Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Effects of four different single exercise sessions on lipids, lipoproteins, and lipoprotein lipase

The purpose of this study was to determine the threshold of exercise energy expenditure necessary to change blood lipid and lipoprotein concentrations and lipoprotein lipase activity (LPLA) in healthy, trained men. On different days, 11 men (age, 26.7 +/- 6.1 yr; body fat, 11.0 +/- 1.5%) completed four separate, randomly assigned, submaximal treadmill sessions at 70% maximal O-2 consumption. During each session 800, 1,100, 1,300, or 1,500 kcal were expended. Compared with immediately before exercise, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration was significantly elevated 24 h after exercise (P < 0.05) in the 1,100-, 1,300-, and 1,500-kcal sessions. HDL-C concentration was also elevated (P < 0.05) immediately after and 48 h after exercise in the 1,500-kcal session. Compared with values 24 h before exercise, LPLA. was significantly greater (P < 0.05) 24 h after exercise in the 1,100-, 1,300-, and 1,500-kcal sessions and remained elevated 48 h after exercise in the 1,500-kcal session. These data indicate that, in healthy, trained men, 1,100 kcal of energy expenditure are necessary to elicit increased HDL-C concentrations. These HDL-C changes coincided with increased LPLA.

Regulation of breast cancer cells by hormones and growth factors : effects on proliferation and basement membrane invasiveness

The current understanding of the regulation of breast cancer cell proliferation and invasiveness by hormones and growth factors is reviewed. It has been shown that polypeptide growth factors are involved in hormone-independent breast cancer, and are sometimes oestrogen-regulated in hormone-responsive models. Basement-membrane invasiveness, relating to the metastatic potential of these cells, is also stimulated by oestrogen in hormone-dependent models, elevated in hormone-independent models, and is growth factor sensitive. Further understanding of the differential effects of growth factors on breast cancer cell proliferation and invasiveness should facilitate better therapeutic exploitation of regulation at this level.

Localization of fibronectin in the rat testis : effects of serum and dibutyryl cyclic AMP on fibronectin deposition by peritubular myoid cells in culture

The peritubular zone of the rat testis has an extensive extracellular matrix (ECM). Fibronectin (FN) is distributed primarily in the basal lamina of the seminiferous tubule boundary tissue and is synthesized by peritubular myoid cells. Several extracellular changes are mediated by growth factors and these changes occur at the time of hormone mediated testicular development, particularly in the peritubular zone. The effects of serum or dibutyryl cyclic AMP (cAMP) on FN production by the mesenchymal peritubular myoid cells were evaluated. Rats of various ages (10, 15, 20, 40 and 80 days) were employed for immunofluorescent localization of rat testicular FN in frozen sections. In all age groups tested, FN was primarily present in a broad layer around each seminiferous tubule, and blood vessel, and in variable distribution throughout the interstitial stroma. By day 20 there was no clear distinction in FN staining between the peritubular zone and the interstitial tissue. This indicates an involvement of FN in the ECM developments which occur in the peritubular zone of the testis at this time. The peritubular myoid cells were isolated from 20-22 day old rat testis and cultured on glass coverslips. These cells were grown to confluence with 10% fetal calf serum (FCS) in medium until day 4 and then subcultured to have secondary monocultures maintained with or without serum. By means of immunofluorescence and cytochemistry using avidin-biotin peroxidase complex it was observed that peritubular myoid cells were positive for FN and most of the FN was localized in the perinuclear region. Subcultured peritubular myoid cells maintained for 4 days in medium containing FCS developed an extensive interconnecting FN matrix. In the presence of 0.5 mM cAMP in culture, FN became localized along the filamentous process of peritubular myoid cells and more prominently in the areas of triangulated multi-cell aggregates as well as on the surface of the contracted small spherical cells. The addition of cAMP in the presence of FCS, also caused a noticeable change in the staining pattern; FN was detected along the filamentous process developing into a complex network of cells encased in an extensive matrix. It would appear that the translocation of FN in the cytoplasmic extensions of peritubular myoid cells may be a direct consequence of morphological changes associated with metabolic regulation of cAMP. This may also be related to the puberty associated development of in vivo changes in the ECM produced by peritubular myoid cells.

Pattern analysis of the diversity of morphological plant attributes and herbage yield in a world collection of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) germplasm characterised in a summer moisture stress environment of Australia

Information on the variation available for different plant attributes has enabled germplasm collections to be effectively utilised in plant breeding. A world sourced collection of white clover germplasm has been developed at the White Clover Resource Centre at Glen Innes, New South Wales. This collection of 439 accessions was characterised under field conditions as a preliminary study of the genotypic variation for morphological attributes; stolon density, stolon branching, number of nodes. number of rooted nodes, stolon thickness, internode length, leaf length, plant height and plant spread, together with seasonal herbage yield. Characterisation was conducted on different batches of germplasm (subsets of accessions taken from the complete collection) over a period of five years. Inclusion of two check cultivars, Haifa and Huia, in each batch enabled adjustment of the characterisation data for year effects and attribute-by-year interaction effects. The component of variance for seasonal herbage yield among batches was large relative to that for accessions. Accession-by-experiment and accession-by-season interactions for herbage yield were not detected. Accession mean repeatability for herbage yield across seasons was intermediate (0.453). The components of genotypic variance among accessions for all attributes, except plant height, were larger than their respective standard errors. The estimates of accession mean repeatability for the attributes ranged from low (0.277 for plant height) to intermediate (0.544 for internode length). Multivariate techniques of clustering and ordination were used to investigate the diversity present among the accessions in the collection. Both cluster analysis and principal component analysis suggested that seven groups of accessions existed. It was also proposed from the pattern analysis results that accessions from a group characterised by large leaves, tall plants and thick stolons could be crossed with accessions from a group that had above average stolon density and stolon branching. This material could produce breeding populations to be used in recurrent selection for the development of white clover cultivars for dryland summer moisture stress environments in Australia. The germplasm collection was also found to be deficient in genotypes with high stolon density, high number of branches high number of rooted nodes and large leaves. This warrants addition of new germplasm accessions possessing these characteristics to the present germplasm collection.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Business planning in emerging firms : uses and effects

Business planning is at the core of entrepreneurship as it has implications for opportunity discovery and exploitation. This thesis' objectives are to disentangle the relationships between business planning and venture emergence to reconcile previous inconsistent findings. It reveals that the formalization of planning, the effort invested in the venture and the revision of the plan influence success for entrepreneurs in the process of launching their firm. This thesis provides generalizable results about the phenomenon of business planning by using a longitudinal random sample of emerging firms.

Effects of wireless sensor network uncertainties on output-only modal analysis employing merged data of multiple tests

The use of Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) for vibration-based Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) has become a promising approach due to many advantages such as low cost, fast and flexible deployment. However, inherent technical issues such as data asynchronicity and data loss have prevented these distinct systems from being extensively used. Recently, several SHM-oriented WSNs have been proposed and believed to be able to overcome a large number of technical uncertainties. Nevertheless, there is limited research verifying the applicability of those WSNs with respect to demanding SHM applications like modal analysis and damage identification. Based on a brief review, this paper first reveals that Data Synchronization Error (DSE) is the most inherent factor amongst uncertainties of SHM-oriented WSNs. Effects of this factor are then investigated on outcomes and performance of the most robust Output-only Modal Analysis (OMA) techniques when merging data from multiple sensor setups. The two OMA families selected for this investigation are Frequency Domain Decomposition (FDD) and data-driven Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI-data) due to the fact that they both have been widely applied in the past decade. Accelerations collected by a wired sensory system on a large-scale laboratory bridge model are initially used as benchmark data after being added with a certain level of noise to account for the higher presence of this factor in SHM-oriented WSNs. From this source, a large number of simulations have been made to generate multiple DSE-corrupted datasets to facilitate statistical analyses. The results of this study show the robustness of FDD and the precautions needed for SSI-data family when dealing with DSE at a relaxed level. Finally, the combination of preferred OMA techniques and the use of the channel projection for the time-domain OMA technique to cope with DSE are recommended.

Differential effects of aging on spatial learning through exploratory navigation and map reading

It has been shown that abilities in spatial learning and memory are adversely affected by aging. The present study was conducted to investigate whether increasing age has equal consequences for all types of spatial learning or impacts certain types of spatial learning selectively. Specifically, two major types of spatial learning, exploratory navigation and map reading, were contrasted. By combining a neuroimaging finding that the medial temporal lobe (MTL) is especially important for exploratory navigation and a neurological finding that the MTL is susceptible to age-related atrophy, it was hypothesized that spatial learning through exploratory navigation would exhibit a greater decline in later life than spatial learning through map reading. In an experiment, young and senior participants learned locations of landmarks in virtual environments either by navigating in them in the first-person perspective or by seeing aerial views of the environments. Results showed that senior participants acquired less accurate memories of the layouts of landmarks than young participants when they navigated in the environments, but the two groups did not differ in spatial learning performance when they viewed the environments from the aerial perspective. These results suggest that spatial learning through exploratory navigation is particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of aging, whereas elderly adults may be able to maintain their map reading skills relatively well.

Sequential versus simultaneous viewing of an environment : effects of focal attention to individual object locations on visual spatial learning

We investigated memories of room-sized spatial layouts learned by sequentially or simultaneously viewing objects from a stationary position. In three experiments, sequential viewing (one or two objects at a time) yielded subsequent memory performance that was equivalent or superior to simultaneous viewing of all objects, even though sequential viewing lacked direct access to the entire layout. This finding was replicated by replacing sequential viewing with directed viewing in which all objects were presented simultaneously and participants’ attention was externally focused on each object sequentially, indicating that the advantage of sequential viewing over simultaneous viewing may have originated from focal attention to individual object locations. These results suggest that memory representation of object-to-object relations can be constructed efficiently by encoding each object location separately, when those locations are defined within a single spatial reference system. These findings highlight the importance of considering object presentation procedures when studying spatial learning mechanisms.

Path information effects in visual and proprioceptive spatial learning

Objects in an environment are often encountered sequentially during spatial learning, forming a path along which object locations are experienced. The present study investigated the effect of spatial information conveyed through the path in visual and proprioceptive learning of a room-sized spatial layout, exploring whether different modalities differentially depend on the integrity of the path. Learning object locations along a coherent path was compared with learning them in a spatially random manner. Path integrity had little effect on visual learning, whereas learning with the coherent path produced better memory performance than random order learning for proprioceptive learning. These results suggest that path information has differential effects in visual and proprioceptive spatial learning, perhaps due to a difference in the way one establishes a reference frame for representing relative locations of objects.

Role of serotonin via 5-HT2B receptors in the reinforcing effects of MDMA in mice

The amphetamine derivative 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, ecstasy) reverses dopamine and serotonin transporters to produce efflux of dopamine and serotonin, respectively, in regions of the brain that have been implicated in reward. However, the role of serotonin/dopamine interactions in the behavioral effects of MDMA remains unclear. We previously showed that MDMA-induced locomotion, serotonin and dopamine release are 5-HT(2B) receptor-dependent. The aim of the present study was to determine the contribution of serotonin and 5-HT(2B) receptors to the reinforcing properties of MDMA. We show here that 5-HT(2B) (-/-) mice do not exhibit behavioral sensitization or conditioned place preference following MDMA (10 mg/kg) injections. In addition, MDMA-induced reinstatement of conditioned place preference after extinction and locomotor sensitization development are each abolished by a 5-HT(2B) receptor antagonist (RS127445) in wild type mice. Accordingly, MDMA-induced dopamine D1 receptor-dependent phosphorylation of extracellular regulated kinase in nucleus accumbens is abolished in mice lacking functional 5-HT(2B) receptors. Nevertheless, high doses (30 mg/kg) of MDMA induce dopamine-dependent but serotonin and 5-HT(2B) receptor-independent behavioral effects. These results underpin the importance of 5-HT(2B) receptors in the reinforcing properties of MDMA and illustrate the importance of dose-dependent effects of MDMA on serotonin/dopamine interactions.

Semiparametric estimates of the supply and demand effects of disability on labor force participation

This paper modifies and uses the semiparametric methods of Ichimura and Lee (1991) on standard cross-section data to decompose the effect of disability on labor force participation into a demand and a supply effect. It shows that straightforward use of Ichimura and Lee leads to meaningless results while imposing monotonicity on the unknown function leads to substantial results. The paper finds that supply effects dominate the demand effects of disability.

The effects of rurality on mental and physical health

The effects of rurality on physical and mental health are examined in analyses of a national dataset, the Community Tracking Survey, 2000-2001, that includes individual level observations from household interviews. We merge it with county level data reflecting community resources and use econometric methods to analyze this multi-level data. The statistical analysis of the impact of the choice of definition on outcomes and on the estimates and significance of explanatory variables in the model is presented using modern econometric methods, and differences in results for mental health and physical health are evaluated. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.