The J-curve in HIV: low and moderate alcohol intake predicts mortality but not the occurrence of major cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES In HIV-negative populations light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than alcohol abstention. Whether the same holds true for HIV-infected individuals has not been evaluated in detail. DESIGN Cohort study METHODS:: Adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with follow-up after August 2005 were included. We categorized alcohol consumption into: abstention, low (1-9 g/d), moderate (10-29 g/d in females and 10-39g/d in men) and high alcohol intake. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease free survival (combined endpoint) as well as cardiovascular disease events (CADE) and overall survival. Baseline and time-updated risk factors for CADE were included in the models. RESULTS Among 9,741 individuals included, there were 788 events of major CADE or death during 46,719 years of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence of 1.69 events/100 person-years. Follow-up according to alcohol consumption level was 51% abstention, 20% low, 23% moderate and 6% high intake. As compared to abstention, low (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (0.78, 0.64-0.95) were associated with a lower incidence of the combined endpoint. There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and CADE. CONCLUSIONS Compared to abstention, low and moderate alcohol intake were associated with a better CADE-free survival. However, this result was mainly driven by mortality and the specific impact of drinking patterns and type of alcoholic beverage on this outcome remains to be determined.

Virtopsy: postmortem minimally invasive angiography using cross section techniques--implementation and preliminary results.

Postmortem investigation is increasingly supported by Computed Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI). This led to the idea to implement a noninvasive or minimally invasive autopsy technique. Therefore, a minimally invasive angiography technique becomes necessary, in order to support the vascular cross section diagnostic. Preliminary experiments investigating different contrast agents for CT and MRI and their postmortem applicability have been performed using an ex-vivo porcine coronary model. MSCT and MRI angiography was performed in the porcine model. Three human corpses were investigated using minimally invasive MSCT angiography. Via the right femoral artery a plastic tube was advanced into the aortic arch. Using a flow adjustable pump the radiopaque contrast agent meglumine-ioxithalamate was injected. Subsequent MSCT scanning provided an excellent anatomic visualization of the human arterial system including intracranial and coronary arteries. Vascular pathologies such as calcification, stenosis and injury were detected. Limitations of the introduced approach are cases of major vessel injury and cases that show an advanced stage of decay.

Effect of Health Risk Assessment and Counselling on Health Behaviour and Survival in Older People: A Pragmatic Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.

Transcarotid aortic valve-in-valve implantation for degenerated stentless aortic root conduits with severe regurgitation: a case series

OBJECTIVES Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is routinely performed via the transfemoral and the transapical route. Subclavian and direct aortic access are described alternatives for TAVI. Recently, the transcarotid approach has been shown to be feasible among patients with limited vascular access and severe native aortic valve stenosis. We aim to investigate the feasibility of transcatheter aortic valve-in-valve implantation via the transcarotid access in patients with severe aortic regurgitation due to degenerated stentless Shelhigh conduits using the 29 mm Medtronic CoreValve bioprosthesis. METHODS Three patients with complex vascular anatomy undergoing transcatheter valve-in-valve implantation via the transcarotid route were enrolled in the study. The procedure was performed under general anaesthesia using surgical cut-down to facilitate vascular access. Immediate procedural results as well as echocardiographic and clinical outcomes after 30 days and 6 months of the follow-up were recorded and analysed. RESULTS All three patients underwent unproblematic TAVI and experienced dramatic improvement of symptoms. Mean transvalvular gradient was 3, 6 and 11 mmHg, respectively. Effective orifice area ranged between 1.7 and 2.2 cm(2). Only mild paravalvular regurgitation was detected by echocardiography after 30 days of the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS The transcarotid approach can be safely performed for valve-in-valve procedures using the Medtronic CoreValve in patients with limited vascular access. It enables accurate positioning and implantation of the prosthesis.

Prophylactic antibiotics or G(M)-CSF for the prevention of infections and improvement of survival in cancer patients receiving myelotoxic chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND Febrile neutropenia (FN) and other infectious complications are some of the most serious treatment-related toxicities of chemotherapy for cancer, with a mortality rate of 2% to 21%. The two main types of prophylactic regimens are granulocyte (macrophage) colony-stimulating factors (G(M)-CSF) and antibiotics, frequently quinolones or cotrimoxazole. Current guidelines recommend the use of colony-stimulating factors when the risk of febrile neutropenia is above 20%, but they do not mention the use of antibiotics. However, both regimens have been shown to reduce the incidence of infections. Since no systematic review has compared the two regimens, a systematic review was undertaken. OBJECTIVES To compare the efficacy and safety of G(M)-CSF compared to antibiotics in cancer patients receiving myelotoxic chemotherapy. SEARCH METHODS We searched The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, databases of ongoing trials, and conference proceedings of the American Society of Clinical Oncology and the American Society of Hematology (1980 to December 2015). We planned to include both full-text and abstract publications. Two review authors independently screened search results. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing prophylaxis with G(M)-CSF versus antibiotics for the prevention of infection in cancer patients of all ages receiving chemotherapy. All study arms had to receive identical chemotherapy regimes and other supportive care. We included full-text, abstracts, and unpublished data if sufficient information on study design, participant characteristics, interventions and outcomes was available. We excluded cross-over trials, quasi-randomised trials and post-hoc retrospective trials. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently screened the results of the search strategies, extracted data, assessed risk of bias, and analysed data according to standard Cochrane methods. We did final interpretation together with an experienced clinician. MAIN RESULTS In this updated review, we included no new randomised controlled trials. We included two trials in the review, one with 40 breast cancer patients receiving high-dose chemotherapy and G-CSF compared to antibiotics, a second one evaluating 155 patients with small-cell lung cancer receiving GM-CSF or antibiotics.We judge the overall risk of bias as high in the G-CSF trial, as neither patients nor physicians were blinded and not all included patients were analysed as randomised (7 out of 40 patients). We considered the overall risk of bias in the GM-CSF to be moderate, because of the risk of performance bias (neither patients nor personnel were blinded), but low risk of selection and attrition bias.For the trial comparing G-CSF to antibiotics, all cause mortality was not reported. There was no evidence of a difference for infection-related mortality, with zero events in each arm. Microbiologically or clinically documented infections, severe infections, quality of life, and adverse events were not reported. There was no evidence of a difference in frequency of febrile neutropenia (risk ratio (RR) 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 to 2.84). The quality of the evidence for the two reported outcomes, infection-related mortality and frequency of febrile neutropenia, was very low, due to the low number of patients evaluated (high imprecision) and the high risk of bias.There was no evidence of a difference in terms of median survival time in the trial comparing GM-CSF and antibiotics. Two-year survival times were 6% (0 to 12%) in both arms (high imprecision, low quality of evidence). There were four toxic deaths in the GM-CSF arm and three in the antibiotics arm (3.8%), without evidence of a difference (RR 1.32; 95% CI 0.30 to 5.69; P = 0.71; low quality of evidence). There were 28% grade III or IV infections in the GM-CSF arm and 18% in the antibiotics arm, without any evidence of a difference (RR 1.55; 95% CI 0.86 to 2.80; P = 0.15, low quality of evidence). There were 5 episodes out of 360 cycles of grade IV infections in the GM-CSF arm and 3 episodes out of 334 cycles in the cotrimoxazole arm (0.8%), with no evidence of a difference (RR 1.55; 95% CI 0.37 to 6.42; P = 0.55; low quality of evidence). There was no significant difference between the two arms for non-haematological toxicities like diarrhoea, stomatitis, infections, neurologic, respiratory, or cardiac adverse events. Grade III and IV thrombopenia occurred significantly more frequently in the GM-CSF arm (60.8%) compared to the antibiotics arm (28.9%); (RR 2.10; 95% CI 1.41 to 3.12; P = 0.0002; low quality of evidence). Neither infection-related mortality, incidence of febrile neutropenia, nor quality of life were reported in this trial. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS As we only found two small trials with 195 patients altogether, no conclusion for clinical practice is possible. More trials are necessary to assess the benefits and harms of G(M)-CSF compared to antibiotics for infection prevention in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

Very long-term survival patterns of young patients treated with radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE In patients with a long life expectancy with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa), the chance to die from PCa is not negligible and may change significantly according to the time elapsed from surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term survival patterns in young patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) for HRPCa. MATERIALS AND METHODS Within a multiinstitutional cohort, 600 young patients (≤59 years) treated with RP between 1987 and 2012 for HRPCa (defined as at least one of the following adverse characteristics: prostate specific antigen>20, cT3 or higher, biopsy Gleason sum 8-10) were identified. Smoothed cumulative incidence plot was performed to assess cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause mortality (OCM) rates at 10, 15, and 20 years after RP. The same analyses were performed to assess the 5-year probability of CSM and OCM in patients who survived 5, 10, and 15 years after RP. A multivariable competing risk regression model was fitted to identify predictors of CSM and OCM. RESULTS The 10-, 15- and 20-year CSM and OCM rates were 11.6% and 5.5% vs. 15.5% and 13.5% vs. 18.4% and 19.3%, respectively. The 5-year probability of CSM and OCM rates among patients who survived at 5, 10, and 15 years after RP, were 6.4% and 2.7% vs. 4.6% and 9.6% vs. 4.2% and 8.2%, respectively. Year of surgery, pathological stage and Gleason score, surgical margin status and lymph node invasion were the major determinants of CSM (all P≤0.03). Conversely, none of the covariates was significantly associated with OCM (all P≥ 0.09). CONCLUSIONS Very long-term cancer control in young high-risk patients after RP is highly satisfactory. The probability of dying from PCa in young patients is the leading cause of death during the first 10 years of survivorship after RP. Thereafter, mortality not related to PCa became the main cause of death. Consequently, surgery should be consider among young patients with high-risk disease and strict PCa follow-up should enforce during the first 10 years of survivorship after RP.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

There is a place for radical cystectomy and urinary diversion, including orthotopic bladder substitution, in patients aged 75 and older: Results of a retrospective observational analysis from a high-volume center

INTRODUCTION The incidence of cancer increases with age and owing to the changing demographics we are increasingly confronted with treating bladder cancer in old patients. We report our results in patients>75 years of age who underwent open radical cystectomy (RC) and urinary diversion. MATERIAL AND METHODS From January 2000 to March 2013, a consecutive series of 224 old patients with complete follow-up who underwent RC and urinary diversion (ileal orthotopic bladder substitute [OBS], ileal conduit [IC], and ureterocutaneostomy [UCST]) were included in this retrospective single-center study. End points were the 90-day complication rates (Clavien-Dindo classification), 90-day mortality rates, overall and cancer-specific survival rates, and continence rates (OBS). RESULTS Median age was 79.2 years (range: 75.1-91.6); 35 of the 224 patients (17%) received an OBS, 178 of the 224 patients (78%) an IC, and 11 of the 224 patients (5%) an UCST. The 90-day complication rate was 54.3% in the OBS (major: Clavien grade 3-5: 22.9%, minor: Clavien Grade 1-2: 31.4%), 56.7% in the IC (major: 27%, minor: 29.8%), and 63.6% in the UCST group (major: 36.4%, minor: 27.3%); P = 0.001. The 90-day mortality was 0% in the OBS group, 13% in the IC group, and 10% in the UCST group (P = 0.077). The Glasgow prognostic score was an independent predictor of all survival parameters assessed, including 90-day mortality. Median follow-up was 22 months. Overall and cancer-specific survivals were 90 and 98, 47 and 91, and 11 and 12 months for OBS, IC, and UCST, respectively. In OBS patients, daytime continence was considered as dry in 66% and humid in 20% of patients. Nighttime continence was dry in 46% and humid 26% of patients. CONCLUSION With careful patient selection, oncological and functional outcome after RC can be good in old patients. Old age as the sole criterion should not preclude the indication for RC or the option of OBS. In old patients undergoing OBS, satisfactory continence results can be achieved.

Impact of weight loss on survival after chemoradiation for locally advanced head and neck cancer: secondary results of a randomized phase III trial (SAKK 10/94).

BACKGROUND To analyze the impact of weight loss before and during chemoradiation on survival outcomes in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer. METHODS From 07/1994-07/2000 a total of 224 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck were randomized to either hyperfractionated radiation therapy alone or the same radiation therapy combined with two cycles of concomitant cisplatin. The primary endpoint was time to any treatment failure (TTF); secondary endpoints were locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS). Patient weight was measured 6 months before treatment, at treatment start and treatment end. RESULTS The proportion of patients with >5% weight loss was 32% before, and 51% during treatment, and the proportion of patients with >10% weight loss was 12% before, and 17% during treatment. After a median follow-up of 9.5 years (range, 0.1 - 15.4 years) weight loss before treatment was associated with decreased TTF, LRRFS, DMFS, cancer specific survival and OS in a multivariable analysis. However, weight loss during treatment was not associated with survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Weight loss before and during chemoradiation was commonly observed. Weight loss before but not during treatment was associated with worse survival.

European multicentre experience with the sutureless Perceval valve: clinical and haemodynamic outcomes up to 5 years in over 700 patients†.

OBJECTIVES This report summarizes the 5-year clinical and haemodynamic data from three prospective, European multicentre trials with the Perceval sutureless aortic valve. METHODS From April 2007 to August 2012, 731 consecutive patients (mean age: 78.5 years; 68.1% females; mean logistic EuroSCORE 10.9%) underwent AVR with the Perceval valve in 25 European centres. Isolated AVR was performed in 498 (68.1%) patients. A minimally invasive approach was performed in 189 (25.9%) cases. The cumulative follow-up was 729 patients-years. RESULTS In isolated AVR, mean cross-clamp and cardiopulmonary bypass times were 30.8 and 50.8 min in full sternotomy, and 37.6 and 64.4 min in the minimally invasive approach, respectively. Early cardiac-related deaths occurred in 1.9%. Overall survival rates at 1 and 5 years were 92.1 and 74.7%, respectively. Major paravalvular leak occurred in 1.4% and 1% at early and late follow-up, respectively. Significant improvement in clinical status was observed postoperatively in the majority of patients. Mean and peak gradients decreased from 42.9 and 74.0 mmHg preoperatively, to 7.8 and 16 mmHg at the 3-year follow-up. LV mass decreased from 254.5 to 177.4 g at 3 years. CONCLUSIONS This European multicentre experience, with the largest cohort of patients with sutureless valves to date, shows excellent clinical and haemodynamic results that remain stable even up to the 5-year follow-up. Even in this elderly patient cohort with 40% octogenarians, both early and late mortality rates were very low. There were no valve migrations, structural valve degeneration or valve thrombosis in the follow-up. The sutureless technique is a promising alternative to biological aortic valve replacement.

Single-center experience in the management of spontaneous isolated abdominal aortic dissection

OBJECTIVE This study aims to report the management of patients with spontaneous isolated dissection of the abdominal aorta (sIAAD). METHODS A cohort of 18 consecutive patients (12 male, mean age 58 years) with sIAAD was treated between 1990 and 2009. Dissection was asymptomatic in ten and symptomatic in eight patients. Retrospective data analysis from patient charts was performed. Follow-up included clinical examination, ultrasound, and/or CT-angiography. Mean follow-up was 54 months (range 1-211). RESULTS In total, eight out of 18 received invasive treatment. All asymptomatic patients initially underwent conservative treatment and surveillance. Spontaneous false lumen thrombosis occurred in four (40 %), and three patients showed relevant aneurysmatic progression and underwent elective invasive treatment (open n = 2, endovascular n = 1), representing a crossover rate of 30 %. Late mortality was 20 % (n = 2) in this group. In symptomatic patients, five underwent urgent treatment due to persistent abdominal or back pain (n = 4) or contained rupture (n = 1); one was treated for claudication. The remaining two patients presented with irreversible spinal cord ischemia and were treated conservatively. Three patients were treated by open surgery and three by endovascular interventions (two stentgrafts, one Palmaz XXL stent). Early and late morbidity and mortality was 0 % in this group. There were no reinterventions CONCLUSION: The majority of patients with sIADD require invasive treatment, with EVAR being the preferable treatment option today. In asymptomatic IADD, primary surveillance is justifiable, but close surveillance due to expansion is necessary.

Hypermagnesemia is a strong independent risk factor for mortality in critically ill patients: results from a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND Patients with electrolyte imbalances or disorders have a high risk of mortality. It is unknown if this finding from sodium or potassium disorders extends to alterations of magnesium levels. METHODS AND PATIENTS In this cross-sectional analysis, all emergency room patients between 2010 and 2011 at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland, were included. A multivariable logistic regression model was performed to assess the association between magnesium levels and in-hospital mortality up to 28days. RESULTS A total of 22,239 subjects were screened for the study. A total of 5339 patients had plasma magnesium concentrations measured at hospital admission and were included into the analysis. A total of 6.3% of the 352 patients with hypomagnesemia and 36.9% of the 151 patients with hypermagnesemia died. In a multivariate Cox regression model hypermagnesemia (HR 11.6, p<0.001) was a strong independent risk factor for mortality. In these patients diuretic therapy revealed to be protective (HR 0.5, p=0.007). Hypomagnesemia was not associated with mortality (p>0.05). Age was an independent risk factor for mortality (both p<0.001). CONCLUSION The study does demonstrate a possible association between hypermagnesemia measured upon admission in the emergency department, and early in-hospital mortality.

Hyperphosphatemia Is an Independent Risk Factor for Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: Results from a Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND Phosphate imbalances or disorders have a high risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease. It is unknown if this finding extends to mortality in patients presenting at an emergency room with or without normal kidney function. METHODS AND PATIENTS This cross sectional analysis included all emergency room patients between 2010 and 2011 at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland. A multivariable cox regression model was applied to assess the association between phosphate levels and in-hospital mortality up to 28 days. RESULTS 22,239 subjects were screened for the study. Plasma phosphate concentrations were measured in 2,390 patients on hospital admission and were included in the analysis. 3.5% of the 480 patients with hypophosphatemia and 10.7% of the 215 patients with hyperphosphatemia died. In univariate analysis, phosphate levels were associated with mortality, age, diuretic therapy and kidney function (all p<0.001). In a multivariate Cox regression model, hyperphosphatemia (OR 3.29, p<0.001) was a strong independent risk factor for mortality. Hypophosphatemia was not associated with mortality (p>0.05). CONCLUSION Hyperphosphatemia is associated with 28-day in-hospital mortality in an unselected cohort of patients presenting in an emergency room.

External validation of the Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model for predicting death within 1 year after hospital admission

BACKGROUND Predicting long-term survival after admission to hospital is helpful for clinical, administrative and research purposes. The Hospital-patient One-year Mortality Risk (HOMR) model was derived and internally validated to predict the risk of death within 1 year after admission. We conducted an external validation of the model in a large multicentre study. METHODS We used administrative data for all nonpsychiatric admissions of adult patients to hospitals in the provinces of Ontario (2003-2010) and Alberta (2011-2012), and to the Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston (2010-2012) to calculate each patient's HOMR score at admission. The HOMR score is based on a set of parameters that captures patient demographics, health burden and severity of acute illness. We determined patient status (alive or dead) 1 year after admission using population-based registries. RESULTS The 3 validation cohorts (n = 2,862,996 in Ontario, 210 595 in Alberta and 66,683 in Boston) were distinct from each other and from the derivation cohort. The overall risk of death within 1 year after admission was 8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7% to 8.8%). The HOMR score was strongly and significantly associated with risk of death in all populations and was highly discriminative, with a C statistic ranging from 0.89 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.91) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.91 to 0.92). Observed and expected outcome risks were similar (median absolute difference in percent dying in 1 yr 0.3%, interquartile range 0.05%-2.5%). INTERPRETATION The HOMR score, calculated using routinely collected administrative data, accurately predicted the risk of death among adult patients within 1 year after admission to hospital for nonpsychiatric indications. Similar performance was seen when the score was used in geographically and temporally diverse populations. The HOMR model can be used for risk adjustment in analyses of health administrative data to predict long-term survival among hospital patients.