Risk-management of UAS robust autonomy for its integration into civil aviation safety frameworks

This paper discusses a model of the civil aviation reg- ulation framework and shows how the current assess- ment of reliability and risk for piloted aircraft has limited applicability for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) with high levels of autonomous decision mak- ing. Then, a new framework for risk management of robust autonomy is proposed, which arises from combining quantified measures of risk with normative decision making. The term Robust Autonomy de- scribes the ability of an autonomous system to either continue or abort its operation whilst not breaching a minimum level of acceptable safety in the presence of anomalous conditions. The decision making associ- ated with risk management requires quantifying prob- abilities associated with the measures of risk and also consequences of outcomes related to the behaviour of autonomy. The probabilities are computed from an assessment under both nominal and anomalous sce- narios described by faults, which can be associated with the aircraft’s actuators, sensors, communication link, changes in dynamics, and the presence of other aircraft in the operational space. The consequences of outcomes are characterised by a loss function which rewards the certification decision

Analysis of genetically modified red-fleshed apples reveals effects on growth and consumer attributes

Consumers of whole foods, such as fruits, demand consistent high quality and seek varieties with enhanced health properties, convenience or novel taste. We have raised the polyphenolic content of apple by genetic engineering of the anthocyanin pathway using the apple transcription factor MYB10. These apples have very high concentrations of foliar, flower and fruit anthocyanins, especially in the fruit peel. Independent lines were examined for impacts on tree growth, photosynthesis and fruit characteristics. Fruit were analysed for changes in metabolite and transcript levels. Fruit were also used in taste trials to study the consumer perception of such a novel apple. No negative taste attributes were associated with the elevated anthocyanins. Modification with this one gene provides near isogenic material and allows us to examine the effects on an established cultivar, with a view to enhancing consumer appeal independently of other fruit qualities. © 2012 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Interaction of psychosocial risk factors explain increased neck problems among female office workers

This study investigated the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and (1) neck symptoms and (2) neck pain and disability as measured by the neck disability index (NDI). Female office workers employed in local private and public organizations were invited to participate, with 333 completing a questionnaire. Data were collected on various risk factors including age, negative affectivity, history of previous neck trauma, physical work environment, and task demands. Sixty-one percent of the sample reported neck symptoms lasting greater than 8 days in the last 12 months. The mean NDI of the sample was 15.5 out of 100, indicating mild neck pain and disability. In a hierarchical multivariate logistic regression, low supervisor support was the only psychosocial risk factor identified with the presence of neck symptoms. Similarly, low supervisor support was the only factor associated with the score on the NDI. These associations remained after adjustment for potential confounders of age, negative affectivity, and physical risk factors. The interaction of job demands, decision authority, and supervisor support was significantly associated with the NDI in the final model and this association increased when those with previous trauma were excluded. Interestingly, and somewhat contrary to initial expectations, as job demands increased, high decision authority had an increasing effect on the NDI when supervisor support was low.

Associations between individual and workplace risk factors for self-reported neck pain and disability among female office workers

A cross-sectional survey of female office workers (n=333) was undertaken to determine the level of neck pain and disability (Neck Disability Index—NDI) and to explore the relationship between individual and workplace risk factors with the NDI score and the presence of pain. Workers reported nil (32%), mild (53%), moderate (14%) and severe (1%) neck pain. There were more risk factors associated with the NDI score than the presence of neck pain. The presence of neck pain was associated with a history of neck trauma (OR: 4.8), using a graduated lens (OR: 4.6), and negative affectivity (OR: 2.7) in the multiple regression model. Factors associated with higher NDI score were using the computer mouse for more than 6 h per day, higher negative affectivity, older age and an uncomfortable workstation. These results suggest that measuring the level of neck pain and disability rather than just the presence of neck pain provides more specific directives for the prevention and management of this disorder.

Liability in negligence and the failure to disclose multiple risks in surgery : I would have been willing to run the risk

It has been 21 years since the decision in Rogers v Whitaker and the legal principles concerning informed consent and liability for negligence are still strongly grounded in this landmark High Court decision. This paper considers more recent developments in the law concerning the failure to disclose inherent risks in medical procedures, focusing on the decision in Wallace v Kam [2013] HCA 19. In this case, the appellant underwent a surgical procedure that carried a number of risks. The surgery itself was not performed in a sub-standard way, but the surgeon failed to disclose two risks to the patient, a failure that constituted a breach of the surgeon’s duty of care in negligence. One of the undisclosed risks was considered to be less serious than the other, and this lesser risk eventuated causing injury to the appellant. The more serious risk did not eventuate, but the appellant argued that if the more serious risk had been disclosed, he would have avoided his injuries completely because he would have refused to undergo the procedure. Liability was disputed by the surgeon, with particular reference to causation principles. The High Court of Australia held that the appellant should not be compensated for harm that resulted from a risk he would have been willing to run. We examine the policy reasons underpinning the law of negligence in this specific context and consider some of the issues raised by this unusual case. We question whether some of the judicial reasoning adopted in this case, represents a significant shift in traditional causation principles.

Ecological risk analysis of transgenic plants

Public concern about the safety of many forms of industrial technology are known to be linked to a range of factors including a perceived lack of confidence in regulatory decision making.1 The use of transgenic plants in agriculture may be seen as an issue that could generate similar concern. Criticism has been made about the completeness of knowledge on the potential for aberrant behaviour of genetically manipulated organisms (GMO's) in release environments, and the adequacy of existing pre­‐release screening and assessment methodologies (Goldberg & Tjaden, 1990). Such comments are important because any perceived shortcomings in the pre-release assessment of GMO safety may lead to decreased public support of the technology -­‐and the industry itself...

Obesity and comorbid risk factors for cardiovascular disease among physically inactive patients with musculoskeletal disorders : a targeted intervention for this priority patient group is warranted

Introduction The benefits of physical activity are established and numerous; not the least of which is reduced risk of negative cardiovascular events. While sedentary lifestyles are having negative impacts across populations, people with musculoskeletal disorders may face additional challenges to becoming physically active. Unfortunately, interventions in ambulatory hospital clinics for people with musculoskeletal disorders primarily focus on their presenting musculoskeletal complaint with cursory attention given to lifestyle risk factors; including physical inactivity. This missed opportunity is likely to have both personal costs for patients and economic costs for downstream healthcare funders. Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the presence of obesity, diabetes, diagnosed cardiac conditions, and previous stroke (CVA) among insufficiently physically active patients accessing (non-surgical) ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders to indicate whether a targeted risk-reducing intervention is warranted. Methods A sub-group analysis of patients (n=110) who self-reported undertaking insufficient physical activity level to meet national (Australian) minimum recommended guidelines was conducted. Responses to the Active Australia Survey were used to identify insufficiently active patients from a larger cohort study being undertaken across three (non-surgical) ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Outcomes of interest included body mass index, Type-II diabetes, diagnosed cardiac conditions, previous CVA and patients’ current health-related quality of life (Euroqol-5D). Results The mean (standard deviation) age of inactive patients was 56 (14) years. Body mass index values indicated that n=80 (73%) were overweight n=26 (24%), or obese n=45 (49%). In addition to their presenting condition, a substantial number of patients reported comorbid diabetes n=23 (21%), hypertension n=25 (23%) or an existing heart condition n=14 (13%); 4 (3%) had previously experienced a CVA as well as other comorbid conditions. Health-related quality of life was also substantially impacted, with a mean (standard deviation) multi-attribute utility score of 0.51 (0.32). Conclusion A range of health conditions and risk factors for further negative health events, including cardiovascular complications, consistent with physically inactive lifestyles were evident. A targeted risk-reducing intervention is warranted for this high risk clinical group.

Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Risk mitigation of post-earthquake fire in urban buildings

Post-earthquake fire (PEF) is considered one of the most high risk and complicated problems affecting buildings in urban areas and can cause even more damage than the earthquake itself. However, most standards and codes ignore the implications of PEF and so buildings are not normally designed with PEF in mind. What is needed is for PEF factors to be routinely scrutinized and codified as part of the design process. A systematic application is presented as a means of mitigating the risk of PEF in urban buildings. This covers both existing buildings, in terms of retrofit solutions, and those yet to be designed, where a PEF factor is proposed. To ensure the mitigation strategy meets the defined criteria, a minimum time is defined – the safety guaranteed time target – where the safety of the inhabitants in a building is guaranteed.

Consumer acceptance of Accountable-eHealth systems

In this paper, we present the results of a survey conducted to measure the attitudes of the consumers of eHealth towards Accountable-eHealth systems which are designed for information privacy management. A research model is developed that can identify the factors contributing to system acceptance and is validated using quantitative data from 187 completed survey responses from university students studying non-health related courses at a university in Queensland, Australia. The research model is validated using structural equation modelling and can be used to identify how specific characteristics of Accountable-eHealth systems would affect their overall acceptance by future eHealth consumers.

eHealth-as-a-Service (eHaaS) : a data-driven decision making approach in Australian context

A commitment in 2010 by the Australian Federal Government to spend $466.7 million dollars on the implementation of personally controlled electronic health records (PCEHR) heralded a shift to a more effective and safer patient centric eHealth system. However, deployment of the PCEHR has met with much criticism, emphasised by poor adoption rates over the first 12 months of operation. An indifferent response by the public and healthcare providers largely sceptical of its utility and safety speaks to the complex sociotechnical drivers and obstacles inherent in the embedding of large (national) scale eHealth projects. With government efforts to inflate consumer and practitioner engagement numbers giving rise to further consumer disillusionment, broader utilitarian opportunities available with the PCEHR are at risk. This paper discusses the implications of establishing the PCEHR as the cornerstone of a holistic eHealth strategy for the aggregation of longitudinal patient information. A viewpoint is offered that the real value in patient data lies not just in the collection of data but in the integration of this information into clinical processes within the framework of a commoditised data-driven approach. Consideration is given to the eHealth-as-a-Service (eHaaS) construct as a disruptive next step for co-ordinated individualised healthcare in the Australian context.

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

Integrating understandability in the evaluation of consumer health search engines

In this paper we propose a method that integrates the no- tion of understandability, as a factor of document relevance, into the evaluation of information retrieval systems for con- sumer health search. We consider the gain-discount evaluation framework (RBP, nDCG, ERR) and propose two understandability-based variants (uRBP) of rank biased precision, characterised by an estimation of understandability based on document readability and by different models of how readability influences user understanding of document content. The proposed uRBP measures are empirically contrasted to RBP by comparing system rankings obtained with each measure. The findings suggest that considering understandability along with topicality in the evaluation of in- formation retrieval systems lead to different claims about systems effectiveness than considering topicality alone.

Developing a multidimensional scale of customer-oriented deviance (COD)

Although frontline employees' bending of organizational rules and norms for customers is an important phenomenon, marketing scholars to date only broadly describe over-servicing behaviors and provide little distinction among deviant behavioral concepts. Drawing on research on pro-social and pro-customer behaviors and on studies of positive deviance, this paper develops and validates a multi-faceted, multi-dimensional construct term customer-oriented deviance. Results from two samples totaling 616 frontline employees (FLEs) in the retail and hospitality industries demonstrate that customer-oriented deviance is a four-dimensional construct with sound psychometric properties. Evidence from a test of a theoretical model of key antecedents establishes nomological validity with empathy/perspective-taking, risk-taking propensity, role conflict, and job autonomy as key predictors. Results show that the dimensions of customer-oriented deviance are distinct and have significant implications for theory and practice.

Mapping eQTLs in the Norfolk Island genetic isolate identifies candidate genes for CVD risk traits

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) affects millions of people worldwide and is influenced by numerous factors, including lifestyle and genetics. Expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) influence gene expression and are good candidates for CVD risk. Founder-effect pedigrees can provide additional power to map genes associated with disease risk. Therefore, we identified eQTLs in the genetic isolate of Norfolk Island (NI) and tested for associations between these and CVD risk factors. We measured genome-wide transcript levels of blood lymphocytes in 330 individuals and used pedigree-based heritability analysis to identify heritable transcripts. eQTLs were identified by genome-wide association testing of these transcripts. Testing for association between CVD risk factors (i.e., blood lipids, blood pressure, and body fat indices) and eQTLs revealed 1,712 heritable transcripts (p < 0.05) with heritability values ranging from 0.18 to 0.84. From these, we identified 200 cis-acting and 70 trans-acting eQTLs (p < 1.84 × 10(-7)) An eQTL-centric analysis of CVD risk traits revealed multiple associations, including 12 previously associated with CVD-related traits. Trait versus eQTL regression modeling identified four CVD risk candidates (NAAA, PAPSS1, NME1, and PRDX1), all of which have known biological roles in disease. In addition, we implicated several genes previously associated with CVD risk traits, including MTHFR and FN3KRP. We have successfully identified a panel of eQTLs in the NI pedigree and used this to implicate several genes in CVD risk. Future studies are required for further assessing the functional importance of these eQTLs and whether the findings here also relate to outbred populations.