919 resultados para Complex sample analysis
Resumo:
The political challenges impeding the negotiation of a comprehensive multilateral agreement on international climate change have received a great deal of attention. A question that has gone somewhat overlooked is what essential components an effective regulatory scheme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions should contain. The objective of this article is to examine the regulatory architecture of current international arrangements relating to global climate change regulation. A systematic analysis of the structure, substantive composition, and administrative characteristics of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol is undertaken. The analytical standard against which the agreements are examined is whether current international regulatory arrangements satisfy the basic requirements of regulatory coherence. The analysis identifies how the present scheme consists of a complex institutional structure that lacks a substantive regulatory core. The implications of the absence of functional and effective mechanisms to govern greenhouse gas emission reductions are considered in relation to the principles of good regulatory design. This, in turn, provides useful insights into how a better regulatory scheme might be designed.
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Ways in which humans engage with the environment have always provided a rich source of material for writers and illustrators of Australian children's literature. Currently, readers are confronted with a multiplicity of complex, competing and/or complementing networks of ideas, theories and emotions that provide narratives about human engagement with the environment at a particular historical moment. This study, entitled Reading the Environment: Narrative Constructions of Ecological Subjectivities in Australian Children's Literature, examines how a representative sample of Australian texts (19 picture books and 4 novels for children and young adults published between 1995 and 2006) constructs fictional ecological subjects in the texts, and offers readers ecological subject positions inscribed with contemporary environmental ideologies. The conceptual framework developed in this study identifies three ideologically grounded positions that humans may assume when engaging with the environment. None of these positions clearly exists independently of any other, nor are they internally homogeneous. Nevertheless they can be categorised as: (i) human dominion over the environment with little regard for environmental degradation (unrestrained anthropocentrism); (ii) human consideration for the environment driven by understandings that humans need the environment to survive (restrained anthropocentrism); and (iii) human deference towards the environment guided by understandings that humans are no more important than the environment (ecocentrism). iv The transdisciplinary methodological approach to textual analysis used in this thesis draws on ecocriticism, narrative theories, visual semiotics, ecofeminism and postcolonialism to discuss the difficulties and contradictions in the construction of the positions offered. Each chapter of textual analysis focuses on the construction of subjectivities in relation to one of the positions identified in the conceptual framework. Chapter 5 is concerned with how texts highlight the negative consequences of human dominion over the environment, or, in the words of this study, living with ecocatastrophe. Chapter 6 examines representations of restrained anthropocentrism in its contemporary form, that is, sustainability. Chapter 7 examines representations of ecocentrism, a radical position with inherent difficulties of representation. According to the analysis undertaken, the focus texts convey the subtleties and complexities of human engagement with the environment and advocate ways of viewing and responding to contemporary unease about the environment. The study concludes that these ways of viewing and responding conform to and/or challenge dominant socio-cultural and political-economic opinions regarding the environment. This study, the first extended work of its kind, makes an original contribution to ecocritical study of Australian children's literature. By undertaking a comprehensive analysis of how texts for children represent human engagement with the environment at a time when important environmental concerns pose significant threats to human existence, I hope to contribute new knowledge to an area of children's literature research that to date has been significantly under-represented.
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The thermal analysis of euchroite shows two mass loss steps in the temperature range 100 to 105°C and 185 to 205°C. These mass loss steps are attributed to dehydration and dehydroxylation of the mineral. Hot stage Raman spectroscopy (HSRS) has been used to study the thermal stability of the mineral euchroite, a mineral involved in a complex set of equilibria between the copper hydroxy arsenates: euchroite Cu2(AsO4)(OH).3H2O → olivenite Cu2(AsO4)(OH) → strashimirite Cu8(AsO4)4(OH)4.5H2O → arhbarite Cu2Mg(AsO4)(OH)3. Hot stage Raman spectroscopy inolves the collection of Raman spectra as a function of the temperature. HSRS shows that the mineral euchroite decomposes between 125 and 175 °C with the loss of water. At 125 °C, Raman bands are observed at 858 cm-1 assigned to the ν1 AsO43- symmetric stretching vibration and 801, 822 and 871 cm-1 assigned to the ν3 AsO43- (A1) antisymmetric stretching vibration. A distinct band shift is observed upon heating to 275 °C. At 275 °C the four Raman bands are resolved at 762, 810, 837 and 862 cm-1. Further heating results in the diminution of the intensity in the Raman spectra and this is attributed to sublimation of the arsenate mineral. Hot stage Raman spectroscopy is most useful technique for studying the thermal stability of minerals especially when only very small amounts of mineral are available.
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The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.
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Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.
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Principal Topic: Resource decisions are critical to the venture creation process, which has important subsequent impacts on venture creation and performance (Boeker, 1989). Most entrepreneurs however, suffer substantial resource constraints in venture creation and during venture growth (Shepherd et al., 2000). Little is known about how high potential, sustainability ventures (the ventures of interest in this research), despite resource constraints, achieve continued venture persistence and venture success. One promising theory that explicitly links to resource constraints is a concept developed by Levi Strauss (1967) termed bricolage. Bricolage aligns with notions of resourcefulness: using what's on hand, through making do, and recombining resources for new or novel purposes (Baker & Nelson 2005). To the best of our knowledge, previous studies have not systematically investigated internal and external constraints, their combinations, and subsequent bricolage patterns. The majority of bricolage literature focuses on external environmental constraints (e.g. Wieck 1989; Baker & Nelson 2005), thereby paying less attention to in evaluating internal constraints (e.g. skills and capabilities) or constraint combinations. In this paper we focus on ventures that typically face resource-poor environments. High potential, nascent and young sustainability ventures are often created and developed with resource constraints and in some cases, have greater resource requirements owing to higher levels of technical sophistication of their products (Rothaermel & Deeds 2006). These ventures usually have high aspirations and potential for growth who ''seeks to meet the needs and aspirations without compromising the ability to meet those of the future'' (Brundtland Commission 1983). High potential ventures are increasingly attributed with a central role in the development of innovation, and employment in developed economies (Acs 2008). Further, increasing awareness of environmental and sustainability issues has fostered demand for business processes that reduce detrimental environmental impacts of global development (Dean & McMullen 2007) and more environmentally sensitive products and services: representing an opportunity for the development of ventures that seek to satisfy this demand through entrepreneurial action. These ventures may choose to ''make do'' with existing resources in developing resource combinations that produce the least impact on the environment. The continuous conflict between the greater requirements for resources and limited resource availability in high potential sustainable ventures, with the added complexity of balancing this with an uncompromising focus on using ''what's on hand'' to lessen environment impacts may make bricolage behaviours critical for these ventures. Research into bricolage behaviour is however, the exception rather than the rule (Cunha 2005). More research is therefore needed to further develop and extend this emerging concept, especially in the context of sustainability ventures who are committed to personal and social goals of resourcefulness. To date, however, bricolage has not been studied specifically among high potential sustainable ventures. This research seeks to develop an in depth understanding of the impact of internal and external constraints and their combinations on the mechanisms employed in bricolage behaviours in differing dynamic environments. The following research question was developed to investigate this: How do internal, external resource constraints (or their combinations) impact bricolage resource decisions in high potential sustainability ventures? ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: 6 case studies will be developed utilizing survey data from the Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) large-scale longitudinal study of new venture start-ups in Australia. Prior to commencing case studies, 6 scoping interviews were conducted with key stakeholders including industry members, established businesses and government to ensure practical relevance in case development. The venture is considered the unit of analysis with the key informant being the entrepreneur and other management team members where appropriate. Triangulation techniques are used in this research including semi-structured interviews, survey data, onsite visits and secondary documentation website analysis, resumes, and business plans. These 6 sustainability ventures have been selected based on different environmental dynamism conditions including a traditionally mature market (building industry) and a more dynamic, evolving industry (renewable energy/solar ventures). In evaluating multidisciplinary literature, we expect the following external constraints are critical including: technology constraints (seen through lock-in of incumbents existing technology), institutional regulation and standards, access to markets, knowledge and training to nascent and young venture bricolage processes. The case studies will investigate internal constraints including resource fungability, resource combination capabilities, translating complex science/engineering knowledge into salient, valuable market propositions, i.e. appropriate market outcomes, and leveraging relationships may further influence bricolage decisions. ---------- Results and Implications: Intended ventures have been identified within the CAUSEE sample and have agreed to participate and secondary data collection for triangulation purposes has already commenced. Data collection of the case studies commenced 27th of May 2009. Analysis is expected to be completed finalised by 25th September 2009. This paper will report on the pattern of resource constraints and its impact on bricolage behaviours: its subsequent impact on resource deployment within venture creation and venture growth. As such, this research extends the theory of bricolage through the systematic analysis of constraints on resource management processes in sustainability ventures. For practice, this research may assist in providing a better understanding of the resource requirements and processes needed for continued venture persistence and growth in sustainability ventures. In these times of economic uncertainty, a better understanding of the influence on constraints and bricolage: the interplay of behaviours, processes and outcomes may enable greater venture continuance and success.
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This paper examines the role of intuition in the way that people operate unfamiliar devices. Intuition is a type of cognitive processing that is often non-conscious and utilises stored experiential knowledge. Intuitive interaction involves the use of knowledge gained from other products and/or experiences. Two initial experimental studies revealed that prior exposure to products employing similar features helped participants to complete set tasks more quickly and intuitively, and that familiar features were intuitively used more often than unfamiliar ones. A third experiment confirmed that performance is affected by a person's level of familiarity with similar technologies, and also revealed that appearance (shape, size and labelling of features) seems to be the variable that most affects time spent on a task and intuitive uses during that time. Age also seems to have an effect. These results and their implications are discussed.
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Non-driving related cognitive load and variations of emotional state may impact a driver’s capability to control a vehicle and introduces driving errors. Availability of reliable cognitive load and emotion detection in drivers would benefit the design of active safety systems and other intelligent in-vehicle interfaces. In this study, speech produced by 68 subjects while driving in urban areas is analyzed. A particular focus is on speech production differences in two secondary cognitive tasks, interactions with a co-driver and calls to automated spoken dialog systems (SDS), and two emotional states during the SDS interactions - neutral/negative. A number of speech parameters are found to vary across the cognitive/emotion classes. Suitability of selected cepstral- and production-based features for automatic cognitive task/emotion classification is investigated. A fusion of GMM/SVM classifiers yields an accuracy of 94.3% in cognitive task and 81.3% in emotion classification.
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Greyback canegrubs cost the Australian sugarcane industry around $13 million per annum in damage and control. A novel and cost effective biocontrol bacterium could play an important role in the integrated pest management program currently in place to reduce damage and control associated costs. During the course of this project, terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP), 16-S rDNA cloning, suppressive subtractive hybridisation (SSH) and entomopathogen-specific PCR screening were used to investigate the little studied canegrub-associated microflora in an attempt to discover novel pathogens from putatively-diseased specimens. Microflora associated with these soil-dwelling insects was found to be both highly diverse and divergent between individual specimens. Dominant members detected in live specimens were predominantly from taxa of known insect symbionts while dominant sequences amplified from dead grubs were homologous to putativelysaprophytic bacteria and bacteria able to grow during refrigeration. A number of entomopathogenic bacteria were identified such as Photorhabdus luminescens and Pseudomonas fluorescens. Dead canegrubs prior to decomposition need to be analysed if these bacteria are to be isolated. Novel strategies to enrich putative pathogen-associated sequences (SSH and PCR screening) were shown to be promising approaches for pathogen discovery and the investigation of canegrubsassociated microflora. However, due to inter- and intra-grub-associated community diversity, dead grub decomposition and PCR-specific methodological limitations (PCR bias, primer specificity, BLAST database restrictions, 16-S gene copy number and heterogeneity), recommendations have been made to improve the efficiency of such techniques. Improved specimen collection procedures and utilisation of emerging high-throughput sequencing technologies may be required to examine these complex communities in more detail. This is the first study to perform a whole-grub analysis and comparison of greyback canegrub-associated microbial communities. This work also describes the development of a novel V3-PCR based SSH technique. This was the first SSH technique to use V3-PCR products as a starting material and specifically compare bacterial species present in a complex community.
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Adolescent drinking is a significant issue yet valid psychometric tools designed for this group are scarce. The Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire—Revised Adolescent Version (DRSEQ-RA) is designed to assess an individual's belief in their ability to resist drinking alcohol. The original DRSEQ-R consists of three factors reflecting social pressure refusal self-efficacy, opportunistic refusal self-efficacy and emotional relief refusal self-efficacy. A large sample of 2020 adolescents aged between 12 and 19 years completed the DRSEQ and measures of alcohol consumption in small groups. Using confirmatory factor analysis, the three factor structure was confirmed. All three factors were negatively correlated with both frequency and volume of alcohol consumption. Drinkers reported lower drinking refusal self-efficacy than non-drinkers. Taken together, these results suggest that the adolescent version of the Drinking Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (DRSEQ-RA) is a reliable and valid measure of drinking refusal self-efficacy.
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Since the formal recognition of practice-led research in the 1990s, many higher research degree candidates in art, design and media have submitted creative works along with an accompanying written document or ‘exegesis’ for examination. Various models for the exegesis have been proposed in university guidelines and academic texts during the past decade, and students and supervisors have experimented with its contents and structure. With a substantial number of exegeses submitted and archived, it has now become possible to move beyond proposition to empirical analysis. In this article we present the findings of a content analysis of a large, local sample of submitted exegeses. We identify the emergence of a persistent pattern in the types of content included as well as overall structure. Besides an introduction and conclusion, this pattern includes three main parts, which can be summarized as situating concepts (conceptual definitions and theories); precedents of practice (traditions and exemplars in the field); and researcher’s creative practice (the creative process, the artifacts produced and their value as research). We argue that this model combines earlier approaches to the exegesis, which oscillated between academic objectivity, by providing a contextual framework for the practice, and personal reflexivity, by providing commentary on the creative practice. But this model is more than simply a hybrid: it provides a dual orientation, which allows the researcher to both situate their creative practice within a trajectory of research and do justice to its personally invested poetics. By performing the important function of connecting the practice and creative work to a wider emergent field, the model helps to support claims for a research contribution to the field. We call it a connective model of exegesis.
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In a resource constrained business world, strategic choices must be made on process improvement and service delivery. There are calls for more agile forms of enterprises and much effort is being directed at moving organizations from a complex landscape of disparate application systems to that of an integrated and flexible enterprise accessing complex systems landscapes through service oriented architecture (SOA). This paper describes the deconstruction of an enterprise into business services using value chain analysis as each element in the value chain can be rendered as a business service in the SOA. These business services are explicitly linked to the attainment of specific organizational strategies and their contribution to the attainment of strategy is assessed and recorded. This contribution is then used to provide a rank order of business service to strategy. This information facilitates executive decision making on which business service to develop into the SOA. The paper describes an application of this Critical Service Identification Methodology (CSIM) to a case study.
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To date, most applications of algebraic analysis and attacks on stream ciphers are on those based on lin- ear feedback shift registers (LFSRs). In this paper, we extend algebraic analysis to non-LFSR based stream ciphers. Specifically, we perform an algebraic analysis on the RC4 family of stream ciphers, an example of stream ciphers based on dynamic tables, and inves- tigate its implications to potential algebraic attacks on the cipher. This is, to our knowledge, the first pa- per that evaluates the security of RC4 against alge- braic attacks through providing a full set of equations that describe the complex word manipulations in the system. For an arbitrary word size, we derive alge- braic representations for the three main operations used in RC4, namely state extraction, word addition and state permutation. Equations relating the inter- nal states and keystream of RC4 are then obtained from each component of the cipher based on these al- gebraic representations, and analysed in terms of their contributions to the security of RC4 against algebraic attacks. Interestingly, it is shown that each of the three main operations contained in the components has its own unique algebraic properties, and when their respective equations are combined, the resulting system becomes infeasible to solve. This results in a high level of security being achieved by RC4 against algebraic attacks. On the other hand, the removal of an operation from the cipher could compromise this security. Experiments on reduced versions of RC4 have been performed, which confirms the validity of our algebraic analysis and the conclusion that the full RC4 stream cipher seems to be immune to algebraic attacks at present.
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Presentation about research projects that build understanding of urban design and interactions and plan for future opportunities. What do we need to model?
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Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i