The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

Towards a framework for managing IT-enabled change, sourcing and governance

In the resource-based view, organisations are represented by the sum of their physical, human and organisational assets, resources and capabilities. Operational capabilities maintain the status quo and allow an organisation to execute their existing business. Dynamic capabilities, otherwise, allow an organisation to change this status quo including a change of the operational ones. Competitive advantage, in this context, is an effect of continuously developing and reconfiguring these firm-specific assets through dynamic capabilities. Deciding where and how to source the core operational capabilities is a key success factor. Furthermore, developing its dynamic capabilities allows an organisation to effectively manage change its operational capabilities. Many organisations are asserted to have a high dependency on - as well as a high benefit from - the use of information technology (IT), making it a crucial and overarching resource. Furthermore, the IT function is assigned the role as a change enabler and so IT sourcing affects the capability of managing business change. IT sourcing means that organisations need to decide how to source their IT capabilities. Outsourcing of parts of the IT function will also outsource some of the IT capabilities and therefore some of the business capabilities. As a result, IT sourcing has an impact on the organisation's capabilities and consequently on the business success. And finally, a turbulent and fast moving business environment challenges organisations to effectively and efficiently managing business change. Our research builds on the existing theory of dynamic and operational capabilities by considering the interdependencies between the dynamic capabilities of business change and IT sourcing. Further it examines the decision-making oversight of these areas as implemented through IT governance. We introduce a new conceptual framework derived from the existing theory and extended through an illustrative case study conducted in a German bank. Under a philosophical paradigm of constructivism, we collected data from eight semi-structured interviews and used additional sources of evidence in form of annual accounts, strategy papers and IT benchmark reports. We applied an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), which emerged the superordinate themes for our tentative capabilities framework. An understanding of these interdependencies enables scholars and professionals to improve business success through effectively managing business change and evaluating the impact of IT sourcing decisions on the organisation's operational and dynamic capabilities.

Operational active fire mapping and burnt area identification applicable to Mexican Nature Protection Areas using MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR direct readout data

Since 1999, the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO) in Mexico has been developing and managing the “Operational program for the detection of hot-spots using remote sensing techniques”. This program uses images from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR), which are operationally received through the Direct Readout station (DR) at CONABIO. This allows the near-real time monitoring of fire events in Mexico and Central America. In addition to the detection of active fires, the location of hot spots are classified with respect to vegetation types, accessibility, and risk to Nature Protection Areas (NPA). Besides the fast detection of fires, further analysis is necessary due to the considerable effects of forest fires on biodiversity and human life. This fire impact assessment is crucial to support the needs of resource managers and policy makers for adequate fire recovery and restoration actions. CONABIO attempts to meet these requirements, providing post-fire assessment products as part of the management system in particular for satellite-based burnt area mapping. This paper provides an overview of the main components of the operational system and will present an outlook to future activities and system improvements, especially the development of a burnt area product. A special focus will also be placed on the fire occurrence within NPAs of Mexico

The aims of early years outdoor education in England: a conceptual and empirical investigation

This paper explores the place of aims in the early years foundation stage outdoor environment in England. Through examining the writing of academics, various themes are identified, and constructed into possible aims. These themes/aims are compared to an empirical study of early years teachers’ attitudes. Data was collected by questionnaire from schools within the University of Reading partnership. There was general agreement between experts and teachers as to the aims. While some respondents were able to explain what the aims of outdoor activity were, a significant number were unable to identify aims; further, a significant number did not distinguish between approach/practice and aims. A lack of understanding and agreement as to what the aims are may indicate teachers are unsure about the purpose of outdoor education for young children. A result of this study is to agree and make explicit the aims for outdoor education in the early years.

Intuitions, disagreement and referential pluralism

Mallon, Machery, Nichols and Stich (Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 79: 332–356, 2009) argue that the use of intuitions in the philosophy of reference is problematic as recent studies show intuitions about reference vary both within and between cultures. I use some ideas from the recent literature on disagreement and truth relativism to shed light on the debate concerning the appropriate reaction to these studies. Mallon et al. argue that variation is problematic because if one tries to use intuitions which vary to find the correct theory of reference one will end up endorsing an absurd position: referential pluralism. I argue that there is hope for intuition-based philosophy of reference. One can avoid endorsing referential pluralism (as Mallon et al. understand it). Furthermore, referential pluralism may not be so absurd after all.

A conceptual framework for service system interaction

There is a growing research concern on how service ecosystems form and interact. This research thus aims to explore the service ecosystem formation and interaction as well as its underlying nature of value co-creation. This work develops an initial conceptual framework for assessing service system interactions that includes the various stages of value co-creation within ecosystem context. How the conceptual framework will further be developed and future plan are also presented.

The dark side of brand attachment: a conceptual framework of brand attachment's detrimental outcomes

Brand attachment recently has received great attention among practitioners and academics alike. Scholars consider brand attachment a key requisite in consumer-brand relationships that create favourable consumer behaviours such as positive brand attitudes and brand loyalty. Few studies, however, examine the detrimental outcomes of brand attachment. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that explores how brand attachment may explain detrimental consumer behaviours, such as oppositional brand loyalty and antibrand actions. We investigate consumers' trash-talking and schadenfreude in brand communities and their subsequent outcomes. Our framework reveals that the link between brand attachment and oppositional brand loyalty is driven by consumers' social identity and sense of rivalry. Furthermore, we put forward that brand attachment leads to anti-brand actions when relationships deteriorate. We identify two factors behind the deterioration: (1) companies' opportunism activities, and (2) incongruity between consumers' values and the brand's values. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed arising from our emerging 'dark side' brand attachment framework.

SPARE-ICE: synergistic Ice Water Path from passive operational sensors

This article presents SPARE-ICE, the Synergistic Passive Atmospheric Retrieval Experiment-ICE. SPARE-ICE is the first Ice Water Path (IWP) product combining infrared and microwave radiances. By using only passive operational sensors, the SPARE-ICE retrieval can be used to process data from at least the NOAA 15 to 19 and MetOp satellites, obtaining time series from 1998 onward. The retrieval is developed using collocations between passive operational sensors (solar, terrestrial infrared, microwave), the CloudSat radar, and the CALIPSO lidar. The collocations form a retrieval database matching measurements from passive sensors against the existing active combined radar-lidar product 2C-ICE. With this retrieval database, we train a pair of artificial neural networks to detect clouds and retrieve IWP. When considering solar, terrestrial infrared, and microwave-based measurements, we show that any combination of two techniques performs better than either single-technique retrieval. We choose not to include solar reflectances in SPARE-ICE, because the improvement is small, and so that SPARE-ICE can be retrieved both daytime and nighttime. The median fractional error between SPARE-ICE and 2C-ICE is around a factor 2, a figure similar to the random error between 2C-ICE ice water content (IWC) and in situ measurements. A comparison of SPARE-ICE with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Pathfinder Atmospheric Extended (PATMOS-X), and Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS) indicates that SPARE-ICE appears to perform well even in difficult conditions. SPARE-ICE is available for public use.

Selection of operational parameters for the production of instant soy protein isolate by pulsed fluid bed agglomeration

The objective of this study was to select the optimal operational conditions for the production of instant soy protein isolate (SPI) by pulsed fluid bed agglomeration. The spray-dried SPI was characterized as being a cohesive powder, presenting cracks and channeling formation during its fluidization (Geldart type A). The process was carried out in a pulsed fluid bed, and aqueous maltodextrin solution was used as liquid binder. Air pulsation, at a frequency of 600 rpm, was used to fluidize the cohesive SPI particles and to allow agglomeration to occur. Seventeen tests were performed according to a central composite design. Independent variables were (i) feed flow rate (0.5-3.5 g/min), (ii) atomizing air pressure (0.5-1.5 bar) and (iii) binder concentration (10-50%). Mean particle diameter, process yield and product moisture were analyzed as responses. Surface response analysis led to the selection of optimal operational parameters, following which larger granules with low moisture content and high process yield were produced. Product transformations were also evaluated by the analysis of size distribution, flowability, cohesiveness and wettability. When compared to raw material, agglomerated particles were more porous and had a more irregular shape, presenting a wetting time decrease, free-flow improvement and cohesiveness reduction. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations

The main objective of the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” is by the use of a case study test the MFD™-method (Erixon G. , 1998) combined with PMM in a product development project. (Henceforth called MFD™/PMM-method). The MFD™/PMM-method used for documenting and controlling a product development project has since it was introduced been used in several industries and projects. The method has been proved to be a good way of working with the early stages of product development, however, there are almost only projects carried out on large industries which means that there are very few references to how the MFD™/PMM-method works in a small corporation. Therefore, was the case study in the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” carried out in a small corporation to find out whether the MFD™/PMM-method also can be applied and used in such a corporation.The PMM was proposed in a paper presented at Delft University of Technology in Holland 1998 by the author and Gunnar Erixon. (See appended paper C: The chart of modular function deployment.) The title “The chart of modular function deployment” was later renamed as PMM, Product Management Map. (Sweden PreCAD AB, 2000). The PMM consists of a QFD-matrix linked to MIM (Module Indication Matrix) via a coupling matrix which makes it possible to make an unbroken chain from the customer domain to the designed product/modules. The PMM makes it easy to correct omissions made in creating new products and modules.In the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” the universal MFD™/PMM-method has been adapted by the author to three models of product development; original-, evolutionary- and incremental development.The evolutionary adapted MFD™/PMM-method was tested as a case study at Atlings AB in the community Ockelbo. Atlings AB is a small corporation with a total number of 50 employees and an annual turnover of 9 million €. The product studied at the corporation was a steady rest for supporting long shafts in turning. The project team consisted of management director, a sales promoter, a production engineer, a design engineer and a workshop technician, the author as team leader and a colleague from Dalarna University as discussion partner. The project team has had six meetings.The project team managed to use MFD™ and to make a complete PMM of the studied product. There were no real problems occurring in the project work, on the contrary the team members worked very well in the group, having ideas how to improve the product. Instead, the challenge for a small company is how to work with the MFD™/PMM-method in the long run! If the MFD™/PMM-method is to be a useful tool for the company it needs to be used continuously and that requires financial and personnel resources. One way for the company to overcome the probable lack of recourses regarding capital and personnel is to establish a good cooperation with a regional university or a development centre.