted as representing palaeo-water depths of < 60 m, < 80–100 m and > 100 m respectively. The first mesophotic generation developed at modern depths of 85–130 m from 13 to 10.2 ka and exhibit a deepening succession of < 60 to > 100 m palaeo-water depth through time. The second generation developed at depths of 45–70 m on the shelf edge from 7.8 ka to present and exhibit stable environmental conditions through time. The apparent hiatus that interrupted the mesophotic coral communities coincided with the timing of modern reef initiation on the GBR as well as a wide-spread flux of siliciclastic sediments from the shelf to the basin. For the first time we have observed the response of mesophotic reef communities to millennial scale environmental perturbations, within the context of global sea-level rise and environmental changes.

Myopia, spectacle wear, and risk of bicycle accidents among rural Chinese secondary school students: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 7.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of myopia and spectacle wear on bicycle-related injuries in rural Chinese students. Myopia is common among Chinese students but few studies have examined its effect on daily activities. METHODS: Data on visual acuity, refractive error, current spectacle wear, and history of bicycle use and accidents during the past 3 years were sought from 1891 students undergoing eye examinations in rural Guangdong province. RESULTS: Refractive and accident data were available for 1539 participants (81.3%), among whom the mean age was 14.6 years, 52.5% were girls, 26.8% wore glasses, and 12.9% had myopia of less than -4 diopters in both eyes. More than 90% relied on bicycles to get to school daily. A total of 2931 accidents were reported by 423 participants, with 68 requiring medical attention. Male sex (odds ratio, 1.55; P < .001) and spectacle wear (odds ratio, 1.38; P = .04) were associated with a higher risk of accident, but habitual visual acuity and myopia were unassociated with the crash risk, after adjusting for age, sex, time spent riding, and risky riding behaviors. CONCLUSION: These results may be consistent with data on motor vehicle accidents implicating peripheral vision (potentially compromised by spectacle wear) more strongly than central visual acuity in mediating crash risk.

Assessment of the impact speed and angle conditions for the EN1317 barrier tests

Roadside safety barriers designs are tested with passenger cars in Europe using standard EN1317 in which the impact angle for normal, high and very high containment level tests is 20°. In comparison to EN1317, the US standard MASH has higher impact angles for cars and pickups (25°) and different vehicle masses. Studies in Europe (RISER) and the US have shown values for the 90th percentile impact angle of 30°–34°. Thus, the limited evidence available suggests that the 20° angle applied in EN 1317 may be too low.
The first goal of this paper is to use the US NCHRP database (Project NCHRP 17–22) to assess the distribution of impact angle and collision speed in recent ROR accidents. Second, based on the findings of the statistical analysis and on analysis of impact angles and speeds in the literature, an LS-DYNA finite element analysis was carried out to evaluate the normal containment level of concrete barriers in non-standard collisions. The FE model was validated against a crash test of a portable concrete barrier carried out at the UK Transport Research Laboratory (TRL).
The accident data analysis for run-off road accidents indicates that a substantial proportion of accidents have an impact angle in excess of 20°. The baseline LS-DYNA model showed good comparison with experimental acceleration severity index (ASI) data and the parametric analysis indicates a very significant influence of impact angle on ASI. Accordingly, a review of European run-off road accidents and the configuration of EN 1317 should be performed.