Processes for identifying regional influences of and responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change : the MINK project /

"TR052A-H."

Food and nutrition security and the eradication of hunger CELAC 2025: Furthering discussion and regional cooperation

The region of Latin America and the Caribbean can boast a successful track record in the process of eradicating hunger: it is the only region in the world that has halved both the proportion of people who suffer from hunger (the target set in the Millennium Development Goals) and their absolute number (the target set at the World Food Summit of 1996). This publication aims to provide the region’s countries with up-todate and timely information on the status of food and nutrition security; on the role in eradicating hunger played by the different areas such as agriculture, agrifood trade and natural resources management; and on the possibility of successfully addressing the twin burden of malnutrition, in a context where the effects of climate change could threaten the progress achieved in Latin America and the Caribbean thus far. The CELAC Plan for Food and Nutrition Security and the Eradication of Hunger 2025 is a cross-cutting tool for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and it thus encourages the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean to redouble their efforts to identify key policy areas that will make it possible to speed up and consolidate the process of eradicating hunger and tackle the twin burden of malnutrition in the region, in which overweight and obesity are increasingly adding to that scourge.

El contratismo y su integración al modelo de agronegocios : Producción y servicios en la región pampeana

Si bien existen estudios sobre el desarrollo de los prestadores de servicios agropecuarios de labores culturales -"contratistas" en la jerga nativa-, a lo largo del siglo XX, el crecimiento exponencial de esta actividad y las vertiginosas dinámicas de innovación tecnológica para el agro en relación a este rubro, han abierto nuevos interrogantes respecto de las características productivas y las identidades construidas por estos sujetos. El objetivo de este trabajo es dar cuenta de las distintas estrategias desplegadas respecto a la compra-venta de servicios por parte de estos actores de la producción agrícola, así como también comprender cómo estas estrategias se relacionan con el modelo productivo predominante. El acercamiento que proponemos a continuación, es en base a un relevamiento cuantitativo de hogares de productores agropecuarios (provincias de Buenos Aires y de Santa Fe) y a entrevistas cualitativas sobre trayectorias de vida y empresariales. A partir de la construcción de estos datos analizamos las características de aquellos que implementaron la prestación de servicios agrícolas, en base a las dimensiones materiales e identitarias estudiadas

Escenarios productivos diversos en Mendoza : En la búsqueda de una fruticultura comercial (1900-1930)

La conformación de una economía regional diversificada en Mendoza encuentra antecedentes en las primeras décadas del siglo XX. En efecto, los sectores dirigentes, empresarios y técnicos buscaron alternativas con vistas a matizar los efectos de crisis cíclicas que afectaban a la vitivinicultura. De modo que este período tiene un marcado carácter transicional, en el que se verifica una complejización del panorama agroproductivo como resultado de la conjunción de diversos factores que son detectados y analizados en este trabajo

Genetic and economic analysis of a targeted marker-assisted wheat breeding strategy

The advent of molecular markers as a tool to aid selection has provided plant breeders with the opportunity to rapidly deliver superior genetic solutions to problems in agricultural production systems. However, a major constraint to the implementation of marker-assisted selection (MAS) in pragmatic breeding programs in the past has been the perceived high relative cost of MAS compared to conventional phenotypic selection. In this paper, computer simulation was used to design a genetically effective and economically efficient marker-assisted breeding strategy aimed at a specific outcome. Under investigation was a strategy involving the integration of both restricted backcrossing and doubled haploid (DH) technology. The point at which molecular markers are applied in a selection strategy can be critical to the effectiveness and cost efficiency of that strategy. The application of molecular markers was considered at three phases in the strategy: allele enrichment in the BC1F1 population, gene selection at the haploid stage and the selection for recurrent parent background of DHs prior to field testing. Overall, incorporating MAS at all three stages was the most effective, in terms of delivering a high frequency of desired outcomes and at combining the selected favourable rust resistance, end use quality and grain yield alleles. However, when costs were included in the model the combination of MAS at the BC1F1 and haploid stage was identified as the optimal strategy. A detailed economic analysis showed that incorporation of marker selection at these two stages not only increased genetic gain over the phenotypic alternative but actually reduced the over all cost by 40%.

Herbicides implicated as the cause of severe mangrove dieback in the Mackay region, NE Australia: consequences for marine plant habitats of the GBR World Heritage Area

Herbicides, particularly diuron, were correlated with severe and widespread dieback of the dominant mangrove, Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vieth. var. eucalyptifolia (Val.) N.C. Duke (Avicenniaceae), its reduced canopy condition, and declines in seedling health within three neighbouring estuaries in the Mackay region of NE Australia. This unusual species-specific dieback, first observed in the early 1990s, had gotten notably worse by 2002 to affect > 30km(2) of mangroves in at least five adjacent estuaries in the region. Over the past century, agricultural production has responded well to the demands of increasing population with improvements in farm efficiency assisted by significant increases in the use of agricultural chemicals. However, with regular and episodic river flow events, these chemicals have sometimes found their way into estuarine and nearshore water and sediments where their effects on marine habitats have been largely unquantified. Investigations over the last three years in the Mackay region provide compelling evidence of diuron, and possibly other agricultural herbicides, as the most likely cause of the severe and widespread mangrove dieback. The likely consequences of such dieback included declines in coastal water quality with increased turbidity, nutrients and sediment deposition, as well as further dispersal of the toxic chemicals. The implications of such findings are immense since they describe not only the serious deterioration of protected and beneficial mangrove habitat but also the potential for significant direct and indirect effects on other highly-valued estuarine and marine habitats in the region, including seagrass beds and coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. This article reviews all key findings and observations to date and describes the essential correlative and causative evidence. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard and flexible technology

(Magill, M., Quinzii, M., 2002. Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard. Journal of Mathematical Economics 38, 149-190) showed that, in a stockmarket economy with private information, the moral hazard problem may be resolved provided that a spanning overlap condition is satisfed. This result depends on the assumption that the technology is given by a stochastic production function with a single scalar input. The object of the present paper is to extend the analysis of Magill and Quinzii to the case of multiple inputs. We show that their main result extends to this general case if and only if, for each firm, the number of linearly independent combinations of securities having payoffs correlated with, but not dependent on, the firms output is equal to the number of degrees of freedom in the firm's production technology.

Why is economics not a complex systems science?

The article argues that economics will have to become a complex systems science before economists can comfortably incorporate institutionalist and evolutionary economics into mainstream theory. The article compares the complex adaptive system of John Foster with that of standard economic theory and illustrates the difference through an examination of familiar production function. The place of neoclassical, Keynesian economics in complex systems is considered. The article concludes that convincing, multiple models have been made possible by the increase in widely available computing power available.

Organic Matter Dynamics in the Wet Tropics Under Different Sugarcane Residue Management Regimes

Retention of sugarcane leaves and tops on the soil surface after harvesting has almost completely replaced pre- and post-harvest burning of crop residues in the Australian sugar industry. Since its introduction around 25 years ago, residue retention has increased soil organic matter to improve soil fertility as well as improve harvest flexibility and reduce erosion. However, in the wet tropics residue retention also poses potential problems of prolonged waterlogging, and late-season release of nitrogen which can reduce sugar content of the crop. The objective of this project is to examine the management of sugarcane residues in the wet tropics using a systems approach. Subsidiary objectives are (a) to improve understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils in the wet tropics, and (b) to identify ways to manage crop residues to retain their advantages and limit their disadvantages. Project objectives will be addressed using several approaches. Historic farm production data recorded by sugar mills in the wet tropics will be analysed to determine the effect of residue burning or retention on crop yield and sugar content. The impact of climate on soil processes will be highlighed by development of an index of nitrogen mineralisation using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Increased understanding of nitrogen cycling in Australian sugarcane soils and management of crop residues will be gained through a field experiment recently established in the Australian wet tropics. From this experiment the decomposition and nitrogen dynamics of residues placed on the soil surface and incorporated will be compared. The effect of differences in temperature, soil water content and pH will be further examined on these soils under glasshouse conditions. Preliminary results show a high ammonium to nitrate ratio in tropics soils, which may be due to low rates of nitrification that increase the retention of nitrogen in a form (ammonium) that is less subject to leaching. Further results will be presented at Congress.

Religião cristã e ciência moderna: uma análise comparativa dos discursos nas obras Os fundamentos, organizada por A. R. Torrey, e Religião e ciência de Bertrand Russell

Religião e ciência submetidas à Análise do Discurso Crítica. O fundamentalismo protestante a partir da obra Os fundamentos e a ciência moderna sob a perspectiva da obra de Bertrand Russell Religião e ciência, ambas as obras submetidas a uma análise crítica de seus discursos a partir da concepção faircloughiana para assim delinear seus textos, discursos, intenções e práticas sociais. O advento da modernidade, ao influenciar os diversos segmentos da sociedade e alterar a maneira de o indivíduo se relacionar com Deus, com a natureza e com seu semelhante, consequentemente, também alterou algumas percepções religiosas existentes até a Idade Média. A modernidade se destaca ao propiciar à humanidade outras possibilidades para lidar com seus problemas cotidianos e questões existenciais. Recorrer às técnicas científicas para solucionar problemas da natureza, melhorar a produção agrícola, curar doenças, ou até mesmo prever catástrofes naturais abriu precedente para que o homo religiosus ampliasse seus horizontes rumo ao moderno e questionasse a importância da vida religiosa como apresentada até então. O sagrado e o profano entram em debate acirrado. Enquanto a era da razão conquista seu espaço por meio do racionalismo, o mundo religioso se esforça para se reinventar e enfrentar um novo mundo com suas ideologias atraentes. Religião e ciência se aferram a seus espaços para delinearem seus limites, mas sempre contemplando e considerando um magistério em comum: a ciência moderna.

Essays on Development Policy and the Political Economy of Conflict

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

The determinants of firms' performance:can finance constraints improve technical efficiency?

This paper analyses the mechanisms through which binding finance constraints can induce debt-constrained firms to improve technical efficiency to guarantee positive profits. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of firms belonging to the Italian manufacturing. Technical efficiency scores are computed by estimating parametric production frontiers using the one stage approach as in Battese and Coelli [Battese, G., Coelli, T., 1995. A model for technical efficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics 20, 325-332]. The results support the hypothesis that a restriction in the availability of financial resources can affect positively efficiency. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Productivity change using growth accounting and frontier-based approaches:evidence from a Monte Carlo analysis

This study presents some quantitative evidence from a number of simulation experiments on the accuracy of the productivitygrowth estimates derived from growthaccounting (GA) and frontier-based methods (namely data envelopment analysis-, corrected ordinary least squares-, and stochastic frontier analysis-based malmquist indices) under various conditions. These include the presence of technical inefficiency, measurement error, misspecification of the production function (for the GA and parametric approaches) and increased input and price volatility from one period to the next. The study finds that the frontier-based methods usually outperform GA, but the overall performance varies by experiment. Parametric approaches generally perform best when there is no functional form misspecification, but their accuracy greatly diminishes otherwise. The results also show that the deterministic approaches perform adequately even under conditions of (modest) measurement error and when measurement error becomes larger, the accuracy of all approaches (including stochastic approaches) deteriorates rapidly, to the point that their estimates could be considered unreliable for policy purposes.

Public sector efficiency, foreign aid and small island development states

This paper examines the efficiency of public sector expenditures and foreign aid at achieving social sector outcomes in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Efficiency is estimated using a Stochastic Production Function (SPF) approach and panel data since 1990. A second stage of the analysis examines the determinants of efficiency. Results indicate that the efficiency of aid and public sectors at improving life expectancy has deteriorated during the 1990s but efficiency at improving school enrolments has increased. Higher levels of governance are associated with higher efficiency. There is also evidence to suggest that efficiency is lower in SIDS, as well as in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Trade marks and performance in UK firms:evidence of Schumpeterian competition through innovation

This paper uses novel data on trade mark activity of UK manufacturing and service sector firms to investigate whether trade marks improve the profitability and productivity of firms. We first analyse Tobin`s q, the ratio of stock market value to book value of tangible assets. We then investigate the relationship between trade mark activity and productivity, using a value added production function. Finally we examine interactions between firms IP activity, to explore creative destruction and growth via innovation. We find trade marks are positively related to both Tobin`s q and to productivity. Also in the short run greater IP activity by other firms in the industry reduces the value added of the firm, but this same competitive pressure has later benefits via productivity growth, also reflected in higher stock market value. This describes the Schumpeterian process of competition through innovation, restraining profit margins while increasing product variety and quality.