870 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models


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Climate change is an important environmental problem and one whose economic implications are many and varied. This paper starts with the presumption that mitigation of greenhouse gases is a necessary policy that has to be designed in a cost effective way. It is well known that market instruments are the best option for cost effectiveness. But the discussion regarding which of the various market instruments should be used, how they may interact and what combinations of policies should be implemented is still open and very lively. In this paper we propose a combination of instruments: the marketable emission permits already in place in Europe for major economic sectors and a CO(2) tax for economic sectors not included in the emissions permit scheme. The study uses an applied general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy to compute the results obtained with the new mix of instruments proposed. As the combination of the market for emission permits and the CO(2) tax admits different possibilities that depend on how the mitigation is distributed among the economic sectors, we concentrate on four possibilities: cost-effective, equalitarian, proportional to emissions, and proportional to output distributions. Other alternatives to the CO(2) tax are also analysed (tax on energy, on oil and on electricity). Our findings suggest that careful, well designed policies are needed as any deviation imposes significant additional costs that increase more than proportionally to the level of emissions reduction targeted by the EU.

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Qens/wins 2014 - 11th International Conference on Quasielastic Neutron Scattering and 6th International Workshop on Inelastic Neutron Spectrometers / editado por:Frick, B; Koza, MM; Boehm, M; Mutka, H

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Jitter measurements were performed on a monolithically integrated active/passive cavity multiple quantum well laser, actively mode-locked at 10 GHz via modulation of an absorber section. Sub-10 ps pulses were produced upon optimization of the drive conditions to the gain, distributed Bragg reflector, and absorber sections. A model was also developed using travelling wave rate equations. Simulation results suggest that spontaneous emission is the dominant cause of jitter, with carrier dynamics having a time constant of the order of 1 ns.

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This paper explores the long term development of networks of glia and neurons on patterns of Parylene-C on a SiO 2 substrate. We harvested glia and neurons from the Sprague-Dawley (P1-P7) rat hippocampus and utilized an established cell patterning technique in order to investigate cellular migration, over the course of 3 weeks. This work demonstrates that uncontrolled glial mitosis gradually disrupts cellular patterns that are established early during culture. This effect is not attributed to a loss of protein from the Parylene-C surface, as nitrogen levels on the substrate remain stable over 3 weeks. The inclusion of the anti-mitotic cytarabine (Ara-C) in the culture medium moderates glial division and thus, adequately preserves initial glial and neuronal conformity to underlying patterns. Neuronal apoptosis, often associated with the use of Ara-C, is mitigated by the addition of brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). We believe that with the right combination of glial inhibitors and neuronal promoters, the Parylene-C based cell patterning method can generate structured, active neural networks that can be sustained and investigated over extended periods of time. To our knowledge this is the first report on the concurrent application of Ara-C and BDNF on patterned cell cultures. © 2011 Delivopoulos, Murray.

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Memory is sensitive to the short-acting anesthetic (2,6-diisopropylphenol) propofol, but the underlying mechanism is little known. Here, we have examined the effects of propofol on synaptic plasticity in the CA1 region of the hippocampus of anesthetized rats. We found that low dose of propofol (20 mg/kg, i.p.) did not affect the basal transmission, but enhanced prominently the development of long-term depression (LTD) and impaired the maintenance of long-term potentiation (LTP). The impairment of LTP maintenance and enhancement of LTD development may contribute to propofol-induced deficits in memory following propofol anesthesia. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The morphology of the beach backshore and foreshore at Huiquan Bay, Qingdao, China, is characterized by a single intertidal sandbar system with a spring tide range of 4.59 m. The beach was measured with a laser total station of Leica TPS402. Contours of the beach were generated using data collected in March and November 2005. The survey method provided 2 mm measuring accuracy and 4-10 m horizontal spacing. The net accretion volume of the foreshore was about 11, 215 m(3) from March to November. After sand sculpture activity, the axis of the sand trough migrated onshore from about 3.5 m to 17.5 m on the foreshore beach in November. At the same time, the axis of the sandbar crest migrated onshore no more than 42.25 m on the northwest foreshore; and it migrated offshore no more than 23.75 m on the southeast foreshore. On the northwest and southeast foreshore beach, two strips of erosion areas with a thickness of 0-0.2 m appeared on the sandbar crest. Accretion occurred at the bottom of the sand trough with a thickness of similar to 0.2-0.6 m. The sandbar height decreased after sand sculpture activity, and it was no more than 0.7 m in March and 0.6 m in November. Human activities, such as sand digging on the sandbar crest during sand sculpture activity, also can disturb the beach morphology of intertidal bar systems. This phenomenon also was validated by comparison of beach morphology, the results of a color artificial tracer experiment and a sediment transportation trend prediction.

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Quantifying adaptation to light distortion of subjects undergoing orthokeratology (OK) for myopia during the first month of treatment. Twenty-nine healthy volunteers (age: 22.34 ± 8.08 years) with mean spherical equivalent refractive error −2.10 ± 0.93D were evaluated at baseline and days 1, 7, 15, and 30 of OK treatment. Light distortion was determined using an experimental prototype. Corneal aberrations were derived from corneal topography for different pupil sizes. Contrast sensitivity function (CSF) was analyzed for frequencies of 1.50, 2.12, 3.00, 4.24, 6.00, 8.49, 12.00, 16.97, and 24.00 cpd under photopic conditions.

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F. Smith and Q. Shen. Fault identification through the combination of symbolic conflict recognition and Markov Chain-aided belief revision. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans, 34(5):649-663, 2004.

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Neurogenesis occurs in two distinct regions of the adult brain; the subgranular zone (SGZ) of the dentate gyrus (DG) in the hippocampus, and the subventricular zone (SVZ) lining the lateral ventricles. It is now well-known that adult hippocampal neurogenesis can be modulated by a number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors e.g. local signalling molecules, exercise, environmental enrichment and learning. Moreover, levels of adult hippocampal neurogenesis decrease with age, at least in rodents, and alterations in hippocampal neurogenesis have been reported in animal models and human studies of neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative conditions. Neuroinflammation is a common pathological feature of these conditions and is also a potent modulator of adult hippocampal neurogenesis. Recently, the orphan nuclear receptor TLX has been identified as an important regulator of adult hippocampal neurogenesis as its expression is necessary to maintain the neural precursor cell (NPC) pool in the adult DG. Likewise, exposure of animals to voluntary exercise has been consistently demonstrated to promote adult hippocampal neurogenesis. Lentivirus (LV)- mediated gene transfer is a useful tool to elucidate gene function and to explore potential therapeutic candidates across an array of conditions as it facilitates sustained gene expression in both dividing and post-mitotic cell populations. Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors are important regulators of adult hippocampal neurogenesis. Examining how these factors are affected by an inflammatory stimulus, and the subsequent effects on adult hippocampal neurogenesis provides important information for the development of novel treatment strategies for neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative conditions in which adult hippocampal neurogenesis is impaired. The aims of the series of experiments presented in this thesis were to examine the effect of the pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1β (IL-1β) on adult hippocampal NPCs both in vitro and in vivo. In vitro, we have shown that IL-1β reduces proliferation of adult hippocampal NPCs in a dose and time-dependent manner. In addition, we have demonstrated that TLX expression is reduced by IL-1β. Blockade of IL-1β signalling prevented both the IL-1β-induced reduction in cell proliferation and TLX expression. In vivo, we examined the effect of short term and long term exposure to LV-IL-1β in sedentary mice and in mice exposed to voluntary running. We demonstrated that impaired hippocampal neurogenesis is only evident after long term exposure to IL-1β. In mice exposed to voluntary running, hippocampal neurogenesis is significantly increased following short-term but not long-term exposure to running. Moreover, short-term running effectively prevents any IL-1β-induced effects on hippocampal neurogenesis; however, no such effects are seen following long-term exposure to running.

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A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. A part from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The second section presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learningbased algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.

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Monitoring of Phaeocystis since 1948 during the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey indicates that over the last 5.5 decades the distribution of its colonies in the North Atlantic Ocean was not restricted to neritic waters: occurrence was also recorded in the open Atlantic regions sampled, most frequently in the spring. Apparently, environmental conditions in open ocean waters, also those far oVshore, are suitable for complete lifecycle development of colonies (the only stage recorded in the survey). In the North Sea the frequency of occurrence was also highest in spring. Its southeastern part was the Phaeocystis abundance hotspot of the whole area covered by the survey. Frequency was especially high before the 1960s and after the 1980s, i.e., in the periods when anthropogenic nutrient enrichment was relatively low. Changes in eutrophication have obviously not been a major cause of long-term Phaeocystis variation in the southeastern North Sea, where total phytoplankton biomass was related signiWcantly to river discharge. Evidence is presented for the suggestion that Phaeocystis abundance in the southern North Sea is to a large extent determined by the amount of Atlantic Ocean water Xushed in through the Dover Strait. Since Phaeocystis plays a key role in element Xuxes relevant to climate the results presented here have implications for biogeochemical models of cycling of carbon and sulphur. Sea-to-air exchange of CO2 and dimethyl sulphide (DMS) has been calculated on the basis of measurements during single-year cruises. The considerable annual variation in phytoplankton and in its Phaeocystis component reported here does not warrant extrapolation of such figures.

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The accuracy of two satellite models of marine primary (PP) and new production (NP) were assessed against 14C and 15N uptake measurements taken during six research cruises in the northern North Atlantic. The wavelength resolving model (WRM) was more accurate than the Vertical General Production Model (VGPM) for computation of both PP and NP. Mean monthly satellite maps of PP and NP for both models were generated from 1997 to 2010 using SeaWiFS data for the Irminger basin and North Atlantic. Intra- and inter-annual variability of the two models was compared in six hydrographic zones. Both models exhibited similar spatio-temporal patterns: PP and NP increased from April to June and decreased by August. Higher values were associated with the East Greenland Current (EGC), Iceland Basin (ICB) and the Reykjanes Ridge (RKR) and lower values occurred in the Central Irminger Current (CIC), North Irminger Current (NIC) and Southern Irminger Current (SIC). The annual PP and NP over the SeaWiFS record was 258 and 82 gC m-2 yr-1 respectively for the VGPM and 190 and 41 gC m-2 yr-1 for the WRM. Average annual cumulative sum in the anomalies of NP for the VGPM were positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the EGC, CIC and SIC and negatively correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) in the ICB. By contrast, cumulative sum of the anomalies of NP for the WRM were significantly correlated with NAO only in the EGC and CIC. NP from both VGPM and WRM exhibited significant negative correlations with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in all hydrographic zones. The differences in estimates of PP and NP in these hydrographic zones arise principally from the parameterisation of the euphotic depth and the SST dependence of photo-physiological term in the VGPM, which has a greater sensitivity to variations in temperature than the WRM. In waters of 0 to 5C PP using the VGPM was 43% higher than WRM, from 5 to 10C the VGPM was 29% higher and from 10 to 15C the VGPM was 27% higher.