The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring

Statistical–dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to determine present day and future high-resolution rainfall distributions in the catchment of the river Aksu at the southern slopes of the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia. First, a circulation weather type (CWT) classification is employed to define typical lower atmospheric flow regimes from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Selected representatives of each CWT are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 4.8 at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.0625°, using the ERA-40 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. Finally, the simulated representatives are recombined to obtain a high-resolution rainfall climatology for present day climate. The methodology is also applied to ensemble simulations of three different scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 to derive projections of rainfall changes until 2100. Comparisons of downscaled seasonal and annual rainfall with observational data suggest that the statistical–dynamical approach is appropriate to capture the observed present-day precipitation climatology over the low lands and the first elevations of the Tienshan Mountains. On the other hand, a strong bias is found at higher altitudes, where precipitation is clearly underestimated by SDD. The application of SDD to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble reveals that precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century depend on the season. While for autumn an increase of seasonal precipitation is found for all simulations, a decrease in precipitation is obtained during winter for most parts of the Aksu catchment. The spread between different ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble members is strongest in spring, where trends of opposite sign are found. The largest changes in rainfall are simulated for the summer season, which also shows the most pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Most ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 realizations indicate a decrease of annual precipitation over large parts of the Tienshan, and an increase restricted to the southeast of the study area. These results provide a good basis for downscaling present-day and future rainfall distributions for hydrological purposes.

Caries, gender and socio-economic change in the Xavante Indians from Central Brazil

Background: The oral health conditions of indigenous peoples in Amazonia are closely associated with ecological and dietary changes related to interaction with non-Indians. Aim: The study investigated the incidence of caries in an indigenous community from Central Brazil focusing on gender differences. Subjects and methods: The research was conducted among the Xavante Indians and was based on longitudinal data collected in two surveys (1999 and 2004). The study included 128 individuals, 63 (49.2%) males and 65 (50.8%) females, divided in four age brackets (6-12, 13-19, 20-34, 35-60 years of age). The DMFT (decayed, missing and filled teeth) index and incidences (difference between 1999 and 2004) were calculated for each individual. The proportion of incidence was also calculated. Differences in caries risk between gender and age brackets were compared by parametric and non-parametric tests. Results: There were statistically significant differences in relation to caries incidence between age brackets and gender. The greatest incidence was observed in the 20-34 age bracket, which presented 3.30 new decayed teeth, twice the risk of the 6-12 age bracket (p0.01), chosen as reference. While females in most age groups did not show higher risk for caries when compared to males, there was a 4.04-fold risk in the 20-34 age bracket (p0.01). Conclusion: It is concluded that factors related to the social functions of each sex (gender issues) and differential access to information, health services, and education may help to understand the differences observed in the incidence of caries.

Global economic developments, 1999

Includes bibliography

Four thousand years of vegetation and fire history in the spruce forests of northern Kyrgyzstan (Kungey Alatau, Central Asia)

Analyses of pollen, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal in the sediment of a small sub-alpine lake (Karakol, Kyrgyzstan) provide new data to reconstruct the vegetation history of the Kungey Alatau spruce forest during the late-Holocene, i.e. the past 4,000 years. The pollen data suggest that Picea schrenkiana F. and M. was the dominant tree in this region from the beginning of the record. The pollen record of pronounced die-backs of the forests, along with lithostratigraphical evidence, points to possible climatic cooling (and/or drying) around 3,800 cal year B.P., and between 3,350 and 2,520 cal year B.P., with a culmination at 2,800-2,600 cal B.P., although stable climatic conditions are reported for this region for the past 3,000-4,000 years in previous studies. From 2,500 to 190 cal year B.P. high pollen values of P. schrenkiana suggest rather closed and dense forests under the environmental conditions of that time. A marked decline in spruce forests occurred with the onset of modern human activities in the region from 190 cal year B.P. These results show that the present forests are anthropogenically reduced and represent only about half of their potential natural extent. As P. schrenkiana is a species endemic to the western Tien Shan, it is most likely that its refugium was confined to this region. However, our palaeoecological record is too recent to address this hypothesis thoroughly.

Seasonal Deuterium Excess in a Tien Shan Ice Core: Influence of Moisture Transport and Recycling in Central Asia

Stable water isotope (delta(18)O, deltaD) data from a high elevation (5100 masl) ice core recovered from the Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, display a seasonal cycle in deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8* delta(18)O) related to changes in the regional hydrologic cycle during 1994 - 2000. While there is a strong correlation (r(2) = 0.98) between delta(18)O and dD in the ice core samples, the regression slope (6.9) and mean d value (23.0) are significantly different than the global meteoric water line values. The resulting time-series ice core d profile contains distinct winter maxima and summer minima, with a yearly d amplitude of similar to 15 - 20parts per thousand. Local-scale processes that may affect d values preserved in the ice core are not consistent with the observed seasonal variability. Data from Central Asian monitoring sites in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) have similar seasonal d changes. We suggest that regional-scale hydrological conditions, including seasonal changes in moisture source, transport, and recycling in the Caspian/ Aral Sea region, are responsible for the observed spatial and temporal d variability.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Northwest China and Central Asia, 1750 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte de la petite Bukharie et pays voisins : pour servir a l'Histoire générale des voyages, dressée sur les observations les plus récentes par N. Bellin, Ingr. de la Mare., 1749. It was published by Pierre de Hondt in 1750. Scale [ca. 1:8,500,000]. Covers Northwest China, including portions of Xinjiang Uygur Zizhiqu, Gansu Sheng, Qinghai Sheng, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and portions of India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Mongolia. Map in French and Dutch.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, roads, and more. Relief shown pictorially.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

China vs. Central Asia. The achievements of the past two decades. OSW Study 45/2013

The collapse of the USSR brought about conditions conducive to the dynamic development of relations between Central Asia and China. These relations have evolved from deep mistrust to the continually growing Chinese presence primarily in the region’s economy but also increasingly in its politics. Central Asia is playing a growing role in those areas of the economy which China sees as strategic (in particular in energy and communications). China’s ambitions and capabilities with regard to new areas and its geopolitical competitors are also being tested here. For the time being, it can be said that China has achieved vast success: its offer is appealing for the region, and Beijing has outpaced its Western rivals and has seriously challenged Russia’s position in the region. It remains, however, an open question whether China will be able to maintain and secure its present achievements and trends, which will be a serious challenge given the eternal instability in the region and Russia’s reintegration ambitions.

Russian gas industry - current condition and prospects; New regional 'in-security' system in Central Asia; Caspian oil and gas: the facts at the end of the year 2000. OSW Study 1/2001

Russian gas industry: The current condition of the gas industry is one of the most crucial factors influencing the Russian state·s functioning, internal situation and international position. Not only is gas the principal energy resource in Russia, it also subsidises other sectors of the economy. Status of the main European gas exporter strengthens also Russia's importance in the international arena. New regional in-security: Ten years have passed since the Central Asian states declared their independence, but their relationship with Russia still remains close, and the latter treats them as its exclusive zone of influence. A crucial reason for keeping Central Asia within the orbit of Moscow·s influence is the fact that Russia exercises control over the most important transport routes out of the region of raw materials for the power industry, on which the economic development of Asia depends on. But this is the only manifestation of Central Asia·s economic dependence on Russia. Moscow lacks solid economic instruments (i.e. investment input or power industry dependence) to shape the situation in the region. Caspian oil and gas: Caspian stocks of energy resources are not, and most probably will not be, of any great significance on the world scale. Nevertheless it is the Caspian region which will have the opportunity to become an oil exporter which will reduce the dependence of the European countries on Arabian oil, and which will guarantee Russia the quantities of gas which are indispensable both for meeting its internal demands and for maintaining its current level of export. For Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the confirmation of the existence of successive oil strata is not only an opportunity to increase income, but also an additional bargaining chip in the game for the future of the whole region. The stake in this game is the opportunity to limit the economic, and by extension the political influences of Russia in the region.

Kazakhstan: the regional success story; Tajikistan: a trial period; Uzbekistan: the major source of instability in Central Asia? OSW Study 15/2004

Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan can boast economic development like no other country in Central Asia. In contrast to other countries of the region, which have rich natural resources, Kazakhstan has managed to use its economic potential in a way that yields concrete benefits now and, at the same time, creates prospects for further sustainable economic growth. Tajikistan: Tajikistan in its present state has been built on the civil war experiences and provisions of the peace accords signed in 1997. These have had a great impact on the present form of the state, its political scene and power mechanisms. President Emomali Rakhmonov is the central figure in the state. The political system, which he has cocreated, is based on - unique in this region - political pluralism (the existence of the Islamic party), decentralisation (far-going independence of the regions and relatively limited potential of the central structures) and compromise as the basic way of resolving conflicts. Such a system has so far guaranteed stabilisation and normalisation of the country. Uzbekistan: With its geographic location, potential, ambitions and political priorities, Uzbekistan could play a leading role in Central Asia. The international community has perceived the country as the pillar of stability in the region. This perception was further reinforced after 11th September 2001 and was certainly among the factors that inspired the United States to start closer political and military cooperation with Tashkent. The administration in Washington had expected that closer contacts might galvanise political, economic and social change in Uzbekistan, thus reinforcing positive trends in other countries of the region as well. But the relations between Washington and Tashkent are in crisis (which the United States will certainly try to overcome), and we have seen rapprochement between Uzbekistan and Russia and China.

Involving Central Asia in Afghanistan’s future – what can Europe do? EUCAM Policy Brief No. 20, August 2011

The EU argues in its Central Asia policy that it wants to take greater account of Afghanistan. But what does this mean in practice? There is a case for engaging the Central Asian states beyond agreements over supply and material transport routes to Afghanistan. Central Asian states themselves have the most to gain from a stabilised Afghanistan. Cultural ties and the increasing economic linkages between Central Asia and Afghanistan need to be taken into consideration so that Central Asian states can be assisted in playing a positive role in Afghanistan together with Western actors.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

The capitals of the globe : the political, commercial, artistic and sacred capitals of Europe, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and the West Indies with graphic and accurate descriptions of all their wonders, shrines, traditions, sensations and treasures ; their political and commercial importance ; their religious, artistic and climatic attractions ; their geographical positions, physical features, history, population, industries, trade, traffic, currency, communications and hotels : the manners and customs of the inhabitants-types and costumes together with every information how to reach them, how to travel, and what it costs : superbly and profusely illustrated with engravings and color maps /

pt. 1. The capitals of Europe -- pt. 2. The capitals of Asia -- pt. 3. The capitals of Africa -- pt. 4. The capitals of North America -- pt. 5. The capitals of Central America, South America and the West Indes.

Glacial geomorphology of the Altai and Western Sayan Mountains, Central Asia

In this article, we present a map of the glacial geomorphology of the Altai andWestern Sayan Mountains, covering an area of almost 600,000 km2. Although numerous studies provide evidence for restricted Pleistocene glaciations in this area, others have hypothesized the past existence of an extensive ice sheet. To provide a framework for accurate glacial reconstructions of the Altai and Western Sayan Mountains, we present a map at a scale of 1:1,000,000 based on a mapping from 30 m resolution ASTER DEM and 15 m/30 mresolution Landsat ETM+ satellite imagery. Four landform classes have been mapped: marginal moraines, glacial lineations, hummocky terrain, and glacial valleys. Our mapping reveals an abundance of glacial erosional and depositional landforms. The distribution of these glacial landforms indicates that the Altai and Western Sayan Mountains have experienced predominantly alpine-style glaciations, with some small ice caps centred on the higher mountain peaks. Large marginal moraine complexes mark glacial advances in intermontane basins. By tracing the outer limits of present-day glaciers, glacial valleys, and moraines, we estimate that the past glacier coverage have totalled to 65,000 km2 (10.9% of the mapped area), whereas present-day glacier coverage totals only 1300 km2 (0.2% of the mapped area). This demonstrates the usefulness of remote sensing techniques for mapping the glacial geomorphology in remote mountain areas and for quantifying the past glacier dimensions. The glacial geomorphological map presented here will be used for further detailed reconstructions of the paleoglaciology and paleoclimate of the region.