Bringing the Past Back in: How Attitudes towards the Democratic Transition Influence the Portuguese Voter

This article analyses the way in which attitudes towards the transition to democracy explain party identification and ideology in Portugal. This question is important because the transition to democracy in Portugal was a turbulent process marked by a rupture with the past and institutional fluidity. It has also conditioned the main political parties’ relationships with the electorate and each other since 1974. I compare the same explanatory model results from two surveys, conducted in 2004 and 2014, respectively, to understand the extent to which perceptions about the transition help characterise the Portuguese voter over the last decade.

The Impact of TTIP: The underlying economic model and comparisons. CEPS Special Report No. 93/13 October 2014. [TTIP Series No. 1]

What are the economic and other impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership? At the request of the European Parliament, CEPS has provided an appraisal of the TTIP Impact Assessment carried out by the European Commission, with special elaboration of the underlying economic model. The methodology applied by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) for this economic modelling is analysed in depth, together with the assumptions used to make TTIP amenable to an economic appraisal. The research paper also compares the IA on TTIP with selected previous empirical economic assessments of EU trade agreements and with a set of alternative studies on TTIP itself. In reading our findings, two central caveats should be kept in mind that affect any analysis of the CGE model included in the European Commission’s Impact Assessment. First, TTIP is a rather unusual bilateral trade agreement; and second, TTIP is so wide-ranging that an alternative approach, such as the so-called ‘partial’ (equilibrium) approach – already a second-best solution – would be totally inappropriate to the case under examination.

Model for provisional (graduated) licensing of young novice drivers. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Evaluation of the comfort and convenience of safety belt systems in 1980 and 1981 model vehicles. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Driver and Pedestrian Research, Washington, D.C.

‘Neutral, native-like or authentic’ : Investigating attitudes and beliefs of expanding circle speakers of English

The status of English as the language of international communication is by now well-established. However, in the past 16 years, research has tried to emphasize the fact that the English spoken in international contact situations and between people with other first languages than English has different needs than the English spoken locally amongst native speakers, resulting in the emergence of English as a lingua franca (ELF) as a scholarly field. However, the impact of findings in ELF has so far only led to a moderate shift in English language teaching. Especially in expanding circle countries, where ELF should have the biggest impact, change is only gradually becoming palpable. Accent and pronunciation, as one of the biggest factors on both identity and mutual intelligibility (Jenkins 2000; 2007) are at the root of discussion. The scope of this study is therefore to examine accent choices and the extent to which native speaker ideology informs the preferences of ten speakers of ELF and 27 German natives with experience in international communication. Both ethnographical and sociolinguistic methods, as well as auditory analysis have been applied and conducted. The auditory analysis of six variables in the recorded speech production of the ten speakers suggests that there is no significant preference of one norm-giving variety over the other. Rather, speakers tend to mix-and-match General American- and Standard Southern British English-like features in their pronunciation. When reporting their accent ideals, the idea of a ‘neutral’ English accent is mentioned by four participants. Neutral accents seem to have been understood as ‘unmarked accents’. Expressed beliefs on their own English pronunciation show a comparatively high level of reflection on and confidence in their own production. Results from a rating task and a survey given to 27 German participants reveal attitudes that are more negatively stacked. While Germans reported openness towards NNS (non-native speaker) accents and showed awareness of the priority of intelligibility over accent choice in both their own and others’ pronunciation, they still largely reported NS accent preference. The ratings of the production from ten ELF speakers confirmed this and showed that ‘neutral’ is equated with native-like. In the light of these findings, issues are discussed that ultimately relate to the influence of NS Englishes, identity and the development of English as an international language.

Safer Conception Among HIV-1 Sero-Discordant Couples in East Africa: Understanding Knowledge, Attitudes, and Experiences

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Finite mixture regression model with random effects: application to neonatal hospital length of stay

A two-component mixture regression model that allows simultaneously for heterogeneity and dependency among observations is proposed. By specifying random effects explicitly in the linear predictor of the mixture probability and the mixture components, parameter estimation is achieved by maximising the corresponding best linear unbiased prediction type log-likelihood. Approximate residual maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an EM algorithm in the manner of generalised linear mixed model (GLMM). The method can be extended to a g-component mixture regression model with the component density from the exponential family, leading to the development of the class of finite mixture GLMM. For illustration, the method is applied to analyse neonatal length of stay (LOS). It is shown that identification of pertinent factors that influence hospital LOS can provide important information for health care planning and resource allocation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Resistance to persuasive messages as a function of majority and minority source status

Three experiments examined the extent to which attitudes following majority and minority influence are resistant to counter-persuasion. In Experiment 1, participants' attitudes were measured after being exposed to two messages which argued opposite positions (initial pro-attitudinal message and subsequent, counter-attitudinal counter-message). Attitudes following minority endorsement of the initial message were more resistant to a (second) counter-message than attitudes following majority endorsement of the initial message. Experiment 2 replicated this finding when the message direction was reversed (counter-attitudinal initial message and pro-attitudinal counter-message) and showed that the level of message elaboration mediated the amount of attitude resistance. Experiment 3 included conditions where participants received only the counter-message and showed that minority-source participants had resisted the second message (counter-message) rather than being influenced by it. These results show that minority influence induces systematic processing of its arguments which leads to attitudes which are resistant to counter-persuasion. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Partitioned likelihood support and the evaluation of data set conflict

In simultaneous analyses of multiple data partitions, the trees relevant when measuring support for a clade are the optimal tree, and the best tree lacking the clade (i.e., the most reasonable alternative). The parsimony-based method of partitioned branch support (PBS) forces each data set to arbitrate between the two relevant trees. This value is the amount each data set contributes to clade support in the combined analysis, and can be very different to support apparent in separate analyses. The approach used in PBS can also be employed in likelihood: a simultaneous analysis of all data retrieves the maximum likelihood tree, and the best tree without the clade of interest is also found. Each data set is fitted to the two trees and the log-likelihood difference calculated, giving partitioned likelihood support (PLS) for each data set. These calculations can be performed regardless of the complexity of the ML model adopted. The significance of PLS can be evaluated using a variety of resampling methods, such as the Kishino-Hasegawa test, the Shimodiara-Hasegawa test, or likelihood weights, although the appropriateness and assumptions of these tests remains debated.

Attitudes and beliefs of oral health professionals regarding their role in health promotion

Issues addressed: The study was designed to gain an understanding of health promotion from the perspective of oral health professionals employed in the public sector during a transition in the focus of services. Methods: A cross sectional survey of oral health professionals employed by Queensland Health was conducted between March and April 2001. Staff were randomly sampled from employment records. A proportionate random sample, stratified across professional groups and geographical zones, was selected. Results: While the majority of the health professionals surveyed perceived oral health promotion to be part of their role, they felt ill equipped to adopt it. Professional groups differed in their confidence and perception of how to promote health in their clinical setting, existing barriers they encountered and their participation in health promotion programs. Conclusions: Strategies to improve the adoption of the oral health promotion role within Queensland public oral health services include: regular in- service and education for all staff regarding health promotion issues; increased cohesion of the oral health team; intersectorial collaboration; supportive district management; and a refocus to primary health care and public health concepts

On a resampling approach for tests on the number of clusters with mixture model-based clustering of tissue samples

We consider the problem of assessing the number of clusters in a limited number of tissue samples containing gene expressions for possibly several thousands of genes. It is proposed to use a normal mixture model-based approach to the clustering of the tissue samples. One advantage of this approach is that the question on the number of clusters in the data can be formulated in terms of a test on the smallest number of components in the mixture model compatible with the data. This test can be carried out on the basis of the likelihood ratio test statistic, using resampling to assess its null distribution. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated on simulated data and on some microarray datasets, as considered previously in the bioinformatics literature. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Speeding up the EM algorithm for mixture model-based segmentation of magnetic resonance images

Mixture models implemented via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm are being increasingly used in a wide range of problems in pattern recognition such as image segmentation. However, the EM algorithm requires considerable computational time in its application to huge data sets such as a three-dimensional magnetic resonance (MR) image of over 10 million voxels. Recently, it was shown that a sparse, incremental version of the EM algorithm could improve its rate of convergence. In this paper, we show how this modified EM algorithm can be speeded up further by adopting a multiresolution kd-tree structure in performing the E-step. The proposed algorithm outperforms some other variants of the EM algorithm for segmenting MR images of the human brain. (C) 2004 Pattern Recognition Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Invariant risk attitudes

Concepts of constant absolute risk aversion and constant relative risk aversion have proved useful in the analysis of choice under uncertainty, but are quite restrictive, particularly when they are imposed jointly. A generalization of constant risk aversion, referred to as invariant risk aversion is developed. Invariant risk aversion is closely related to the possibility of representing preferences over state-contingent income vectors in terms of two parameters, the mean and a linearly homogeneous, translation-invariant index of riskiness. The best-known index with such properties is the standard deviation. The properties of the capital asset pricing model, usually expressed in terms of the mean and standard deviation, may be extended to the case of general invariant preferences. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: The method of triads model

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of beta-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling. Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for alpha-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by beta- carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b- cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative. Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.

Mixed model formulations for multi-environment trials

When studying genotype X environment interaction in multi-environment trials, plant breeders and geneticists often consider one of the effects, environments or genotypes, to be fixed and the other to be random. However, there are two main formulations for variance component estimation for the mixed model situation, referred to as the unconstrained-parameters (UP) and constrained-parameters (CP) formulations. These formulations give different estimates of genetic correlation and heritability as well as different tests of significance for the random effects factor. The definition of main effects and interactions and the consequences of such definitions should be clearly understood, and the selected formulation should be consistent for both fixed and random effects. A discussion of the practical outcomes of using the two formulations in the analysis of balanced data from multi-environment trials is presented. It is recommended that the CP formulation be used because of the meaning of its parameters and the corresponding variance components. When managed (fixed) environments are considered, users will have more confidence in prediction for them but will not be overconfident in prediction in the target (random) environments. Genetic gain (predicted response to selection in the target environments from the managed environments) is independent of formulation.