Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007) (Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market crisis (1997–2007))

A tanulmány nem az aktuális hitelpiaci válság enyhítésének kérdésével foglalkozik, hanem az amerikai gazdaság elmúlt négy évtizedének általános és az utolsó tíz évének konkrét beruházási-megtakarítási és növekedési tendenciáit igyekszik feltárni. Azt vizsgálja, hogy milyen mélyebb, belföldi eredetű szerkezeti okai vannak a nemzetközivé dagadt jelzáloghitel-válságnak. A cikk a nyitott gazdaság külső finanszírozással összefüggő mérlegazonosságainak alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy az ingatlanpiaci visszaesés és a kibocsátás zsugorodása az Egyesült Államok gazdaságában már több mint másfél évtizede kialakult kedvezőtlen, de még tovább romló belföldi megtakarítási folyamatok következménye. A jelzálogpiac krízise és a lakásépítés drámai visszaesése a túlfogyasztásra és túlhitelezésre ösztönző pénzügyi környezet eredménye. A lakáspiaci és a hitelezési ciklusok pénzügyi innovációkkal történő megnyújtása inkább növelte, mint csökkentette a kibocsátásingadozás érzékenységét. A legfőbb hitelezők Kína, Japán, Németország inkább dolláralapú amerikai vállalati felvásárlásokkal ellensúlyozták a dollárgyengülésből elszenvedett veszteségeiket. 1997-2007 között az Amerikából külföldön befektetett dolláraktívák - javarészt a valuta leértékelődése nyomán - jelentős hozamemelkedést élveztek, és számottevően tompították a belföldön képződött jövedelmek csökkenését. A dollárleértékelődés az eszköz- (és nemcsak az áruexport) oldalon is előnyöket hozott számos nagyvállalatnak. / === / Rather than dealing with the immediate policy steps to dampen the crisis, this paper attempts to reveal the worsening savings/consumption pattern of the US economy over the last ten years. Based on the closed logic of open-economy GDP-accounting, it argues that the current crisis is deeply rooted in shrinking public and private savings trends discernible as early as 1997. The current mortgage-market crisis and deep fall in new residential housing are products of a distorted financial environment that encourages over-borrowing and over-consumption. Expansion of the credit cycle through successive financial innovations has increased, not decreased output volatility. But the main foreign lenders to the US—Japan, China and Germany—have managed to offset their losses on US securities by buying into US companies. Large US firms have also benefited from rapid dollar depreciation as USD-denominated yields on their foreign assets experienced strong run-ups. The weak dollar has also helped American firms with large assets on foreign markets. So there were strong benefits for the US, not just on the goods-export side, but on the asset side, an aspect rarely emphasized.

An evaluation of child welfare inservice training: The relative effectiveness of substance abuse content in improving worker knowledge and attitudes

Given the seriousness of substance abuse as a child welfare problem, the purpose of this study was to examine the relative effectiveness of an inservice training curriculum for child welfare workers. The training was designed to improve worker knowledge and attitudes in working with substance abusing families. Seventy (70) child welfare workers from public and private agencies in two south Florida counties participated in a pretest/posttest control group design that also trained and retested the control group. The literature review supports that the general preparedness of child welfare workers for the issues presented by substance abusing families is in question. Confounding this problem is a lack of understanding of substance abuse dynamics, worker biases, and predispositions. The two research hypotheses focused on whether inservice training could increase worker knowledge and improve worker attitudes in working with this population. Training delivery was in the form of a five-day inservice focusing on an array of substance abuse knowledge and attitudinal topics. Separate knowledge and attitude instruments were developed for the research and were administered, before and after training, to a purposive sample of participants that were randomly assigned to the experimental and control groups. The data analysis supported the research hypotheses but raised a question. Specifically, the experimental group demonstrated significant improvement in posttest scores on both instruments after receiving the training; whereas the control group, with training withheld, also demonstrated a significant improvement at posttest, but only on the knowledge instrument. Although the question was unanswered, when examined at a more critical significance level, only the experimental group remained significant. The hypotheses were reconfirmed when, after training and retesting, the control group also displayed significant improvement on both instruments. The findings support the conclusion that this substance abuse inservice was effective in improving worker knowledge and attitudes regarding working with substance abusing families. As an implication for social work practice, it suggests that similar inservice training can be a viable training resource when formal substance abuse training is unavailable. Additional research is suggested regarding to what degree increased substance abuse knowledge and improved worker attitudes correlate with improved practice.

Occupational stress in private schools: A teacher profile

The purpose of this study was threefold. The primary purpose was to develop a stress profile for teachers in private schools. This study also addressed two exploratory issues. The first, consisted of an examination of the possible differences in the levels of on-the-job stress among teachers in different types of private schools. A second issue was to discuss the findings on private school in light of the extant literature on public schools, specifically using the data collected by Fimain to develop the Teacher Stress Inventory. This study was conducted utilizing 316 full time teachers from seven schools from six different states.^ The instrument employed in this study was the Teacher Stress Inventory (TSI) developed by Fimian (1988). The TSI is a 10 factor, 49 item self-report measure. The 10 factors consist of five Stress Sources and five Stress measure. The 10 factors consist of five Stress Sources and five Stress Manifestations subscales. The mean for these 10 factors yields the stress construct termed "Total Stress." Of the 437 surveys mailed, 316 usable surveys, i.e., 72.3%, were returned.^ The results suggest that private school teachers experience moderate levels of stress. The mean score was 2.27 indicating a lower than average stress level as measured by the TSI. Comparisons between types of private schools revealed that there were no significant differences between the stress levels of teachers in boarding and nonboarding schools. Teachers in large schools experience significantly higher levels of stress than teachers in small and medium size schools. However, the measurable difference between them translates into a very small difference in terms of the real stress levels of these teachers in their professional lives. A significant difference was also found between the stress levels of public $(M=2.60)$ and private school teachers $(M=2.27).$ Both means fall within the moderate range, however, while private school teachers experience lower than average levels of stress, the stress levels of teachers in public schools falls in the higher than average range.^ Recommendations for reducing stress levels in both private and public schools are presented as well as suggestions for future research. ^

The political economy of inequality and growth: Essays on sovereign debt, democracy and saving

This dissertation addresses three issues in the political economy of growth literature. The first study empirically tests the hypothesis that income inequality influences the size of a country's sovereign debt for a sample of developing countries for the period 1970–1990. The argument examined is that governments tend to yield to popular pressures to engage in redistributive policies, partially financed by foreign borrowing. Facing increased risk of default, international creditors limit the credit they extend, with the result that borrowing countries invest less and grow at a slower pace. The findings do not seem to support the negative relationship between inequality and sovereign debt, as there is evidence of increases in multilateral, countercyclical flows until the mid 1980s in Latin America. The hypothesis would hold for the period 1983–1990. Debt flows and levels seem to be positively correlated with growth as expected. ^ The second study empirically investigates the hypothesis that pronounced levels of inequality lead to unconsolidated democracies. We test the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between inequality and democracy for a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1970–2000, where democracy appears to consolidate at some intermediate level of inequality. We find that the nonmonotonic relationship holds using instrumental variables methods. Bolivia seems to be a case of unconsolidated democracy. The positive relationship between per capita income and democracy disappears once fixed effects are introduced. ^ The third study explores the nonlinear relationship between per capita income and private saving levels in Latin America. Several estimation methods are presented; however, only the estimation of a dynamic specification through a state-of-the-art general method of moments estimator yields consistent estimates with increased efficiency. Results support the hypothesis that income positively affects private saving, while system GMM reveals nonlinear effects at income levels that exceed the ones included in this sample for the period 1960–1994. We also find that growth, government dissaving, and tightening of credit constraints have a highly significant and positive effect on private saving. ^

Private higher education policy in Ohio, 1980--2006: A case study demonstrating the usefulness of Zumeta's public policy posture model

This study describes the case of private higher education in Ohio between 1980 and 2006 using Zumeta's (1996) model of state policy and private higher education. More specifically, this study used case study methodology and multiple sources to demonstrate the usefulness of Zumeta's model and illustrate its limitations. Ohio served as the subject state and data for 67 private, 4-year, degree-granting, Higher Learning Commission-accredited institutions were collected. Data sources for this study included the National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Data System as well as database information and documents from various state agencies in Ohio, including the Ohio Board of Regents. ^ The findings of this study indicated that the general state context for higher education in Ohio during the study time period was shaped by deteriorating economic factors, stagnating population growth coupled with a rapidly aging society, fluctuating state income and increasing expenditures in areas such as corrections, transportation and social services. However, private higher education experienced consistent enrollment growth, an increase in the number of institutions, widening involvement in state-wide planning for higher education, and greater fiscal support from the state in a variety of forms such as the Ohio Choice Grant. This study also demonstrated that private higher education in Ohio benefited because of its inclusion in state-wide planning and the state's decision to grant state aid directly to students. ^ Taken together, this study supported Zumeta's (1996) classification of Ohio as having a hybrid market-competitive/central-planning policy posture toward private higher education. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that Zumeta's model is a useful tool for both policy makers and researchers for understanding a state's relationship to its private higher education sector. However, this study also demonstrated that Zumeta's model is less useful when applied over an extended time period. Additionally, this study identifies a further limitation of Zumeta's model resulting from his failure to define "state mandate" and the "level of state mandates" that allows for inconsistent analysis of this component. ^

Not getting by: Poverty management and homelessness in Miami

Urban inequality has emerged as one of the dominant themes of modern life and globalization. More than three million people experienced homelessness in the United States last year; in Miami-Dade, more than 15,000 individuals were homeless. Surviving extreme poverty, and exiting or avoiding homelessness, involves negotiating a complex mix of public and private assistance. However, a range of factors influence what types of help are available and how they can be accessed. Frequently, larger social structures determine which resource are available, leaving many choices entirely out of the individual's control. For single men, who are ineligible for many benefits, homelessness can be difficult to avoid and even harder to exit. My study seeks to better understand how adult, minority men living in extreme poverty in Miami-Dade negotiate their daily survival. Specific research questions address: Do black and Hispanic men who are homeless or at risk of homelessness have different personal characteristics and different experiences in avoiding or exiting homelessness? How does Miami's response to extreme poverty/homelessness, including availability of public benefits and public and private service organizations, either maximize or constrain the choices available to this population? And, what is the actual experience of single, adult men who are homeless or at risk of homelessness, in negotiating their daily survival? A mixed methods approach combines quantitative survey data from 7,605 homeless men, with qualitative data from 54 semi-structured interviews incorporating the visual ethnography techniques of Photo Elicitation Interviewing. Results show the differences experienced by black and Hispanic men who are poor and homeless in Miami. Findings also highlight how the community's official and unofficial responses to homelessness intersect with the actual experiences of the persons targeted by the policies and programs, challenging preconceived notions regarding the lives of persons living in extreme poverty. It adds to the existing body of literature by focusing on the urban Miami context, emphasizing disparities amongst racial and ethnic groups. Findings are intended to provide an empirically grounded thesis that humanizes the subjects and illuminates their personal experiences, helping to inform public policy around the needs of extremely poor populations.

It takes an institution's village to retain a student: A comprehensive look at two early warning system undergraduate retention programs and administrators' perceptions of students' experiences and the retention services they provide students in the early warning system retention programs

Institutions have implemented many campus interventions to address student persistence/retention, one of which is Early Warning Systems (EWS). However, few research studies show evidence of interventions that incorporate noncognitive factors/skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes in the EWS. A qualitative study (phenomenological interview and document analysis) of EWS at both a public and private 4-year Florida university was conducted to explore EWS through the eyes of the administrators of the ways administrators make sense of students' experiences and the services they provide and do not provide to assist students. Administrators' understanding of noncognitive factors and the executive skills subset and their contribution to retention and the executive skills development of at-risk students were also explored. Hossler and Bean's multiple retention lenses theory/paradigms and Perez's retention strategies were used to guide the study. Six administrators from each institution who oversee and/or assist with EWS for first time in college undergraduate students considered academically at-risk for attrition were interviewed. Among numerous findings, at Institution X: EWS was infrequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS did not work together to share students' information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify students' issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess, track, and monitor students' issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution's EWS did address students' executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, but did not address students' psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes. Among numerous findings, at Institution Y: EWS was frequently identified as a service, EWS training was not conducted, numerous cognitive and noncognitive issues/deficits were identified for students, and services/critical departments such as EWS worked together to share students' information to benefit students. Assessment measures were used to identify, track, and monitor students' issues/deficits; however, they were not used to assess students' issues/deficits. Additionally, the institution's EWS addressed students' executive skills function beyond time management and organizational skills, and psychotherapy/psycho-educational processes. Based on the findings, Perez's retention strategies were not utilized in EWS at Institution X, yet were collectively utilized in EWS at Institution Y, to achieve Hossler and Bean's retention paradigms. Future research could be designed to test the link between engaging in the specific promising activities identified in this research (one-to-one coaching, participation in student success workshops, academic contracts, and tutoring) and student success (e.g., higher GPA, retention). Further, because this research uncovered some concern with how to best handle students with physical and psychological disabilities, future research could link these same promising strategies for improving student performance for example among ADHD students or those with clinical depression.

Teachers' experiences in and perceptions of their 12th-grade British literature classrooms

The purpose of this study was to understand the experiences and perceptions of 12th-grade literature teachers about curriculum, Post-Colonial literature, and students. Theories posed by Piaget (1995), Vygotsky (1995), and Rosenblatt (1995) formed the framework for this micro-ethnographic study. Seven teachers from public and private schools in South Florida participated in this two-phase study; three teachers in Phase I and four in Phase II. All participants completed individual semi-structured interviews and demographic surveys. In addition, four of the teachers were observed teaching. The analysis yielded three themes and two sub-themes: (a) knowledge concerned teachers' knowledge of British literature content and Post-Colonial authors and their literature; (b) freedom described teachers' freedom to choose how to teach their content. Included in this theme was dilemmas associated with 12th-grade classrooms which described issues that were pertinent to the 12th-grade teacher and classroom that were revealed by the study; and (c) thoughts about students described teachers' perceptions about students and how literature might affect the students. Two subthemes of knowledge were as follows:(1) text complexity described teacher responses to a Post-Colonial text's complexity and (2) student desirability/teachability described teachers' perception about how desirable Post-Colonial texts would be to students and whether teachers would be willing to teach these texts. The researcher offers recommendations for understanding factors associated with 12th-grade teachers perceptions and implications for enhancing the 12th-grade experience for teachers and curriculum, based on this study: (a) build teacher morale and capacity, (b) treat all students as integral components of the teaching and learning process; teachers in this study thought teaching disenfranchised learners was a form of punishment meted out by the administration, and (c) include more Post-Colonial authors in school curricula in colleges and schools as most teachers in this study did not study this type of literature nor knew how to teach it.

Global Capitalism, Immigrant Labor, and the Struggle for Justice

Around the world borders are militarized, states are stepping up repressive anti-immigrant controls, and native publics are turning immigrants into scapegoats for the spiraling crisis of global capitalism. The massive displacement and primitive accumulation unleashed by free trade agreements and neo-liberal policies, as well as state and “private” violence has resulted in a virtually inexhaustible immigrant labor reserve for the global economy. State controls over immigration and immigrant labor have several functions for the system: 1) state repression and criminalization of undocumented immigration make immigrants vulnerable and deportable and therefore subject to conditions of super-exploitation, super-control and hyper-surveillance; 2) anti-immigrant repressive apparatuses are themselves ever more important sources of accumulation, ranging from private for-profit immigrant detention centers, to the militarization of borders, and the purchase by states of military hardware and systems of surveillance. Immigrant labor is extremely profitable for the transnational corporate economy; 3) the anti-immigrant policies associated with repressive state apparatuses help turn attention away from the crisis of global capitalism among more privileged sectors of the working class and convert immigrant workers into scapegoats for the crisis, thus deflecting attention from the root causes of the crisis and undermining working class unity. This article focuses on structural and historical underpinnings of the phenomenon of immigrant labor in the new global capitalist system and on how the rise of a globally integrated production and financial system, a transnational capitalist class, and transnational state apparatuses, have led to a reorganization of the world market in labor, including deeper reliance on a rapidly expanding reserve army of immigrant labor and a vicious new anti-immigrant politics. It looks at the United States as an illustration of the larger worldwide situation with regard to immigration and immigrant justice. Finally, it explores the rise of an immigrant justice movement around the world, observes the leading role that immigrant workers often play in worker’s struggles and that a mass immigrant rights movement is at the cutting edge of the struggle against transnational corporate exploitation. We call for replacing the whole concept of national citizenship with that of global citizenship as the only rallying cry that can assure justice and equality for all.

University City or Little Managua? Studentification and Housing Renewal in Sweetwater, Florida

The “University City project” is a public-private partnership between Florida International University (FIU), the City of Sweetwater, and private investors. The project focuses on redeveloping certain areas of Sweetwater near FIU with the goal of enticing members of the university community to become residents. Building on previous research findings regarding how redevelopment prospects in the City of Sweetwater are affecting residents of the Li’l Abner Mobile Home Park, I examine how these changes are affecting residents in the immediate vicinity of the University. Using a combination of semi-structured interviews and participant observation, I seek to answer the following questions: How do Sweetwater residents feel about development projects in the community of Sweetwater? In what ways do these changes affect their lives? How powerful or powerless do they feel in the face of these changes, or how much say do they believe they have in their implementation? This research will add depth and context to the emerging interdisciplinary study of the “studentification” phenomenon, a form of gentrification that is centered on students, which has received little attention in the United States.

Castles in the air: the life, times and influence of the Reverend Moses Harvey (1820-1901).

The period from 1874 to 1901 was a time of significant transition in the economic and political life of Newfoundland. Twenty years into responsible government and with Confederation on the backburner, the colony’s politicians turned their attention to economic diversification, landward development and carving out the island’s place in the British Empire. The period saw both economic prosperity and retrenchment; the construction of a trans-insular railway; the adoption of policies to foster agriculture, forestry, manufacturing and mining; and diplomatic efforts to resolve France’s outstanding claims on the northwest coast of the island. At the same time, the government made an attempt to intervene directly in its primary industry, the fisheries. It created a Fisheries Commission in 1889 that recommended conservation measures and artificial propagation as ways to restore the health of some of the island’s fish stocks. They also proposed new methods of curing, packaging and marketing Newfoundland’s cod, as well as a complete overhaul of the truck system. A major player in both the public and private debates surrounding all of these subjects was the Reverend Moses Harvey. Along with being minister of the Free Church of Scotland in St. John’s, Harvey was one of Newfoundland’s most active promoters in the late nineteenth century. He served as the media mouthpiece for both Prime Minister William Whiteway and Prime Minister Robert Thorburn; editing the Evening Mercury – the official organ of the Liberal Party and then the Reform Party – from 1882 to 1883 and 1885 until 1890. As well, Harvey wrote regular columns on Newfoundland issues for newspapers in London, New York, Boston, Montreal, Toronto, and Halifax. He also produced numerous books, articles, encyclopedia entries, and travel guides outlining the island’s attractions and its vast economic potential. In short, Harvey made a significant contribution in shaping the way residents and the outside world viewed Newfoundland during this period. This thesis examines late nineteenth-century Newfoundland through the writing of Moses Harvey. The biographical approach offers a fuller, more nuanced account of some of the major historical themes of the period including the politics of progress, opening up the interior, railway construction and attitudes toward the fisheries. It also provides an insider’s prospective on what led to some of the major political decisions, policy positions or compromises taken by the Whiteway and Thorburn governments. Finally, a more detailed review of Harvey’s work exposes the practical and political differences that he had with people like D.W. Prowse and Bishop Michael Howley. While these so-called “boomers” in Newfoundland’s historiography agreed on broad themes, they parted ways over what should be done with the fisheries and how best to channel the colony’s growing sense of nationalism.

Work-life Balance and Gender Regime After the Economic Transition

Work-life balance (WLB) is a key issue in our societies in which there is increasing pressure to be permanently available on demand and to work more intensively, and when due to technological change the borders between work and private life appear to be dissolving. However, the social, institutional and normative frames of a region have a huge impact on how people experience work and private life, where the borders between these spheres lie and how much control individuals have in managing these borders. Based on these arguments, this editorial to the special issue Work-life balance/imbalance: individual, organisational and social experiences in Intersections. EEJSP draws attention to the social institutions, frameworks and norms which have an effect on experience, practices and expectations about work-life balance. Concerning the time horizon, this editorial focuses on the change of regime as a reference point since socialist and post-socialist eras differ significantly, although there is still some continuity between them. The authors of this introduction offer an overview of the situation in CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) based mainly on examples of Visegrad countries.

Histories and Historiographies of Juvenile Delinquency in Nineteenth-Century England

This thesis explores the history of juvenile delinquency in England during the decades bracketing the nineteenth century’s turn and how modern historians have analyzed this period. The purported birth of juvenile delinquency during this tumultuous period is widely attributed by both historians and Victorians to the explosive growth in England’s urban population. Contemporary statistics of criminal prosecutions confirmed emergent literary tropes that viewed childhoods spent on city streets as inevitably corrupting. Public policy and private charity for more than a century thereafter would recommend removal from the city’s corrupting cultural influences to a highly romanticized vision of rural space as healing innocence. This thesis challenges the juxtaposition of country and city on which such explanations of juvenile delinquency rest. Utilizing the neglected testimony of magistrates, constables, rural residents, and juvenile criminals themselves, it will demonstrate that rural England also suffered from increasing juvenile crime in this period. It will illuminate the complex social, economic, and political dynamics responsible for the oft-cited statistical gap between rural and urban arrest rates, showing that the latter were in neither case transparent measures of criminal activity. Crime was on the rise in English rural counties as transformed by industrial capitalism as were England’s booming cities, suggesting that historians who continue to emphasize the dichotomy between the city and the country have not only recycled a Victorian narrative but also limited their own understandings of the time.

Eliciting and Aggregating Forecasts When Information is Shared

Using the wisdom of crowds---combining many individual forecasts to obtain an aggregate estimate---can be an effective technique for improving forecast accuracy. When individual forecasts are drawn from independent and identical information sources, a simple average provides the optimal crowd forecast. However, correlated forecast errors greatly limit the ability of the wisdom of crowds to recover the truth. In practice, this dependence often emerges because information is shared: forecasters may to a large extent draw on the same data when formulating their responses.

To address this problem, I propose an elicitation procedure in which each respondent is asked to provide both their own best forecast and a guess of the average forecast that will be given by all other respondents. I study optimal responses in a stylized information setting and develop an aggregation method, called pivoting, which separates individual forecasts into shared and private information and then recombines these results in the optimal manner. I develop a tailored pivoting procedure for each of three information models, and introduce a simple and robust variant that outperforms the simple average across a variety of settings.

In three experiments, I investigate the method and the accuracy of the crowd forecasts. In the first study, I vary the shared and private information in a controlled environment, while the latter two studies examine forecasts in real-world contexts. Overall, the data suggest that a simple minimal pivoting procedure provides an effective aggregation technique that can significantly outperform the crowd average.

Understanding Patients’ Needs and Healthcare Seeking Behavior in Rural Southern India: The Comparison of Providers through Patients’ Perceptions and Cost Issues

This study explores patients’ needs in rural Thanjavur, southern India through understanding how people with diabetes choose providers and perceive care-seeking experience. To measure perception, the study surveyed people regarding six common barriers to care-seeking behavior, selected from both literature and local expert interview. Ninety-one percent of the sampled population goes to public or private allopathic providers out of the six presented providers. The low socioeconomic group and people with more complications or comorbidities are more likely to go to private allopathic providers. What is more, there is no difference between public and private allopathic providers in patients’ perception of care except for perceived cost. Positive perceptions in both providers are very common except for perceptions in blood-sugar management, distance to facilities, and cost of care. Sixty-six percent of patients perceived their blood-sugar control to fluctuate or have no change versus improved control. Twenty-seven percent of patients perceived the distance to facilities as unreasonable, and sixty-two percent of patients perceived the cost as high for them. The results suggest that cost may affect low socioeconomic people’s choice of care significantly. However, for people in middle and higher socioeconomic groups, cost does not appear to be a major factor. For qualitative text analyses, physician’s behavior and reputation emerge as themes, which require further studies.