Choice and Welfare Reform: Lone Parents’ Decision Making around Paid Work and Family Life

Welfare-to-work policy in the UK sees ‘choice’ regarding lone parents’ employment decisions increasingly defined in terms of powers of selection between options within active labour market programmes, with constraints on the option of non-market activity progressively tightened. In this paper, we examine the wider choice agenda in public services in relation to lone-parent employment, focusing on the period of welfare reform following the 2007 Freud review of welfare provision. Survey data is used to estimate the extent to which recent policies promoting compulsory job search by youngest dependent child age map onto lone parents' own stated decision-making regarding if and when to enter the labour market. The findings indicate a substantial proportion of lone parents targeted by policy reform currently do not want a job and that their main reported reason is that they are looking after their children. Economically inactive lone mothers also remain more likely to have other chronic employment barriers, which traverse dependent child age categories. Some problems, such as poor health, sickness or disability, are particularly acute among those with older dependent children who are the target of recent activation policy.

Experiences of carers supporting dying renal patients managed without dialysis

Aim: To explore the impact of being a family carer to patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease managed without dialysis.
Background: Increasing numbers of patients with renal disease worldwide are making the decision not to embark on dialysis. This group has significant physical and psychological symptom burdens similar to or greater than those in advanced cancer patients. Little is known about the impact on family carers.
Design: Exploratory, qualitative design.
Methods: The study was undertaken with 19 carers caring for patients managed in a Renal Supportive Care Service in the UK between 2006–2008. Sixty-one semi-structured interviews and detailed field notes inform the analysis.
Findings: ‘Caring from diagnosis to death’ was the overarching theme illustrated by three sub-themes: (i) Caregiver's plight – making sense of the disease and potential deterioration; (ii) Having to care indefinitely; and (iii) Avoiding talk of death. ‘Caring from diagnosis to death’ coincides with an original concept analysis of renal supportive care, which is considered an adjunct to the management of patients with renal disease at all stages of their illness.
Conclusion: There is a clear need for further research internationally and theory-based nursing interventions to support carers of patients managed without dialysis. The development of a holistic, integrated care pathway based on carer perspectives, which includes identification of information needs related to original diagnosis, associated comorbidities, treatment options, prognosis, and assistance in developing strategies to manage communication with patients as the end of life approaches, is required.

Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) delivered over 4 or 11days: A comparison of acute toxicity and quality of life.

Abstract
PURPOSE:
The optimal duration over which lung SBRT should be delivered is unknown. We conducted a randomized pilot study in patients treated with four fractions of lung SBRT delivered over 4 or over 11days.
METHODS:
Patients with a peripheral solitary lung tumor (NSCLC or pulmonary metastasis) ?5cm were eligible. For NSCLC lung tumors ?3cm, a dose of 48Gy in 4 fractions was used, otherwise 52Gy in 4 fractions was delivered. Patients were randomized to receive treatment over 4 consecutive days or over 11days. The primary end-point was acute grade ?2 toxicity. Secondary end-points included quality of life (QOL) assessed using the EORTC QLQ-C30 and QLQ-LC13 questionnaires.
RESULTS:
Fifty four patients were enrolled. More patients in the 11day group had respiratory symptoms at baseline. 55.6% patients treated over 4days and 33.3% of patients treated over 11days experienced acute grade ?2 toxicity (p=0.085). Dyspnea, fatigue and coughing domains were worse in the 11day group at baseline. At 1 and 4months, more patients in the 4day group experienced a clinically meaningful worsening in the dyspnea QOL domain compared to the 11day group (44.5% vs 15.4%, p=0.02; 38.5% vs 12.0%, p=0.03, respectively). However, raw QOL scores were not different at these time-points between treatment groups.
CONCLUSIONS:
Grade 2 or higher acute toxicity was more common in the 4day group, approaching statistical significance. More patients treated on 4 consecutive days reported a clinically meaningful increase in dyspnea, although interpretation of these results is challenging due to baseline imbalance between treatment groups. Larger studies are required to validate these results.

Impact of community based, specialist palliative care teams on hospitalisations and emergency department visits late in life and hospital deaths: a pooled analysis

Objective: To determine the pooled effect of exposure to one of 11 specialist palliative care teams providing services in patients’ homes.Design: Pooled analysis of a retrospective cohort study.Setting: Ontario, Canada.Participants: 3109 patients who received care from specialist palliative care teams in 2009-11 (exposed) matched by propensity score to 3109 patients who received usual care (unexposed).Intervention: The palliative care teams studied served different geographies and varied in team composition and size but had the same core team members and role: a core group of palliative care physicians, nurses, and family physicians who provide integrated palliative care to patients in their homes. The teams’ role was to manage symptoms, provide education and care, coordinate services, and be available without interruption regardless of time or day.Main outcome measures: Patients (a) being in hospital in the last two weeks of life; (b) having an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life; or (c) dying in hospital.Results: In both exposed and unexposed groups, about 80% had cancer and 78% received end of life homecare services for the same average duration. Across all palliative care teams, 970 (31.2%) of the exposed group were in hospital and 896 (28.9%) had an emergency department visit in the last two weeks of life respectively, compared with 1219 (39.3%) and 1070 (34.5%) of the unexposed group (P<0.001). The pooled relative risks of being in hospital and having an emergency department visit in late life comparing exposed versus unexposed were 0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.76) and 0.77 (0.69 to 0.86) respectively. Fewer exposed than unexposed patients died in hospital (503 (16.2%) v 887 (28.6%), P<0.001), and the pooled relative risk of dying in hospital was 0.46 (0.40 to 0.52).Conclusions: Community based specialist palliative care teams, despite variation in team composition and geographies, were effective at reducing acute care use and hospital deaths at the end of life.

Long-term health-related quality of life of prostate cancer survivors varies by primary treatment. Results from the PiCTure (Prostate Cancer Treatment, your experience) study

PURPOSE: Men are living longer with prostate cancer. In a two-country study, we investigated the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of prostate cancer survivors up to 18 years post-diagnosis.

METHODS: Postal questionnaires were administered in 2012 to 6559 prostate cancer (ICD10 C61) survivors 2-18 years post-diagnosis, identified through population-based cancer registries in Ireland. HRQoL was measured using QLQ-C30 and QLQ-PR25. HRQoL, functional and symptom scores were compared by primary treatment(s) using multiple linear regression.

RESULTS: Fifty-four percent responded (n = 3348). After controlling for socio-demographic and clinical factors, global HRQoL varied significantly by primary treatment (p < 0.001); compared to radical prostatectomy (RP), survivors who received androgen deprivation therapy alone (ADT; p < 0.001) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) without concurrent ADT (p = 0.001) had significantly lower global HRQoL. The global HRQoL of men who received brachytherapy (p = 0.157), EBRT with concurrent ADT (p = 0.940) or active surveillance/watchful waiting (p = 0.388) was not significantly different from men treated with RP. There were statistically and clinically significant differences in general (fatigue, pain, dyspnoea, appetite loss, constipation, diarrhoea, financial difficulties) and disease-specific symptoms (sexual, urinary, bowel, ADT) by primary treatment. Fatigue and insomnia scores were high for survivors in all treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer survivors' long-term HRQoL varied with primary treatment.

IMPLICATIONS OF CANCER SURVIVORS: Population-based information regarding statistically and clinically significant treatment effects on long-term global HRQoL, symptom burden and functionality should be provided during treatment decision-making. Screening for symptoms and utilising interventions during long-term follow-up may improve survivors' HRQoL.

Barriers to Goals of Care Discussions With Seriously Ill Hospitalized Patients and Their Families: A Multicenter Survey of Clinicians

Importance: Seriously ill hospitalized patients have identified communication and decision making about goals of care as high priorities for quality improvement in end-of-life care. Interventions to improve care are more likely to succeed if tailored to existing barriers.

Objective: To determine, from the perspective of hospital-based clinicians, (1) barriers impeding communication and decision making about goals of care with seriously ill hospitalized patients and their families and (2) their own willingness and the acceptability for other clinicians to engage in this process.

Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter survey of medical teaching units of nurses, internal medicine residents, and staff physicians from participating units at 13 university-based hospitals from 5 Canadian provinces.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Importance of 21 barriers to goals of care discussions rated on a 7-point scale (1 = extremely unimportant; 7 = extremely important).

Results: Between September 2012 and March 2013, questionnaires were returned by 1256 of 1617 eligible clinicians, for an overall response rate of 77.7% (512 of 646 nurses [79.3%], 484 of 634 residents [76.3%], 260 of 337 staff physicians [77.2%]). The following family member-related and patient-related factors were consistently identified by all 3 clinician groups as the most important barriers to goals of care discussions: family members' or patients' difficulty accepting a poor prognosis (mean [SD] score, 5.8 [1.2] and 5.6 [1.3], respectively), family members' or patients' difficulty understanding the limitations and complications of life-sustaining treatments (5.8 [1.2] for both groups), disagreement among family members about goals of care (5.8 [1.2]), and patients' incapacity to make goals of care decisions (5.6 [1.2]). Clinicians perceived their own skills and system factors as less important barriers. Participants viewed it as acceptable for all clinician groups to engage in goals of care discussions-including a role for advance practice nurses, nurses, and social workers to initiate goals of care discussions and be a decision coach.

Conclusions and Relevance: Hospital-based clinicians perceive family member-related and patient-related factors as the most important barriers to goals of care discussions. All health care professionals were viewed as playing important roles in addressing goals of care. These findings can inform the design of future interventions to improve communication and decision making about goals of care.

Improving a regional chemotherapy service by learning from deaths occurring within 30 days of treatment with systemic anti-cancer therapy.

Background: Outwith clinical trials, patient outcomes specifically related to SACT (systemic anti-cancer therapy) are not well reported despite a significant proportion of patients receiving active treatment at the end of life. The NCEPOD reviewing deaths within 30 days of SACT found SACT caused or hastened death in 27% of cases.

Method: Across the Northern Ireland cancer network, 95 patients who died within 30 days of SACT for solid tumours were discussed at the Morbidity and Mortality monthly meeting during 2013. Using a structured template, each case was independently reviewed, with particular focus on whether SACT caused or hastened death.

Results: Lung, GI and breast cancers were the most common sites. Performance status was recorded in 92% at time of final SACT cycle (ECOG PS 0-2 89%).

In 57% the cause of death was progressive disease. Other causes included thromboembolism (13%) and infection (5% neutropenic sepsis, 6% non-neutropenic sepsis). In 26% with death from progressive disease, the patient was first cycle of first line treatment for metastatic disease. In the majority discussion regarding treatment aims and risks was documented. Only one patient was receiving SACT with curative intent, who died from appropriately managed neutropenic sepsis.

A definitive decision regarding SACT's role in death was made in 60%: in 49% SACT was deemed non-contributory and in 11% SACT was deemed the cause of death. In 40% SACT did not play a major role, but a definitive negative association could not be made.

Conclusion: Development of a robust review process of 30-day mortality after SACT established a benchmark for SACT delivery for future comparisons and identified areas for SACT service organisation improvement. Moreover it encourages individual practice reflection and highlights the importance of balancing patients' needs and concerns with realistic outcomes and risks, particularly in heavily pre-treated patients or those of poor performance status.

Location-routing problems of semi-obnoxious facilities: approaches and decision support

A presente tese resulta de um trabalho de investigação cujo objectivo se centrou no problema de localização-distribuição (PLD) que pretende abordar, de forma integrada, duas actividades logísticas intimamente relacionadas: a localização de equipamentos e a distribuição de produtos. O PLD, nomeadamente a sua modelação matemática, tem sido estudado na literatura, dando origem a diversas aproximações que resultam de diferentes cenários reais. Importa portanto agrupar as diferentes variantes por forma a facilitar e potenciar a sua investigação. Após fazer uma revisão e propor uma taxonomia dos modelos de localização-distribuição, este trabalho foca-se na resolução de alguns modelos considerados como mais representativos. É feita assim a análise de dois dos PLDs mais básicos (os problema capacitados com procura nos nós e nos arcos), sendo apresentadas, para ambos, propostas de resolução. Posteriormente, é abordada a localização-distribuição de serviços semiobnóxios. Este tipo de serviços, ainda que seja necessário e indispensável para o público em geral, dada a sua natureza, exerce um efeito desagradável sobre as comunidades contíguas. Assim, aos critérios tipicamente utilizados na tomada de decisão sobre a localização destes serviços (habitualmente a minimização de custo) é necessário adicionar preocupações que reflectem a manutenção da qualidade de vida das regiões que sofrem o impacto do resultado da referida decisão. A abordagem da localização-distribuição de serviços semiobnóxios requer portanto uma análise multi-objectivo. Esta análise pode ser feita com recurso a dois métodos distintos: não interactivos e interactivos. Ambos são abordados nesta tese, com novas propostas, sendo o método interactivo proposto aplicável a outros problemas de programação inteira mista multi-objectivo. Por último, é desenvolvida uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão para os problemas abordados nesta tese, sendo apresentada a metodologia adoptada e as suas principais funcionalidades. A ferramenta desenvolvida tem grandes preocupações com a interface de utilizador, visto ser direccionada para decisores que tipicamente não têm conhecimentos sobre os modelos matemáticos subjacentes a este tipo de problemas.

A Psychological Exploration of Long-Term LSD Users

All research involving the psychoactive compound lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) was terminated globally following its prohibition more than 50 years ago, though illicit use remained fairly stable. A considerable resurgence of research interest in LSD has received considerable attention in various publications and professional fora. One of the main applications considered is LSD-assisted psychotherapy to address a number of difficulties like end-of-life anxiety, addiction/alcoholism, post-traumatic stress, and depression. However, due to the highly contradictory nature of early research findings and division in the literature, one is left uncertain as to whether psychology as a profession is currently equipped to critically evaluate these advances, let alone embrace them. The purpose of the present study was to contribute to current psychological knowledge on long-term LSD use. A group of long-term LSD users who claimed beneficial use were the focus here. A mixed methods design was employed. 110 users completed an online survey assessing for demographics, patterns of use, and specific personality traits through three psychometric measures, Big Five Inventory (BFI), General Self Efficacy scale (GSE) and Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Eight individual interviews were also conducted and analysed by Thematic Analysis (TA). Gaining different perspectives on reality and increasing self- awareness appeared to be essential elements of the belief system that these non-problematic long-term LSD users adopted in order to make sense of their LSD use. Qualitative findings also suggested the existence of a common set of life values, rules and the adoption of a hierarchical system between LSD users. Novices appeared to be tutored and guided by elders whose presence and input was valued and who were listened to and respected. A role for ‘wiser/elder’ users as those imparting valuable knowledge to novices was therefore also suggested. The underlying aim may possibly be an attempt to minimise risks and maximise potential benefits of LSD use. A prospective role for LSD as a deterrent of substance misuse, a ‘gateway drug to no drugs’ was also hinted and remains in need of iv further investigation. Claims regarding beneficial LSD use and ‘change’ through LSD use were confirmed by the participant sample. No noteworthy differences between psychometric scores of the LSD-using group and those of the general population (as suggested by normative data comparisons) were found, possibly due to methodological limitations, especially considering the highly subjective nature of the LSD experience and its effects. The determining role of extra-pharmacological variables or ‘set and setting’ in the outcome of LSD use suggested in earlier literature was re-validated. Knowledge on their specific components was enriched, and a potentially significant value for adopting a flexible, adaptable and solution-focused mind-set in order to better manage the effects of LSD was highlighted. Due to the highly selected nature of the participant sample, present findings should serve as suggestions for further research in order to clarify the aforementioned issues and to make explicit the mechanisms by which they operate. The complex nature of LSD, its use and its effects have been re-confirmed here. It is imperative that the current knowledge base on the substance is enriched before LSD is introduced in a clinical psychology professional context.

Cuidados paliativos ao doente em fim de vida num serviço de urgência básico

Tese de mestrado, Cuidados Paliativos, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2015

A review of dynamic Bayesian network techniques with applications in healthcare risk modelling

Coping with an ageing population is a major concern for healthcare organisations around the world. The average cost of hospital care is higher than social care for older and terminally ill patients. Moreover, the average cost of social care increases with the age of the patient. Therefore, it is important to make efficient and fair capacity planning which also incorporates patient centred outcomes. Predictive models can provide predictions which their accuracy can be understood and quantified. Predictive modelling can help patients and carers to get the appropriate support services, and allow clinical decision-makers to improve care quality and reduce the cost of inappropriate hospital and Accident and Emergency admissions. The aim of this study is to provide a review of modelling techniques and frameworks for predictive risk modelling of patients in hospital, based on routinely collected data such as the Hospital Episode Statistics database. A number of sub-problems can be considered such as Length-of-Stay and End-of-Life predictive modelling. The methodologies in the literature are mainly focused on addressing the problems using regression methods and Markov models, and the majority lack generalisability. In some cases, the robustness, accuracy and re-usability of predictive risk models have been shown to be improved using Machine Learning methods. Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques can represent complex correlations models and include small probabilities into the solution. The main focus of this study is to provide a review of major time-varying Dynamic Bayesian Network techniques with applications in healthcare predictive risk modelling.

Stochastic Framework for Strategic Decision-making of Load-serving Entities for Day-ahead Market

The deregulation of electricity markets has diversified the range of financial transaction modes between independent system operator (ISO), generation companies (GENCO) and load-serving entities (LSE) as the main interacting players of a day-ahead market (DAM). LSEs sell electricity to end-users and retail customers. The LSE that owns distributed generation (DG) or energy storage units can supply part of its serving loads when the nodal price of electricity rises. This opportunity stimulates them to have storage or generation facilities at the buses with higher locational marginal prices (LMP). The short-term advantage of this model is reducing the risk of financial losses for LSEs in DAMs and its long-term benefit for the LSEs and the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand. This model also enables the LSEs to manage the financial risks with a stochastic programming framework.

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.