Measuring and Explaining the Increase of Travel Distance : A Multilevel Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sectional Travel Surveys

We want to shed some light on the development of person mobility by analysing the repeated cross-sectional data of the four National Travel Surveys (NTS) that were conducted in Germany since the mid seventies. The above mentioned driving forces operate on different levels of the system that generates the spatial behaviour we observe: Travel demand is derived from the needs and desires of individuals to participate in spatially separated activities. Individuals organise their lives in an interactive process within the context they live in, using given infrastructure. Essential determinants of their demand are the individual's socio-demographic characteristics, but also the opportunities and constraints defined by the household and the environment are relevant for the behaviour which ultimately can be realised. In order to fully capture the context which determines individual behaviour, the (nested) hierarchy of persons within households within spatial settings has to be considered. The data we will use for our analysis contains information on these three levels. With the analysis of this micro-data we attempt to improve our understanding of the afore subsumed macro developments. In addition we will investigate the prediction power of a few classic sociodemographic variables for the daily travel distance of individuals in the four NTS data sets, with a focus on the evolution of this predictive power. The additional task to correctly measure distances travelled by means of the NTS is threatened by the fact that although these surveys measure the same variables, different sampling designs and data collection procedures were used. So the aim of the analysis is also to detect variables whose control corrects for the known measurement error, as a prerequisite to apply appropriate models in order to better understand the development of individual travel behaviour in a multilevel context. This task is complicated by the fact that variables that inform on survey procedures and outcomes are only provided with the data set for 2002 (see Infas and DIW Berlin, 2003).

Molecular testing for fragile X: analysis of 5062 tests from 1105 fragile X families--performed in 12 clinical laboratories in Spain.

Fragile X syndrome is the most common inherited form of intellectual disability. Here we report on a study based on a collaborative registry, involving 12 Spanish centres, of molecular diagnostic tests in 1105 fragile X families comprising 5062 individuals, of whom, 1655 carried a full mutation or were mosaic, three cases had deletions, 1840 had a premutation, and 102 had intermediate alleles. Two patients with the full mutation also had Klinefelter syndrome. We have used this registry to assess the risk of expansion from parents to children. From mothers with premutation, the overall rate of allele expansion to full mutation is 52.5%, and we found that this rate is higher for male than female offspring (63.6% versus 45.6%; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in mothers with intermediate alleles (45-54 repeats), there were 10 cases of expansion to a premutation allele, and for the smallest premutation alleles (55-59 repeats), there was a 6.4% risk of expansion to a full mutation, with 56 repeats being the smallest allele that expanded to a full mutation allele in a single meiosis. Hence, in our series the risk for alleles of <59 repeats is somewhat higher than in other published series. These findings are important for genetic counselling.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in preventable mortality in urban areas of 33 Spanish cities, 1996-2007 (MEDEA project).

Abstract Background: Preventable mortality is a good indicator of possible problems to be investigated in the primary prevention chain, making it also a useful tool with which to evaluate health policies particularly public health policies. This study describes inequalities in preventable avoidable mortality in relation to socioeconomic status in small urban areas of thirty three Spanish cities, and analyses their evolution over the course of the periods 1996–2001 and 2002–2007. Methods: We analysed census tracts and all deaths occurring in the population residing in these cities from 1996 to 2007 were taken into account. The causes included in the study were lung cancer, cirrhosis, AIDS/HIV, motor vehicle traffic accidents injuries, suicide and homicide. The census tracts were classified into three groups, according their socioeconomic level. To analyse inequalities in mortality risks between the highest and lowest socioeconomic levels and over different periods, for each city and separating by sex, Poisson regression were used. Results: Preventable avoidable mortality made a significant contribution to general mortality (around 7.5%, higher among men), having decreased over time in men (12.7 in 1996–2001 and 10.9 in 2002–2007), though not so clearly among women (3.3% in 1996–2001 and 2.9% in 2002–2007). It has been observed in men that the risks of death are higher in areas of greater deprivation, and that these excesses have not modified over time. The result in women is different and differences in mortality risks by socioeconomic level could not be established in many cities. Conclusions: Preventable mortality decreased between the 1996–2001 and 2002–2007 periods, more markedly in men than in women. There were socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in most cities analysed, associating a higher risk of death with higher levels of deprivation. Inequalities have remained over the two periods analysed. This study makes it possible to identify those areas where excess preventable mortality was associated with more deprived zones. It is in these deprived zones where actions to reduce and monitor health inequalities should be put into place. Primary healthcare may play an important role in this process. Keywords: Preventable avoidable mortality, Causes of death, Inequalities in health, Small area analysis

A combined analysis of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality within the EMECAM project.

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO(2), once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 microg/m(3) increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO(2)level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval (CI), -0.003-0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution.

Spatial analysis of the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and drinking water hardness.

Previously published scientific papers have reported a negative correlation between drinking water hardness and cardiovascular mortality. Some ecologic and case-control studies suggest the protective effect of calcium and magnesium concentration in drinking water. In this article we present an analysis of this protective relationship in 538 municipalities of Comunidad Valenciana (Spain) from 1991-1998. We used the Spanish version of the Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF) developed under the European Environment and Health Information System (EUROHEIS) research project. The strategy of analysis used in our study conforms to the exploratory nature of the RIF that is used as a tool to obtain quick and flexible insight into epidemiologic surveillance problems. This article describes the use of the RIF to explore possible associations between disease indicators and environmental factors. We used exposure analysis to assess the effect of both protective factors--calcium and magnesium--on mortality from cerebrovascular (ICD-9 430-438) and ischemic heart (ICD-9 410-414) diseases. This study provides statistical evidence of the relationship between mortality from cardiovascular diseases and hardness of drinking water. This relationship is stronger in cerebrovascular disease than in ischemic heart disease, is more pronounced for women than for men, and is more apparent with magnesium than with calcium concentration levels. Nevertheless, the protective nature of these two factors is not clearly established. Our results suggest the possibility of protectiveness but cannot be claimed as conclusive. The weak effects of these covariates make it difficult to separate them from the influence of socioeconomic and environmental factors. We have also performed disease mapping of standardized mortality ratios to detect clusters of municipalities with high risk. Further standardization by levels of calcium and magnesium in drinking water shows changes in the maps when we remove the effect of these covariates.

Impact of inadequate empirical therapy on the mortality of patients with bloodstream infections: a propensity score-based analysis.

The impact of the adequacy of empirical therapy on outcome for patients with bloodstream infections (BSI) is key for determining whether adequate empirical coverage should be prioritized over other, more conservative approaches. Recent systematic reviews outlined the need for new studies in the field, using improved methodologies. We assessed the impact of inadequate empirical treatment on the mortality of patients with BSI in the present-day context, incorporating recent methodological recommendations. A prospective multicenter cohort including all BSI episodes in adult patients was performed in 15 hospitals in Andalucía, Spain, over a 2-month period in 2006 to 2007. The main outcome variables were 14- and 30-day mortality. Adjusted analyses were performed by multivariate analysis and propensity score-based matching. Eight hundred one episodes were included. Inadequate empirical therapy was administered in 199 (24.8%) episodes; mortality at days 14 and 30 was 18.55% and 22.6%, respectively. After controlling for age, Charlson index, Pitt score, neutropenia, source, etiology, and presentation with severe sepsis or shock, inadequate empirical treatment was associated with increased mortality at days 14 and 30 (odds ratios [ORs], 2.12 and 1.56; 95% confidence intervals [95% CI], 1.34 to 3.34 and 1.01 to 2.40, respectively). The adjusted ORs after a propensity score-based matched analysis were 3.03 and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.60 to 5.74 and 0.98 to 2.98, respectively). In conclusion, inadequate empirical therapy is independently associated with increased mortality in patients with BSI. Programs to improve the quality of empirical therapy in patients with suspicion of BSI and optimization of definitive therapy should be implemented.

Analysis of factors influencing telephone call response rate in an epidemiological study.

Descriptive epidemiology research involves collecting data from large numbers of subjects. Obtaining these data requires approaches designed to achieve maximum participation or response rates among respondents possessing the desired information. We analyze participation and response rates in a population-based epidemiological study though a telephone survey and identify factors implicated in consenting to participate. Rates found exceeded those reported in the literature and they were higher for afternoon calls than for morning calls. Women and subjects older than 40 years were the most likely to answer the telephone. The study identified geographical differences, with higher RRs in districts in southern Spain that are not considered urbanized. This information may be helpful for designing more efficient community epidemiology projects.

Microtubule-associated protein-2 immunoreactivity: a useful tool in the differential diagnosis of low-grade neuroepithelial tumors.

Complex and variable morphological phenotypes pose a major challenge to the histopathological classification of neuroepithelial tumors. This applies in particular for low-grade gliomas and glio-neuronal tumors. Recently, we and others have identified microtubule-associated protein-2 (MAP2) as an immunohistochemical marker expressed in the majority of glial tumors. Characteristic cell morphologies can be recognized by MAP2 immunoreactivity in different glioma entities, i.e., process sparse oligodendroglial versus densely ramified astrocytic elements. Here, we describe MAP2-immunoreactivity patterns in a large series of various neuroepithelial tumors and related neoplasms (n = 960). Immunohistochemical analysis led to the following conclusions: (1) specific pattern of MAP2-positive tumor cells can be identified in 95% of glial neoplasms; (2) ependymal tumors do not express MAP2 in their rosette-forming cell component; (3) tumors of the pineal gland as well as malignant embryonic tumors are also characterized by abundant MAP2 immunoreactivity; (4) virtually no MAP2 expression can be observed in the neoplastic glial component of glio-neuronal tumors, i.e. gangliogliomas; (5) malignant glial tumor variants (WHO grade III or IV) exhibit different and less specific MAP2 staining patterns compared to their benign counterparts (WHO grade I or II); (6) with the exception of melanomas and small cell lung cancers, MAP2 expression is very rare in metastatic and non-neuroepithelial tumors; (7) glial MAP2 expression was not detected in 56 non-neoplastic lesions. These data point towards MAP2 as valuable diagnostic tool for pattern recognition and differential diagnosis of low-grade neuroepithelial tumors.

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing modelsbetween end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework.We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study.We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables thatlay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hiddencomponents, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members.We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained totalvariance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphicalrepresentation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysisof diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, exceptfertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition.This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations areintrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

Prediction of fat-free mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis in young adults from five populations of African origin.

Background/objectives:Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is used in population and clinical studies as a technique for estimating body composition. Because of significant under-representation in existing literature, we sought to develop and validate predictive equation(s) for BIA for studies in populations of African origin.Subjects/methods:Among five cohorts of the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, height, weight, waist circumference and body composition, using isotope dilution, were measured in 362 adults, ages 25-45 with mean body mass indexes ranging from 24 to 32. BIA measures of resistance and reactance were measured using tetrapolar placement of electrodes and the same model of analyzer across sites (BIA 101Q, RJL Systems). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop equations for predicting fat-free mass (FFM), as measured by isotope dilution; covariates included sex, age, waist, reactance and height(2)/resistance, along with dummy variables for each site. Developed equations were then tested in a validation sample; FFM predicted by previously published equations were tested in the total sample.Results:A site-combined equation and site-specific equations were developed. The mean differences between FFM (reference) and FFM predicted by the study-derived equations were between 0.4 and 0.6âeuro0/00kg (that is, 1% difference between the actual and predicted FFM), and the measured and predicted values were highly correlated. The site-combined equation performed slightly better than the site-specific equations and the previously published equations.Conclusions:Relatively small differences exist between BIA equations to estimate FFM, whether study-derived or published equations, although the site-combined equation performed slightly better than others. The study-derived equations provide an important tool for research in these understudied populations.

A novel method for automated classification of epileptiform activity in the human electroencephalogram-based on independent component analysis.

Diagnosis of several neurological disorders is based on the detection of typical pathological patterns in the electroencephalogram (EEG). This is a time-consuming task requiring significant training and experience. Automatic detection of these EEG patterns would greatly assist in quantitative analysis and interpretation. We present a method, which allows automatic detection of epileptiform events and discrimination of them from eye blinks, and is based on features derived using a novel application of independent component analysis. The algorithm was trained and cross validated using seven EEGs with epileptiform activity. For epileptiform events with compensation for eyeblinks, the sensitivity was 65 +/- 22% at a specificity of 86 +/- 7% (mean +/- SD). With feature extraction by PCA or classification of raw data, specificity reduced to 76 and 74%, respectively, for the same sensitivity. On exactly the same data, the commercially available software Reveal had a maximum sensitivity of 30% and concurrent specificity of 77%. Our algorithm performed well at detecting epileptiform events in this preliminary test and offers a flexible tool that is intended to be generalized to the simultaneous classification of many waveforms in the EEG.

BrainCheck - a very brief tool to detect incipient cognitive decline: optimized case-finding combining patient- and informant-based data.

INTRODUCTION: Optimal identification of subtle cognitive impairment in the primary care setting requires a very brief tool combining (a) patients' subjective impairments, (b) cognitive testing, and (c) information from informants. The present study developed a new, very quick and easily administered case-finding tool combining these assessments ('BrainCheck') and tested the feasibility and validity of this instrument in two independent studies. METHODS: We developed a case-finding tool comprised of patient-directed (a) questions about memory and depression and (b) clock drawing, and (c) the informant-directed 7-item version of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Feasibility study: 52 general practitioners rated the feasibility and acceptance of the patient-directed tool. Validation study: An independent group of 288 Memory Clinic patients (mean ± SD age = 76.6 ± 7.9, education = 12.0 ± 2.6; 53.8% female) with diagnoses of mild cognitive impairment (n = 80), probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 185), or major depression (n = 23) and 126 demographically matched, cognitively healthy volunteer participants (age = 75.2 ± 8.8, education = 12.5 ± 2.7; 40% female) partook. All patient and healthy control participants were administered the patient-directed tool, and informants of 113 patient and 70 healthy control participants completed the very short IQCODE. RESULTS: Feasibility study: General practitioners rated the patient-directed tool as highly feasible and acceptable. Validation study: A Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated an algorithm to categorize patient-directed data which resulted in a correct classification rate (CCR) of 81.2% (sensitivity = 83.0%, specificity = 79.4%). Critically, the CCR of the combined patient- and informant-directed instruments (BrainCheck) reached nearly 90% (that is 89.4%; sensitivity = 97.4%, specificity = 81.6%). CONCLUSION: A new and very brief instrument for general practitioners, 'BrainCheck', combined three sources of information deemed critical for effective case-finding (that is, patients' subject impairments, cognitive testing, informant information) and resulted in a nearly 90% CCR. Thus, it provides a very efficient and valid tool to aid general practitioners in deciding whether patients with suspected cognitive impairments should be further evaluated or not ('watchful waiting').

Exome sequencing of index patients with retinal dystrophies as a tool for molecular diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Retinal dystrophies (RD) are a group of hereditary diseases that lead to debilitating visual impairment and are usually transmitted as a Mendelian trait. Pathogenic mutations can occur in any of the 100 or more disease genes identified so far, making molecular diagnosis a rather laborious process. In this work we explored the use of whole exome sequencing (WES) as a tool for identification of RD mutations, with the aim of assessing its applicability in a diagnostic context. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We ascertained 12 Spanish families with seemingly recessive RD. All of the index patients underwent mutational pre-screening by chip-based sequence hybridization and resulted to be negative for known RD mutations. With the exception of one pedigree, to simulate a standard diagnostic scenario we processed by WES only the DNA from the index patient of each family, followed by in silico data analysis. We successfully identified causative mutations in patients from 10 different families, which were later verified by Sanger sequencing and co-segregation analyses. Specifically, we detected pathogenic DNA variants (∼50% novel mutations) in the genes RP1, USH2A, CNGB3, NMNAT1, CHM, and ABCA4, responsible for retinitis pigmentosa, Usher syndrome, achromatopsia, Leber congenital amaurosis, choroideremia, or recessive Stargardt/cone-rod dystrophy cases. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite the absence of genetic information from other family members that could help excluding nonpathogenic DNA variants, we could detect causative mutations in a variety of genes known to represent a wide spectrum of clinical phenotypes in 83% of the patients analyzed. Considering the constant drop in costs for human exome sequencing and the relative simplicity of the analyses made, this technique could represent a valuable tool for molecular diagnostics or genetic research, even in cases for which no genotypes from family members are available.

The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism, 2000

The Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP) received funding through the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) State Justice Statistics (SJS) Program for the purpose of collection and analysis of data related to implementation of the Iowa Sex Offender Registry. The research had two specific goals: · To enhance understanding of the State’s Sex Offender Registry through collection and analysis of data on sex offenders before and after the Registry’s implementation. · To develop and validate a unique Iowa Sex Offender Risk Assessment tool to assist in identifying those offenders who constitute the highest risk to re-offend. Few studies have addressed the impact of a Sex Offender Registry program on recidivism rates or other variables. It was the purpose of this first study to examine and compare two groups of individuals to determine what effect, if any, the requirement to register as a sex offender had on recidivism rates over a 3-4 year period.