Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence - defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs - in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4-7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2-11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9-7·9) to 7·9% (6·4-9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

Genome-wide SNP genotyping highlights the role of natural selection in Plasmodium falciparum population divergence

Background: The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum exhibits abundant genetic diversity, and this diversity is key to its success as a pathogen. Previous efforts to study genetic diversity in P. falciparum have begun to elucidate the demographic history of the species, as well as patterns of population structure and patterns of linkage disequilibrium within its genome. Such studies will be greatly enhanced by new genomic tools and recent large-scale efforts to map genomic variation. To that end, we have developed a high throughput single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping platform for P. falciparum. Results: Using an Affymetrix 3,000 SNP assay array, we found roughly half the assays (1,638) yielded high quality, 100% accurate genotyping calls for both major and minor SNP alleles. Genotype data from 76 global isolates confirm significant genetic differentiation among continental populations and varying levels of SNP diversity and linkage disequilibrium according to geographic location and local epidemiological factors. We further discovered that nonsynonymous and silent (synonymous or noncoding) SNPs differ with respect to within-population diversity, interpopulation differentiation, and the degree to which allele frequencies are correlated between populations. Conclusions: The distinct population profile of nonsynonymous variants indicates that natural selection has a significant influence on genomic diversity in P. falciparum, and that many of these changes may reflect functional variants deserving of follow-up study. Our analysis demonstrates the potential for new high-throughput genotyping technologies to enhance studies of population structure, natural selection, and ultimately enable genome-wide association studies in P. falciparum to find genes underlying key phenotypic traits.

Role of noise in population dynamics cycles

Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

Tenure, mobility and retention of nurses in Queensland, Australia: 2001 and 2004

Aim. Data were collected on tenure, mobility and retention of the nursing workforce in Queensland to aid strategic planning by the Queensland Nurses Union (QNU). Background. Shortages of nurses negatively affect the health outcomes of patients. Population rise is increasing the demand for nurses in Queensland. The supply of nurses is affected by recruitment of new and returning nurses, retention of the existing workforce and mobility within institutions. Methods. A self-reporting, postal survey was undertaken by the QNU members from the major employment sectors of aged care, public acute and community health and private acute and community health. Results. Only 60% of nurses had been with their current employer more than 5 years. In contrast 90% had been in nursing for 5 years or more and most (80%) expected to remain in nursing for at least another 5 years. Breaks from nursing were common and part-time positions in the private and aged care sectors offered flexibility. Conclusion. The study demonstrated a mobile nursing workforce in Queensland although data on tenure and future time in nursing suggested that retention in the industry was high. Concern is expressed for replacement of an ageing nursing population.

Microsatellite allele sequencing in population analyses of the South American cactophilic species Drosophila antonietae (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

Drosophila antonietae belongs to the Drosophila buzzatii cluster, a cactophilic group of species naturally endemic to South America. Morphological and genetic analyses indicate that its populations are the most homogenous in the cluster and that the diversity observed is mainly a result of variation within populations. Seven polymorphic microsatellite loci were described for this species and used in the present study to investigate the genetic diversity of natural populations of D. antonietae by both length and sequence variation. The study aimed to understand how homoplasy and null alleles affect inferences about the population history of this species and to obtain an accurate interpretation of population inferences where these loci could be applied. The results provide useful information on the interpretation of genetic data derived from the microsatellite loci described for D. antonietae and on evolutionary aspects of cactophilic Drosophila. Importantly, the results indicate that size homoplasy and null alleles do not represent significant problems for the population genetics analyses because the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci compensate the low frequency of these problems in the populations. (C) 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 100, 573-584.

'Lots of little kindnesses': valuing the role of older Australians as informal volunteers in the community

This paper describes the ways in which older people contribute to their communities and families as informal volunteers. It challenges current ways of thinking that assign an economic value to the productive activities undertaken by older people. Using qualitative data from a study of older people resident in Queensland, Australia, the paper explores the ways that older people contribute to their families and to the community and the outcomes associated with these activities. Two specific themes emerged from the data: first, the ways' in which older people contribute to strong inter-generational relations, and second, how they provide essential mutual support that permits many older people to remain living in the community. These contributions, while often small in themselves, are in aggregate critical both to family functioning and to the maintenance of sustainable and healthy communities. Many are reciprocal interactions that add value to the lives of individuals and offer positive social roles in later life, and they may be particularly important for those from minority cultural backgrounds or at risk of social isolation. The findings suggest that older people are integral to community and civil society and, therefore, that social policy should respond to the ageing of Australia's population and recognise the positive contributions of older people, rather than emphasising the costs of demographic change.

Genetic population structure of the catadromous perciform: Macquaria novemaculeata (Percichthyidae)

Genetic population structure in the catadromous Australian bass Macquaria novemaculeata was investigated using samples from four locations spanning 600 km along the eastern Australian coastline. Both allozymes and mtDNA control region sequences were examined. Population subdivision estimates based on allozymes revealed low levels of population structuring (G(st)=0.043, P<0.05). However, mtDNA indicated moderate levels of geographic population structure (G(st)=0.146, P<0.01). Phylogenetic analysis of mtDNA control region sequences (mean sequence divergence 1.9%) indicated little phylogeographic structuring. Results suggested that genotypic variation within each river population, while bring affected primarily by genetic drift, was also prevented from more significant divergence by homogenizing levels of gene flow-synonymous with a one-dimensional stepping-stone model of population structure. The catadromous life history of Macquaria novemaculeata was considered to br influential on the pattern of population structure displayed. Results were compared to the few population genetic studies involving catadromous fishes, indicating that catadromy alone is unlikely to be a good predictor of population structure. A more comprehensive suite of biological characteristics than simple life-history traits must be considered fully to allow reliable predictive models of population structure to be formulated. (C) 1997 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Canine population dynamics: the potential effect of sterilization campaigns

Objective. To analyze, through mathematical modeling, the potential ability of sterilization campaigns to reduce the population density of pet dogs. Methods. Mathematical models were constructed to simulate the canine population dynamics and project the results of control strategies based on several sterilization rates. Results. Even at high sterilization rates (for example, 0.80 year(-1)), it would take approximately 5 years to reduce density by 20%. Even so, other sources of population growth, such as the importing of dogs from other geographic areas, could outweigh the effects of a sterilization program. Conclusions. A program`s effectiveness is contingent upon not only on the sterilization rate, but also the rate of population growth. Sterilization campaigns may potentially reduce population density, but this reduction may not be immediately evident.

Mechanisms of drought-induced population decline in an endangered wallaby

The bridled nailtail wallaby is restricted to one locality in central Queensland, Australia. The population declined severely during a major drought between 1991 and 1995. We investigated age-specific covariates of survival and proximate causes of mortality from 1994 to 1997, using mark-recapture and radio-tagging techniques at two study sites. Using a matrix population model, we also modelled the effect of drought on age-specific survival and the intrinsic rate of population increase,;,. The only significant covariate of survival for adults was a measure of health unrelated to drought. Rainfall, food, predator activity, year, sex and habitat were not associated with variation in adult survival. Juvenile survival was negatively affected by drought, and predation was the proximate cause of most juvenile deaths. The matrix projection model showed that the observed juvenile survivorship during the drought was low enough to have produced a population decline, although fecundity and survival of other age classes was high throughout the study. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

Isolation and characterization of nine microsatellite loci from the Hawaiian grouper Epinephelus quernus (Serranidae) for population genetic analyses

The availability of variable genetic markers for groupers (Serranidae) has generally been limited to mitochondrial DNA. For studies of population genetic structure, more loci are usually required; particularly useful are those that are nuclear in origin such as microsatellites. Here, we isolated and characterized 9 microsatellite loci from the endemic Hawaiian grouper Epinephelus quernus using a biotin-labeled oligonucleotide-streptavidin-coated magnetic bead approach. Of the 20 repeat-containing fragments isolated, 15 had sufficient flanking region in which to design primers. Among these, 9 produced consistent polymerase chain reaction product, and 6 were highly variable. These 6 loci were all composed of dinucleotide repeats, with the number of alleles ranging from 6 to 18, and heterozygosities from 33.3% to 91.7%. The high levels of variability observed should make these markers useful for population genetic studies of E. quernus, and potentially other epinephelines.

Ageing effects on the wettability behavior of laser textured silicon

In the present work we investigate the ageing of acid cleaned femtosecond laser textured < 100 > silicon surfaces. Changes in the surface structure and chemistry were analysed by Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), in order to explain the variation with time of the water contact angles of the laser textured surfaces. It is shown that highly hydrophobic silicon surfaces are obtained immediately after laser texturing and cleaning with acid solutions (water contact angle >120 degrees). However these surfaces are not stable and ageing leads to a decrease of the water contact angle which reaches a value of 80 degrees. XPS analysis of the surfaces shows that the growth of the native oxide layer is most probably responsible for this behavior. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drug therapy complexity: the importance of pharmacotherapeutic follow-up

Nowadays, the phenomenon of population ageing represents an worldwide problem, which assumes particular significance in Portugal. As they get older, individuals present more comorbidities and consequently consume an increasing number of drugs, which contributes to a growing drug therapy complexity. The institutionalized elders are particularly affected by this occurrence. Drug therapy complexity is defined as the conciliator of several characteristics of the pharmacotherapy and can affect patient’s safety and medication adherence. It can be measured with Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI). This study aims to determine the drug therapy complexity of institutionalized elders in order to assess the need of pharmacotherapeutic follow-up.

Survey of hearing disorders in an urban population in Rondonia, Northern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify the prevalence of hearing loss for the population in the urban area. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey based on the World Health Organization Ear and Hearing Disorders Survey Protocol was conducted in 298 households in the urban area of Monte Negro, Rondonia, Northern Brazil, from 2005 to 2007. Ear examinations, behavioral audiometry and pure tone audiometry were conducted on 577 individuals. RESULTS: The results showed that 3.8% (95%CI 2.17;5.45) of population were classified in the disabling hearing impairment category. The prevalence of moderate hearing impairment was 3.4%; severe impairment was 0.4%; and profound hearing impairment was not found. CONCLUSIONS: The impairing hearing loss prevalence found in this study is within of the international prevalence for this level of hearing loss and smaller than observed in a previous study in the South region of Brazil.

Genetic Control of Mosquitoes: population suppression strategies

Over the last two decades, morbidity and mortality from malaria and dengue fever among other pathogens are an increasing Public Health problem. The increase in the geographic distribution of vectors is accompanied by the emergence of viruses and diseases in new areas. There are insufficient specific therapeutic drugs available and there are no reliable vaccines for malaria or dengue, although some progress has been achieved, there is still a long way between its development and actual field use. Most mosquito control measures have failed to achieve their goals, mostly because of the mosquito's great reproductive capacity and genomic flexibility. Chemical control is increasingly restricted due to potential human toxicity, mortality in no target organisms, insecticide resistance, and other environmental impacts. Other strategies for mosquito control are desperately needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) is a species-specific and environmentally benign method for insect population suppression, it is based on mass rearing, radiation mediated sterilization, and release of a large number of male insects. Releasing of Insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL) offers a solution to many of the drawbacks of traditional SIT that have limited its application in mosquitoes while maintaining its environmentally friendly and species-specific utility. The self-limiting nature of sterile mosquitoes tends to make the issues related to field use of these somewhat less challenging than for self-spreading systems characteristic of population replacement strategies. They also are closer to field use, so might be appropriate to consider first. The prospect of genetic control methods against mosquito vectored human diseases is rapidly becoming a reality, many decisions will need to be made on a national, regional and international level regarding the biosafety, social, cultural and ethical aspects of the use and deployment of these vector control methods.