779 resultados para Coherent and convex risk measure
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Increasing tungsten (W) use for industrial and military applications has resulted in greater W discharge into natural waters, soils and sediments. Risk modeling of W transport and fate in the environment relies on measurement of the release/mobilization flux of W in the bulk media and the interfaces between matrix compartments. Diffusive gradients in thin-films (DGT) is a promising passive sampling technique to acquire such information. DGT devices equipped with the newly developed high-resolution binding gels (precipitated zirconia, PZ, or ferrihydrite, PF, gels) or classic/conventional ferrihydrite slurry gel were comprehensively assessed for measuring W in waters. FerrihydriteDGT can measure W at various ionic strengths (0.001–0.5 mol L−1 NaNO3) and pH (4–8), while PZDGT can operate across slightly wider environmental conditions. The three DGT configurations gave comparable results for soil W measurement, showing that typically W resupply is relatively poorly sustained. 1D and 2D high-resolution W profiling across sediment—water and hotspot—bulk media interfaces from Lake Taihu were obtained using PZDGT coupled with laser ablation ICP–MS measurement, and the apparent diffusion fluxes across the interfaces were calculated using a numerical model.
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Tem havido uma preocupação crescente com a qualidade do ar interior (QAI) nas escolas em muitos países. Muitos estudos epidemiológicos têm encontrado diferenças regionais entre ambientes interiores. Apesar da elevada incidência de asma e rinite na população infantil, praticamente nada se sabia sobre a QAI em escolas portuguesas. A percepção dos problemas de QAI é crucial para avaliar os riscos para a saúde e rendimento dos estudantes, e para sugerir meios de reduzir a exposição a poluentes indesejáveis. Neste estudo procurou-se obter as concentrações de poluentes de interesse em estabelecimentos de ensino do 1º ciclo de Lisboa e Aveiro, estimar o estado atual de casos de asma e rinite em escolas primárias da capital, avaliar a influência de diferentes materiais das salas de aula/construção e hábitos escolares na QAI, identificar potenciais fontes de poluentes nos interiores e exteriores das salas de aula e propor medidas mitigadoras. Catorze escolas de Lisboa foram visitadas para obter a caracterização física das construções em termos de estrutura, ventilação, materiais de acabamento, produtos de limpeza, densidade de ocupação e potenciais fontes interiores de poluição. Os estudantes foram questionados sobre os seus hábitos e sintomas respiratórios através de inquéritos do modelo ISAAC (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood). Durante a primavera, outono e inverno (2008-2010), nas salas de aula e pátios, foram monitorizados, por amostragem passiva, compostos orgânicos voláteis (COVs), carbonilos e dióxido de azoto (NO2). Foram também medidos parâmetros de conforto e níveis de microrganismos. Duas escolas localizadas, uma no centro da cidade e outra na região suburbana, em Aveiro foram estudadas em 2010. Parâmetros de conforto, microrganismos, COVs, NO2, material particulado (PM10) foram medidos no interior e no exterior de ambas escolas. Os iões solúveis, carbono orgânico e elementar (OC e EC), e compostos orgânicos presentes no material particulado foram subsequentemente analisados em laboratório. Uma medida mitigadora - fitoremediação - foi avaliada na escola do centro da cidade de Aveiro em 2011. Os resultados do estudo mostraram que a QAI é pior do que a do ar exterior. Em geral, os níveis de CO2 e dos bioaerosóis excederam os níveis máximos aceitáveis para o conforto dos ocupantes estipulado pelas regulamentações portuguesas. Quase todos os COVs e carbonilos identificados mostraram razões interior/exterior (I/E) maiores que uma unidade, o que demonstra a importante contribuição de fontes interiores em todas as escolas. As razões I/E das concentrações de NO2 nunca excederam a unidade. Os níveis interiores diários de PM10 foram sempre maiores que os exteriores, exceto nos fins de semana. Após a colocação de plantas numa das salas de aula, observou-se uma redução estatisticamente significativa nos níveis de CO2, COVs, carbonilos, PM10, OC, e dos iões nitrato, sulfato, amónia, cálcio e carbonato. A possível redução dos níveis de poluentes no interior após a colocação de plantas pode representar uma solução de baixo custo para reduzir a exposição a muitos compostos, melhorar o rendimento e aumentar o bem estar dos alunos e professores em sala de aula.
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Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente (Biologia Pesqueira), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015
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We generalize the concept of .systematic risk to a broad class of risk measures potentially accounting for high distribution moments, downside risk, rare disasters, as well as other risk attributes. We offer two different approaches. First is an equilibrium framework generalizing the Capital Asset Pricing Model, two-fund separation, and the security market line. Second is an axiomatic approach resulting in a systematic risk measure as the unique solution to a risk allocation problem. Both approaches lead to similar results extending the traditional beta to capture multiple dimensions of risk. The results lend themselves naturally to empirical investigation.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2015-12
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Coal contains trace elements and naturally occurring radionuclides such as 40K, 232Th, 238U. When coal is burned, minerals, including most of the radionuclides, do not burn and concentrate in the ash several times in comparison with their content in coal. Usually, a small fraction of the fly ash produced (2-5%) is released into the atmosphere. The activities released depend on many factors (concentration in coal, ash content and inorganic matter of the coal, combustion temperature, ratio between bottom and fly ash, filtering system). Therefore, marked differences should be expected between the by-products produced and the amount of activity discharged (per unit of energy produced) from different coal-fired power plants. In fact, the effects of these releases on the environment due to ground deposition have been received some attention but the results from these studies are not unanimous and cannot be understood as a generic conclusion for all coal-fired power plants. In this study, the dispersion modelling of natural radionuclides was carried out to assess the impact of continuous atmospheric releases from a selected coal plant. The natural radioactivity of the coal and the fly ash were measured and the dispersion was modelled by a Gaussian plume estimating the activity concentration at different heights up to a distance of 20 km in several wind directions. External and internal doses (inhalation and ingestion) and the resulting risk were calculated for the population living within 20 km from the coal plant. In average, the effective dose is lower than the ICRP’s limit and the risk is lower than the U.S. EPA’s limit. Therefore, in this situation, the considered exposure does not pose any risk. However, when considering the dispersion in the prevailing wind direction, these values are significant due to an increase of 232Th and 226Ra concentrations in 75% and 44%, respectively.
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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentado ao Instituto de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria, sob orientação do Mestre Fernando Teixeira Pinto
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BACKGROUND: Screening of peripheral atherosclerosis is increasingly used, but few trials have examined its clinical impact. We aimed to assess whether carotid plaque screening helps smokers to improve their health behaviors and cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We randomly assigned 536 smokers aged 40 to 70 years to carotid plaque ultrasonographic screening (US group) vs no screening (control group) in addition to individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapy for all participants. Smokers with at least 1 plaque received pictures of their plaques with a 7-minute structured explanation. The outcomes included biochemically validated smoking cessation at 12 months (primary outcome) and changes in cardiovascular risk factor levels and Framingham risk score. RESULTS: At baseline, participants (mean age, 51.1 years; 45.0% women) smoked an average of 20 cigarettes per day with a median duration of 32 years. The US group had a high prevalence of carotid plaques (57.9%). At 12 months, smoking cessation rates were high, but did not differ between the US and control groups (24.9% vs 22.1%; P = .45). In the US group, cessation rates did not differ according to the presence or absence of plaques. Control of cardiovascular risk factors (ie, blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hemoglobin A(1c) levels in diabetic patients) and mean absolute risk change in Framingham risk score did not differ between the groups. The mean absolute risk change in Framingham risk score was +0.6 in the US group vs +0.3 in the control group (P = .56). CONCLUSION: In smokers, carotid plaque screening performed in addition to thorough smoking cessation counseling is not associated with increased rates of smoking cessation or control of cardiovascular risk factors. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00548665.
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BACKGROUND: Excision and primary midline closure for pilonidal disease (PD) is a simple procedure; however, it is frequently complicated by infection and prolonged healing. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for surgical site infection (SSI) in this context. METHODS: All consecutive patients undergoing excision and primary closure for PD from January 2002 through October 2008 were retrospectively assessed. The end points were SSI, as defined by the Center for Disease Control, and time to healing. Univariable and multivariable risk factor analyses were performed. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-one patients were included [97 men (74%), median age = 24 (range 15-66) years]. SSI occurred in 41 (31%) patients. Median time to healing was 20 days (range 12-76) in patients without SSI and 62 days (range 20-176) in patients with SSI (P < 0.0001). In univariable and multivariable analyses, smoking [OR = 2.6 (95% CI 1.02, 6.8), P = 0.046] and lack of antibiotic prophylaxis [OR = 5.6 (95% CI 2.5, 14.3), P = 0.001] were significant predictors for SSI. Adjusted for SSI, age over 25 was a significant predictor of prolonged healing. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the rate of SSI after excision and primary closure of PD is higher in smokers and could be reduced by antibiotic prophylaxis. SSI significantly prolongs healing time, particularly in patients over 25 years.
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To identify common variants influencing body mass index (BMI), we analyzed genome-wide association data from 16,876 individuals of European descent. After previously reported variants in FTO, the strongest association signal (rs17782313, P = 2.9 x 10(-6)) mapped 188 kb downstream of MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), mutations of which are the leading cause of monogenic severe childhood-onset obesity. We confirmed the BMI association in 60,352 adults (per-allele effect = 0.05 Z-score units; P = 2.8 x 10(-15)) and 5,988 children aged 7-11 (0.13 Z-score units; P = 1.5 x 10(-8)). In case-control analyses (n = 10,583), the odds for severe childhood obesity reached 1.30 (P = 8.0 x 10(-11)). Furthermore, we observed overtransmission of the risk allele to obese offspring in 660 families (P (pedigree disequilibrium test average; PDT-avg) = 2.4 x 10(-4)). The SNP location and patterns of phenotypic associations are consistent with effects mediated through altered MC4R function. Our findings establish that common variants near MC4R influence fat mass, weight and obesity risk at the population level and reinforce the need for large-scale data integration to identify variants influencing continuous biomedical traits.
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OBJECTIVE: Genetic studies might provide new insights into the biological mechanisms underlying lipid metabolism and risk of CAD. We therefore conducted a genome-wide association study to identify novel genetic determinants of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides. METHODS AND RESULTS: We combined genome-wide association data from 8 studies, comprising up to 17 723 participants with information on circulating lipid concentrations. We did independent replication studies in up to 37 774 participants from 8 populations and also in a population of Indian Asian descent. We also assessed the association between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at lipid loci and risk of CAD in up to 9 633 cases and 38 684 controls. We identified 4 novel genetic loci that showed reproducible associations with lipids (probability values, 1.6×10(-8) to 3.1×10(-10)). These include a potentially functional SNP in the SLC39A8 gene for HDL-C, an SNP near the MYLIP/GMPR and PPP1R3B genes for LDL-C, and at the AFF1 gene for triglycerides. SNPs showing strong statistical association with 1 or more lipid traits at the CELSR2, APOB, APOE-C1-C4-C2 cluster, LPL, ZNF259-APOA5-A4-C3-A1 cluster and TRIB1 loci were also associated with CAD risk (probability values, 1.1×10(-3) to 1.2×10(-9)). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified 4 novel loci associated with circulating lipids. We also show that in addition to those that are largely associated with LDL-C, genetic loci mainly associated with circulating triglycerides and HDL-C are also associated with risk of CAD. These findings potentially provide new insights into the biological mechanisms underlying lipid metabolism and CAD risk.
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BACKGROUND: No previous studies have explored how closely women follow their psychotropic drug regimens during pregnancy. This study aimed to explore patterns of and factors associated with low adherence to psychotropic medication during pregnancy. METHODS: Multinational web-based study was performed in 18 countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Uniform data collection was ensured via an electronic questionnaire. Pregnant women were eligible to participate. Adherence was measured via the 8-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). The Beliefs about Prescribed Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ-specific), the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), and a numeric rating scale were utilized to measure women's beliefs, depressive symptoms, and antidepressant risk perception, respectively. Participants reporting use of psychotropic medication during pregnancy (n = 160) were included in the analysis. RESULTS: On the basis of the MMAS-8, 78 of 160 women (48.8%, 95% CI: 41.1-56.4%) demonstrated low adherence during pregnancy. The rates of low adherence were 51.3% for medication for anxiety, 47.2% for depression, and 42.9% for other psychiatric disorders. Smoking during pregnancy, elevated antidepressant risk perception (risk≥6), and depressive symptoms were associated with a significant 3.9-, 2.3-, and 2.5-fold increased likelihood of low medication adherence, respectively. Women on psychotropic polytherapy were less likely to demonstrate low adherence. The belief that the benefit of pharmacotherapy outweighed the risks positively correlated (r = .282) with higher medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one of two pregnant women using psychotropic medication demonstrated low adherence in pregnancy. Life-style factors, risk perception, depressive symptoms, and individual beliefs are important factors related to adherence to psychotropic medication in pregnancy.
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Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia is recognized as a major cause of coronary heart disease (CHD). Emerged evidence suggests that the combination of triglycerides (TG) and waist circumference can be used to predict the risk of CHD. However, considering the known limitations of TG, non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL = Total cholesterol - HDL cholesterol) cholesterol and waist circumference model may be a better predictor of CHD. PURPOSE: The Framingham Offspring Study data were used to determine if combined non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference is equivalent to or better than TG and waist circumference (hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype) in predicting risk of CHD. METHODS: A total of3,196 individuals from Framingham Offspring Study, aged ~ 40 years old, who fasted overnight for ~ 9 hours, and had no missing information on nonHDL cholesterol, TG levels, and waist circumference measurements, were included in the analysis. Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive ability of non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine the association between the joint distributions of non-HDL cholesterol, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; TG, waist circumference, and non-fatal CHD; and the joint distribution of non-HDL cholesterol and TG by waist circumference strata, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, and hypertension status. RESULTS: The ROC AUC associated with non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference and TG and waist circumference are 0.6428 (CI: 0.6183, 0.6673) and 0.6299 (CI: 0.6049, 0.6548) respectively. The difference in the ROC AVC is 1.29%. The p-value testing if the difference in the ROC AVCs between the two models is zero is 0.10. There was a strong positive association between non-HDL cholesterol and the risk for non-fatal CHD within each TO levels than that for TO levels within each level of nonHDL cholesterol, especially in individuals with high waist circumference status. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the model including non-HDL cholesterol and waist circumference may be superior at predicting CHD compared to the model including TO and waist circumference.
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Youth have been found to engage in various risk-taking behaviours at higher rates than any other age group. However, there is a lack of research on the division between adaptive and maladaptive risk behaviours among adolescents and emerging adults. Adaptive risk-taking behaviours may present youth with ways to successfully partake in the risk behaviours that they are naturally inclined to engage in. The relationship between activity engagement and positive youth development has been extensively studied and cited as a way to expose youth to positive experiences and promote successful development. However, the relationship between activity engagement and risk behaviours among youth has yetto be studied in depth. This study investigated the potential relationship between various adaptive and maladaptive risk behaviours and activity engagement among youth, through an indirect link through five mediator variables. These potential mediators represented the three systems in Jessor's Problem Behaviour Theory. Participants included 276 youth (M = 19.06 years, SD = 1.60, 89.1 % female) from Brock University. Results revealed that activity engagement significantly predicted greater adaptive social risk behaviours among youth. However, there was no mediating effect through the problem behaviour systems. Correlations revealed that being male was associated with more maladaptive risk behaviours and fewer adaptive risk behaviours than females. Additionally, behavioural engagement specifically related to less maladaptive physical health risks and psychological engagement related to greater adaptive social risks. Overall, these findings suggest that activity engagement may be differentially related to the various types of risk-taking and gender associations may exist between the various types and dimensions of risk behaviours, but future work is needed to understand the variables that may explain such relationships.