With Good Reputation Size Does not Matter: Issue Frequency and the Determinants of Debt Maturity

This paper examines empirically the effect firm reputation has on the determinants of debt maturity. Utilising data from European primary bond market between 1999 and 2005, I find that the maturity choice of issuers with a higher reputation is less sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, market credit risk-premiums, prevailing firm credit quality and size of the debt issue. The annualised coupon payments are shown to be a significant factor in determining the debt maturity and reveal a monotonously increasing relationship between credit quality and debt maturity once controlled for. Finally, I show that issuers lacking a credit rating have an implied credit quality positioned between investment-grade and speculative-grade debt.

Kalman Filter Algorithm for Rating and Prediction in Basketball

The Thesis presents a state-space model for a basketball league and a Kalman filter algorithm for the estimation of the state of the league. In the state-space model, each of the basketball teams is associated with a rating that represents its strength compared to the other teams. The ratings are assumed to evolve in time following a stochastic process with independent Gaussian increments. The estimation of the team ratings is based on the observed game scores that are assumed to depend linearly on the true strengths of the teams and independent Gaussian noise. The team ratings are estimated using a recursive Kalman filter algorithm that produces least squares optimal estimates for the team strengths and predictions for the scores of the future games. Additionally, if the Gaussianity assumption holds, the predictions given by the Kalman filter maximize the likelihood of the observed scores. The team ratings allow probabilistic inference about the ranking of the teams and their relative strengths as well as about the teams’ winning probabilities in future games. The predictions about the winners of the games are correct 65-70% of the time. The team ratings explain 16% of the random variation observed in the game scores. Furthermore, the winning probabilities given by the model are concurrent with the observed scores. The state-space model includes four independent parameters that involve the variances of noise terms and the home court advantage observed in the scores. The Thesis presents the estimation of these parameters using the maximum likelihood method as well as using other techniques. The Thesis also gives various example analyses related to the American professional basketball league, i.e., National Basketball Association (NBA), and regular seasons played in year 2005 through 2010. Additionally, the season 2009-2010 is discussed in full detail, including the playoffs.

Current State of Domestic Concealed Wiring Practices in Bangalore, India

In a modernising world, building and construction trends in recent urban centres such as Bangalore, set precedence for developments in other urban centres of the country. Under such conditions, evaluating the current state of building practices could prove useful for identifying the likely nature of nationwide building trends. This paper comprises a study to evaluate the current state of domestic concealed wiring practices in the context of a modern urban centre area in India. Presently, concealed wiring is the predominant wiring method adopted for residences, both bungalows and apartments. A modern residential block in the city of Bangalore (India) was chosen as the study area. The study included extensive interaction and surveys amongst residents, professionals (architects and engineers) and site personnel (contractors and electricians). In addition, the study also included site verification on the state of wiring practices in the residential block. The study indicates that while aesthetics was the prime reason that dictated the choice of concealed wiring, its effectiveness as an appropriate and safe wiring method is severely compromised. Details of the study, results and recommendations are presented in this paper.

The Role of Electronic Word of Mouth in Shaping Consumer Attitudes

The purpose of this research was to investigate the role of electronic word of mouth (eWOM) in shaping consumer attitudes towards various products and services with concentration on the consumer attitude change. eWOM has long been proven to play an important role in influencing consumer attitudes and has been researched from a variety of perspectives. This study attempts to look deeper into the process of consumer attitude change by applying as the central theory of the study the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion by Petty and Cacioppo. In the processes of examining the background academic and empirical research the Internet and Web 2.0 are closely depicted in order to understand how throughout the past centuries technology allowed the rise of various mediums where consumers can not only share their opinions online about products and services but also communicate with other consumers. Manuel Castel’s Internet Galaxy, Gildin’s, Carl and Noland’s, Hennig-Thurau, Gwinner, Walsh and Gremler’s researches on eWOM are the central works that helped to shape both the theoretical and empirical parts of this study. The mixed method approach was chosen as a research method for this study. An online survey was conducted via the Surveymonkey.com platform and eight qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted. The results of the study show that central route queues as text quality and text argumentativeness are more prominent among the research subjects and the peripheral route queues: source credibility and source expertise did not show considerable significance. Also more experience and participation consumers have with user-rating websites and applications more inclined they are to elaborate on the central route cues and are more likely to search for opinions that they consider rational and credible. Also these respondents are less inclined to search for ratings that confirm their existing beliefs about products or services. Less experience/participation they have about eWOM more likely they are to search for reviews confirmatory to their own.

Ganga-Brahmaputra river discharge from Jason-2 radar altimetry: An update to the long-term satellite-derived estimates of continental freshwater forcing flux into the Bay of Bengal

This paper discusses the use of Jason-2 radar altimeter measurements to estimate the Ganga-Brahmaputra surface freshwater flux into the Bay of Bengal for the period mid-2008 to December 2011. A previous estimate was generated for 1993-2008 using TOPEX-Poseidon, ERS-2 and ENVISAT, and is now extended using Jason-2. To take full advantages of the new availability of in situ rating curves, the processing scheme is adapted and the adjustments of the methodology are discussed here. First, using a large sample of in situ river height measurements, we estimate the standard error of Jason-2-derived water levels over the Ganga and the Brahmaputra to be respectively of 0.28 m and 0.19 m, or less than similar to 4% of the annual peak-to-peak variations of these two rivers. Using the in situ rating curves between water levels and river discharges, we show that Jason-2 accurately infers Ganga and Brahmaputra instantaneous discharges for 2008-2011 with mean errors ranging from similar to 2180 m(3)/s (6.5%) over the Brahmaputra to similar to 1458 m(3)/s (13%) over the Ganga. The combined Ganga-Brahmaputra monthly discharges meet the requirements of acceptable accuracy (15-20%) with a mean error of similar to 16% for 2009-2011 and similar to 17% for 1993-2011. The Ganga-Brahmaputra monthly discharge at the river mouths is then presented, showing a marked interannual variability with a standard deviation of similar to 12500 m(3)/s, much larger than the data set uncertainty. Finally, using in situ sea surface salinity observations, we illustrate the possible impact of extreme continental freshwater discharge event on the northern Bay of Bengal as observed in 2008.

ADAPTATION OF MW LEVEL NATURAL GAS LEAN BURN ENGINE FOR PRODUCER GAS OPERATION A GRID CONNECTED POWER PLANT

Availability of producer gas engines at MW being limited necessitates to adapt engine from natural gas operation. The present work focus on the development of necessary kit for adapting a 12 cylinder lean burn turbo-charged natural gas engine rated at 900 kWe (Waukesha make VHP5904LTD) to operate on producer and set up an appropriate capacity biomass gasification system for grid linked power generation in Thailand. The overall plant configuration had fuel processing, drying, reactor, cooling and cleaning system, water treatment, engine generator and power evacuation. The overall project is designed for evacuation of 1.5 MWe power to the state grid and had 2 gasification system with the above configuration and 3 engines. Two gasification system each designed for about 1100 kg/hr of woody biomass was connected to the engine using a producer gas carburetor for the necessary Air to fuel ratio control. In the use of PG to fuel IC engines, it has been recognized that the engine response will differ as compared to the response with conventional fueled operation due to the differences in the thermo-physical properties of PG. On fuelling a conventional engine with PG, power de-rating can be expected due to the lower calorific value (LCV), lower adiabatic flame temperature (AFT) and the lower than unity product to reactant more ratio. Further the A/F ratio for producer gas is about 1/10th that of natural gas and requires a different carburetor for engine operation. The research involved in developing a carburetor for varying load conditions. The patented carburetor is based on area ratio control, consisting of a zero pressure regulator and a separate gas and air line along with a mixing zone. The 95 litre engine at 1000 rpm has an electrical efficiency of 33.5 % with a heat input of 2.62 MW. Each engine had two carburetors designed for producer gas flow each capable of handling about 1200 m3/hr in order to provide similar engine heat input at a lower conversion efficiency. Cold flow studies simulating the engine carburetion system results showed that the A/F was maintained in the range of 1.3 +/- 0.1 over the entire flow range. Initially, the gasification system was tested using woody biomass and the gas composition was found to be CO 15 +/- 1.5 % H-2 22 +/- 2% CH4 2.2 +/- 0.5 CO2 11.25 +/- 1.4 % and rest N-2, with the calorific value in the range of 5.0 MJ/kg. After initial trials on the engine to fine tune the control system and adjust various engine operating parameter a peak load of 800 kWe was achieved, while a stable operating conditions was found to be at 750 kWe which is nearly 85 % of the natural gas rating. The specific fuel consumption was found to be 0.9 kg of biomass per kWh.

BIOCARDS AND LEVEL OF ABSTRACTION

Biocards are formal descriptions of biological phenomena and their underlying functional principles. They are used in bioinspired design to document search results and to communicate the findings for use in the further design process. The present study explored the effect of abstraction level used in biocards. This was done in two workshops conducted with design students in Denmark and India. Students were given a design assignment and instructions for how to perform the BID ideation work. Half of the students were given biocards with abstract descriptions while the other half got biocards with concrete descriptions. The novelty of found solutions was evaluated by the students by rating novelty of each solution on a scale from 1 to 5. Mean values for abstract descriptions were 0,3 higher than for concrete descriptions indicating that more innovative solutions were found when students used biocards with abstract descriptions compared to concrete descriptions. The difference in mean value is significant with a confidence level better than 1%. It seems likely that more abstract descriptions in biocards helps avoiding design fixation in biomimetic design work.

Case Study: Influence Of Morphological Changes On Flooding In Jingjiang River

The middle reach of the Yangtze River, customarily called the Jingjiang River, together with its diversion channels and Dongting Lake, form a large complicated drainage system. In the last five decades, significant geomorphological changes have occurred in the drainage system, including the shrinkage of diversion channels, contraction of Dongting Lake, changes in the rating curve at the Luoshan station, and cutoffs of the lower Jingjiang River. These changes are believed to be the cause of the occurrence of abnormal floods in the Jingjiang River. Qualitative analyses suggest that the first three factors aggravate the flood situation in the lower Jingjiang River, while the last factor seems beneficial for flood prevention. To quantitatively evaluate these conclusions, a finite-volume numerical model was constructed. A series of numerical simulations were carried out to test the individual and combined effects of the aforementioned four factors, and these simulations showed that high flood stages in the Jingjiang River clearly are related to the geomorphological changes.

Number of prior episodes and the presence of depressive symptoms are associated with longer length of stay for patients with acute manic episodes

Background: Few studies have analyzed predictors of length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted due to acute bipolar manic episodes. The purpose of the present study was to estimate LOS and to determine the potential sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with a longer hospitalization. Such information could be useful to identify those patients at high risk for long LOS and to allocate them to special treatments, with the aim of optimizing their hospital management. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study recruiting adult patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR) criteria) who had been hospitalized due to an acute manic episode with a Young Mania Rating Scale total score greater than 20. Bivariate correlational and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of LOS. Results: A total of 235 patients from 44 centers were included in the study. The only factors that were significantly associated to LOS in the regression model were the number of previous episodes and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score at admission (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with a high number of previous episodes and those with depressive symptoms during mania are more likely to stay longer in hospital. Patients with severe depressive symptoms may have a more severe or treatment-resistant course of the acute bipolar manic episode.

A Method for siting and prioritizing the removal of derelict vessels in Florida Coastal Waters: test applications in the Florida Keys

Increased boating activities and new waterfront developments have contributed an estimated 3,000 dismantled, abandoned, junked, wrecked, derelict vessels to Florida coastal waters. This report outlines a method of siting and prioritizing derelict vessel removal using the Florida Keys as a test area. The data base was information on 240 vessels, obtained from Florida Marine Patrol files. Vessel location was plotted on 1:250,000 regional and 1:5,000 and 1:12,000 site maps. Type of vessel, length, hull material, engine, fuel tanks, overall condition, afloat and submerged characteristics, and accessibility, were used to derive parametric site indices of removal priority and removal difficulty. Results indicate 59 top priority cases which should be the focus of immediate clean up efforts in the Florida Keys. Half of these cases are rated low to moderate in removal difficulty; the remainder are difficult to remove. Removal difficulty is a surrogate for removal cost: low difficulty -low cost, high difficulty - high cost. The rating scheme offers coastal planners options of focusing removal operations either on (1) specific areas with clusters of high priority derelict vessels or on (2) selected targeted derelicts at various, specific locations. (PDF has 59 pages.)

Análisis del mercado del rating de las emisiones de titulación en España (1993-2011)

[ES] La calificación crediticia externa es un elemento clave para el buen fin de las operaciones de titulización. No obstante, las agencias de calificación han sido objeto de una intensa controversia, cuestionándose su fiabilidad y objetividad. En este trabajo abundamos en esta cuestión, analizando la distribución de los ratings otorgados a las emisiones de bonos de titulización llevadas a cabo en España (1993-2011), uno de los países más activos en cuanto al volumen de emisiones, llegaron a ocupar el segundo puesto a nivel europeo y el tercero a nivel mundial. Aportamos evidencia sobre ciertas anomalías entre las que cabe destacar la estructura oligopolística del mercado del rating, la fragilidad desde una perspectiva histórica de las calificaciones otorgadas, y la existencia de patrones no homogéneos en la elección de la agencia de calificación, tanto si se tiene en cuenta la sociedad gestora, como el colateral de respaldo.

Multirating decision model validation: the relevance of the quality of the securitization issues

Rating enables the information asymmetry existing in the issuer-investor relationship to be reduced, particularly for issues with a high degree of complexity, as is the case of securitizations. However, there may be a serious conflict of interest between the issuer’s choice and remuneration of the agency and the credit rating awarded, resulting in lower quality and information power of the published rating. In this paper, we propose an explicative model of the number of ratings requested, by analyzing the relevance of the number of ratings to measure the reliability, where multirating is shown to be associated to the quality, size, liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry relating to the issue. Thus, we consider that the regulatory changes that foster the widespread publication of simultaneous ratings could help to alleviate the problem of rating model arbitrage and the crisis of confidence in credit ratings in general and in the securitization issues, in particular.

Assessing the accessibility of everyday products

If a product is being designed to be genuinely inclusive, then the designers need to be able to assess the level of exclusion of the product that they are working on and to identify possible areas of improvement. To be of practical use, the assessments need to be quick, consistent and repeatable. The aim of this workshop is to invite attendees to participate in the evaluation of a number of everyday objects using an assessment technique being considered by the workshop organisers. The objectives of the workshop include evaluating the effectiveness of the assessment method, evaluating the accessibility of the products being assessed and to suggest revisions to the assessment scales being used. The assessment technique is to be based on the ONS capability measures [1]. This source recognises fourteen capability scales of which seven are particularly pertinent to product evaluation, namely: motion, dexterity, reach and stretch, vision, hearing, communication, and intellectual functioning. Each of these scales ranges from 0 (fully able) through 1 (minimal impairment) to 10 (severe impairment). The attendees will be asked to rate the products on these scales. Clearly the assessed accessibility of the product depends on the assumptions made about the context of use. The attendees will be asked to clearly note the assumptions that they are making about the context in which the product is being assessed. For instance, with a hot water bottle, assumptions have to be made about the availability of hot water and these can affect the overall accessibility rating. The workshop organisers will not specify the context of use as the aim is to identify how assessors would use the assessment method in the real world. The objects being assessed will include items such as remote controls, pill bottles, food packaging, hot water bottles and mobile telephones. the attendees will be encouraged to assess two or more products in detail. Helpers will be on hand to assist and observe the assessments. The assessments will be collated and compared and feedback about the assessment method sought from the attendees. Drawing on a preliminary review of the assessment results, initial conclusions will be presented at the end of the workshop. More detailed analyses will be made available in subsequent proceedings. It is intended that the workshop will provide workshop attendees with an opportunity to perform hands-on assessment of a number everyday products and identify features which are inclusive and those that are not. It is also intended to encourage an appreciation of the capabilities to be considered when evaluating accessibility.

A colorimetric determination of hydrocyanic acid

The object of this investigation is to devise a rapid, fairly accurate, colorimetric analysis for HCN to be used in field work for determining instantaneous concentrations of the gas under fumigating canvas. A large amount of money is expended yearly by the citrus industry of this state in attempting to control and to eradicate the scale pests. Although fumigation with HCN has been practiced tor many years, the progress made has been anything but satisfactory. The greater portion of the work has always been carried on by contractors, who in a large number of cases have been very unscrupulous. The materials and labor are very expensive and the growers have been satisfied to adhere to beaten paths and hope for the best results on scale kill with the least attendant foliage injury. One familiar with fumigating, either from the grower's or the operator's viewpoint, knows that very widely varying results are obtained, even under what are apparently identical condition. Even after discounting for the dishonesty of some operators and the prejudices of the grower, there is still a large variance between desired or expected results and those actually obtained.