Coupled fire/evacuation analysis of the Station Nightclub fire

In this paper, coupled fire and evacuation simulation tools are used to simulate the Station Nightclub fire. This study differs from the analysis conducted by NIST in three key areas; (1)an enhanced flame spread model and (2)a toxicity generation model are used, (3)the evacuation is coupled to the fire simulation. Predicted early burning locations in the full-scale fire simulation are in line with photographic evidence and the predicted onset of flashover is similar to that produced by NIST. However, it is suggested that both predictions of the flashover time are approximately 15 sec earlier than actually occurred. Three evacuation scenarios are then considered, two of which are coupled with the fire simulation. The coupled fire and evacuation simulation suggests that 180 fatalities result from a building population of 460. With a 15 sec delay in the fire timeline, the evacuation simulation produces 84 fatalities which are in good agreement with actual number of fatalities. An important observation resulting from this work is that traditional fire engineering ASET/RSET calculations which do not couple the fire and evacuation simulations have the potential to be considerably over optimistic in terms of the level of safety achieved by building designs.

A framework for state-based time-series analysis and prediction

Time-series analysis and prediction play an important role in state-based systems that involve dealing with varying situations in terms of states of the world evolving with time. Generally speaking, the world in the discourse persists in a given state until something occurs to it into another state. This paper introduces a framework for prediction and analysis based on time-series of states. It takes a time theory that addresses both points and intervals as primitive time elements as the temporal basis. A state of the world under consideration is defined as a set of time-varying propositions with Boolean truth-values that are dependent on time, including properties, facts, actions, events and processes, etc. A time-series of states is then formalized as a list of states that are temporally ordered one after another. The framework supports explicit expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge. A formal schema for expressing general time-series of states to be incomplete in various ways, while the concept of complete time-series of states is also formally defined. As applications of the formalism in time-series analysis and prediction, we present two illustrating examples.

An analysis of masculine and feminine writings in postings within a series of health and social care online undergraduate courses

This study aims to extend understanding of pedagogic dialogue by analysing the effect that the gender of the student has on interaction within a selection of ordinary health and social care on line courses.

Association for Learning Technology Annual Survey 2014 Data and Report

This is the first report from ALT’s new Annual Survey launched in December 2014. This survey was primarily for ALT members (individual or at an organisation which is an organisational member) it could however also be filled in by others, perhaps those interested in taking out membership. The report and data highlight emerging work areas that are important to the survey respondents. Analysis of the survey responses indicates a number of areas ALT should continue to support and develop. Priorities for the membership are ‘Intelligent use of learning technology’ and ‘Research and practice’, aligned to this is the value placed by respondent’s on by communication via the ALT Newsletter/News, social media and Research in Learning Technology. The survey also reveals ‘Data and Analytics’ and ‘Open Education’ are areas where the majority of respondents are finding are becoming increasingly important. As such our community may benefit from development opportunities ALT can provide. The survey is also a reminder that ALT has an essential role in enabling members to develop research and practice in areas which might be considered as minority interest. For example whilst the majority of respondents didn't indicate areas such as ‘Digital and Open Badges’, and ‘Game Based Learning’ as important there are still members who consider these areas are very significant and becoming increasingly valuable and as such ALT will continue to better support these groups within our community. Whilst ALT has conducted previous surveys of ALT membership this is the first iteration in this form. ALT has committed to surveying the sector on an annual basis, refining the core question set but trying to preserve an opportunity for longitudinal analysis.

Association for Learning Technology Annual Survey 2015 Data and Report.

This is the second report of the ALT’s Annual Survey which was open for responses between the 1st December 2015 and 17th January 2016. In total 196 responses have been analysed as part of this report. Given a number of core questions remain unchanged between this and the 2014 edition of the survey analysis includes data from the previous survey.

A guide to the assessment of heavy metal contamination in estuaries using biological indicators. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 4

The rationale behind the use of analyses of estuarine organisms to assess levels of heavy-metal contamination is described and compared with alternative methods such as the analysis of waters or sediments. Based on field observations in United Kingdom estuaries and on evidence from the literature, an assessment is made of the suitability of 17 species as the indicators of metals and metalloids including Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Se, Sn, Pb and Zn.

Characterisation of the South West European Marine Sites: Summary Report. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 14

The UK and EU have recently committed to an ecosystem-based approach to the management of our marine environment. In line with the requirements of the Habitats regulations, all consents likely to significantly affect Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) are to be reviewed. As part of this process, 'site characterisation' is seen as an important first step towards the improved management of designated sites. This characterisation series, undertaken by the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom and funded by the Environment Agency and English Nature, sets out to determine the current status of designated marine sites in South West England, and how vulnerable (or robust) they are to contaminants (metals, organics, nutrients) and other anthropogenic pressures. Using published information and unpublished data-sets from regulatory agencies, conservation bodies and research institutes (particularly those of the PMPS*), evidence is compiled on the links between potentially harmful 'activities', environmental quality, and resultant biological consequences. This includes an evaluation of long-term change. The focus is the effect of water and sediment quality on the key interest features of European Marine sites in the South West of England, namely: - Fal and Helford cSAC (MBA Occasional Publication 8) - Plymouth Sound and Estuaries cSAC/ SPA (MBA Occasional Publication 9) - Exe Estuary SPA (MBA Occasional Publication 10) - Chesil and the Fleet cSAC/ SPA (MBA Occasional Publication 11) - Poole Harbour SPA (MBA Occasional Publication 12) - Severn Estuary pSAC/SPA (MBA Occasional Publication 13) Detailed analysis for each of these sites is provided individually. The summary report contains an overview of physical properties, uses and vulnerability for each of these sites, together with brief comparisons of pollution sources, chemical exposure (via sediment and water) and evidence of biological impact (from bioaccumulation to community-level response). Limitations of the data, and gaps in our understanding of these systems are highlighted and suggestions are put forward as to where future research and surveillance is most needed. Hopefully this may assist the statutory authorities in targeting future monitoring and remedial activities. * PMSP: Plymouth Marine Sciences Partnership, comprising the Marine Biological Association (MBA), University of Plymouth (UoP), the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, and Plymouth Marine Laboratories (PML)

Molecular analysis of Continuous Plankton Recorder samples, an examination of echinoderm larvae in the North Sea

Analysis of the biological time series of plankton samples collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) in the North Atlantic and North Sea has shown a regime shift in the plankton in this region. Both the distributions of planktonic organisms and their timing of occurrence in the seasonal cycle have changed and these changes appear to ref lect global warming. In the North Sea the planktonic larvae of echinoderms have shown a recent dramatic increase in both relative and absolute abundance and their seasonal peak of occurrence has advanced by 47 days. The identity of the echinoderm larvae involved in this change has, however, remained equivocal. The small size of many organisms like echinoderm larvae combined with incomplete taxonomic keys hinders their visual identification and their fragility often means that useful morphological features are damaged during sampling by the CPR. Here, using new molecular methods applied to CPR samples, we show that planktonic larvae of the benthic Echinocardium cordatum dominate the North Sea plankton. We argue that since this species benefits from mild winters and warmer waters their numerical increase in the plankton is consistent with recent climatic changes that appear to be affecting the wider ecology of this region.

English Channel towed sledge seabed images. Phase 2: Analysis of selected tow images

During the 1970s and 1980s, the late Dr Norman Holme undertook extensive towed sledge surveys in the English Channel and some in the Irish Sea. Only a minority of the resulting images were analysed and reported before his death in 1989 but logbooks, video and film material has been archived in the National Marine Biological Library (NMBL) in Plymouth. A study was therefore commissioned by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee and as a part of the Mapping European Seabed Habitats (MESH) project to identify the value of the material archived and the procedure and cost to undertake further work (Phase 1 of the study reported here: Oakley & Hiscock, 2005). Some image analysis was undertaken as a part of Phase 1. Phase 2 (this report) was to further analyse selected images. Having determined in Phase 1 that only the 35 mm photographic transparencies provided sufficient clarity to identify species and biotopes, the tows selected for analysis were ones where 35mm images had been taken. The tows selected for analysis of images were mainly in the vicinity of Plymouth and especially along the area between Rame Head and the region of the Eddystone. The 35 mm films were viewed under a binocular microscope and the taxa that could be recognised recorded in note form. Twenty-five images were selected for inclusion in the report. Almost all of the images were of level sediment seabed. Where rocks were included, it was usually unplanned and the sled was hauled before being caught or damaged. The main biotopes or biotope complexes identified were: SS.SMU.CSaMu. Circalittoral sandy mud. Extensively present between the shore and the Eddystone Reef complex and at depths of about 48 to 52 m. At one site offshore of Plymouth Sound, the turret shell Turritella communis was abundant. In some areas, this biotope had dense anemones, Mesacmaea mitchelli and (more rarely) Cerianthus lloydii. Queen scallops, Aequipecten opercularis and king scallops, Pecten maximus, were sometimes present in small numbers. Hard substratum species such as hydroids, dead mens fingers Alcyonium digitatum and the cup coral Caryophyllia smithii occurred in a few places, probably attached to shells or stones beneath the surface. South of the spoil ground off Hilsea Point at 57m depth, the sediment was muddier but is still assigned to this biotope complex. It is notable that three small sea pens, most likely Virgularia mirabilis, were seen here. SS.SMx.CMx. Circalittoral mixed sediment. Further offshore but at about the same depth as SS.SMU.CSaMu occurred, coarse gravel with some silt was present. The sediment was characterised must conspicuously by small queen scallops, Aequipecten opercularis. Peculiarly, there were ‘bundles’ of the branching bryozoan Cellaria sp. – a species normally found attached to rock. It could not be seen whether these bundles of Cellaria had been brought-together by terebellid worms but it is notable that Cellaria is recorded in historical surveys. As with many other sediments, there were occasional brittle stars, Ophiocomina nigra and Ophiura ophiura. Where sediments were muddy, the burrowing anemone Mesacmaea mitchelli was common. Where pebbles or cobbles occurred, there were attached species such as Alcyonium digitatum, Caryophyllia smithii and the fleshy bryozoan Alcyonidium diaphanum. Undescribed biotope. Although most likely a part of SS.SMx.CMx, the biotope visually dominated by a terebellid worm believed to be Thelepus cincinnatua, is worth special attention as it may be an undescribed biotope. The biotope occurred about 22 nautical miles south of the latitude of the Eddystone and in depths in excess of 70 m. SS.SCS.CCS.Blan. Branchiostoma lanceolatum in circalittoral coarse sand with shell gravel at about 48m depth and less. This habitat was the ‘classic’ ‘Eddystone Shell Gravel’ which is sampled for Branchiostoma lanceolatum. However, no Branchiostoma lanceolatum could be seen. The gravel was almost entirely bare of epibiota. There were occasional rock outcrops or cobbles which had epibiota including encrusting calcareous algae, the sea fan Eunicella verrucosa, cup corals, Caryophyllia smithii, hydroids and a sea urchin Echinus esculentus. The variety of species visible on the surface is small and therefore identification to biotope not usually possible. Historical records from sampling surveys that used grabs and dredges at the end of the 19th century and early 20th century suggest similar species present then. Illustrations of some of the infaunal communities from work in the 1920’s is included in this report to provide a context to the epifaunal photographs.

English Channel towed sledge seabed images. Phase 1: scoping study and example analysis

During the 1970’s and 1980’s, the late Dr Norman Holme undertook extensive towed sledge surveys in the English Channel and some in the Irish Sea. Only a minority of the resulting images were analysed and reported before his death in 1989 but logbooks, video and film material has been archived in the National Marine Biological Library (NMBL) in Plymouth. A scoping study was therefore commissioned by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee and as a part of the Mapping European Seabed Habitats (MESH) project to identify the value of the material archived and the procedure and cost to undertake further work. The results of the scoping study are: 1. NMBL archives hold 106 videotapes (reel-to-reel Sony HD format) and 59 video cassettes (including 15 from the Irish Sea) in VHS format together with 90 rolls of 35 mm colour transparency film (various lengths up to about 240 frames per film). These are stored in the Archive Room, either in a storage cabinet or in original film canisters. 2. Reel-to-reel material is extensive and had already been selectively copied to VHS cassettes. The cost of transferring it to an accepted ‘long-life’ medium (Betamax) would be approximately £15,000. It was not possible to view the tapes as a suitable machine was not located. The value of the tapes is uncertain but they are likely to become beyond salvation within one to two years. 3. Video cassette material is in good condition and is expected to remain so for several more years at least. Images viewed were generally of poor quality and the speed of tow often makes pictures blurred. No immediate action is required. 4. Colour transparency films are in good condition and the images are very clear. They provide the best source of information for mapping seabed biotopes. They should be scanned to digital format but inexpensive fast copying is problematic as there are no between-frame breaks between images and machines need to centre the image based on between-frame breaks. The minimum cost to scan all of the images commercially is approximately £6,000 and could be as much as £40,000 on some quotations. There is a further cost in coding and databasing each image and, all-in-all it would seem most economic to purchase a ‘continuous film’ scanner and undertake the work in-house. 5. Positional information in ships logs has been matched to films and to video tapes. Decca Chain co-ordinates recorded in the logbooks have been converted to latitude and longitude (degrees, minutes and seconds) and a further routine developed to convert to degrees and decimal degrees required for GIS mapping. However, it is unclear whether corrections to Decca positions were applied at the time the position was noted. Tow tracks have been mapped onto an electronic copy of a Hydrographic Office chart. 6. The positions of start and end of each tow were entered to a spread sheet so that they can be displayed on GIS or on a Hydrographic Office Chart backdrop. The cost of the Hydrographic Office chart backdrop at a scale of 1:75,000 for the whole area was £458 incl. VAT. 7. Viewing all of the video cassettes to note habitats and biological communities, even by an experienced marine biologist, would take at least in the order of 200 hours and is not recommended. English Channel towed sledge seabed images. Phase 1: scoping study and example analysis. 6 8. Once colour transparencies are scanned and indexed, viewing to identify seabed habitats and biological communities would probably take about 100 hours for an experienced marine biologist and is recommended. 9. It is expected that identifying biotopes along approximately 1 km lengths of each tow would be feasible although uncertainties about Decca co-ordinate corrections and exact positions of images most likely gives a ±250 m position error. More work to locate each image accurately and solve the Decca correction question would improve accuracy of image location. 10. Using codings (produced by Holme to identify different seabed types), and some viewing of video and transparency material, 10 biotopes have been identified, although more would be added as a result of full analysis. 11. Using the data available from the Holme archive, it is possible to populate various fields within the Marine Recorder database. The overall ‘survey’ will be ‘English Channel towed video sled survey’. The ‘events’ become the 104 tows. Each tow could be described as four samples, i.e. the start and end of the tow and two areas in the middle to give examples along the length of the tow. These samples would have their own latitude/longitude co-ordinates. The four samples would link to a GIS map. 12. Stills and video clips together with text information could be incorporated into a multimedia presentation, to demonstrate the range of level seabed types found along a part of the northern English Channel. More recent images taken during SCUBA diving of reef habitats in the same area as the towed sledge surveys could be added to the Holme images.

The Russell Cycle. An update and review of trends in zooplankton and fish larvae off Plymouth 1924-2009. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 24

Regular plankton sampling off Plymouth by the Marine Biological Association (MBA) has been carried out from the early 1900s. Much of the sample analysis and description of the results was carried out by Sir Frederick Russell and Professor Alan Southward (AJS), the latter having completed the organisation and transfer of the paper records to digital files. The current authors have transferred the main data files of AJS on zooplankton and fish larvae to the MBA long-term database (including various editing and checking against original analysis records and published data) together with adding the data for 2002-2009. In this report the updated time-series are reviewed in the context of earlier work, particularly with respect to the Russell Cycle. It is not intended as an exhaustive analysis. Brief details of the sampling and comments on data processing are given in an appendix.

Analysis of the footprint in school age of 8-10 years old

Biomechanical problems in children, is an important subject currently, existing controversy in different areas, for example, the majority of children have a flattened footprint, or the hypermobility joint is linked to a musculoskeletal pain. The objective of the study was to determine what kind of footprint is most frequent in school-age children (8-10 years) in the area of Plasencia. This was taken as a sign 50 children, of whom 28 were males and 22 females. All the subjects in the study underwent an assessment of footprint planted in static as well as an exploration of different parameters through inspection in a standing position (formula digital, rearfoot). The results show that excavated footprint is present in a 72% cases of the population, 16% was belonging to an excavated footprint in which we find a higher percentage of weight related.For the digital formula we find that the most common is the Egyptian foot by 40% of the cases and that the prevalence in the rearfoot, is a normal hindfoot. In relation with the hypermobility joint, we check that it is more common in girls and that none of them presents an association to musculoskeletal pain. As a future line we could establish a more comprehensive study with new techniques and valuingchild’s statics and dynamics, to have a more accurate study of the different variables in the sample population studied.