949 resultados para Concentration-time response modelling


Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Ma thèse s’intéresse aux politiques de santé conçues pour encourager l’offre de services de santé. L’accessibilité aux services de santé est un problème majeur qui mine le système de santé de la plupart des pays industrialisés. Au Québec, le temps médian d’attente entre une recommandation du médecin généraliste et un rendez-vous avec un médecin spécialiste était de 7,3 semaines en 2012, contre 2,9 semaines en 1993, et ceci malgré l’augmentation du nombre de médecins sur cette même période. Pour les décideurs politiques observant l’augmentation du temps d’attente pour des soins de santé, il est important de comprendre la structure de l’offre de travail des médecins et comment celle-ci affecte l’offre des services de santé. Dans ce contexte, je considère deux principales politiques. En premier lieu, j’estime comment les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour examiner comment les politiques de compensation peuvent être utilisées pour déterminer l’offre de services de santé de court terme. En second lieu, j’examine comment la productivité des médecins est affectée par leur expérience, à travers le mécanisme du "learning-by-doing", et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour trouver le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés que l’on doit recruter pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté qui va à la retraite afin de garder l’offre des services de santé constant. Ma thèse développe et applique des méthodes économique et statistique afin de mesurer la réaction des médecins face aux incitatifs monétaires et estimer leur profil de productivité (en mesurant la variation de la productivité des médecins tout le long de leur carrière) en utilisant à la fois des données de panel sur les médecins québécois, provenant d’enquêtes et de l’administration. Les données contiennent des informations sur l’offre de travail de chaque médecin, les différents types de services offerts ainsi que leurs prix. Ces données couvrent une période pendant laquelle le gouvernement du Québec a changé les prix relatifs des services de santé. J’ai utilisé une approche basée sur la modélisation pour développer et estimer un modèle structurel d’offre de travail en permettant au médecin d’être multitâche. Dans mon modèle les médecins choisissent le nombre d’heures travaillées ainsi que l’allocation de ces heures à travers les différents services offerts, de plus les prix des services leurs sont imposés par le gouvernement. Le modèle génère une équation de revenu qui dépend des heures travaillées et d’un indice de prix représentant le rendement marginal des heures travaillées lorsque celles-ci sont allouées de façon optimale à travers les différents services. L’indice de prix dépend des prix des services offerts et des paramètres de la technologie de production des services qui déterminent comment les médecins réagissent aux changements des prix relatifs. J’ai appliqué le modèle aux données de panel sur la rémunération des médecins au Québec fusionnées à celles sur l’utilisation du temps de ces mêmes médecins. J’utilise le modèle pour examiner deux dimensions de l’offre des services de santé. En premierlieu, j’analyse l’utilisation des incitatifs monétaires pour amener les médecins à modifier leur production des différents services. Bien que les études antérieures ont souvent cherché à comparer le comportement des médecins à travers les différents systèmes de compensation,il y a relativement peu d’informations sur comment les médecins réagissent aux changementsdes prix des services de santé. Des débats actuels dans les milieux de politiques de santé au Canada se sont intéressés à l’importance des effets de revenu dans la détermination de la réponse des médecins face à l’augmentation des prix des services de santé. Mon travail contribue à alimenter ce débat en identifiant et en estimant les effets de substitution et de revenu résultant des changements des prix relatifs des services de santé. En second lieu, j’analyse comment l’expérience affecte la productivité des médecins. Cela a une importante implication sur le recrutement des médecins afin de satisfaire la demande croissante due à une population vieillissante, en particulier lorsque les médecins les plus expérimentés (les plus productifs) vont à la retraite. Dans le premier essai, j’ai estimé la fonction de revenu conditionnellement aux heures travaillées, en utilisant la méthode des variables instrumentales afin de contrôler pour une éventuelle endogeneité des heures travaillées. Comme instruments j’ai utilisé les variables indicatrices des âges des médecins, le taux marginal de taxation, le rendement sur le marché boursier, le carré et le cube de ce rendement. Je montre que cela donne la borne inférieure de l’élasticité-prix direct, permettant ainsi de tester si les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires. Les résultats montrent que les bornes inférieures des élasticités-prix de l’offre de services sont significativement positives, suggérant que les médecins répondent aux incitatifs. Un changement des prix relatifs conduit les médecins à allouer plus d’heures de travail au service dont le prix a augmenté. Dans le deuxième essai, j’estime le modèle en entier, de façon inconditionnelle aux heures travaillées, en analysant les variations des heures travaillées par les médecins, le volume des services offerts et le revenu des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai utilisé l’estimateur de la méthode des moments simulés. Les résultats montrent que les élasticités-prix direct de substitution sont élevées et significativement positives, représentant une tendance des médecins à accroitre le volume du service dont le prix a connu la plus forte augmentation. Les élasticitésprix croisées de substitution sont également élevées mais négatives. Par ailleurs, il existe un effet de revenu associé à l’augmentation des tarifs. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle structurel pour simuler une hausse générale de prix des services de 32%. Les résultats montrent que les médecins devraient réduire le nombre total d’heures travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0,02) ainsi que les heures cliniques travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0.07). Ils devraient aussi réduire le volume de services offerts (élasticité moyenne de -0.05). Troisièmement, j’ai exploité le lien naturel existant entre le revenu d’un médecin payé à l’acte et sa productivité afin d’établir le profil de productivité des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai modifié la spécification du modèle pour prendre en compte la relation entre la productivité d’un médecin et son expérience. J’estime l’équation de revenu en utilisant des données de panel asymétrique et en corrigeant le caractère non-aléatoire des observations manquantes à l’aide d’un modèle de sélection. Les résultats suggèrent que le profil de productivité est une fonction croissante et concave de l’expérience. Par ailleurs, ce profil est robuste à l’utilisation de l’expérience effective (la quantité de service produit) comme variable de contrôle et aussi à la suppression d’hypothèse paramétrique. De plus, si l’expérience du médecin augmente d’une année, il augmente la production de services de 1003 dollar CAN. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle pour calculer le ratio de remplacement : le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés qu’il faut pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté. Ce ratio de remplacement est de 1,2.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Finance is one of the fastest growing areas in modern applied mathematics with real world applications. The interest of this branch of applied mathematics is best described by an example involving shares. Shareholders of a company receive dividends which come from the profit made by the company. The proceeds of the company, once it is taken over or wound up, will also be distributed to shareholders. Therefore shares have a value that reflects the views of investors about the likely dividend payments and capital growth of the company. Obviously such value will be quantified by the share price on stock exchanges. Therefore financial modelling serves to understand the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. There are other financial activities and it is not an intention of this paper to discuss all of these activities. The main concern of this paper is to propose a parallel algorithm for the numerical solution of an European option. This paper is organised as follows. First, a brief introduction is given of a simple mathematical model for European options and possible numerical schemes of solving such mathematical model. Second, Laplace transform is applied to the mathematical model which leads to a set of parametric equations where solutions of different parametric equations may be found concurrently. Numerical inverse Laplace transform is done by means of an inversion algorithm developed by Stehfast. The scalability of the algorithm in a distributed environment is demonstrated. Third, a performance analysis of the present algorithm is compared with a spatial domain decomposition developed particularly for time-dependent heat equation. Finally, a number of issues are discussed and future work suggested.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This study compares the antioxidant and antimicrobial transcriptional expression of blue shrimps reared according to two different systems, BioFloc Technology (BFT) and Clear sea Water (CW) and their differential responses when facing an experimental sublethal hydrogen peroxide stress. After 30 days of rearing, juvenile shrimps were exposed to H2O2 stress at a concentration of 30 ppm during 6 hours. The oxidative stress caused by H2O2 was examined in the digestive glands of the shrimp, in which antioxidant enzyme (AOE) and antimicrobial peptide (AMP) gene expression were analysed by quantitative real-time PCR. Results showed that rearing conditions did not affect the expression of genes encoding AOEs or AMPs. However, H2O2 stress induced a differential response in expression between shrimps from the two rearing treatments (BFT and CW). Comparative analysis of the expression profiles indicates that catalase transcripts were significantly upregulated by H2O2 stress for BFT shrimps while no change was observed for CW shrimps. In contrast, H2O2 caused down-regulation of superoxide dismutase and glutathione transferase transcripts and of the three AMP transcripts studied (penaeidin 2 and 3, and crustin) for CW shrimps, while no effect was observed on BFT shrimp transcript levels. These results suggested that BFT shrimps maintained antioxidant and AMP responses after stress and therefore can effectively protect their cells against oxidative stress, while CW shrimp immune competence seems to decrease after stress.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This thesis presents quantitative studies of T cell and dendritic cell (DC) behaviour in mouse lymph nodes (LNs) in the naive state and following immunisation. These processes are of importance and interest in basic immunology, and better understanding could improve both diagnostic capacity and therapeutic manipulations, potentially helping in producing more effective vaccines or developing treatments for autoimmune diseases. The problem is also interesting conceptually as it is relevant to other fields where 3D movement of objects is tracked with a discrete scanning interval. A general immunology introduction is presented in chapter 1. In chapter 2, I apply quantitative methods to multi-photon imaging data to measure how T cells and DCs are spatially arranged in LNs. This has been previously studied to describe differences between the naive and immunised state and as an indicator of the magnitude of the immune response in LNs, but previous analyses have been generally descriptive. The quantitative analysis shows that some of the previous conclusions may have been premature. In chapter 3, I use Bayesian state-space models to test some hypotheses about the mode of T cell search for DCs. A two-state mode of movement where T cells can be classified as either interacting to a DC or freely migrating is supported over a model where T cells would home in on DCs at distance through for example the action of chemokines. In chapter 4, I study whether T cell migration is linked to the geometric structure of the fibroblast reticular network (FRC). I find support for the hypothesis that the movement is constrained to the fibroblast reticular cell (FRC) network over an alternative 'random walk with persistence time' model where cells would move randomly, with a short-term persistence driven by a hypothetical T cell intrinsic 'clock'. I also present unexpected results on the FRC network geometry. Finally, a quantitative method is presented for addressing some measurement biases inherent to multi-photon imaging. In all three chapters, novel findings are made, and the methods developed have the potential for further use to address important problems in the field. In chapter 5, I present a summary and synthesis of results from chapters 3-4 and a more speculative discussion of these results and potential future directions.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This document does NOT address the issue of chlorophyll-a quality control (either real-time or delayed mode). As a preliminary step towards that goal, this document seeks to ensure that all countries deploying floats equipped with chlorophyll-a sensors document the data and metadata related to these floats properly. We produced this document in response to action item 3 from the first Bio-Argo Data Management meeting in Hyderabad (November 12-13, 2012). If the recommendations contained herein are followed, we will end up with a more uniform set of chlorophyll-a data within the Bio-Argo data system, allowing users to begin analyzing not only their own chlorophyll-a data, but also those of others, in the true spirit of Argo data sharing.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

There is scientific evidence demonstrating the benefits of mushrooms ingestion due to their richness in bioactive compounds such as mycosterols, in particular ergosterol [I]. Agaricus bisporus L. is the most consumed mushroom worldwide presenting 90% of ergosterol in its sterol fraction [2]. Thus, it is an interesting matrix to obtain ergosterol, a molecule with a high commercial value. According to literature, ergosterol concentration can vary between 3 to 9 mg per g of dried mushroom. Nowadays, traditional methods such as maceration and Soxhlet extraction are being replaced by emerging methodologies such as ultrasound (UAE) and microwave assisted extraction (MAE) in order to decrease the used solvent amount, extraction time and, of course, increasing the extraction yield [2]. In the present work, A. bisporus was extracted varying several parameters relevant to UAE and MAE: UAE: solvent type (hexane and ethanol), ultrasound amplitude (50 - 100 %) and sonication time (5 min-15 min); MAE: solvent was fixed as ethanol, time (0-20 min), temperature (60-210 •c) and solid-liquid ratio (1-20 g!L). Moreover, in order to decrease the process complexity, the pertinence to apply a saponification step was evaluated. Response surface methodology was applied to generate mathematical models which allow maximizing and optimizing the response variables that influence the extraction of ergosterol. Concerning the UAE, ethanol proved to be the best solvent to achieve higher levels of ergosterol (671.5 ± 0.5 mg/100 g dw, at 75% amplitude for 15 min), once hexane was only able to extract 152.2 ± 0.2 mg/100 g dw, in the same conditions. Nevertheless, the hexane extract showed higher purity (11%) when compared with the ethanol counterpart ( 4% ). Furthermore, in the case of the ethanolic extract, the saponification step increased its purity to 21%, while for the hexane extract the purity was similar; in fact, hexane presents higher selectivity for the lipophilic compounds comparatively with ethanol. Regarding the MAE technique, the results showed that the optimal conditions (19 ± 3 min, 133 ± 12 •c and 1.6 ± 0.5 g!L) allowed higher ergosterol extraction levels (556 ± 26 mg/100 g dw). The values obtained with MAE are close to the ones obtained with conventional Soxhlet extraction (676 ± 3 mg/100 g dw) and UAE. Overall, UAE and MAE proved to he efficient technologies to maximize ergosterol extraction yields.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Despite the intoxication of many eyewitnesses at crime scenes, only four published studies to date have investigated the effects of alcohol intoxication on eyewitness identification performance. While one found intoxication significantly increased false identification rates from target absent showups, three found no such effect using the more traditional lineup procedure. The present study sought to further explore the effects of alcohol intoxication on identification performance and examine whether accurate decisions from intoxicated witnesses could be postdicted by confidence and response times. One hundred and twenty participants engaged in a study examining the effects of intoxication (control, placebo, and mild intoxication) and target presence on identification performance. Participants viewed a simultaneous lineup one week after watching a mock crime video of a man attempting to steal cars. Ethanol intoxication (0.6 ml/kg) was found to make no significant difference to identification accuracy and such identifications from intoxicated individuals were made no less confidently or slowly than those from sober witnesses. These results are discussed with respect to the previous research examining intoxicated witness identification accuracy and the misconceptions the criminal justice system holds about the accuracy of such witnesses.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The model presented allows simulating the pesticide concentration in fruit trees and estimating the pesticide bioconcentration factor in fruits of woody species. The model allows estimating the pesticide uptake by plants through the water transpiration stream and also the time in which maximum pesticide concentration occur in the fruits. The equation proposed presents the relationships between bioconcentration factor (BCF) and the following variables: plant water transpiration volume (Q), pesticide transpiration stream concentration factor (TSCF), pesticide stem-water partition coefficient (KWood,w), stem dry biomass (M) and pesticide dissipation rate in the soil-plant system (kEGS). The modeling started and was developed from a previous model ?Fruit Tree Model? (FTM), reported by Trapp and collaborators in 2003, to which was added the hypothesis that the pesticide degradation in the soil follows a first order kinetic equation. The model fitness was evaluated through the sensitivity analysis of the pesticide BCF values in fruits with respect to the model entry data variability.