Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis

A workshop providing an introduction to Bayesian data analysis and hypothesis testing using R, Jags and the BayesFactor package.

A patterned abrasion caused by the impact of a cartridge case may simulate an atypical muzzle imprint mark.

In contact shots, the muzzle imprint is an informative finding associated with the entrance wound. It typically mirrors the constructional components being in line with the muzzle or just behind. Under special conditions, other patterned skin marks located near a gunshot entrance wound may give the impression to be part of the muzzle imprint. A potential mechanism causing a patterned pressure abrasion in close proximity to the bullet entrance site is demonstrated on the basis of a suicidal shot to the temple. The skin lesion in question appeared as a ring-shaped excoriation with a diameter corresponding to that of the cartridge case. Two hypotheses concerning the causative mechanism were investigated by test shots: - After being ejected, the cartridge case ricocheted inside a confined space (car cabin in the particular case) and secondarily hit the skin near the gunshot entrance wound. - The ejection of the cartridge case failed so that the case became stuck in the ejection port and its mouth contacted the skin when the body collapsed after being hit.

Die Bürgerwehr besonders in Berlin : in der Sitzung des Vereins für Geschichte der Mark Brandenburg am 12. April vorgetragen

Boberach: Die Berliner Bürgerwehr wird in die Tradition der Bürgeraufgebote von 1440 und 1626, der 1515 und 1705 erlassenen Vorschriften für die Bewaffnung und der erst 1825 aufgehobenen Bürgerwehr gestellt

Der Vorwurf der Hostienschändung und das erste Auftreten der Juden in der Mark Brandenburg

Hans Lichtenstein

Mark Antokolski [Illustration] : (Porträt)

Scan von Monochrom-Mikroform

Mark Günzburg [Illustration] : Basrelief

Mark Antokolski

Büste des Mark Twain [Illustration]

Theresa Feodorowna Ries

Bayesian models for the analysis of genetic structure when populations are correlated

Motivation: Population allele frequencies are correlated when populations have a shared history or when they exchange genes. Unfortunately, most models for allele frequency and inference about population structure ignore this correlation. Recent analytical results show that among populations, correlations can be very high, which could affect estimates of population genetic structure. In this study, we propose a mixture beta model to characterize the allele frequency distribution among populations. This formulation incorporates the correlation among populations as well as extending the model to data with different clusters of populations. Results: Using simulated data, we show that in general, the mixture model provides a good approximation of the among-population allele frequency distribution and a good estimate of correlation among populations. Results from fitting the mixture model to a dataset of genotypes at 377 autosomal microsatellite loci from human populations indicate high correlation among populations, which may not be appropriate to neglect. Traditional measures of population structure tend to over-estimate the amount of genetic differentiation when correlation is neglected. Inference is performed in a Bayesian framework.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Zur Geschichte der Juden in der Mark Brandenburg, insbesondere in der Stadt Stendal, um die Mitte des 15. Jahrhunderts

Julian Landsberger

Mark Antokolski

Max Grunwald