Cost models for engineering services

This thesis describes the procedure and results from four years research undertaken through the IHD (Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees) Scheme at Aston University in Birmingham, sponsored by the SERC (Science and Engineering Research Council) and Monk Dunstone Associates, Chartered Quantity Surveyors. A stochastic networking technique VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique) was used to model the pre-tender costs of public health, heating ventilating, air-conditioning, fire protection, lifts and electrical installations within office developments. The model enabled the quantity surveyor to analyse, manipulate and explore complex scenarios which previously had defied ready mathematical analysis. The process involved the examination of historical material costs, labour factors and design performance data. Components and installation types were defined and formatted. Data was updated and adjusted using mechanical and electrical pre-tender cost indices and location, selection of contractor, contract sum, height and site condition factors. Ranges of cost, time and performance data were represented by probability density functions and defined by constant, uniform, normal and beta distributions. These variables and a network of the interrelationships between services components provided the framework for analysis. The VERT program, in this particular study, relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to model the uncertainties associated with pre-tender estimates of all possible installations. The computer generated output in the form of relative and cumulative frequency distributions of current element and total services costs, critical path analyses and details of statistical parameters. From this data alternative design solutions were compared, the degree of risk associated with estimates was determined, heuristics were tested and redeveloped, and cost significant items were isolated for closer examination. The resultant models successfully combined cost, time and performance factors and provided the quantity surveyor with an appreciation of the cost ranges associated with the various engineering services design options.

Medicines non-use in primary care

This study expands the current knowledge base on the nature, causes and fate of unused medicines in primary care. Three methodologies were used and participants for each element were sampled from the population of Eastern Birmingham PCT. A detailed assessment was made of medicines returned to pharmacies and GP surgeries for destruction and a postal questionnaire covering medicines use and disposal was used to patients randomly selected from the electoral roll. The content of this questionnaire was informed by qualitative data from a group interview on the subject. By use of these three methods it was possible to triangulate the data, providing a comprehensive assessment of unused medicines. Unused medicines were found to be ubiquitous in primary care and cardiovascular, diabetic and respiratory medicines are unused in substantial quantities, accounting for a considerable proportion of the total financial value of all unused medicines. Additionally, analgesic and psychoactive medicines were highlighted as being unused in sufficient quantities for concern. Anti-infective medicines also appear to be present and unused in a substantial proportion of patients’ homes. Changes to prescribed therapy and non-compliance were identified as important factors leading to the generation of unused medicines. However, a wide array of other elements influence the quantities and types of medicines that are unused including the concordancy of GP consultations and medication reviews and patient factors such as age, sex or ethnicity. Medicines were appropriately discarded by 1 in 3 patients through return to a medical or pharmaceutical establishment. Inappropriate disposal was by placing in household refuse or through grey and black water with the possibility of hoarding or diversion also being identified. No correlations wre found between the weight of unused medicines and any clinical or financial factor. The study has highlighted unused medicines to be an issue of some concern and one that requires further study.

High-performance liquid chromatography and pharmacokinetics of some antibiotics

The principles of High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) and pharmacokinetics were applied to the use of several clinically-important drugs at the East Birmingham Hospital. Amongst these was gentamicin, which was investigated over a two-year period by a multi-disciplinary team. It was found that there was considerable intra- and inter-patient variation that had not previously been reported and the causes and consequences of such variation were considered. A detailed evaluation of available pharmacokinetic techniques was undertaken and 1- and 2-compartment models were optimised with regard to sampling procedures, analytical error and model-error. The implications for control of therapy are discussed and an improved sampling regime is proposed for routine usage. Similar techniques were applied to trimethoprim, assayed by HPLC, in patients with normal renal function and investigations were also commenced into the penetration of drug into peritoneal dialysate. Novel assay techniques were also developed for a range of drugs including 4-aminopyridine, chloramphenicol, metronidazole and a series of penicillins and cephalosporins. Stability studies on cysteamine, reaction-rate studies on creatinine-picrate and structure-activity relationships in HPLC of aminopyridines are also reported.

Evaluation of remote sensing for the detection of landfill gas and leachate in an urban environment

The technique of remote sensing provides a unique view of the earth's surface and considerable areas can be surveyed in a short amount of time. The aim of this project was to evaluate whether remote sensing, particularly using the Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) with its wide spectral range, was capable of monitoring landfill sites within an urban environment with the aid of image processing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) methods. The regions under study were in the West Midlands conurbation and consisted of a large area in what is locally known as the Black Country containing heavy industry intermingled with residential areas, and a large single active landfill in north Birmingham. When waste is collected in large volumes it decays and gives off pollutants. These pollutants, landfill gas and leachate (a liquid effluent), are known to be injurious to vegetation and can cause stress and death. Vegetation under stress can exhibit a physiological change, detectable by the remote sensing systems used. The chemical and biological reactions that create the pollutants are exothermic and the gas and leachate, if they leave the waste, can be warmer than their surroundings. Thermal imagery from the ATM (daylight and dawn) and thermal video were obtained and used to find thermal anomalies on the area under study. The results showed that vegetation stress is not a reliable indicator of landfill gas migration, as sites within an urban environment have a cover too complex for the effects to be identified. Gas emissions from two sites were successfully detected by all the thermal imagery with the thermal ATM being the best. Although the results were somewhat disappointing, recent technical advancements in the remote sensing systems used in this project would allow geo-registration of ATM imagery taken on different occasions and the elimination of the effects of solar insolation.

Ecological studies on river pollution control

This collection of papers records a series of studies, carried out over a period of some 50 years, on two aspects of river pollution control - the prevention of pollution by sewage biological filtration and the monitoring of river pollution by biological surveillance. The earlier studies were carried out to develop methods of controlling flies which bred in the filters and caused serious nuisance and possible public health hazard, when they dispersed to surrounding villages. Although the application of insecticides proved effective as an alleviate measure, because it resulted in only a temporary disturbance of the ecological balance, it was considered ecologically unsound as a long-term solution. Subsequent investigations showed that the fly populations in filters were largely determined by the amount of food available to the grazing larval stage in the form of filter film. It was also established that the winter deterioration in filter performance was due to the excessive accumulation of film. Subsequent investigations were therefore carried out to determine the factors responsible for the accumulation of film in different types of filter. Methods of filtration which were considered to control film accumulation by increasing the flushing action of the sewage, were found to control fungal film by creating nutrient limiting conditions. In some filters increasing the hydraulic flushing reduced the grazing fauna population in the surface layers and resulted in an increase in film. The results of these investigations were successfully applied in modifying filters and in the design of a Double Filtration process. These studies on biological filters lead to the conclusion that they should be designed and operated as ecological systems and not merely as hydraulic ones. Studies on the effects of sewage effluents on Birmingham streams confirmed the findings of earlier workers justifying their claim for using biological methods for detecting and assessing river pollution. Further ecological studies showed the sensitivity of benthic riffle communities to organic pollution. Using experimental channels and laboratory studies the different environmental conditions associated with organic pollution were investigated. The degree and duration of the oxygen depletion during the dark hours were found to be a critical factor. The relative tolerance of different taxa to other pollutants, such as ammonia, differed. Although colonisation samplers proved of value in sampling difficult sites, the invertebrate data generated were not suitable for processing as any of the commonly used biotic indexes. Several of the papers, which were written by request for presentation at conferences etc., presented the biological viewpoint on river pollution and water quality issues at the time and advocated the use of biological methods. The information and experiences gained in these investigations was used as the "domain expert" in the development of artificial intelligence systems for use in the biological surveillance of river water quality.

The relationships between a developing regional airport and local commerce and industry

This thesis describes an investigation into a Local Authority's desire to use its airport to aid regional economic growth. Short studies on air freight. the impact of an airport on the local economy, incoming tourism. and the factors influencing airlines in their use of airports, show that this desire is valid. but only in so far as the airport enables air services to be provided. A survey of airlines. conducted to remedy some deficiencies in the documented knowledge on airline decision-making criteria. indicates that there is cause for concern about the methods used to develop air services. A comparison with the West German network suggests that Birmingham is underprovided with international scheduled flights, and reinforces the survey conclusion that an airport authority must become actively involved in the development of air services. Participation in the licence applications of two airlines to use Birmingham Airport confirms the need for involvement but without showing the extent of the influence which an airport authority may exert. The conclusion is reached that in order to fulfill its development potential, an airport must be marketed to both the general public and the air transport industry. There is also a need for a national air services plan.

Pathways utilized by heavy metal pollutants in urban stormwater runoff

The research concerned the assessment of the pathways utilized by heavy metal pollutants in urban stormwater runoff. A separately sewered urban residential catchment of approximately 107 hectares in Chelmsley Wood, north-east Birmingham was the subject of the field investigation. The catchment area, almost entirely residential, had no immediate industrial heavy metal input, however, industry was situated to the north of the catchment. The perimeter of the catchment was bounded by the M6 motorway on the northern and eastern sides and was believed to contribute to aerial deposition. Metal inputs to the ground surface were assumed to be confined to normal suburban activities, namely, aerial deposition, vehicular activity and anthropological activities. A programme of field work was undertaken over a 12 month period, from July 1983 to July 1984. Monthly deposition rates were monitored using a network of deposit cannisters and roadside sediment and soil samples were taken. Stormwater samples were obtained for 19 separate events. All samples were analysed for iron, lead, zinc, copper, chromium, nickel and cadmium content. Rainfall was recorded on site with additional meteorological data obtained from local Meteorological Offices. Use was made of a simple conceptual model designed for the catchment to substantiate hypotheses derived from site investigations and literature, to investigate the pathways utilized for the transportation of heavy metals throughout the catchment.

The appraisal and management of multi-storey dwelling blocks using large concrete panel systems

This exploratory study is concerned with the integrated appraisal of multi-storey dwelling blocks which incorporate large concrete panel systems (LPS). The first step was to look at U.K. multi-storey dwelling stock in general, and under the management of Birmingham City Council in particular. The information has been taken from the databases of three departments in the City of Birmingham, and rearranged in a new database using a suite of PC software called `PROXIMA' for clarity and analysis. One hundred of their stock were built large concrete panel system. Thirteen LPS blocks were chosen for the purpose of this study as case-studies depending mainly on the height and age factors of the block. A new integrated appraisal technique has been created for the LPS dwelling blocks, which takes into account the most physical and social factors affecting the condition and acceptability of these blocks. This appraisal technique is built up in a hierarchical form moving from the general approach to particular elements (a tree model). It comprises two main approaches; physical and social. In the physical approach, the building is viewed as a series of manageable elements and sub-elements to cover every single physical or environmental factor of the block, in which the condition of the block is analysed. A quality score system has been developed which depends mainly on the qualitative and quantitative conditions of each category in the appraisal tree model, and leads to physical ranking order of the study blocks. In the social appraisal approach, the residents' satisfaction and attitude toward their multi-storey dwelling block was analysed in relation to: a. biographical and housing related characteristics; and b. social, physical and environmental factors associated with this sort of dwelling, block and estate in general.The random sample consisted of 268 residents living in the 13 case study blocks. Data collected was analysed using frequency counts, percentages, means, standard deviations, Kendall's tue, r-correlation coefficients, t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The analysis showed a marginally positive satisfaction and attitude towards living in the block. The five most significant factors associated with the residents' satisfaction and attitude in descending order were: the estate, in general; the service categories in the block, including heating system and lift services; vandalism; the neighbours; and the security system of the block. An important attribute of this method, is that it is relatively inexpensive to implement, especially when compared to alternatives adopted by some local authorities and the BRE. It is designed to save time, money and effort, to aid decision making, and to provide ranked priority to the multi-storey dwelling stock, in addition to many other advantages. A series of solution options to the problems of the block was sought for selection and testing before implementation. The traditional solutions have usually resulted in either demolition or costly physical maintenance and social improvement of the blocks. However, a new solution has now emerged, which is particularly suited to structurally sound units. The solution of `re-cycling' might incorporate the reuse of an entire block or part of it, by removing panels, slabs and so forth from the upper floors in order to reconstruct them as low-rise accommodations.

Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.

The new generation: characteristics and motivations of BME graduate eEntrepreneurs

The purpose of this research is to profile the characteristics and entrepreneurial motivations of graduate entrepreneurs from black and minority ethnic (BME) communities. The authors found that: BME graduate entrepreneurs were diverse in terms of their characteristics: size, gender, ethnicity and when they started the business. Almost all interviewees had worked for someone before they started their business. The two most compelling motivations for start up were 'being your own boss', especially for Indians and Bangladeshis; and making more money (31%), in particular for African Caribbeans. Over half of interviewees started a business in a sector in which they had prior experience, knowledge or skills. Two thirds of interviewees obtained advice from family and friends, while just over a third had completed any kind of training or course. This study has provided an insight into characteristics and entrepreneurial motivations of BME graduate entrepreneurs. Though the results of this study are indicative, there is a compelling case for further research into this relatively unexplored group.

A speech analysis system for use in educational research

This thesis describes work undertaken in order to fulfil a need experienced in the Department of Educational Enquiry at the University of Aston in Birmingham for speech analysis facilities suitable for use in teaching and research work within the Department. The hardware and software developed during the research project provides displays of speech fundamental frequency and intensity in real time. The system is suitable for the provision of visual feedback of these parameters of a subject's speech in a learning situation, and overcomes the inadequacies of equipment currently used for this task in that it provides a clear indication of fundamental frequency contours as the subject is speaking. The thesis considers the use of such equipment in several related fields, and the approaches that have been reported to one of the major problems of speech analysis, namely pitch-period estimation. A number of different systems are described, and their suitability for the present purposes is discussed. Finally, a novel method of pitch-period estimation is developed, and a speech analysis system incorporating this method is described. Comparison is made between the results produced by this system and those produced by a conventional speech spectrograph.

Migraine, A study of environmental and intrapersonal factors

A study was carried out of 45 migrainous patients with visually induced migraine (VIM), and 25 migrainous students, each having an age and sex matched control. The study utilised questionnaires, interviews, electroencephalography (EEG) and visual evoked potentials (VEP). The experimental work and analysis was carried out in the Neuropsychology Unit in collaboration with the Birmingham Migraine Clinic, over a period of five years. The study suggests: 1. The literature on a possible relationship between migraine and epilepsy hitherto published is unreliable (supporting evidence is given). 2. That a much greater precision is needed in defining migraine for research purposes. 3. A revised methodology for the selection of controls is needed and this is proposed. 4. That despite what are now seen to be superficial similarities, there are clear distinctions of a fundamental nature between photo-sensitive epilepsy (PSE) and VIM. 5. Caution be used when taking headache as a symptom, since many of the precipitants of migrainous headache can also precipitate non-migrainous headache (NMH). 6. The list of visual precipitants of migraine is expanded (particularly flicker and pattern). 7. That colour (principally red) is a previously unreported precipitant of migraine. 8. The extended range of responses to flicker (the 'H' response) has no significant difference in its frequency of occurrence in patients and normal controls, which contradicts previous literature. 9. The mechanisms thought to underlie migraine serve to explain previously unexplained EEG findings. 10. Further research is needed and proposed.

Knowledge-based systems and engineering software

The work described was carried out as part of a collaborative Alvey software engineering project (project number SE057). The project collaborators were the Inter-Disciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme of the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd. (BIS) and the British Steel Corporation. The aim of the project was to investigate the potential application of knowledge-based systems (KBSs) to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The work was primarily concerned with BIS's Structured Systems Design (SSD) methodology for DP systems development and how users of this methodology could be supported using KBS tools. The problems encountered by users of SSD are discussed and potential forms of computer-based support for inexpert designers are identified. The architecture for a support environment for SSD is proposed based on the integration of KBS and non-KBS tools for individual design tasks within SSD - The Intellipse system. The Intellipse system has two modes of operation - Advisor and Designer. The design, implementation and user-evaluation of Advisor are discussed. The results of a Designer feasibility study, the aim of which was to analyse major design tasks in SSD to assess their suitability for KBS support, are reported. The potential role of KBS tools in the domain of database design is discussed. The project involved extensive knowledge engineering sessions with expert DP systems designers. Some practical lessons in relation to KBS development are derived from this experience. The nature of the expertise possessed by expert designers is discussed. The need for operational KBSs to be built to the same standards as other commercial and industrial software is identified. A comparison between current KBS and conventional DP systems development is made. On the basis of this analysis, a structured development method for KBSs in proposed - the POLITE model. Some initial results of applying this method to KBS development are discussed. Several areas for further research and development are identified.

User interface design support for the development of knowledge-based systems

The present scarcity of operational knowledge-based systems (KBS) has been attributed, in part, to an inadequate consideration shown to user interface design during development. From a human factors perspective the problem has stemmed from an overall lack of user-centred design principles. Consequently the integration of human factors principles and techniques is seen as a necessary and important precursor to ensuring the implementation of KBS which are useful to, and usable by, the end-users for whom they are intended. Focussing upon KBS work taking place within commercial and industrial environments, this research set out to assess both the extent to which human factors support was presently being utilised within development, and the future path for human factors integration. The assessment consisted of interviews conducted with a number of commercial and industrial organisations involved in KBS development; and a set of three detailed case studies of individual KBS projects. Two of the studies were carried out within a collaborative Alvey project, involving the Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme (IHD) at the University of Aston in Birmingham, BIS Applied Systems Ltd (BIS), and the British Steel Corporation. This project, which had provided the initial basis and funding for the research, was concerned with the application of KBS to the design of commercial data processing (DP) systems. The third study stemmed from involvement on a KBS project being carried out by the Technology Division of the Trustees Saving Bank Group plc. The preliminary research highlighted poor human factors integration. In particular, there was a lack of early consideration of end-user requirements definition and user-centred evaluation. Instead concentration was given to the construction of the knowledge base and prototype evaluation with the expert(s). In response to this identified problem, a set of methods was developed that was aimed at encouraging developers to consider user interface requirements early on in a project. These methods were then applied in the two further projects, and their uptake within the overall development process was monitored. Experience from the two studies demonstrated that early consideration of user interface requirements was both feasible, and instructive for guiding future development work. In particular, it was shown a user interface prototype could be used as a basis for capturing requirements at the functional (task) level, and at the interface dialogue level. Extrapolating from this experience, a KBS life-cycle model is proposed which incorporates user interface design (and within that, user evaluation) as a largely parallel, rather than subsequent, activity to knowledge base construction. Further to this, there is a discussion of several key elements which can be seen as inhibiting the integration of human factors within KBS development. These elements stem from characteristics of present KBS development practice; from constraints within the commercial and industrial development environments; and from the state of existing human factors support.

Priority evaluation in transportation policies and programmes

This work is concerned with the development of techniques for the evaluation of large-scale highway schemes with particular reference to the assessment of their costs and benefits in the context of the current transport planning (T.P.P.) process. It has been carried out in close cooperation with West Midlands County Council, although its application and results are applicable elsewhere. The background to highway evaluation and its development in recent years has been described and the emergence of a number of deficiencies in current planning practise noted. One deficiency in particular stood out, that stemming from inadequate methods of scheme generation and the research has concentrated upon improving this stage of appraisal, to ensure that subsequent stages of design, assessment and implementation are based upon a consistent and responsive foundation. Deficiencies of scheme evaluation were found to stem from inadequate development of appraisal methodologies suffering from difficulties of valuation, measurement and aggregation of the disparate variables that characterise highway evaluation. A failure to respond to local policy priorities was also noted. A 'problem' rather than 'goals' based approach to scheme generation was taken, as it represented the current and foreseeable resource allocation context more realistically. A review of techniques with potential for highway problem based scheme generation, which would work within a series of practical and theoretical constraints were assessed and that of multivariate analysis, and classical factor analysis in particular, was selected, because it offerred considerable application to the difficulties of valuation, measurement and aggregation that existed. Computer programs were written to adapt classical factor analysis to the requirements of T.P.P. highway evaluation, using it to derive a limited number of factors which described the extensive quantity of highway problem data. From this, a series of composite problem scores for 1979 were derived for a case study area of south Birmingham, based upon the factorial solutions, and used to assess highway sites in terms of local policy issues. The methodology was assessed in the light of its ability to describe highway problems in both aggregate and disaggregate terms, to guide scheme design, coordinate with current scheme evaluation methods, and in general to improve upon current appraisal. Analysis of the results was both in subjective, 'common-sense' terms and using statistical methods to assess the changes in problem definition, distribution and priorities that emerged. Overall, the technique was found to improve upon current scheme generation methods in all respects and in particular in overcoming the problems of valuation, measurement and aggregation without recourse to unsubstantiated and questionable assumptions. A number of deficiencies which remained have been outlined and a series of research priorities described which need to be reviewed in the light of current and future evaluation needs.