Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition

Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera

First genome size estimations for some eudicot families and genera.- Genome size diversity in angiosperms varies roughly 2400-fold, although approximately 45% of angiosperm families lack a single genome size estimation, and therefore, this range could be enlarged. To contribute completing family and genera representation, DNA C-Values are here provided for 19 species from 16 eudicot families, including first values for 6 families, 14 genera and 17 species. The sample of species studied is very diverse, including herbs, weeds, vines, shrubs and trees. Data are discussed regarding previous genome size estimates of closely related species or genera, if any, their chromosome number, growth form or invasive behaviour. The present research contributes approximately 1.5% new values for previously unreported angiosperm families, being the current coverage around 55% of angiosperm families, according to the Plant DNA C-Values Database.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Variation in the proportion of flower visitors of Arum maculatum along its distributional range in relation with community‐based climatic niche analyses

Here, we investigate the geographical constancy in the specificity level of the specialized lure-and-trap pollination antagonism involving the widespread European Arum maculatum and its associated Psychodid pollinators. Until now, studies concurred in demonstrating that one single insect species, Psychoda phalaenoides, efficiently cross-pollinated plants; researches were, however, performed locally in western Europe. In this study we characterize for the first time the flower visitors' composition at the scale of the distribution range of A. maculatum by intensively collecting plants and insects throughout the European continent. We further correlate local climatic characteristics with the community composition of visiting arthropods.Our results show that flowers are generally visited by P. phalaenoides females, but not over the whole distribution range of the plant. In some regions this fly species is less frequent or even absent and another species, Psycha grisescens, becomes the prevailing visitor. This variability is geographically structured and can be explained by climatic factors: the proportion of P. grisescens increases with higher annual precipitations and lower precipitations in the warmest trimester, two characteristics typical of the Mediterranean zone. Climate thus seems driving the specificity of this interaction, by potentially affecting the phenology of one or both interacting species, or even of volatile and heat production in the plant. This result therefore challenges the specificity of other presumably one-to-one interactions covering wide distribution ranges, and provides an example of the direct effect that the abiotic environment can have on the fate of plant-insect interactions.

Estimation du degré de couverture d'un registre pour les cancers notifiés au décès [Evaluation of the comprehensiveness of a cancer register from death certificates].

The comparison of cancer prevalence with cancer mortality can lead under some hypotheses to an estimate of registration rate. A method is proposed, where the cases with cancer as a cause of death are divided into 3 categories: (1) cases already known by the registry (2) unknown cases having occured before the registry creation date (3) unknown cases occuring during the registry operates. The estimate is then the number of cases in the first category divided by the total of those in categories 1 and 3 (these only are to be registered). An application is performed on the data of the Canton de Vaud. Survival rates of the Norvegian Cancer Registry are used for computing the number of unknown cases to be included in second and third category, respectively. The discussion focusses on the possible determinants of the obtained comprehensiveness rates for various cancer sites.

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Limitations and information needs for engineered nanomaterial-specific exposure estimation and scenarios: recommendations for improved reporting practices

The aim of this paper is to describe the process and challenges in building exposure scenarios for engineered nanomaterials (ENM), using an exposure scenario format similar to that used for the European Chemicals regulation (REACH). Over 60 exposure scenarios were developed based on information from publicly available sources (literature, books, and reports), publicly available exposure estimation models, occupational sampling campaign data from partnering institutions, and industrial partners regarding their own facilities. The primary focus was on carbon-based nanomaterials, nano-silver (nano-Ag) and nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2), and included occupational and consumer uses of these materials with consideration of the associated environmental release. The process of building exposure scenarios illustrated the availability and limitations of existing information and exposure assessment tools for characterizing exposure to ENM, particularly as it relates to risk assessment. This article describes the gaps in the information reviewed, recommends future areas of ENM exposure research, and proposes types of information that should, at a minimum, be included when reporting the results of such research, so that the information is useful in a wider context.

Optimization of Snow Drifting Mitigation and Control Methods for Iowa Conditions Part II, TR-626, 2015

Blowing and drifting of snow is a major concern for transportation efficiency and road safety in regions where their development is common. One common way to mitigate snow drift on roadways is to install plastic snow fences. Correct design of snow fences is critical for road safety and maintaining the roads open during winter in the US Midwest and other states affected by large snow events during the winter season and to maintain costs related to accumulation of snow on the roads and repair of roads to minimum levels. Of critical importance for road safety is the protection against snow drifting in regions with narrow rights of way, where standard fences cannot be deployed at the recommended distance from the road. Designing snow fences requires sound engineering judgment and a thorough evaluation of the potential for snow blowing and drifting at the construction site. The evaluation includes site-specific design parameters typically obtained with semi-empirical relations characterizing the local transport conditions. Among the critical parameters involved in fence design and assessment of their post-construction efficiency is the quantification of the snow accumulation at fence sites. The present study proposes a joint experimental and numerical approach to monitor snow deposits around snow fences, quantitatively estimate snow deposits in the field, asses the efficiency and improve the design of snow fences. Snow deposit profiles were mapped using GPS based real-time kinematic surveys (RTK) conducted at the monitored field site during and after snow storms. The monitored site allowed testing different snow fence designs under close to identical conditions over four winter seasons. The study also discusses the detailed monitoring system and analysis of weather forecast and meteorological conditions at the monitored sites. A main goal of the present study was to assess the performance of lightweight plastic snow fences with a lower porosity than the typical 50% porosity used in standard designs of such fences. The field data collected during the first winter was used to identify the best design for snow fences with a porosity of 50%. Flow fields obtained from numerical simulations showed that the fence design that worked the best during the first winter induced the formation of an elongated area of small velocity magnitude close to the ground. This information was used to identify other candidates for optimum design of fences with a lower porosity. Two of the designs with a fence porosity of 30% that were found to perform well based on results of numerical simulations were tested in the field during the second winter along with the best performing design for fences with a porosity of 50%. Field data showed that the length of the snow deposit away from the fence was reduced by about 30% for the two proposed lower-porosity (30%) fence designs compared to the best design identified for fences with a porosity of 50%. Moreover, one of the lower-porosity designs tested in the field showed no significant snow deposition within the bottom gap region beneath the fence. Thus, a major outcome of this study is to recommend using plastic snow fences with a porosity of 30%. It is expected that this lower-porosity design will continue to work well for even more severe snow events or for successive snow events occurring during the same winter. The approach advocated in the present study allowed making general recommendations for optimizing the design of lower-porosity plastic snow fences. This approach can be extended to improve the design of other types of snow fences. Some preliminary work for living snow fences is also discussed. Another major contribution of this study is to propose, develop protocols and test a novel technique based on close range photogrammetry (CRP) to quantify the snow deposits trapped snow fences. As image data can be acquired continuously, the time evolution of the volume of snow retained by a snow fence during a storm or during a whole winter season can, in principle, be obtained. Moreover, CRP is a non-intrusive method that eliminates the need to perform man-made measurements during the storms, which are difficult and sometimes dangerous to perform. Presently, there is lots of empiricism in the design of snow fences due to lack of data on fence storage capacity on how snow deposits change with the fence design and snow storm characteristics and in the estimation of the main parameters used by the state DOTs to design snow fences at a given site. The availability of such information from CRP measurements should provide critical data for the evaluation of the performance of a certain snow fence design that is tested by the IDOT. As part of the present study, the novel CRP method is tested at several sites. The present study also discusses some attempts and preliminary work to determine the snow relocation coefficient which is one of the main variables that has to be estimated by IDOT engineers when using the standard snow fence design software (Snow Drift Profiler, Tabler, 2006). Our analysis showed that standard empirical formulas did not produce reasonable values when applied at the Iowa test sites monitored as part of the present study and that simple methods to estimate this variable are not reliable. The present study makes recommendations for the development of a new methodology based on Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry that can directly measure the snow drift fluxes and the amount of snow relocated by the fence.

Reciprocal Translocations in Cattle: frequency estimation

Chromosomal anomalies, like Robertsonian and reciprocal translocations represent a big problem in cattle breeding as their presence induces, in the carrier subjects, a well documented fertility reduction. In cattle reciprocal translocations (RCPs, a chromosome abnormality caused by an exchange of material between nonhomologous chromosomes) are considered rare as to date only 19 reciprocal translocations have been described. In cattle it is common knowledge that the Robertsonian translocations represent the most common cytogenetic anomalies, and this is probably due to the existence of the endemic 1;29 Robertsonian translocation. However, these considerations are based on data obtained using techniques that are unable to identify all reciprocal translocations and thus their frequency is clearly underestimated. The purpose of this work is to provide a first realistic estimate of the impact of RCPs in the cattle population studied, trying to eliminate the factors which have caused an underestimation of their frequency so far. We performed this work using a mathematical as well as a simulation approach and, as biological data, we considered the cytogenetic results obtained in the last 15 years. The results obtained show that only 16% of reciprocal translocations can be detected using simple Giemsa techniques and consequently they could be present in no less than 0,14% of cattle subjects, a frequency five times higher than that shown by de novo Robertsonian translocations. This data is useful to open a debate about the need to introduce a more efficient method to identify RCP in cattle.

Estimation of a maximum Lu diffusion rate in a natural eclogite garnet

Lutetium zoning in garnet within eclogites from the Zermatt-Saas Fee zone, Western Alps, reveal sharp, exponentially decreasing central peaks. They can be used to constrain maximum Lu volume diffusion in garnets. A prograde garnet growth temperature interval of 450-600 A degrees C has been estimated based on pseudosection calculations and garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry. The maximum pre-exponential diffusion coefficient which fits the measured central peak is in the order of D-0= 5.7*10(-6) m(2)/s, taking an estimated activation energy of 270 kJ/mol based on diffusion experiments for other rare earth elements in garnet. This corresponds to a maximum diffusion rate of D (600 A degrees C) = 4.0*10(-22) m(2)/s. The diffusion estimate of Lu can be used to estimate the minimum closure temperature, T-c, for Sm-Nd and Lu-Hf age data that have been obtained in eclogites of the Western Alps, postulating, based on a literature review, that D (Hf) < D (Nd) < D (Sm) a parts per thousand currency sign D (Lu). T-c calculations, using the Dodson equation, yielded minimum closure temperatures of about 630 A degrees C, assuming a rapid initial exhumation rate of 50A degrees/m.y., and an average crystal size of garnets (r = 1 mm). This suggests that Sm/Nd and Lu/Hf isochron age differences in eclogites from the Western Alps, where peak temperatures did rarely exceed 600 A degrees C must be interpreted in terms of prograde metamorphism.

Muscle moment-arms: a key element in muscle-force estimation.

A clear and rigorous definition of muscle moment-arms in the context of musculoskeletal systems modelling is presented, using classical mechanics and screw theory. The definition provides an alternative to the tendon excursion method, which can lead to incorrect moment-arms if used inappropriately due to its dependency on the choice of joint coordinates. The definition of moment-arms, and the presented construction method, apply to musculoskeletal models in which the bones are modelled as rigid bodies, the joints are modelled as ideal mechanical joints and the muscles are modelled as massless, frictionless cables wrapping over the bony protrusions, approximated using geometric surfaces. In this context, the definition is independent of any coordinate choice. It is then used to solve a muscle-force estimation problem for a simple 2D conceptual model and compared with an incorrect application of the tendon excursion method. The relative errors between the two solutions vary between 0% and 100%.

Highway Work Zone Capacity Estimation Using Field Data from Kansas, TPF-5(081), 2015

Although extensive research has been conducted on urban freeway capacity estimation methods, minimal research has been carried out for rural highway sections, especially sections within work zones. This study attempted to fill that void for rural highways in Kansas, by estimating capacity of rural highway work zones in Kansas. Six work zone locations were selected for data collection and further analysis. An average of six days’ worth of field data was collected, from mid-October 2013 to late November 2013, at each of these work zone sites. Two capacity estimation methods were utilized, including the Maximum Observed 15-minute Flow Rate Method and the Platooning Method divided into 15-minute intervals. The Maximum Observed 15-minute Flow Rate Method provided an average capacity of 1469 passenger cars per hour per lane (pcphpl) with a standard deviation of 141 pcphpl, while the Platooning Method provided a maximum average capacity of 1195 pcphpl and a standard deviation of 28 pcphpl. Based on observed data and analysis carried out in this study, the suggested maximum capacity can be considered as 1500 pcphpl when designing work zones for rural highways in Kansas. This proposed standard value of rural highway work zone capacity could be utilized by engineers and planners so that they can effectively mitigate congestion at or near work zones that would have otherwise occurred due to construction/maintenance.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: an application to Switzerland.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. METHODS: We looked at about 240,000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150,000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m(3). Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. RESULTS: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. CONCLUSIONS: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements.

Lee County, Township 67 North Range 7 West

Des Moines River Plat Maps.