948 resultados para BAYESIAN NETWORKS


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Widespread adoption by electricity utilities of Non-Conventional Instrument Transformers, such as optical or capacitive transducers, has been limited due to the lack of a standardised interface and multi-vendor interoperability. Low power analogue interfaces are being replaced by IEC 61850 9 2 and IEC 61869 9 digital interfaces that use Ethernet networks for communication. These ‘process bus’ connections achieve significant cost savings by simplifying connections between switchyard and control rooms; however the in-service performance when these standards are employed is largely unknown. The performance of real-time Ethernet networks and time synchronisation was assessed using a scale model of a substation automation system. The test bed was constructed from commercially available timing and protection equipment supplied by a range of vendors. Test protocols have been developed to thoroughly evaluate the performance of Ethernet networks and network based time synchronisation. The suitability of IEEE Std 1588 Precision Time Protocol (PTP) as a synchronising system for sampled values was tested in the steady state and under transient conditions. Similarly, the performance of hardened Ethernet switches designed for substation use was assessed under a range of network operating conditions. This paper presents test methods that use a precision Ethernet capture card to accurately measure PTP and network performance. These methods can be used for product selection and to assess ongoing system performance as substations age. Key findings on the behaviour of multi-function process bus networks are presented. System level tests were performed using a Real Time Digital Simulator and transformer protection relay with sampled value and Generic Object Oriented Substation Events (GOOSE) capability. These include the interactions between sampled values, PTP and GOOSE messages. Our research has demonstrated that several protocols can be used on a shared process bus, even with very high network loads. This should provide confidence that this technology is suitable for transmission substations.

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Travel time in an important transport performance indicator. Different modes of transport (buses and cars) have different mechanical and operational characteristics, resulting in significantly different travel behaviours and complexities in multimodal travel time estimation on urban networks. This paper explores the relationship between bus and car travel time on urban networks by utilising the empirical Bluetooth and Bus Vehicle Identification data from Brisbane. The technologies and issues behind the two datasets are studied. After cleaning the data to remove outliers, the relationship between not-in-service bus and car travel time and the relationship between in-service bus and car travel time are discussed. The travel time estimation models reveal that the not-in-service bus travel time are similar to the car travel time and the in-service bus travel time could be used to estimate car travel time during off-peak hours

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Informal learning networks play a key role in the skill and professional development of professionals working in micro-businesses within Australia’s digital content industry as they do not necessarily have access to a learning and development or a human resources section that can assist in mapping their learning pathway. Professionals working in this environment would typically adopt an informal learning approach to their skill and professional development by utilising their social and business networks. The overall aim of this PhD research project is to study how these professionals manage their skill and professional development, and to explore what role informal learning networks play in this professional learning context. This paper will describe the theme of the research project and how it fits with previous research and other relevant studies. Secondly, it will present the study’s research focus, and the research questions. It will also present relevant theories and perspectives, and the methods for empirical data collection. Data collection will be through three distinct phases using a mixed methods research design: an online survey, interviews, and case studies. It should be noted the findings presented in this paper offer some early results of the research project.

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IEEE 802.11 based wireless local area networks (WLANs) are being increasingly deployed for soft real-time control applications. However, they do not provide quality-ofservice (QoS) differentiation to meet the requirements of periodic real-time traffic flows, a unique feature of real-time control systems. This problem becomes evident particularly when the network is under congested conditions. Addressing this problem, a media access control (MAC) scheme, QoS-dif, is proposed in this paper to enable QoS differentiation in IEEE 802.11 networks for different types of periodic real-time traffic flows. It extends the IEEE 802.11e Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA) by introducing a QoS differentiation method to deal with different types of periodic traffic that have different QoS requirements for real-time control applications. The effectiveness of the proposed QoS-dif scheme is demonstrated through comparisons with the IEEE 802.11e EDCA mechanism.

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Modelling how a word is activated in human memory is an important requirement for determining the probability of recall of a word in an extra-list cueing experiment. Previous research assumed a quantum-like model in which the semantic network was modelled as entangled qubits, however the level of activation was clearly being over-estimated. This paper explores three variations of this model, each of which are distinguished by a scaling factor designed to compensate the overestimation.

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We consider the problem of maximizing the secure connectivity in wireless ad hoc networks, and analyze complexity of the post-deployment key establishment process constrained by physical layer properties such as connectivity, energy consumption and interference. Two approaches, based on graph augmentation problems with nonlinear edge costs, are formulated. The first one is based on establishing a secret key using only the links that are already secured by shared keys. This problem is in NP-hard and does not accept polynomial time approximation scheme PTAS since minimum cutsets to be augmented do not admit constant costs. The second one extends the first problem by increasing the power level between a pair of nodes that has a secret key to enable them physically connect. This problem can be formulated as the optimal key establishment problem with interference constraints with bi-objectives: (i) maximizing the concurrent key establishment flow, (ii) minimizing the cost. We prove that both problems are NP-hard and MAX-SNP with a reduction to MAX3SAT problem.

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Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

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In this paper we present a new simulation methodology in order to obtain exact or approximate Bayesian inference for models for low-valued count time series data that have computationally demanding likelihood functions. The algorithm fits within the framework of particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) methods. The particle filter requires only model simulations and, in this regard, our approach has connections with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). However, an advantage of using the PMCMC approach in this setting is that simulated data can be matched with data observed one-at-a-time, rather than attempting to match on the full dataset simultaneously or on a low-dimensional non-sufficient summary statistic, which is common practice in ABC. For low-valued count time series data we find that it is often computationally feasible to match simulated data with observed data exactly. Our particle filter maintains $N$ particles by repeating the simulation until $N+1$ exact matches are obtained. Our algorithm creates an unbiased estimate of the likelihood, resulting in exact posterior inferences when included in an MCMC algorithm. In cases where exact matching is computationally prohibitive, a tolerance is introduced as per ABC. A novel aspect of our approach is that we introduce auxiliary variables into our particle filter so that partially observed and/or non-Markovian models can be accommodated. We demonstrate that Bayesian model choice problems can be easily handled in this framework.

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Deploying wireless networks in networked control systems (NCSs) has become more and more popular during the last few years. As a typical type of real-time control systems, an NCS is sensitive to long and nondeterministic time delay and packet losses. However, the nature of the wireless channel has the potential to degrade the performance of NCS networks in many aspects, particularly in time delay and packet losses. Transport layer protocols could play an important role in providing both reliable and fast transmission service to fulfill NCS’s real-time transmission requirements. Unfortunately, none of the existing transport protocols, including the Transport Control Protocol (TCP) and the User Datagram Protocol (UDP), was designed for real-time control applications. Moreover, periodic data and sporadic data are two types of real-time data traffic with different priorities in an NCS. Due to the lack of support for prioritized transmission service, the real-time performance for periodic and sporadic data in an NCS network is often degraded significantly, particularly under congested network conditions. To address these problems, a new transport layer protocol called Reliable Real-Time Transport Protocol (RRTTP) is proposed in this thesis. As a UDP-based protocol, RRTTP inherits UDP’s simplicity and fast transmission features. To improve the reliability, a retransmission and an acknowledgement mechanism are designed in RRTTP to compensate for packet losses. They are able to avoid unnecessary retransmission of the out-of-date packets in NCSs, and collisions are unlikely to happen, and small transmission delay can be achieved. Moreover, a prioritized transmission mechanism is also designed in RRTTP to improve the real-time performance of NCS networks under congested traffic conditions. Furthermore, the proposed RRTTP is implemented in the Network Simulator 2 for comprehensive simulations. The simulation results demonstrate that RRTTP outperforms TCP and UDP in terms of real-time transmissions in an NCS over wireless networks.

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The mechanisms of force generation and transference via microfilament networks are crucial to the understandings of mechanobiology of cellular processes in living cells. However, there exists an enormous challenge for all-atom physics simulation of real size microfilament networks due to scale limitation of molecular simulation techniques. Following biophysical investigations of constitutive relations between adjacent globular actin monomers on filamentous actin, a hierarchical multiscale model was developed to investigate the biomechanical properties of microfilament networks. This model was validated by previous experimental studies of axial tension and transverse vibration of single F-actin. The biomechanics of microfilament networks can be investigated at the scale of real eukaryotic cell size (10 μm). This multiscale approach provides a powerful modeling tool which can contribute to the understandings of actin-related cellular processes in living cells.

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In cooperative communication systems, several wireless communication terminals collaborate to form a virtual-multiple antenna array system and exploit the spatial diversity to achieve a better performance. This thesis proposes a practical slotted protocol for cooperative communication systems with half-duplex single antennas. The performance of the proposed slotted cooperative communication protocol is evaluated in terms of the pairwise error probability and the bit error rate. The proposed protocol achieves the multiple-input single-output performance bound with a novel relay ordering and scheduling strategy.

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Privacy is an important component of freedom and plays a key role in protecting fundamental human rights. It is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the fact that without appropriate levels of privacy, a person’s rights are diminished. Users want to protect their privacy - particularly in “privacy invasive” areas such as social networks. However, Social Network users seldom know how protect their own privacy through online mechanisms. What is required is an emerging concept that provides users legitimate control over their own personal information, whilst preserving and maintaining the advantages of engaging with online services such as Social Networks. This paper reviews “Privacy by Design (PbD)” and shows how it applies to diverse privacy areas. Such an approach will move towards mitigating many of the privacy issues in online information systems and can be a potential pathway for protecting user’s personal information. The research has posed many questions in need of further investigation for different open source distributed Social Networks. Findings from this research will lead to a novel distributed architecture that provides more transparent and accountable privacy for the users of online information systems.

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This thesis explores how governance networks prioritise and engage with their stakeholders, by studying three exemplars of “Regional Road Group” governance networks in Queensland, Australia. In the context of managing regionally significant road works programs, stakeholder prioritisation is a complex activity which is unlikely to influence interactions with stakeholders outside of the network. However, stakeholder priority is more likely to influence stakeholder interactions within the networks themselves. Both stakeholder prioritisation and engagement are strongly influenced by the way that the networks are managed, and in particular network operating rules and continuing access to resources.

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This paper examines patterns of political activity and campaigning on Twitter in the context of the 2012 election in the Australian state of Queensland. Social media have been a visible component of political campaigning in Australia at least since the 2007 federal election, with Twitter, in particular, rising to greater prominence in the 2010 federal election. At state level, however, they have remained comparatively less important thus far. In this paper, we track uses of Twitter in the Queensland campaign from its unofficial start in February through to the election day of 24 March 2012. We both examine the overall patterns of activity in the hash tag #qldvotes, and track specific interactions between politicians and other users by following some 80 Twitter accounts of sitting members of parliament and alternative candidates. Such analysis provides new insights into the different approaches to social media campaigning which were embraced by specific candidates and party organisations, as well as an indication of the relative importance of social media activities, at present, for state-level election campaigns.

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Objective: Effective management of multi-resistant organisms is an important issue for hospitals both in Australia and overseas. This study investigates the utility of using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis to examine relationships between risk factors and colonization with Vancomycin Resistant Enterococcus (VRE). Design: Bayesian Network Analysis was performed using infection control data collected over a period of 36 months (2008-2010). Setting: Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Brisbane. Outcome of interest: Number of new VRE Isolates Methods: A BN is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). BN enables multiple interacting agents to be studied simultaneously. The initial BN model was constructed based on the infectious disease physician‟s expert knowledge and current literature. Continuous variables were dichotomised by using third quartile values of year 2008 data. BN was used to examine the probabilistic relationships between VRE isolates and risk factors; and to establish which factors were associated with an increased probability of a high number of VRE isolates. Software: Netica (version 4.16). Results: Preliminary analysis revealed that VRE transmission and VRE prevalence were the most influential factors in predicting a high number of VRE isolates. Interestingly, several factors (hand hygiene and cleaning) known through literature to be associated with VRE prevalence, did not appear to be as influential as expected in this BN model. Conclusions: This preliminary work has shown that Bayesian Network Analysis is a useful tool in examining clinical infection prevention issues, where there is often a web of factors that influence outcomes. This BN model can be restructured easily enabling various combinations of agents to be studied.