Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability

Decadal and longer timescale variability in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has considerable impact on regional climate, yet it remains unclear what fraction of this variability is potentially predictable. This study takes a new approach to this question by demonstrating clear physical differences between NAO variability on interannual-decadal (<30 year) and multidecadal (>30 year) timescales. It is shown that on the shorter timescale the NAO is dominated by variations in the latitude of the North Atlantic jet and storm track, whereas on the longer timescale it represents changes in their strength instead. NAO variability on the two timescales is associated with different dynamical behaviour in terms of eddy-mean flow interaction, Rossby wave breaking and blocking. The two timescales also exhibit different regional impacts on temperature and precipitation and different relationships to sea surface temperatures. These results are derived from linear regression analysis of the Twentieth Century and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and of a high-resolution HiGEM General Circulation Model control simulation, with additional analysis of a long sea level pressure reconstruction. Evidence is presented for an influence of the ocean circulation on the longer timescale variability of the NAO, which is particularly clear in the model data. As well as providing new evidence of potential predictability, these findings are shown to have implications for the reconstruction and interpretation of long climate records.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

Harnessing the ancestors: mutuality, uncertainty and ritual practice in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

In the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, chronic economic uncertainty has seen social relations stretched to breaking point. Informants speak of a 'war between men and women'. While grinding poverty, death in the shape of the 'axe' (HIV/AIDS) and suspicion stalk the land, and the project of building the umzi (homestead) falters, hope for the future and with it, trust between people, leaches away. One response to such uncertainty is a turn to ritual. Through a nearly relentless schedule of ritual activity which invokes the ancestors and the Christian deity in various forms, Xhosa people attempt to dam up trust, secure ongoing investment in the rural homestead and sustain ties of reciprocity both among rural people and between them and their urban kin. It is also through the staging of these rituals that women, acting together and in support of each other, are increasingly assertive – often in the face of a violent, rearguard opposition from men - in their efforts to exercise agency over the differentiated, fragmented and fragile social and economic relationships within their homesteads and across their villages.

Operating models for a multi-polar world: balancing global integration and local responsiveness

Purpose – Multinationals have always needed an operating model that works – an effective plan for executing their most important activities at the right levels of their organization, whether globally, regionally or locally. The choices involved in these decisions have never been obvious, since international firms have consistently faced trade‐offs between tailoring approaches for diverse local markets and leveraging their global scale. This paper seeks a more in‐depth understanding of how successful firms manage the global‐local trade‐off in a multipolar world. Design methodology/approach – This paper utilizes a case study approach based on in‐depth senior executive interviews at several telecommunications companies including Tata Communications. The interviews probed the operating models of the companies we studied, focusing on their approaches to organization structure, management processes, management technologies (including information technology (IT)) and people/talent. Findings – Successful companies balance global‐local trade‐offs by taking a flexible and tailored approach toward their operating‐model decisions. The paper finds that successful companies, including Tata Communications, which is profiled in‐depth, are breaking up the global‐local conundrum into a set of more manageable strategic problems – what the authors call “pressure points” – which they identify by assessing their most important activities and capabilities and determining the global and local challenges associated with them. They then design a different operating model solution for each pressure point, and repeat this process as new strategic developments emerge. By doing so they not only enhance their agility, but they also continually calibrate that crucial balance between global efficiency and local responsiveness. Originality/value – This paper takes a unique approach to operating model design, finding that an operating model is better viewed as several distinct solutions to specific “pressure points” rather than a single and inflexible model that addresses all challenges equally. Now more than ever, developing the right operating model is at the top of multinational executives' priorities, and an area of increasing concern; the international business arena has changed drastically, requiring thoughtfulness and flexibility instead of standard formulas for operating internationally. Old adages like “think global and act local” no longer provide the universal guidance they once seemed to.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

The slowly evolving background state of the atmosphere

The theory of wave–mean flow interaction requires a partition of the atmospheric flow into a notional background state and perturbations to it. Here, a background state, known as the Modified Lagrangian Mean (MLM), is defined as the zonally symmetric state obtained by requiring that every potential vorticity (PV) contour lying within an isentropic layer encloses the same mass and circulation as in the full flow. For adiabatic and frictionless flow, these two integral properties are time-invariant and the MLM state is a steady solution of the primitive equations. The time dependence in the adiabatic flow is put into the perturbations, which can be described by a wave-activity conservation law that is exact even at large amplitude. Furthermore, the effects of non-conservative processes on wave activity can be calculated from the conservation law. A new method to calculate the MLM state is introduced, where the position of the lower boundary is obtained as part of the solution. The results are illustrated using Northern Hemisphere ERA-Interim data. The MLM state evolves slowly, implying that the net non-conservative effects are weak. Although ‘adiabatic eddy fluxes’ cannot affect the MLM state, the effects of Rossby-wave breaking, PV filamentation and subsequent dissipation result in sharpening of the polar vortex edge and meridional shifts in the MLM zonal flow, both at tropopause level and on the winter stratospheric vortex. The rate of downward migration of wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings is shown to be given by the vertical scale associated with polar vortex tilt divided by the time-scale for wave dissipation estimated from the wave-activity conservation law. Aspects of troposphere–stratosphere interaction are discussed. The new framework is suitable to examine the climate and its interactions with disturbances, such as midlatitude storm tracks, and makes a clean partition between adiabatic and non-conservative processes.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Rethinking the Russian Revolution as historical divide

This monograph is the product of a series of workshops held in the UK and the USA, the premise of which was to suggest that 1917 is the wrong departure point for a full analysis of the social and cultural particularities of the Soviet Union. Breaking away from the binary of ‘change and continuity’, however, we asked how the new and the old (tradition and modernity) came together to make the Soviet experience ‘across 1917’. Building on these workshops, we have gathered 15 scholars from America, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East to contribute to this edition. This volume examines, among other things, the social and cultural frameworks that helped determine Soviet perceptions of social duty, justice, and governance.

Are visual threats prioritized without awareness? A critical review and meta analysis involving 3 behavioral paradigms and 2696 observers

Given capacity limits, only a subset of stimuli 1 give rise to a conscious percept. Neurocognitive models suggest that humans have evolved mechanisms that operate without awareness and prioritize threatening stimuli over neutral stimuli in subsequent perception. In this meta analysis, we review evidence for this ‘standard hypothesis’ emanating from three widely used, but rather different experimental paradigms that have been used to manipulate awareness. We found a small pooled threat-bias effect in the masked visual probe paradigm, a medium effect in the binocular rivalry paradigm and highly inconsistent effects in the breaking continuous flash suppression paradigm. Substantial heterogeneity was explained by the stimulus type: the only threat stimuli that were robustly prioritized across all three paradigms were fearful faces. Meta regression revealed that anxiety may modulate threat biases, but only under specific presentation conditions. We also found that insufficiently rigorous awareness measures, inadequate control of response biases and low level confounds may undermine claims of genuine unconscious threat processing. Considering the data together, we suggest that uncritical acceptance of the standard hypothesis is premature: current behavioral evidence for threat-sensitive visual processing that operates without awareness is weak.

Extensive microsatellite diversity in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax

The population structure of Plasmodium vivax remains elusive. The markers of choice for large-scale population genetic studies of eukaryotes, short tandem repeats known as microsatellites, have been recently reported to be less polymorphic in R vivax. Here we investigate the microsatellite diversity and geographic structure in P vivax, at both local and global levels, using 14 new markers consisting of tri- or tetranucleotide repeats. The local-level analysis, which involved 50 field isolates from Sri Lanka, revealed unexpectedly high diversity (average virtual heterozygosity [H-E], 0.807) and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium in this region of low malaria endemicity. Multiple-clone infections occurred in 60% of isolates sampled in 2005. The global-level analysis of field isolates or monkey-adapted strains identified 150 unique haplotypes among 164 parasites from four continents. Individual P. vivax isolates could not be unambiguously assigned to geographic populations. For example, we found relatively low divergence among parasites from Central America, Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania, but substantial differentiation between parasites from the same continent (South Asia and Southeast Asia) or even from the same country (Brazil). Parasite relapses, which may extend the duration of P. vivax carriage in humans, are suggested to facilitate the spread of strains across continents, breaking down any pre-existing geographic structure. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Selecting salient objects in real scenes: An oscillatory correlation model

Attention is a critical mechanism for visual scene analysis. By means of attention, it is possible to break down the analysis of a complex scene to the analysis of its parts through a selection process. Empirical studies demonstrate that attentional selection is conducted on visual objects as a whole. We present a neurocomputational model of object-based selection in the framework of oscillatory correlation. By segmenting an input scene and integrating the segments with their conspicuity obtained from a saliency map, the model selects salient objects rather than salient locations. The proposed system is composed of three modules: a saliency map providing saliency values of image locations, image segmentation for breaking the input scene into a set of objects, and object selection which allows one of the objects of the scene to be selected at a time. This object selection system has been applied to real gray-level and color images and the simulation results show the effectiveness of the system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New exotic charmonium states

In the last years many states in the charmonium mass region were discovery by BABAR, Belle and CDF collaborations I discuss some of these discoveries, and how the QCD Sum Rule approach can be used to understand the structure of these states

SU(3) mass-splittings of heavy-baryons in QCD

We extract directly (for the first time) the charmed (C = 1) and bottom (B = -1) heavy-baryons (spin 1/2 and 3/2) mass-splittings due to SU(3) breaking using double ratios of QCD spectral sum rules (QSSR) in full QCD, which are less sensitive to the exact value and definition of the heavy quark mass, to the perturbative radiative corrections and to the QCD continuum contributions than the simple ratios commonly used for determining the heavy baryon masses. Noticing that most of the mass-splittings are mainly controlled by the ratio kappa <(S) over bars >/<(d) over bard > of the condensate, we extract this ratio, by allowing 1 sigma deviation from the observed masses of the Xi(c.b) and of the Omega(c). We obtain: kappa = 0.74(3), which improves the existing estimates: kappa = 0.70(10) from light hadrons. Using this value, we deduce M(Omega b) = 6078.5(27.4) MeV which agrees with the recent CDF data but disagrees by 2.4 sigma with the one from D0. Predictions of the Xi(Q)` and of the spectra of spin 3/2 baryons containing one or two strange quark are given in Table 2. Predictions of the hyperfine splittings Omega(Q)* - Omega(Q) and Xi(Q)* - Xi(Q) are also given in Table 3. Starting for a general choice of the interpolating currents for the spin 1/2 baryons, our analysis favours the optimal value of the mixing angle b similar or equal to (-1/5-0) found from light and non-strange heavy baryons. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sound waves and solitons in hot and dense nuclear matter

Assuming that nuclear matter can be treated as a perfect fluid, we study the propagation of perturbations in the baryon density. The equation of state is derived from a relativistic mean field model, which is a variant of the non-linear Walecka model. The expansion of the Euler and continuity equations of relativistic hydrodynamics around equilibrium configurations leads to differential equations for the density perturbation. We solve them numerically for linear and spherical perturbations and follow the propagation of the initial pulses. For linear perturbations we find single soliton solutions and solutions with one or more solitons followed by ""radiation"". Depending on the equation of state a strong damping may occur. We consider also the evolution of perturbations in a medium without dispersive effects. In this case we observe the formation and breaking of shock waves. We study all these equations also for matter at finite temperature. Our results may be relevant for the analysis of RHIC data. They suggest that the shock waves formed in the quark gluon plasma phase may survive and propagate in the hadronic phase. (C) 2009 Elseiver. B.V. All rights reserved.

Antiferromagnetic spherical spin-glass model

We study the thermodynamic properties and the phase diagrams of a multi-spin antiferromagnetic spherical spin-glass model using the replica method. It is a two-sublattice version of the ferromagnetic spherical p-spin glass model. We consider both the replica-symmetric and the one-step replica-symmetry-breaking solutions, the latter being the most general solution for this model. We find paramagnetic, spin-glass, antiferromagnetic and mixed or glassy antiferromagnetic phases. The phase transitions are always of second order in the thermodynamic sense, but the spin-glass order parameter may undergo a discontinuous change.