News Shocks and Business Cycles: Bridging the Gap from Different Methodologies

An important disconnect in the news driven view of the business cycle formalized by Beaudry and Portier (2004), is the lack of agreement between different—VAR and DSGE—methodologies over the empirical plausibility of this view. We argue that this disconnect can be largely resolved once we augment a standard DSGE model with a financial channel that provides amplification to news shocks. Both methodologies suggest news shocks to the future growth prospects of the economy to be significant drivers of U.S. business cycles in the post-Greenspan era (1990-2011), explaining as much as 50% of the forecast error variance in hours worked in cyclical frequencies

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.

Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

(Optimal) Spatial Aggregation in the Determinants of Industrial Location

Empirical studies on the determinants of industrial location typically use variables measured at the available administrative level (municipalities, counties, etc.). However, this amounts to assuming that the effects these determinants may have on the location process do not extent beyond the geographical limits of the selected site. We address the validity of this assumption by comparing results from standard count data models with those obtained by calculating the geographical scope of the spatially varying explanatory variables using a wide range of distances and alternative spatial autocorrelation measures. Our results reject the usual practice of using administrative records as covariates without making some kind of spatial correction. Keywords: industrial location, count data models, spatial statistics JEL classification: C25, C52, R11, R30

Toward a comprehensive conceptualization of business organizations and their members from a sensemaking perspective. Lessons learned from Picassoâeuro?s cubism

Until recently, much of the discussion regarding the type of organization theory needed in management studies focused on normative vs. descriptive roles of management science. Some authors however noticed that even a descriptive theory can have a normative impact. Among others, management theories are used by practitioners to make sense of their identity and roles in given contexts, and so guide their attitude, decision process, and behavior. The sensemaking potential of a theory might in this view represent an important element for predicting the adoption of a theory by practitioners. Accordingly, theories are needed which better grasp the increased complexity of today's business environment in order to be more relevant for practitioners. This article proposes a multi-faceted perspective of organizations. This implies leaving a simplistic view of organizations and building a 'cubist' conception. Picasso's cubism paintings are characterized by the use of multiple perspectives within a single drawing. Similarly, I argue here that managers must learn not only to add multiple responsibilities in their work, but to develop an integrated conception of their managerial identity and of their organizations in which the multiple social and economic dimensions are enmeshed. Social entrepreneurship is discussed as illustration of typical multi-faceted business.

Focus sur l'échantillonnage de la poussière sédimentée avec des lingettes électrostatiques dans l'évaluation de l'exposition aux micro-organismes

L'exposition aux microorganismes en environnement intérieur a été associée à la survenue de troubles respiratoires et symptômes allergiques chez les personnes exposées (1). Investiguer la relation dose-réponse entre exposition et effets sur la santé est essentiel dans la prévention de l'apparition de ces symptômes. Cependant, la mesure de l'exposition par prélèvement actif des bioaérosols est coûteuse et contraignante à mettre en place sur un grand nombre de sites en parallèle. C'est pourquoi les méthodes de prélèvement passif de la poussière sédimentée sont de plus en plus souvent envisagées pour répondre à cette problématique. Pour valider l'efficacité d'évaluation de l'exposition par ces dernières méthodes, il est nécessaire de montrer que la poussière sédimentée est bien représentative de la poussière inhalable. Le premier article cité dans cette note se propose de répondre à ce point. De plus, il faut identifier les facteurs qui peuvent influencer les concentrations en micro-organismes dans ces poussières sédimentées. Le deuxième article choisi dans cette note répond à ce dernier aspect.

The role of Pten in the Hematopoietic System and the Hematopoietic Stem Cells

Résumé Identification, localisation et activation des cellules souches hématopoiétiques dormantes in vivo Les cellules souches somatiques sont présentes dans la majorité des tissus régénératifs comme la peau, l'épithélium intestinal et le système hématopoiétique. A partir d'une seule cellule, elles ont les capacités de produire d'autres cellules souches du même type (auto-renouvellement) et d'engendrer un ensemble défini de cellules progénitrices différenciées qui vont maintenir ou réparer leur tissu hôte. Les cellules souches adultes les mieux caractérisées sont les cellules souches hématopoiétiques (HSC), localisées dans la moelle osseuse. Un des buts de mon travail de doctorat était de caractériser plus en profondeur la localisation des HSCs endogènes in vivo. Pour ce faire, la technique "label retaining assay", se basant sur la division peu fréquentes et sur la dormance des cellules souches, a été utilisée. Après un marquage des souris avec du BrdU (analogue à l'ADN) suivi d'une longue période sans BrdU, les cellules ayant incorporés le marquage ("label retaining cells" LCRs) ont pu être identifiées dans la moelle osseuse. Ces cellules LCRs étaient enrichies 300 fois en cellules de phenotype HSC et, en utilisant de la cytofluorométrie, il a pu être montré qu'environ 15% de toutes les HSCs d'une souris restent dormantes durant plusieures semaines. Ces HSCs dormantes à long terme ne sont probablement pas impliquées dans la maintenance de 'hématopoièse. Par contre, on assiste à l'activation rapide de ces HSCs dormantes lors d'une blessure, comme une ablation myéloide. Elles re-entrent alors en cycle cellulaire et sont essentielles pour une génération rapide des cellules progénitrices et matures qui vont remplacer les cellules perdues. De plus, la détection des LCRs, combinée avec l'utilisation du marqueur de HSCs c-kit, peut être utilisée pour la localisation des HSCs dormantes présentes dans la paroi endostéale de la cavité osseuse. De manière surprenante, les LCRs c-kit+ ont surtout étés trouvées isolées en cellule unique, suggérant que le micro-environement spécifique entourant et maintenant les HSCs, appelé niche, pourrait être très réduit et abriter une seule HSC par niche. Rôles complexes du gène supresseur de tumeur Pten dans le système hématopoiétique La phosphatase PTEN disparaît dans certains cancers héréditaires ou sporadiques humains, comme les gliomes, les cancers de l'utérus ou du sein. Pten inhibe la voie de signalisation de la PI3-kinase et joue un rôle clé dans l'apoptose, la croissance, la prolifération et la migration cellulaire. Notre but était d'étudier le rôle de Pten dans les HSC normale et durant la formation de leucémies. Pour ce faire, nous avons généré un modèle murin dans lequel le gène Pten peut être supprimé dans les cellules hématopoiétiques, incluant les HSCs. Ceci a été possible en croissant l'allèle conditionnelle ptenflox soit avec le transgène MxCre inductible par l'interféron α soit avec le transgène Scl-CreERt inductible par le tamoxifen. Ceci permet la conversion de l'allèle ptenflox en l'allèle nul PtenΔ dans les HSCs et les autres types cellulaires hématopoiétiques. Les souris mutantes Pten développent une splénomégalie massive causée par une expansion dramatiques de toutes les cellules myéloides. De manière interessante, alors que le nombre de HSCs dans la moelle osseuse diminue progressivement, le nombre des HSCs dans la rate augmente de manière proportionnelle. Etrangement, les analyses de cycle cellulaire ont montrés que Pten n'avait que peu ou pas d'effet sur la dormance des HSCs ou sur leur autorenouvellement. En revanche, une augmentation massive du niveau de la cytokine de mobilisation G-CSF a été détéctée dans le serum sanguin, suggérant que la suppression de Pten stimulerait la mobilisation et la migration des HSC de la moelle osseuse vers la rate. Finallement, la transplantation de moelle osseuse délétée en Pten dans des souris immuno-déficientes montre que Pten fonctionnerait comme un suppresseur de tumeur dans le système hématopoiétique car son absence entraîne la formation rapide de leucémies lymphocytaires. Summary Identification, localization and activation of dormant hematopoietic stun cells in vivo Somatic stem cells are present in most self-renewing tissues including the skin, the intestinal epithelium and the hematopoietic system. On a single cell basis they have the capacity to produce more stem cells of the same phenotype (self-renewal) and to give rise to a defined set of mature differentiated progeny, responsible for the maintenance or repair of the host tissue. The best characterized adult stem cell is the hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) located in the bone marrow. One goal of my thesis work was to further characterize the location of endogenous HSCs in vivo. To do this, a technique called "label retaining assay» was used which takes advantage of the fact that stem cells (including HSCs) divide very infrequently and can be dormant for months. After labeling mice with the DNA analogue BrdU followed by a long BrdU free "chase", BrdU "label retaining cells" (CRCs) could be identified in the bone marrow. These CRCs were 300-fold enriched for phenotypic HSCs and by using flow cytometry analysis it could be shown that about 15% of all HSCs in the mouse are dormant for many weeks. Our results suggest that these long-term dormant HSCs are unlikely to be involved in homeostatic maintenance. However they are rapidly activated and reenter the cell cycle in response to injury signals such as myeloid ablation. In addition, detection of LRCs in combination with the HSC marker c-Kit could be used to locate engrafted dormant HSCs close to the endosteal lining of the bone marrow cavities. Most surprisingly, c-Kit+LRCs were found predominantly as single cells suggesting that the specific stem cell maintaining microenvironment, called niche, has limited space and may house only single HSCs. Complex roles of the tumor suppressor gene Pten in the hematopoietic system. The phosphatase PTEN is lost in hereditary and sporadic forms of human cancers, including gliomas, endometrial and breast cancers. Pten inhibits the PI3-kina.se pathway and plays a key role in apoptosis, cell growth, proliferation and migration. Our aim was to study the role of Pten in normal HSCs and during leukemia formation. To do this, we generated a mouse model in which the Pten gene can be deleted in hematopoietic cells including HSCs. This was achieved by crossing the conditional ptenflox allele with either the interferona inducible MxCre or the tamoxifen inducible Scl-CreERT transgene. This allowed the conversion of the ptenflox allele into a pterr' null allele in HSCs and other hematopoietic cell types. As a result Pten mutant mice developed massive splenomegaly due to a dramatic expansion of all myeloid cells. Interestingly, while the number of bone marrow HSCs progressively decreased, the number of HSCs in the spleen increased to a similar extent. Unexpectedly, extensive cell cycle analysis showed that Pten had little or no effect on HSC dormancy or HSC self-renewal. Instead, dramatically increased levels of the mobilizing cytokine G-CSF were detected in the blood serum suggesting that loss-of Pten stimulates mobilization and migration of HSC from the BM to the spleen. Finally, transplantation of Pten deficient BM cells into immuno-compromised mice showed that Pten can function as a tumor suppressor in the hematopoietic system and that its absence leads to the rapid formation of T cell leukemia.

A simple and economic slide micro-immunoenzymatic (Micro-SIA) test for epidemiological studies of toxoplasmosis

A slide micro-immunoenzymatic assay (micro-SIA) to detectantibodies to non-particulate Toxoplasma gondii antigens is described. This assay allows the diagnosis of toxoplasmosis infection in about 1 hr. Twenty-four determinations can be performed per slide. Five hundred ng of antigen and 5 or 10 µl drop of each reactive are necessary per well. The clear contrast of colours obtained for negative and positive sera after the test is finished, allows direct discrimination of the results. However, it is possible to quantify the results of the reaction using a minireader. Sera dilution cutoff value, determined as themost frequent titre for the general population, is 1:100. The toxoplasma micro-SIA correlates well with indirect immunofluorescence (IIF), its sensitivity is atleast three times as much as IIF. The test has an intra and inter assay variation coefficient of 5.46 per cent and of 6.24 per cent respectively. Sera obtained at random from argentinian people were analyzed and a 56 per cent of infection was found. The main features of the Toxoplasma micro-SIA are its simplicity, sensitivity, reproducibility, and the virtual absence of background making it very suitable for screening tests.

Dukes B colorectal cancer: distinct genetic categories and clinical outcome based on proximal or distal tumor location.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether tumor location proximal or distal to the splenic flexure is associated with distinct molecular patterns and can predict clinical outcome in a homogeneous group of patients with Dukes B (T3-T4, N0, M0) colorectal cancer. It has been hypothesized that proximal and distal colorectal cancer may arise through different pathogenetic mechanisms. Although p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations occur frequently in distal tumors, another form of genomic instability associated with defective DNA mismatch repair has been predominantly identified in the proximal colon. To date, however, the clinical usefulness of these molecular characteristics remains unproven. METHODS: A total of 126 patients with a lymph node-negative sporadic colon or rectum adenocarcinoma were prospectively assessed with the endpoint of death by cancer. No patient received either radiotherapy or chemotherapy. p53 protein was studied by immunohistochemistry using DO-7 monoclonal antibody, and p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations were detected by single strand conformation polymorphism assay. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 67 months, the overall five-year survival was 70 percent. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 tumors (47 percent), and was more frequent in distal than in proximal tumors (55 vs. 21 percent; chi-squared test, P < 0.001). For the whole group, p53 protein expression correlated with poor survival in univariate and multivariate analysis (log-rank test, P = 0.01; hazard ratio = 2.16; 95 percent confidence interval = 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Distal colon tumors and rectal tumors exhibited similar molecular patterns and showed no difference in clinical outcome. In comparison with distal colorectal cancer, proximal tumors were found to be statistically significantly different on the following factors: mucinous content (P = 0.008), degree of histologic differentiation (P = 0.012), p53 protein expression, and gene mutation (P = 0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Finally, patients with proximal tumors had a marginally better survival than those with distal colon or rectal cancers (log-rank test, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: In this series of Dukes B colorectal cancers, p53 protein expression was an independent factor for survival, which also correlated with tumor location. Eighty-six percent of p53-positive tumors were located in the distal colon and rectum. Distal colon and rectum tumors had similar molecular and clinical characteristics. In contrast, proximal neoplasms seem to represent a distinct entity, with specific histopathologic characteristics, molecular patterns, and clinical outcome. Location of the neoplasm in reference to the splenic flexure should be considered before group stratification in future trials of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with Dukes B tumors.

Aproximació a la figura dels Business Angels

Els business angels són persones físiques que inverteixen una part dels seus diners en empreses joves, tot just acabades de crear, en alguns casos fins i tot ajuden a crear-les. El nom d’àngels té el seu origen en els rics filantrops de Nova York que finançaven les obres que s’estrenaven a Broadway. Aquests filantrops invertien els seus diners en una obra de teatre, pel plaer de contribuir a la cultura, molt sovint no arribaven a recuperar mai aquests diners. Els business angels, no són filantrops, inverteixen esperant guanyar diners, però al igual que els àngels de Broadway, els mou alguna cosa més que els diners, ja que està àmpliament documentat que darrera d’aquestes inversions hi ha també raons no financeres, com ara fomentar l’esperit emprenedor o fins i tot la cerca de diversió. Podríem dir que el terme “business angel” es va encunyar a principis dels 80 als EUA, per tant aviat farà 30 anys, no obstant, encara avui, la majoria de catalans no coneixen el significat d’aquest terme. A Catalunya i Espanya anem terriblement retardats en l’estudi i la promoció d’aquesta figura en relació a països com els EUA i el Regne Unit, però també massa enrera en relació a països com Finlàndia, Suècia, Noruega i Alemanya. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és doncs oferir una complerta aproximació a aquesta figura del business angel, una figura que entenem clau en el desenvolupament empresarial i per tant una figura que cal potenciar a tots els nivells. Per tal de contextualitzar aquesta important figura, el treball parteix de l’anàlisi de la relació existent entre emprenedoria i creixement econòmic, s’endinsa després en el capital risc, per presentar finalment qui és i que fa el business angel. El treball intenta també mostrar l’abús d’usos i la inconsistència de les definicions que es donen del terme “business angel” i per tant la gran confusió que tot això genera.

"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.