The solsticial pause on Mars: 1. A planetary wave reanalysis

Large-scale planetary waves are diagnosed from an analysis of profiles retrieved from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft during its scientific mapping phase. The analysis is conducted by assimilating thermal profiles and total dust opacity retrievals into a Mars global circulation model. Transient waves are largest throughout the northern hemisphere autumn, winter and spring period and almost absent during the summer. The southern hemisphere exhibits generally weaker transient wave behaviour. A striking feature of the low-altitude transient waves in the analysis is that they show a broad subsidiary minimum in amplitude centred on the winter solstice, a period when the thermal contrast between the summer hemisphere and the winter pole is strongest and baroclinic wave activity might be expected to be strong. This behaviour, here called the ‘solsticial pause,’ is present in every year of the analysis. This strong pause is under-represented in many independent model experiments, which tend to produce relatively uniform baroclinic wave activity throughout the winter. This paper documents and diagnoses the transient wave solsticial pause found in the analysis; a companion paper investigates the origin of the phenomenon in a series of model experiments.

Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation

The atmospheric response to an idealized decline in Arctic sea ice is investigated in a novel fully coupled climate model experiment. In this experiment two ensembles of single-year model integrations are performed starting on 1 April, the approximate start of the ice melt season. By perturbing the initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT), declines in both sea ice concentration and SIT, which result in sea ice distributions that are similar to the recent sea ice minima of 2007 and 2012, are induced. In the ice loss regions there are strong (~3 K) local increases in sea surface temperature (SST); additionally, there are remote increases in SST in the central North Pacific and subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic. Over the central Arctic there are increases in surface air temperature (SAT) of ~8 K due to increases in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. There are increases in SAT over continental North America that are in good agreement with recent changes as seen by reanalysis data. It is estimated that up to two-thirds of the observed increase in SAT in this region could be related to Arctic sea ice loss. In early summer there is a significant but weak atmospheric circulation response that projects onto the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In early summer and early autumn there is an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet over the North Atlantic as a result of a reduction in the meridional temperature gradients. In winter there is no projection onto a particular phase of the NAO.

The refreezing of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice

The presence of melt ponds on the surface of Arctic sea ice significantly reduces its albedo, inducing a positive feedback leading to sea ice thinning. While the role of melt ponds in enhancing the summer melt of sea ice is well known, their impact on suppressing winter freezing of sea ice has, hitherto, received less attention. Melt ponds freeze by forming an ice lid at the upper surface, which insulates them from the atmosphere and traps pond water between the underlying sea ice and the ice lid. The pond water is a store of latent heat, which is released during refreezing. Until a pond freezes completely, there can be minimal ice growth at the base of the underlying sea ice. In this work, we present a model of the refreezing of a melt pond that includes the heat and salt balances in the ice lid, trapped pond, and underlying sea ice. The model uses a two-stream radiation model to account for radiative scattering at phase boundaries. Simulations and related sensitivity studies suggest that trapped pond water may survive for over a month. We focus on the role that pond salinity has on delaying the refreezing process and retarding basal sea ice growth. We estimate that for a typical sea ice pond coverage in autumn, excluding the impact of trapped ponds in models overestimates ice growth by up to 265 million km3, an overestimate of 26%.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook November 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed monthly outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of a monthly outlook column. This monthly outlook is an indication of the average likely conditions for that month and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook December 2015

During the summer and autumn 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g. droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g. health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015 and SON 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Dec 2015 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of JF 2016 and MAM 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook January 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific have strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during this summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and Dec 2015, a detailed monthly outlook from 4 modeling centres for Jan 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of Feb 2016, MAM 2016 and Jun 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook February 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJ 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Feb 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of MAM 2016 and JJ 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Seasonality of submesoscale flows in the ocean surface boundary layer

A signature of submesoscale flows in the upper ocean is skewness in the distribution of relative vorticity. Expected to result for high Rossby-number flows, such skewness has implications for mixing, dissipation and stratification within the upper ocean. An array of moorings deployed in the Northeast Atlantic for one year as part of the OSMOSIS experiment reveals that relative vorticity is positively skewed during winter even though the scale of the Rossby number is less than 0.5. Furthermore, this skewness is reduced to zero during spring and autumn. There is also evidence of modest seasonal variations in the gradient Rossby number. The proposed mechanism by which relative vorticity is skewed is that the ratio of lateral to vertical buoyancy gradients, as summarized by the inverse gradient Richardson number, restricts its range during winter but less so at other times of the year. These results support recent observations and model simulations suggesting the upper ocean is host to a seasonal cycle in submesoscale turbulence.

El Niño 2015/2016 impact analysis, monthly outlook March 2016

During the summer and autumn of 2015, El Niño conditions in the east and central Pacific strengthened, disrupting weather patterns throughout the tropics and into the mid-latitudes. For example, rainfall during the summer’s Indian monsoon was approximately 15% below normal. The continued strong El Niño conditions have the potential to trigger damaging impacts (e.g., droughts, famines, floods), particularly in less-developed tropical countries, which would require a swift and effective humanitarian response to mitigate damage to life and property (e.g., health, migration, infrastructure). This analysis uses key climatic variables (temperature, soil moisture and precipitation) as measures to monitor the ongoing risk of these potentially damaging impacts. The previous 2015-2016 El Niño Impact Analysis was based on observations over the past 35 years and produced Impact Tables showing the likelihood and severity of the impacts on temperature and rainfall by season. The current report is an extension of this work, providing information from observations and seasonal forecast models to give a more detailed outlook of the potential near-term impacts of the current El Niño conditions by region. This information has been added to the Impact Tables in the form of an ‘Observations and Outlook’ row. This consists of observational information for the past seasons of JJA 2015, SON 2015 and DJF 2015/2016, a detailed monthly outlook from 5 modeling centres for Mar 2016 and then longer-term seasonal forecast information from 2 modeling centres for the future seasons of AM 2016 and JJA 2016. The seasonal outlook information is an indication of the average likely conditions for that coming month (or season) and region and is not a definite prediction of weather impacts. This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

South Atlantic Ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3)

A detailed climatology of the cyclogenesis over the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) from 1990 to 1999 and how it is simulated by the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) is presented here. The simulation used as initial and boundary conditions the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis. The cyclones were identified with an automatic scheme that searches for cyclonic relative vorticity (zeta(10)) obtained from a 10-m height wind field. All the systems with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1) and lifetime equal or larger than 24 h were considered in the climatology. Over SAO, in 10 years were detected 2,760 and 2,787 cyclogeneses in the simulation and NCEP, respectively, with an annual mean of 276.0 +/- A 11.2 and 278.7 +/- A 11.1. This result suggests that the RegCM3 has a good skill to simulate the cyclogenesis climatology. However, the larger model underestimations (-9.8%) are found for the initially stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)). It was noted that over the SAO the annual cycle of the cyclogenesis depends of its initial intensity. Considering the systems initiate with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1), the annual cycle is not well defined and the higher frequency occurs in the autumn (summer) in the NCEP (RegCM3). The stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)) have a well-characterized high frequency of cyclogenesis during the winter in both NCEP and RegCM3. This work confirms the existence of three cyclogenetic regions in the west sector of the SAO, near the South America east coast and shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce the main features of these cyclogenetic areas.

Climatological features of cutoff low systems in the Southern Hemisphere

Cutoff lows (COLs) pressure systems climatology for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), between 10 degrees S and 50 degrees S, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalyses are analyzed for the period 1979-1999. COLs were identified at three pressure levels (200, 300, and 500 hPa) using an objective method that considers the main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of COLs. Independently of the pressure level analyzed, the climatology from the ERA-40 reanalysis has more COLs systems than the NCEP-NCAR. However, both reanalyses present a large frequency of COLs at 300 hPa, followed by 500 and 200 hPa. The seasonality of COLs differs at each pressure level, but it is similar between the reanalyses. COLs are more frequent during summer, autumn, and winter at 200, 300, and 500 hPa, respectively. At these levels, they tend to occur around the continents, preferentially from southeastern Australia to New Zealand, the south of South America, and the south of Africa. To study the COLs at 200 and 300 hPa from a regional perspective, the SH was divided in three regions: Australia-New Zealand (60 E-130 W), South America (130 degrees W-20 degrees W), and southern Africa (20 degrees W-60 degrees E). The common COLs features in these sectors for both reanalyses are a short lifetime (similar to 80.0% and similar to 70.0% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, persisting for up to 3 days), mobility (similar to 70.0% and similar to 50% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, traveling distances of up to 1200 km), and an eastward propagation.

Kappaphycus alvarezii (Rhodophyta, Areschougiaceae) cultivated in subtropical waters in Southern Brazil

Four strains of Kappaphycus alvarezii were cultivated in the subtropical waters of Florianopolis, Santa Catarina State, Brazil (27 degrees 29`19 `` S/48 degrees 32` 28 `` W), from February 2009 to February 2010. Seaweeds were cultivated on floating raft near of mussel farms. Salinity ranged from 29 to 36 psu and temperature from 17.1 to 28.5 degrees C. Higher growth rates (5.12-4.29% day(-1)) were measured in summer and autumn, showing a positive correlation between growth rate and water temperature. Lower growth rates (0.54-0.32% day(-1)) occurred in winter, resulted mainly by biomass loss. Significant differences were observed among the strains in spring and the brown tetrasporophytic strain was the only one which failed to recover, being excluded of the experiments. The effect of cultivation periods (36, 42, and 97 days) on carrageenan yield, gel strength, and viscosity were analyzed. Carrageenan yields were higher for plants kept 42 days in the sea (28%), against 25% for 36 and 97 days. There were no significant differences in carrageenan yield among the strains analyzed. Viscosity increased with the increase of cultivation period, while gel strength seemed to vary at random. Tetrasporangia and cystocarps were not observed, and lost fragments did not attach outside the raft. In general, dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentration decreased around the cultivation area as compared to the mussel farm. Results show that cultivation of K. alvarezii is technically feasible in subtropical waters and can be associated with local mussel farms, mitigating the eutrophication and, eventually, increasing the economic return of the farmers.

Citizens and Contemporary Science Ways to dialogue in science centre contexts.

The current paper presents a study conducted at At-Bristol Science Centre, UK. It is a front-end evaluation for the “Live Science Zone” at At-Bristol, which will be built during the autumn of 2004. It will provide a facility for programmed events and shows, non-programmed investigative activities and the choice of passive or active exploration of current scientific topics. The main aim of the study is to determine characteristics of what kind of techniques to use in the Live Science Zone. The objectives are to explore what has already been done at At-Bristol, and what has been done at other science centres, and to identify successful devices. The secondary aim is mapping what sorts of topics that visitors are actually interested in debating. The methods used in the study are deep qualitative interviews with professionals working within the field of science communication in Europe and North America, and questionnaires answered by visitors to At-Bristol. The results show that there are some gaps between the intentions of the professionals and the opinions of the visitors, in terms of opportunities and willingness for dialogue in science centre activities. The most popular issue was Future and the most popular device was Film.

Produktion av marknadsförings- och korrespondensmaterial för DUCIS

The report describes the production of graphic correspondence and marketing material for DUCIS(Dalarna University Centre for Irish Studies).A logotype symbol is created on the basis of an element from the Celtic art, and a graphic material thatharmonies with this ideal of style is built around the symbol. A unique visiting card, correspondence cardand letterhead is produced to strengthen the identity of DUCIS outwards.The work proceeds with an international education folder which is an important element in the marketingwork for the MA-education which starts in the autumn of 2003. Two posters, one for the opening ofDUCIS in may 2003 and one for a conference in 2004, are produced. Finally, a redesign of the book coverfor NIS, Nordic Irish Studies, is carried out.The report describes the working process consisting of meetings, practical work and other elementswithin the process. The conclusion is that the work has been quite successful and that this, to a largeextent, depended on an engaged and supporting commissioner. The commissioner also is very satisfi edwith the results.The in-depth studies of the project is about the art and design of the Celtic culture throughout history.The text gives an account for the history and expressions of Celtic art from its birth, 2800 years ago, untilits death in 13th century Ireland and Scotland. Special attention is payed to the golden age of ChristianCeltic art on the british islands, the era from which the pattern of the DUCIS logotype originates.