Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Bacteremia due to extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in the CTX-M era: a new clinical challenge.

Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli, particularly those producing CTX-M types of ESBL, are emerging pathogens. Bacteremia caused by these organisms represents a clinical challenge, because the organisms are frequently resistant to the antimicrobials recommended for treatment of patients with suspected E. coli sepsis. METHODS:A cohort study was performed that included all episodes of bloodstream infection due to ESBL-producing E. coli during the period from January 2001 through March 2005. Data on predisposing factors, clinical presentation, and outcome were collected. ESBLs were characterized using isoelectric focusing, polymerase chain reaction, and sequencing. RESULTS: Forty-three episodes (8.8% of cases of bacteremia due to E. coli) were included; 70% of the isolates produced a CTX-M type of ESBL. The most frequent origins of infection were the urinary (46%) and biliary tracts (21%). Acquisition was nosocomial in 21 cases (49%), health care associated in 14 cases (32%), and strictly community acquired in 8 cases (19%). Thirty-eight percent and 25% of patients had obstructive diseases of the urinary and biliary tracts, respectively, and 38% had recently received antimicrobials. Nine patients (21%) died. Compared with beta-lactam/beta-lactamase-inhibitor and carbapenem-based regimens, empirical therapy with cephalosporins or fluoroquinolones was associated with a higher mortality rate (9% vs. 35%; P=.05) and needed to be changed more frequently (24% vs. 78%; P=.001). CONCLUSIONS: ESBL-producing E. coli is a significant cause of bloodstream infection in hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients in the context of the emergence of CTX-M enzymes. Empirical treatment of sepsis potentially caused by E. coli may need to be reconsidered in areas where such ESBL-producing isolates are present.

Sylvatic triatominae: a new challenge in vector control transmission

Over the last 10 years, Uruguay, Chile and Brazil have been certified as being free from disease transmission by Triatoma infestans, the main domiciliated vector for Chagas disease in the Southern Cone countries. This demonstrates that programmes addressing the vector for the disease's transmission are effective. These programmes have resulted in a dramatic decrease in the incidence of Chagas disease in Latin America. Guatemala was certified a few months ago as being free from disease transmission by Rhodnius prolixus, the main domiciliated vector for Chagas disease in Central American countries. However, the main concern for different countries' current control programmes is the continuity and sustainability of future vector control actions. The prevalence and incidence figures for individuals infected by Trypanosoma cruzi in Mexico and Andean and Central American countries highlights the need for broadened strategies in the struggle against the disease and its vectors. A number of triatomine insects are parasite vectors, each with a different life history. Therefore, it is important that new vector control strategies be proposed, keeping in mind that some species are found in peridomiciliary areas and wild ecotopes. The only viable control strategy is to reduce human interactions with vector insects so that the re-infestation and re-colonisation of human habitats will not take place.

All-around care for patients with Chagas disease: a challenge for the XXI century

In 1987, the University of Pernambuco's Oswaldo Cruz Hospital in Recife, Brazil opened its Chagas Disease and Heart Failure Outpatient Clinic with the aim of providing its patients all-around care through adoption of a biopsychosocial model of care. All-around care involves caring for the patient as a whole human being in the context of the biological, psychological and social factors present, which are an inherent part of the human condition. One prerequisite for the proposed model of care is the participation of a multidisciplinary team of trained technical staff committed to this framework. Although the main focus of the service is on care, teaching and research are also an important part of its work. The Pernambuco Association of Chagas Disease Patients is guided by the same model of care and has been carrying out educational activities relating to the disease, its treatment and support for patients and family members for several years. This Association plays an important role in advocating to public authorities on behalf of patients. The accumulated experience of the past 22 years has shown us that a broad vision of health care can help clinicians and policy makers to make decisions that are more in tune with the everyday reality of the patient, which in turn has a positive impact on adherence to treatment and quality of life.

Comparative evaluation of phenol and thimerosal as preservatives for a candidate vaccine against American cutaneous leishmaniasis

For decades thimerosal has been used as a preservative in the candidate vaccine for cutaneous leishmaniasis, which was developed by Mayrink et al. The use of thimerosal in humans has been banned due to its mercury content. This study addresses the standardization of phenol as a new candidate vaccine preservative. We have found that the proteolytic activity was abolished when the test was conducted using the candidate vaccine added to merthiolate (MtVac) as well as to phenol (PhVac). The Montenegro's skin test conversion rates induced by MtVac and by PhVac was 68.06% and 85.9%, respectively, and these values were statistically significant (p < 0.05). The proliferative response of peripheral mononuclear blood cells shows that the stimulation index of mice immunized with both candidate vaccines was higher than the one in control animals (p < 0.05). The ability of the candidate vaccines to induce protection in C57BL/10 mice against a challenge with infective Leishmania amazonensis promastigotes was tested and the mice immunized with PhVac developed smaller lesions than the mice immunized with MtVac. Electrophoresis of phenol-preserved antigen revealed a number of proteins, which were better preserved in PhVac. These results do in fact encourage the use of phenol for preserving the immunogenic and biochemical properties of the candidate vaccine for cutaneous leishmaniasis.

Ethical issues of human genetic databases : a challenge to classical health research ethics?

[Contents] - Introduction - Selected existing genetic database : distinctive features, ethical problems and the public debate - The ethical debate : principles, values and interests : the ethical foundations of guidelines - Selected issues of consensus and of controversy - Ethical issues of human genetic databases and the future This book compares the new area of biobanking with the tradition of ethically accepted classical research and highlights the distinctive features of existing databases and guidelines

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Acute coronary syndromes or myocarditis in young people: a difficult daily diagnostic challenge

Background: Chest pain (CP) represents about 5% of admissions to emergency departments (ED), even in young people. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and myocarditis are among the most important diagnoses to rule out. Clinical and ECG findings are not specific for either condition and separating both diagnoses is a challenge. Aim of the study: To evaluate the prevalence of ACS and myocarditis in young patients presenting with CP and elevated cardiac biomarkers to the ED and to determinate the differences in their clinical presentation. Methods: Retrospective study of all consecutive patients < 40 years old admitted to our ED from January 2009 to June 2011 for CP with elevated serum troponin concentration. All clinical, angiographic and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) data from the local database was reviewed. Clinical follow-up was obtained to assess all cause mortality, myocardial infarction and re-hospitalisation for CP. Results: 1588 patients < 40 years old were admitted to the ED with chest pain. 49 (3%) patients presenting with an elevated troponin I (> 0.09ug/l) were included in the study. 32.7% (16/49) were diagnosed with ACS (11 STEMI and 5 NSTEMI) and 59.2% (29/49) with myocarditis. Among the 29 patients with myocarditis, 17 presented with typical subepicardial late enhancement on CMR and 12 were diagnosed based on clinical presentation (6 had no complementary workup, 3 normal coronary angiogram and 3 inconclusive CMR). 8.1% (4/49) of patients had other diagnoses. Compared to patients with myocarditis, ACS patients were older (34.1±3.9 vs 26.9±6.4, p=0.0002) with significantly more cardiovascular risk factors (mean 2.06 vs 0.69, p<0.0001). Diabetes (18.8% vs 0%, p=0.004), dyslipidemia (56.3% vs 3.4%, p=0.0001) and family history of coronary artery disease (CAD) (37.5% vs 10.3%, p=0.050) were significantly associated with ACS. No significant association was found for smoking, hypertension and obesity. Fever (>38°C) or recent viral illness were present in 75.9% (22/29) of patients with myocarditis, and in 0% of ACS patients. During follow-up (mean 19.9 months ± 8.6), only 2 patients with myocarditis were re-admitted for chest pain. Conclusions: In this study, 32.7% of patients < 40 year old admitted to an ED with CP and elevated troponin had an ACS. Key clinical factors include diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history of CAD, fever or recent viral illness, and may help to differentiate ACS from myocarditis.

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given