Distribution of the CCR5delta32 allele (gene variant CCR5) in Rondonia, Western Amazonian region, Brazil

Since around 1723, on the occasion of its initial colonization by Europeans, Rondonia has received successive waves of immigrants. This has been further swelled by individuals from northeastern Brazil, who began entering at the beginning of the twentieth century. The ethnic composition varies across the state according to the various sites of settlement of each wave of immigrants. We analyzed the frequency of the CCR5 Delta 32 allele of the CCR5 chemokine receptor, which is considered a Caucasian marker, in five sample sets from the population. Four were collected in Porto Velho, the state capital and the site of several waves of migration. Of these, two, from the Hospital de Base were comprised of HB Mothers and HB Newborns presenting allele frequencies of 3.5% and 3.1%, respectively, a third from the peri-urban neighborhoods of Candelaria/Bate-Estaca (1.8%), whereas a fourth, from the Research Center on Tropical Medicine/CEPEM (0.6%), was composed of malaria patients under treament. The fifth sample (3.4%) came from the inland Quilombola village of Pedras Negras. Two homozygous individuals (CCR5 Delta 32/CCR5 Delta 32) were detected among the HB Mother samples. The frequency of this allele was heterogeneous and higher where the European inflow was more pronounced. The presence of the allele in Pedras Negras revealed European miscegenation in a community largely comprising Quilombolas.

Reconstruction of the aquifer history of Gran Canaria

[EN]A study on the recent history and current state of the aquifer in the Island of Gran Canaria (Canary Is., 28oN, 15oW) is performed. Though rainfall is scarce on the island, traditional agricultural practices and small population were able to keep the aquifer in a constant state for centuries. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the 20th Century, culture of several water-consuming species was introduced on a commercial basis due to the relative proximity of the Canaries to continental Europe and to the possibility of more than one yearly harvest. This led to generalised well digging (more than 300m deep in many cases) and to the appearance of a chronic hydraulic deficit, as well as to spoiling vastcoastal areas of the aquifer through intrusion of brackish water. In the mid 1960’s, coincident with the apex of agricultural exploitation, massive tourism appeared in the scene. This new activity soon became a susbstitute for Agriculture, but it attracted more new labour force to the island, and a fast growth of population was the main result. Moreover, new water use practices entered the scene. As a consequence, the main causes for the aquifer decline are population growth and extensive Agriculture practices in use during the last half of the 20th Century. Some remarks on sustainability issues in order to cope with Climate Change are also offered.

Chronicle of a death foretold: Plasmodium liver stage parasites decide on the fate of the host cell

Protozoan parasites of the genus Plasmodium are the causative agents of malaria. Despite more than 100 years of research, the complex life cycle of the parasite still bears many surprises and it is safe to say that understanding the biology of the pathogen will keep scientists busy for many years to come. Malaria research has mainly concentrated on the pathological blood stage of Plasmodium parasites, leaving us with many questions concerning parasite development within the mosquito and during the exo-erythrocytic stage in the vertebrate host. After the discovery of the Plasmodium liver stage in the middle of the last century, it remained understudied for many years but the realization that it represents a promising target for vaccination approaches has brought it back into focus. The last decade saw many new and exciting discoveries concerning the exo-erythrocytic stage and in this review we will discuss the highlights of the latest developments in the field.

Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data

Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

The origin of the European Medieval Warm Period"

Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer "Medieval Warm Period" in Europe. Those two relatively mild periods were separated by a rather cold era, often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Our modelling results suggest that the warm summer conditions during the early second millennium compared to the climate background state of the 13th–18th century are due to a large extent to the long term cooling induced by changes in land-use in Europe. During the last 200 years, the effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, which was partly levelled off by that of sulphate aerosols, has dominated the climate history over Europe in summer. This induces a clear warming during the last 200 years, allowing summer temperature during the last 25 years to reach back the values simulated for the early second millennium. Volcanic and solar forcing plays a weaker role in this comparison between the last 25 years of the 20th century and the early second millennium. Our hypothesis appears consistent with proxy records but modelling results have to be weighted against the existing uncertainties in the external forcing factors, in particular related to land-use changes, and against the uncertainty of the regional climate sensitivity. Evidence for winter is more equivocal than for summer. The forced response in the model displays a clear temperature maximum at the end of the 20th century. However, the uncertainties are too large to state that this period is the warmest of the past millennium in Europe during winter.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Expected and Unexpected Consequences of the Educational Expansion in Europe and the US. Theoretical approaches and empirical findings in comparative perspective

A main mechanism behind the change in European and North American societies in the second half of the 20th century is the educational expansion, i.e. the increase in educational opportunities and the higher demand for education. Whereas other abstract social processes like modernization have been widely theorized in social science literature, the educational expansion and its consequences in particular have not been well studied. Therefore the main aim of this compilation is to deal with the question of whether the demands of the educational reforms have been fulfilled and which other consequences the educational expansion has had. This book will focus on consequences of the educational expansion for individuals and their life courses as well as for the social structure and other societal areas such as culture and politics. Aspects that will be analysed in the light of educational expansion include participation in education, educational inequalities, labour market outcomes, educational returns, and gender differences as well as crime, life expectancy, and lifestyles. Countries analysed in the book include West European countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain, East European countries (Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic) as well as the US.

Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

Introduction: A brief journey through the 80 year history of the International Association of Schools of Social Work

The leaders of the International Association of Schools of Social Work (IASSW) have played major roles in shaping the organization over its 80 year history. This brief introduction will put their roles in the context of the organization’s history. While influenced by its presidents in significant ways, the organization’s trajectory has also been affected by the political, economic and social developments of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st. Significant changes have occurred in the organization and in social work education, yet, as Feustel (2006) observed, “the history of the IASSW demonstrates lines of continuity that are even more remarkable for the fact that it was caught up in the great historical ruptures of the 20th century” (p. 3).

Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Characterisation of flash floods in small ungauged mountain basins of Central Spain using an integrated approach

One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall–runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management.

Hans Brun: a Swiss pioneer in the surgery of the spinal cord, brain and herniated lumbar disc

INTRODUCTION Toward the end of the nineteenth century, it was Gowers, Horsley and Macewen who first reported successful surgical procedures for the treatment of subdural extramedullary tumors. Following this, Church and Eisendrath as well as Putnam and Warren reported unsuccessful attempts to treat subpial spinal pathologies in their patients. Only at the beginning of the twentieth century did reports of successful interventions of this type accumulate. In the analysis of these case reports, the authors noticed a certain lack of accuracy about the anatomical allocations and descriptions of intra- and extramedullary spinal lesions. From this, the question of who actually carried out the pioneering works in the early twentieth century in the field of surgery of intramedullary pathologies arose. METHODS Analysis of the relevant original publications of Hans Brun and research on the poorly documented information about his life history by personally contacting contemporary relatives. RESULTS The literature analysis showed that the Swiss neurologist Otto Veraguth and surgeon Hans Brun made fundamental contributions to subpial spinal cord surgery at the very beginning of the last century that remain valid today. According to our research, Hans Brun should be remembered as the third surgeon (after von Eiselsberg and Elsberg) who successfully removed an intramedullary lesion in a patient. CONCLUSION Brun should be remembered as an early and successful surgeon in this specialized field. His operative work is described in detail in this article. At the same time, his achievements in the fields of brain and disc herniation surgery are presented.

Liberal and Radical Democracies: The Swiss Cantons Compared

This article examines the widespread hypothesis that German-speaking Swiss cantons exhibit radical-democratic characteristics, while the Latin cantons possess stronger liberal-representative democratic profiles. Empirical and multi-dimensional measuring of the quality of democracy in the cantons shows that this hypothesis does not do the complexity of cantonal democracy justice. Today’s position of the cantons along the axes of liberal and radical democracy is best explained with reference to the strong liberal and democratic constitutional movements within the cantons during the middle of the 19th century.

Sea surface temperature and sea ice variability in the subpolar North Atlantic from explosive volcanism of the late thirteenth century

In this study, we use IP and alkenone biomarker proxies to document the subdecadal variations of sea ice and sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic induced by the decadally paced explosive tropical volcanic eruptions of the second half of the thirteenth century. The short- and long-term evolutions of both variables were investigated by cross analysis with a simulation of the IPSL-CM5A LR model. Our results show short-term ocean cooling and sea ice expansion in response to each volcanic eruption. They also highlight that the long response time of the ocean leads to cumulative surface cooling and subsurface heat buildup due to sea ice capping. As volcanic forcing relaxes, the surface ocean rapidly warms, likely amplified by subsurface heat, and remains almost ice free for several decades

The Madras Presidency’s Prisons and the British Empire, 1820s–1850s

This paper is based on the observation that projects to reform prisons in British India in the first half of the 19th century were remarkably parallel to those in Britain and other colonies of the British Empire. Therefore, it will be asked to what extent local discussions about imprisonment in India were connected to developments in the metropole, in other parts of the empire, and elsewhere in the colony and how such imperial connections influenced local practices. Recent studies on colonial India’s prisons have focused on the British possessions in north India, whereas the Madras Presidency’s penal history is as of yet mostly unstudied. The paper will look on two initiatives of prison reform undertaken by the Madras Government; firstly, an inquiry made in the 1820s to combat the high mortality in the jails, and secondly, attempts throughout the 1840s and 1850s to construct a penitentiary along the lines of penal systems in other parts of India and the British Empire. The two case studies promise insights into the body of knowledge about punishment that was accumulated in British India, its entanglement with debates in other parts of the empire, and the emergence of ‘imperial standards’ of imprisonment in the course of the 19th century.