Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations.

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO2 changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought-tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO2 concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought-tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low-latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO2 concentration on C3 photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO2 concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO2 concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO2 effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial-interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and humidity delay leaf fall in Betula pendula, but not in Alnus glutinosa or Populus tremula × tremuloides

Context: Anthropogenic activity has increased the level of atmospheric CO2, which is driving an increase of global temperatures and associated changes in precipitation patterns. At Northern latitudes, one of the likely consequences of global warming is increased precipitation and air humidity. Aims: In this work, the effects of both elevated atmospheric CO2 and increased air humidity on trees commonly growing in northern European forests were assessed. Methods: The work was carried out under field conditions by using Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) and Free Air Humidity Manipulation (FAHM) systems. Leaf litter fall was measured over 4 years (FACE) or 5 years (FAHM) to determine the effects of FACE and FAHM on leaf phenology. Results: Increasing air humidity delayed leaf litter fall in Betula pendula, but not in Populus tremula × tremuloides. Similarly, under elevated atmospheric CO2, leaf litter fall was delayed in Betula pendula, but not in Alnus glutinosa. Increased CO2 appeared to interact with periods of low precipitation in summer and high ozone levels during these periods to effect leaf fall. Conclusions: This work shows that increased CO2 and humidity delay leaf fall, but this effect is species specific.

Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Tuning self-assembled nanostructures through enzymatic degradation of a peptide amphiphile

The enzymatic cleavage of a peptide amphiphile (PA) is investigated. The self-assembly of the cleaved products is distinct from that of the PA substrate. The PA C16-KKFFVLK is cleaved by α-chymotrypsin at two sites leading to products C16-KKF with FVLK and C16-KKFF with VLK. The PA C16-KKFFVLK forms nanotubes and helical ribbons at room temperature. Both PAs C16-KKF and C16-KKFF corresponding to cleavage products instead self-assemble into 5-6 nm diameter spherical micelles, while peptides FVLK and VLK do not adopt well-defined aggregate structures. The secondary structures of the PAs and peptides are examined by FTIR and circular dichroism spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction. Only C16-KKFFVLK shows substantial β-sheet secondary structure, consistent with its self-assembly into extended aggregates, based on PA layers containing hydrogen-bonded peptide headgroups. This PA also exhibits a thermoreversible transition to twisted tapes on heating.

Mean climate and variability of the atmosphere and ocean on an aquaplanet

Numerical experiments are described that pertain to the climate of a coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice system in the absence of land, driven by modern-day orbital and CO2 forcing. Millennial time-scale simulations yield a mean state in which ice caps reach down to 55° of latitude and both the atmosphere and ocean comprise eastward- and westward-flowing zonal jets, whose structure is set by their respective baroclinic instabilities. Despite the zonality of the ocean, it is remarkably efficient at transporting heat meridionally through the agency of Ekman transport and eddy-driven subduction. Indeed the partition of heat transport between the atmosphere and ocean is much the same as the present climate, with the ocean dominating in the Tropics and the atmosphere in the mid–high latitudes. Variability of the system is dominated by the coupling of annular modes in the atmosphere and ocean. Stochastic variability inherent to the atmospheric jets drives variability in the ocean. Zonal flows in the ocean exhibit decadal variability, which, remarkably, feeds back to the atmosphere, coloring the spectrum of annular variability. A simple stochastic model can capture the essence of the process. Finally, it is briefly reviewed how the aquaplanet can provide information about the processes that set the partition of heat transport and the climate of Earth.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Daytime CO2 urban surface fluxes from airborne measurements, eddy-covariance observations and emissions inventory in Greater London

Airborne measurements within the urban mixing layer (360 m) over Greater London are used to quantify CO2 emissions at the meso-scale. Daytime CO2 fluxes, calculated by the Integrative Mass Boundary Layer (IMBL) method, ranged from 46 to 104 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 for four days in October 2011. The day-to-day variability of IMBL fluxes is at the same order of magnitude as for surface eddy-covariance fluxes observed in central London. Compared to fluxes derived from emissions inventory, the IMBL method gives both lower (by −37%) and higher (by 19%) estimates. The sources of uncertainty of applying the IMBL method in urban areas are discussed and guidance for future studies is given.

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.

[M(CO)4(2,2′-bipyridine)] (M = Cr, Mo, W) as efficient catalysts for electrochemical reduction of CO2 to CO at a gold electrode

Group 6 complexes of the type [M(CO)4(bpy)] (M=Cr, Mo, W) are capable of behaving as electrochemical catalysts for the reduction of CO2 at potentials less negative than those for the reduction of the radical anions [M(CO)4(bpy)].−. Cyclic voltammetric, chronoamperometric and UV/Vis/IR spectro-electrochemical data reveal that five-coordinate [M(CO)3(bpy)]2− are the active catalysts. The catalytic conversion is significantly more efficient in N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) compared to tetrahydrofuran, which may reflect easier CO dissociation from 1e−-reduced [M(CO)4(bpy)].− in the former solvent, followed by second electron transfer. The catalytic cycle may also involve [M(CO)4(H-bpy)]− formed by protonation of [M(CO)3(bpy)]2−, especially in NMP. The strongly enhanced catalysis using an Au working electrode is remarkable, suggesting that surface interactions may play an important role, too.

A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

Yield and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in winter wheat under elevated CO2: A 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment

Fossil fuel combustion and deforestation have resulted in a rapid increase in atmospheric [CO2] since the 1950’s, and it will reach about 550 μmol mol−1 in 2050. Field experiments were conducted at the Free-air CO2 Enrichment facility in Beijing, China. Winter wheat was grown to maturity under elevated [CO2] (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) and ambient [CO2] (415 ± 16 μmol mol−1), with high nitrogen (N) supply (HN, 170 kg N ha−1) and low nitrogen supply (LN, 100 kg N ha−1) for three growing seasons from 2007 to 2010. Elevated [CO2] increased wheat grain yield by 11.4% across the three years. [CO2]-induced yield enhancements were 10.8% and 11.9% under low N and high N supply, respectively. Nitrogen accumulation under elevated [CO2] was increased by 12.9% and 9.2% at the half-way anthesis and ripening stage across three years, respectively. Winter wheat had higher nitrogen demand under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2], and grain yield had a stronger correlation with plant N uptake after anthesis than before anthesis at high [CO2]. Our results suggest that regulating on the N application rate and time, is likely important for sustainable grain production under future CO2 climate.

Enhancing the recovery of tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus) oil by mechanical pressing: moisture content, particle size, high pressure and enzymatic pre-treatment effects

Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus) tuber contains oil that is high in monounsaturated fatty acids, and this oil makes up about 23% of the tuber. The study aimed at evaluating the impact of several factors and enzymatic pre-treatment on the recovery of pressed tiger nut oil. Smaller particles were more favourable for pressing. High pressure pre-treatment did not increase oil recovery but enzymatic treatment did. The highest yield obtained by enzymatic treatment prior to mechanical extraction was 33 % on a dry defatted basis, which represents a recovery of 90 % of the oil. Tiger nut oil consists mainly of oleic acid; its acid and peroxide values reflect the high stability of the oil.

Interacting controls on innate sources of CO2 efflux from a calcareous arid zone soil under experimental acidification and wetting

More than half of global soil carbon is stored as carbonates, primarily in arid and semi-arid zones. Climate change models predict more frequent and severe rainfall events in some parts of the globe, many of which are dominated by calcareous soils. Such events trigger substantial increases in soil CO2 efflux. We hypothesised that the primary source of CO2 emissions from calcareous, arid zone soil during a single wetting event is abiotic and that soil acidification and wetting have a positive, potentially interacting, effect. We manipulated soil pH, soil moisture, and controlled soil respiration by gamma irradiating half of an 11 day incubation experiment. All manipulated experimental treatments had a rapid and enormous effect on CO2 emission. Respiration contributed ca. 5% of total CO2 efflux; the major source (carbonate buffering) varied depending on the extent of acidification and wetting. Maximum CO2 efflux occurred when pH was lowest and at intermediate matric potential. CO2 efflux was lowest at native pH when soil was air dry. Our data suggest that there may be an underestimate of soil-atmosphere carbon fluxes in arid ecosystems with calcareous soils. There is also a clear potential that these soils may become net carbon sources depending on changes in rainfall patterns, rainfall acidity, and future land management. Our findings have major implications for carbon cycling in arid zone soil and further study of carbon dynamics in these terrestrial systems at a landscape level will be required if we are to improve global climate and carbon cycling models.

Visual information capture during fixations in reading for children and adults

Two experiments were undertaken to examine whether there is an age-related change in the speed with which readers can capture visual information during fixations in reading. Children’s and adults’ eye movements were recorded as they read sentences that were presented either normally or as “disappearing text”. The disappearing text manipulation had a surprisingly small effect on the children, inconsistent with the notion of an age-related change in the speed with which readers can capture visual information from the page. Instead, we suggest that differences between adults and children are related to the level of difficulty of the sentences for readers of different ages.