867 resultados para Collective and semi-presence-based implementation
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The main purpose of the research is to present a proposal for a methodology to support the rehabilitation project of renders of old buildings in Portugal. To achieve the objective it was considered essential to define the main types of participants and aspects to integrate the proposal. The research methodology consists in an inquiry presented to professional participants in rehabilitation, a market study of materials and products available in Portugal, the design of a methodology proposal and its application to a case study. The inquiry sample totals 24 answers from the targeted professionals. A sequence of relevant supporting procedures consists in the proposal, which aims to provide a supporting methodology to decide and project in this context and also to be tested with its application to the building. This proposal was applied to an old building with load-bearing stone masonry walls and air-lime based renders. It was concluded that the assessment of the building and external renderings’ condition, its diagnosis and of the supporting walls, the definition of intervention, the specification of materials to be used and performance requirements to comply, and also plans for conservation and periodic maintenance, are crucial. From the inquiry, compatibility between materials and complementary roles and points of view of different types of participants in rehabilitation must be highlighted. A proposal for a methodology to support the project could provide useful guidance particularly for architects and construction engineers, and improve the understanding of direct participants on site, therefore contributing for the correct implementation of intervention.
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Introduction The relationship between severe clinical manifestations of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and immune response profiles has not yet been clarified, despite numerous studies on the subject. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cytokine profiles and the presence of immunological markers associated with clinical manifestations and, particularly, signs of severity, as defined in a protocol drafted by the Ministry of Health (Brazil). Methods We conducted a prospective, descriptive study between May 2008 and December 2009. This study was based on an assessment of all pediatric patients with VL who were observed in a reference hospital in Maranhão. Results Among 27 children, 55.5% presented with more than one sign of severity or warning sign. Patients without signs of severity or warning signs and patients with only one warning sign had the highest interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) levels, although their interleukin 10 (IL-10) levels were also elevated. In contrast, patients with the features of severe disease had the lowest IFN-γ levels. Three patients who presented with more than two signs of severe disease died; these patients had undetectable interleukin 2 (IL-2) and IFN-γ levels and low IL-10 levels, which varied between 0 and 36.8pg/mL. Conclusions Our results showed that disease severity was associated with low IFN-γ levels and elevated IL-10 levels. However, further studies with larger samples are needed to better characterize the relationship between disease severity and cytokine levels, with the aim of identifying immunological markers of active-disease severity.
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Abstract:INTRODUCTION:The therapeutic scheme of triclabendazole (TCBZ), the recommended anthelmintic against Fasciola hepatica , involves 10mg/kg of body weight administered in a single dose; however, clinical trials in children are scarce. We evaluated the efficacy and tolerability of 2 schemes of TCBZ.METHODS: Eighty-four Peruvian children with F. hepatica eggs in their stools were allocated into 2 groups: 44 received 2 dosages of 7.5mg/kg each with a 12-h interval (Group I), and 40 received a single 10-mg/kg dose (Group II). Evaluation of efficacy was based on the presence of eggs in stools, and tolerability was based on the presence of symptoms and signs post-treatment.RESULTS: A parasitological cure was obtained in 100% of individuals from Group I and 95% of individuals from Group II. The most common adverse event was biliary colic.CONCLUSIONS: The tested scheme was efficacious and tolerable, and it might be an optimal scheme in the region. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the largest series of children treated with TCBZ in a non-hospital setting.
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The main purpose of the research is to present a proposal for a methodology to support the rehabilitation project of renders of old buildings. To achieve the objective it was considered essential to define the main types of participants and aspects to integrate the proposal. The research methodology consists in an inquiry presented to several professional participants in rehabilitation, a market study of materials and products available in Portugal, the design of a methodology proposal and its application to a case study. The inquiry sample totals 24 answers from the targeted professionals. A sequence of relevant supporting procedures consists in the proposal, which aims to provide a supporting methodology to decide and project in this context and also to be tested with its application to the building. This proposal was applied to an old building with load-bearing stone masonry walls and air-lime based renders. It was concluded that the assessment of the building and external renderings’ condition, its diagnosis and of the supporting walls, the definition of intervention, the specification of materials to be used and performance requirements to comply, and also plans for conservation and periodic maintenance, are crucial. From the inquiry, compatibility between materials and complementary roles and points of view of different types of participants in rehabilitation must be highlighted. A proposal for a methodology to support the project could provide useful guidance particularly for architects and construction engineers, and improve the understanding of direct participants on site, therefore contributing for the correct implementation of the intervention.
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O período após o colapso da União Soviética foi o tempo da procura de novas identidades na nova realidade e de escolha de novos parceiros e aliados, o tempo da construção de novos estados e de formulação das regras e normas nacionais. Após o desmoronamento da ideologia soviética - um facto reconhecido oficialmente durante o período da Perestroika –, as pessoas sentiram uma necessidade de preencher o vácuo ideológico e desenvolver uma nova identidade. Foi proclamada a rejeição da estrutura política administrativa herdada da União Soviética e do sistema de economia planificada, e desenvolvida a tendência para a construção do estado democrático fundado numa economia de mercado. As expectativas relativas às transformações no período pós-soviético estavam relacionadas com o Ocidente (EUA e UE), e a construção do estado soberano foi fundada em modelos ocidentais de estado de direito, ‘boa governança’ e a economia de mercado. A UE desempenhou um papel importante na democratização dos estados da região do Sul do Cáucaso através de vários projetos e programas bilaterais e multilaterais no âmbito da Política Europeia de Vizinhança e da Parceria Oriental. Embora as reformas democráticas tenham sido realizadas com vista ao estabelecimento de uma Constituição democrática, à implementação de eleições democráticas e ao desenvolvimento da sociedade civil, fortaleceram, também, ainda mais, a natureza autoritária do poder, impediram a criação de um estado de direito, reforçaram violação dos direitos e das liberdades humanas. (NODIYA, 2003: 30; BAKHMAN, 2003: 17; BADALOV, 2003: 20). Deste modo, o processo da promoção da democracia através das reformas nos três estados do Sul do Cáucaso conduziu à criação de estados de “conteúdo autocrático misto, mas de forma democrática” (CHETERYAN, 2003: 41). Embora seja possível identificar as semelhanças entre os três estados da região do Sul do Cáucaso nas reformas do processo de desenvolvimento, os métodos e meios de implementação de reformas nas realidades dos estados regionais pela administração nacional foram bastante diferentes, por razões associadas às especificidades de cada um (DELCOUR e WOLCZUK, 2013: 3). Cada país é caracterizado pelas suas peculiaridades ao nível da situação geopolítica e diversidade do potencial económico – fatores que definem a trajetória política e económica do estado no período pós-soviético e, em certa medida, influenciam o modo como se desenvolvem as relações com a UE e, portanto, o processo de adoção das reformas e a sua introdução a nível nacional.
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Hand gestures are a powerful way for human communication, with lots of potential applications in the area of human computer interaction. Vision-based hand gesture recognition techniques have many proven advantages compared with traditional devices, giving users a simpler and more natural way to communicate with electronic devices. This work proposes a generic system architecture based in computer vision and machine learning, able to be used with any interface for human-computer interaction. The proposed solution is mainly composed of three modules: a pre-processing and hand segmentation module, a static gesture interface module and a dynamic gesture interface module. The experiments showed that the core of visionbased interaction systems could be the same for all applications and thus facilitate the implementation. For hand posture recognition, a SVM (Support Vector Machine) model was trained and used, able to achieve a final accuracy of 99.4%. For dynamic gestures, an HMM (Hidden Markov Model) model was trained for each gesture that the system could recognize with a final average accuracy of 93.7%. The proposed solution as the advantage of being generic enough with the trained models able to work in real-time, allowing its application in a wide range of human-machine applications. To validate the proposed framework two applications were implemented. The first one is a real-time system able to interpret the Portuguese Sign Language. The second one is an online system able to help a robotic soccer game referee judge a game in real time.
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Dissertação de mestrado em Marketing e Estratégia
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versão acessível em http://ace2015.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ACE_2015_submission_148.pdf
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Dissertação de mestrado em Técnicas de Caraterização e Análise Química
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Driven by concerns about rising energy costs, security of supply and climate change a new wave of Sustainable Energy Technologies (SET’s) have been embraced by the Irish consumer. Such systems as solar collectors, heat pumps and biomass boilers have become common due to government backed financial incentives and revisions of the building regulations. However, there is a deficit of knowledge and understanding of how these technologies operate and perform under Ireland’s maritime climate. This AQ-WBL project was designed to address both these needs by developing a Data Acquisition (DAQ) system to monitor the performance of such technologies and a web-based learning environment to disseminate performance characteristics and supplementary information about these systems. A DAQ system consisting of 108 sensors was developed as part of Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology’s (GMIT’s) Centre for the Integration of Sustainable EnergyTechnologies (CiSET) in an effort to benchmark the performance of solar thermal collectors and Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP’s) under Irish maritime climate, research new methods of integrating these systems within the built environment and raise awareness of SET’s. It has operated reliably for over 2 years and has acquired over 25 million data points. Raising awareness of these SET’s is carried out through the dissemination of the performance data through an online learning environment. A learning environment was created to provide different user groups with a basic understanding of a SET’s with the support of performance data, through a novel 5 step learning process and two examples were developed for the solar thermal collectors and the weather station which can be viewed at http://www.kdp 1 .aquaculture.ie/index.aspx. This online learning environment has been demonstrated to and well received by different groups of GMIT’s undergraduate students and plans have been made to develop it further to support education, awareness, research and regional development.
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Abstract The purpose of this study is to unravel the geodynamic evolution of Thailand and, from that, to extend the interpretation to the rest of Southeast Asia. The methodology was based in a first time on fieldwork in Northern Thailand and Southernmost Myanmar, using a multidisciplinary approach, and then on the compilation and re-interpretation, in a plate tectonics point of view, of existing data about the whole Southeast Asia. The main results concern the Nan-Uttaradit suture, the Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt and the proposition of a new location for the Palaeotethys suture. This led to the establishment of a new plate tectonic model for the geodynamic evolution of Southeast Asia, implying the existence new terranes (Orang Laut and the redefinition of Shan-Thai) and the role of the Palaeopacific Ocean in the tectonic development of the area. The model proposed here considers the Palaeotethys suture as located along the Tertiary Mae Yuam Fault, which represents the divide between the Cimmerian Sibumasu terrane and the Indochina-derived Shan-Thai block. The term Shan-Thai, previously used to define the Cimmerian area (when the Palaeotethys suture was thought to represented by the Nan-Uttaradit suture), was redefined here by keeping its geographical location within the Shan States of Myanmar and Central-Northern Thailand, but attributing it an East Asian Origin. Its detachment from Indochina was the result of the Early Permian opening of the Nan basin. The Nan basin closed during the Middle Triassic, before the deposition of Carnian-Norian molasse. The modalities of the closure of the basin imply a first phase of Middle Permian obduction, followed by final eastwards subduction. The Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt consists of scattered basaltic rocks erupted at least during the Viséan in an extensional continental intraplate setting, on the Shan-Thai part of the Indochina block. The Viséan age was established by the dating of limestone stratigraphically overlying the basalts. In several localities of the East Asian Continent, coeval extensional features occur, possibly implying one or more Early Carboniferous extensional events at a regional scale. These events occurred either due to the presence of a mantle plume or to the roll-back of the Palaeopacific Ocean, subducting beneath Indochina and South China, or both. The Palaeopacific Ocean is responsible, during the Early Permian, for the opening of the Song Ma and Poko back-arcs (Vietnam) with the consequent detachment of the Orang Laut Terranes (Eastern Vietnam, West Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). The Late Triassic/Early Jurassic closure of the Eastern Palaeotethys is considered as having taken place by subduction beneath its southern margin (Gondwana), due to the absence of Late Palaeozoic arc magmatism on its northern (Indochinese) margin and the presence of volcanism on the Cimmerian blocks (Mergui, Lhasa). Résumé Le but de cette étude est d'éclaircir l'évolution géodynamique de la Thaïlande et, à partir de cela, d'étendre l'interprétation au reste de l'Asie du Sud-Est. La méthodologie utilisée est basée dans un premier temps sur du travail de terrain en Thaïlande du nord et dans l'extrême sud du Myanmar, en se basant sur une approche pluridisciplinaire. Dans un deuxième temps, la compilation et la réinterprétation de données préexistantes sur l'Asie du Sud-est la été faite, dans une optique basée sur la tectonique des plaques. Les principaux résultats de ce travail concernent la suture de Nan-Uttaradit, la « Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt» et la proposition d'une nouvelle localité pour la suture de la Paléotethys. Ceci a conduit à l'établissement d'un nouveau modèle pour l'évolution géodynamique de l'Asie du Sud-est, impliquant l'existence de nouveaux terranes (Orang Laut et Shan-Thai redéfini) et le rôle joué par le Paléopacifique dans le développement tectonique de la région. Le modèle présenté ici considère que la suture de la Paléotethys est située le long de la faille Tertiaire de Mae Yuam, qui représente la séparation entre le terrain Cimmérien de Sibumasu et le bloc de Shan-Thai, d'origine Indochinoise. Le terme Shan-Thai, anciennement utilise pour définir le bloc Cimmérien (quand la suture de la Paléotethys était considérée être représentée par la suture de Nan-Uttaradit), a été redéfini ici en maintenant sa localisation géographique dans les états Shan du Myanmar et la Thaïlande nord-centrale, mais en lui attribuant une origine Est Asiatique. Son détachement de l'Indochine est le résultat de l'ouverture du basin de Nan au Permien Inférieur. Le basin de Nan s'est fermé pendant le Trias Moyen, avant le dépôt de molasse Carnienne-Norienne. Les modalités de fermeture du basin invoquent une première phase d'obduction au Permien Moyen, suivie par une subduction finale vers l'est. La "Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt" consiste en des basaltes éparpillés qui ont mis en place au moins pendant le Viséen dans un contexte extensif intraplaque continental sur la partie de l'Indochine correspondant au bloc de Shan-Thai. L'âge Viséen a été établi sur la base de la datation de calcaires qui surmontent stratigraphiquement les basaltes. Dans plusieurs localités du continent Est Asiatique, des preuves d'extension plus ou moins contemporaines ont été retrouvées, ce qui implique l'existence d'une ou plusieurs phases d'extension au Carbonifère Inférieur a une échelle régionale. Ces événements sont attribués soit à la présence d'un plume mantellique, ou au rollback du Paléopacifique, qui subductait sous l'Indochine et la Chine Sud, soit les deux. Pendant le Permien inférieur, le Paléopacifique est responsable pour l'ouverture des basins d'arrière arc de Song Ma et Poko (Vietnam), induisant le détachement des Orang Laut Terranes (Est Vietnam, Ouest Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). La fermeture de la Paléotethys Orientale au Trias Supérieur/Jurassique Inférieur est considérée avoir eu lieu par subduction sous sa marge méridionale (Gondwana), à cause de l'absence de magmatisme d'arc sur sa marge nord (Indochinoise) et de la présence de volcanisme sur les blocs Cimmériens de Lhassa et Sibumasu (Mergui). Résumé large public L'histoire géologique de l'Asie du Sud-est depuis environ 430 millions d'années a été déterminée par les collisions successives de plusieurs continents les uns avec les autres. Il y a environ 430 millions d'années, au Silurien, un grand continent appelé Gondwana, a commencé à se «déchirer» sous l'effet des contraintes tectoniques qui le tiraient. Cette extension a provoqué la rupture du continent et l'ouverture d'un grand océan, appelé Paléotethys, éloignant les deux parties désormais séparées. C'est ainsi que le continent Est Asiatique, composé d'une partie de la Chine actuelle, de la Thaïlande, du Myanmar, de Sumatra, du Vietnam et de Bornéo a été entraîné avec le bord (marge) nord de la Paléotethys, qui s'ouvrait petit à petit. Durant le Carbonifère Supérieur, il y a environ 300 millions d'années, le sud du Gondwana subissait une glaciation, comme en témoigne le dépôt de sédiments glaciaires dans les couches de cet âge. Au même moment le continent Est Asiatique se trouvait à des latitudes tropicales ou équatoriales, ce qui permettait le dépôt de calcaires contenant différents fossiles de foraminifères d'eau chaude et de coraux. Durant le Permien Inférieur, il y a environ 295 millions d'années, la Paléotethys Orientale, qui était un relativement vieil océan avec une croûte froide et lourde, se refermait. La croûte océanique a commencé à s'enfoncer, au sud, sous le Gondwana. C'est ce que l'on appelle la subduction. Ainsi, le Gondwana s'est retrouvé en position de plaque supérieure, par rapport à la Paléotethys qui, elle, était en plaque inférieure. La plaque inférieure en subductant a commencé à reculer. Comme elle ne pouvait pas se désolidariser de la plaque supérieure, en reculant elle l'a tirée. C'est le phénomène du «roll-back ». Cette traction a eu pour effet de déchirer une nouvelle fois le Gondwana, ce qui a résulté en la création d'un nouvel Océan, la Neotethys. Cet Océan en s'ouvrant a déplacé une longue bande continentale que l'on appelle les blocs Cimmériens. La Paléotethys était donc en train de se fermer, la Neotethys de s'ouvrir, et entre deux les blocs Cimmériens se rapprochaient du Continent Est Asiatique. Pendant ce temps, le continent Est Asiatique était aussi soumis à des tensions tectoniques. L'Océan Paléopacifique, à l'est de celui-ci, était aussi en train de subducter. Cette subduction, par roll-back, a déchiré le continent en détachant une ligne de microcontinents appelés ici « Orang Laut Terranes », séparés du continent par deux océans d'arrière arc : Song Ma et Poko. Ceux-ci sont composés de Taiwan, Palawan, Bornéo ouest, Vietnam oriental, et la partie occidentale de Sumatra. Un autre Océan s'est ouvert pratiquement au même moment dans le continent Est Asiatique : l'Océan de Nan qui, en s'ouvrant, a détaché un microcontinent appelé Shan-Thai. La fermeture de l'Océan de Nan, il y a environ 230 millions d'années a resolidarisé Shan-Thai et le continent Est Asiatique et la trace de cet événement est aujourd'hui enregistrée dans la suture (la cicatrice de l'Océan) de Nan-Uttaradit. La cause de l'ouverture de l'Océan de Nan peut soit être due à la subduction du Paléopacifique, soit aux fait que la subduction de la Paléotethys tirait le continent Est Asiatique par le phénomène du « slab-pull », soit aux deux. La subduction du Paléopacifique avait déjà crée de l'extension dans le continent Est Asiatique durant le Carbonifère Inférieur (il y a environ 340-350 millions d'années) en créant des bassins et du volcanisme, aujourd'hui enregistré en différents endroits du continent, dont la ceinture volcanique de Chiang Mai, étudiée ici. A la fin du Trias, la Paléotethys se refermait complètement, et le bloc Cimmérien de Sibumasu entrait en collision avec le continent Est Asiatique. Comme c'est souvent le cas avec les grands océans, il n'y a pas de suture proprement dite, avec des fragments de croûte océanique, pour témoigner de cet évènement. Celui-ci est visible grâce à la différence entre les sédiments du Carbonifère Supérieur et du Permieñ Inférieur de chaque domaine : dans le domaine Cimmérien ils sont de type glaciaire alors que dans le continent Est Asiatique ils témoignent d'un climat tropical. Les océans de Song Ma et Poko se sont aussi refermés au Trias, mais eux ont laissé des sutures visibles
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BACKGROUND: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) systems are widely used tools to verify and correct the target position before each fraction, allowing to maximize treatment accuracy and precision. In this study, we evaluate automatic three-dimensional intensity-based rigid registration (RR) methods for prostate setup correction using CBCT scans and study the impact of rectal distension on registration quality. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 115 CBCT scans of 10 prostate patients. CT-to-CBCT registration was performed using (a) global RR, (b) bony RR, or (c) bony RR refined by a local prostate RR using the CT clinical target volume (CTV) expanded with 1-to-20-mm varying margins. After propagation of the manual CT contours, automatic CBCT contours were generated. For evaluation, a radiation oncologist manually delineated the CTV on the CBCT scans. The propagated and manual CBCT contours were compared using the Dice similarity and a measure based on the bidirectional local distance (BLD). We also conducted a blind visual assessment of the quality of the propagated segmentations. Moreover, we automatically quantified rectal distension between the CT and CBCT scans without using the manual CBCT contours and we investigated its correlation with the registration failures. To improve the registration quality, the air in the rectum was replaced with soft tissue using a filter. The results with and without filtering were compared. RESULTS: The statistical analysis of the Dice coefficients and the BLD values resulted in highly significant differences (p<10(-6)) for the 5-mm and 8-mm local RRs vs the global, bony and 1-mm local RRs. The 8-mm local RR provided the best compromise between accuracy and robustness (Dice median of 0.814 and 97% of success with filtering the air in the rectum). We observed that all failures were due to high rectal distension. Moreover, the visual assessment confirmed the superiority of the 8-mm local RR over the bony RR. CONCLUSION: The most successful CT-to-CBCT RR method proved to be the 8-mm local RR. We have shown the correlation between its registration failures and rectal distension. Furthermore, we have provided a simple (easily applicable in routine) and automatic method to quantify rectal distension and to predict registration failure using only the manual CT contours.
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Background: Distinguishing postmortem gas accumulations in the body due to natural decomposition and other phenomena such as gas embolism can prove a difficult task using purely Multi-Detector Computed Tomography (MDCT). The Radiological Alteration Index (RAI) was created with the intention to be able to identify bodies undergoing the putrefaction process based on the quantity of gas detected within the body. The flaw in this approach is the inability to absolutely determine putrefaction as the origin of gas volumes in cases of moderate alteration. The aim of the current study is to identify percentage compositions of O2, N2, CO2 and the presence of gases such as H2 and H2S within these sampling sites in order to resolve this complication. Materials and methods: All cases investigated in our University Center of Legal Medicine are undergoing a Post-Mortem Computed Tomography (PMCT)-scan before external examination or autopsy as a routine investigation. In the obtained images, areas of gas were characterized as 0, I, II or III based on the amount of gas present according to the RAI (1). The criteria for these characterizations were dependent of the site of gas, for example thoracic and abdominal cavities were graded as I (1 - 3cm gas), II (3 - 5cm gas) and III (>5cm gas). Cases showing gaseous sites with grade II or III were selected for this study. The sampling was performed under CT-guidance to target the regions to be punctured. Luer-lock PTFE syringes equipped with a three-way valve and needles were used to sample the gas directly (2). Gaseous samples were then analysed using gas chromatography coupled to a thermal conductivity detector (GC-TCD). The components present in the samples were expressed as a percentage of the overall gas present. Results: Up to now, we have investigated more than 40 cases using our standardized procedure for sampling and analysis of gas. O2, N2 and CO2 were present in most samples. The following distributions were found to correlate to gas origins of gas embolism/scuba diving accidents, trauma and putrefaction: ? Putrefaction → O2 = 1 - 5%; CO2 > 15%; N2 = 10 - 70%; H2 / H2S / CH4 variable presence ? Gas embolism/Scuba diving accidents → O2 and N2= varying percentages; CO2 > 20% ? Trauma → O2 = small percentage; CO2 < 15%; N2 > 65% H2 and H2S indicated levels of putrefaction along with methane which can also gauge environmental conditions or conditions of body storage/burial. Many cases showing large RAI values (advanced alteration) did reveal a radiological diagnosis which was in concordance with the interpretation of the gas composition. However, in certain cases (gas embolism, scuba divers) radiological interpretation was not possible and only chemical gas analysis was found to lead to the correct diagnosis, meaning that it provided complementary information to the radiological diagnosis. Conclusion: Investigation of postmortem gases is a useful tool to determine origin of gas generation which can aid the diagnosis of the cause of death. Levels of gas can provide information on stage of putrefaction and help to perform essential medico-legal diagnosis such as vital gas embolism.
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Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.
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The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.